My Grain of Sand - The Watukushay FE Expert Advisor

 

Hello Everyone,

Many of you should know me from either my contributions to this forum, particularly the Newgrid EA, or from my website at Reviewing Everything Forex. Those of you who have accessed my web page or talked with me know that I am an expert advisor reviewer dedicated to the finding of what I call "long term profitable" expert advisors. I always design my trading systems to use sound trading and money management techniques and a very good degree of market adaptability. I have found through my experience that adapting experts' trading and position sizing to market conditions is a big part of the way towards expert advisors that can be used profitably and reliably for the long term. My objective has always been to program automated trading systems that I can trade without worrying about if they will or will not stop working in the long run. To achieve this I have always focused on the use of reliable trading strategies with careful programming and testing to achieve accurate backtesting and live/back testing consistency.

What I bring you today is my Christmas gift for 2009. I decided to program an EA as part of a project in my website I call "The Watukushay Project" and make it available for everyone, absolutely for free. The ea, called "Watukushay FE", is a trading system based on sound trading and money management which effectively adapts to varying market conditions through the analysis of market volatility. I am always looking to help my fellow traders and I thought that the best way in which I could help was to build a free, reliable, long term profitable EA that anyone could trade. I spent a lot of effort and analysis on the development of this EA and I hope you all enjoy its trading.

In order to make it available for everyone and not "forum specific", so to speak, I decided to make up a small website with the EA with all the guidelines necessary to trade the system. You can visit the Watukushay FE project website at Watukushay For Everyone. Please read the whole website and leave all you comments on this thread or on the project website

Of course, since it is a Christmas present, the EA will only be available to download from Dec. 25th at 1 a.m EST. I opened this thread earlier to pickup whatever suggestions you may have, or whatever questions you think should be answered on the page before the actual EA is launched. After it is launched we will be able to discuss the EA here in more depth.

Thanks to everyone here in advance for your interest

 

R u going to make the source n everything available so that we can modify as we wish?

 

I am not going to make the source available right away since I do not want people to sell the EA on other websites or things like that. However I will send the source on request to people who are interested on it for programming modifications or similar things. I want to keep track of which people have the source and what they do with it so that I can keep a record of the modifications that exist of the original EA. Long story short, I will send the source for free to the people who request it. Thank you for your interest

 

A Flaw

I have read some of your comments here and on your website and you seem like a very sincere, honest individual. I respect what you are trying to accomplish and your motivation. You are very skilled and have a generous and genuine wish to share with others.

I would like to point out something you may not have considered. I think Forex trading skill can only be acquired by doing the same thing over and over again until it becomes almost automatic. That way you gain the confidence to handle the small variations that happen and stick to a sensible plan.

I also believe that practising this skill must be done in a fairly short time frame so that you don't forget what you learned before. I think your WFE has one very serious flaw in this regard - it can only be done several times a month. It seems to me it will take a year or two to build up the necessary skill to use it. That is why I prefer to trade situations that happen several times every day and my learning only takes a month or two.

 

Thank you very much for your message. I am glad that you consider me an honest and sincere individual and that my wish to help fellow traders is appreciated

I think that you raise a very valid and interesting point. Certainly acquiring the skills needed to trade the market efficiently is a matter of practice and practice is much easier to get when the situations you are facing repeat themselves more often. That is totally true. The ability we, humans, have to learn from things that are repeated over and over in the short time frames with small variations is unique and that is definitely a good way to learn how to trade manually. Computers however have a hard time adjusting to these small variations because of the rigidity of their logic, which is a reason why it is very difficult to arrive at long term profitable systems that work in lower time frames ( lower than one hour), add the problems inherent to interpolation errors and such when using very small TP, SL, etc and you get an almost impossible chance of getting reliable simulations.

This problem of the long time needed for learning in the higher time frames is one of the reasons why the trading of these long term profitable systems is so hard. It takes a long time to get enough repetition of the trades and setups for the trader to get used to them but the time frames used must be high enough so that a computer can arrive at reproducible results. Therefore the computer does not trade often and the human trader takes a long time to learn how the system trades by observation, these ends up causing the majority of traders to stop trading these systems before they actually arrive at the long term profitable results. Of course, the solution is to watch the trades in simulations, review all live trades and develop an understanding of the system, an understanding that gives the confidence to trade the system.

Again, thank you very much CodeMeister for raising that point, you definitely make a very valid observation !

Thanks to everyone for their interest and participation... Also, the release date is close, only 4 days till Christmas

 

Thanks

Thank you for taking the time to answer my post and for doing it so promptly. I learned something new. I knew about the risk of trading the lower time frames and the sometimes unreliable setups but I never considered how that affected the writing of code for these time frames in quite the same way you did. I figured that the program would be riskier but that it could still be viable.

That gives me something to think about.

It seems to me that there is a solution to the writing simulations for the longer time frames and that is to find solutions that work for multiple pairs. I don't think every strategy is dependent on a single pair and there are some that will work on multiples, but not necessarily all pairs. But if you think your strategy can only work with the Euro, I won't argue that point.

 

The problem with using multiple pairs is related to the fact that each pair has a very particular behavior characteristic of the nature of the transactions involved between the two countries, the amount of speculators, the amount of investors, the amount of wire transfers, etc. Most of the time, trading systems designed to exploit a particular inefficiency in one currency will not work on the next, mainly because the inefficiency is generated by the particular behavior of that currency pair and not present in the others. Making a long term profitable system that works on a basket of currencies is very hard and is often only achievable on much higher time frames in which trading becomes similar amongst the different instruments. For example, the turtle trading system works on many currency pairs and trades on daily breakouts. It is often a mistake to assume that profitable trading system on one pair will have profitable results on all or some of the other ones. Thank very much Codemeister for your post and for triggering these interesting discussions !

 

Access to Watukushay FE is now enabled !! You can get it by accessing the ftp indicated at watukushayfe.blogspot.com inside the "Getting Watukushay FE" link. I hope you all enjoy my Christmas present ! Those of you who want the source code can PM me (please include the reason why you want the code, what you want to implement, etc and an email address I can send it to).

Thank you very much for your interest and ...

Merry Christmas !!

 

Hello Daniel,

I apologize if your ebook already answers my question. I do eventually plan to buy it. In order for your EA to work on a live account, I think you stated (see below) that it requires a broker that allows trading at a micro lot level. Is this correct? I was hoping to learn to use your Watukushay EA using MT4 with FXCM's demo account, but it won't allow me to trade in micro lots.

Here is the statement I am referring to from your blog-

"In order to trade this on a live account you need an account balance of at least 1000 USD and being able to trade down to a 0.01 lot size, any lower balance will not allow the correct trading of the EA on a standard account due to the lot size calculation which may require trading less than 0.01 lots on smaller accounts"

Thank you,

Hans

 

Hello Hans,

Thank you very much for your comment and interest. The problem is that you need to be able to trade at the 0.01 lot level in order for the money management to be able to calculate lot sizes appropiately if you are using an equity of 1000 USD. If you want to trade without using lots at that level but only lots to the 0.1 level, then you need to have an initial balance of 10,000 USD. It is always better to have a broker that allows to trade at the microlot level since it allows for a finner control over risk and of course, the trading of a lower amount of initial equity (1000 USD instead of 10,000 USD). There are many reputable brokers who will allow you to trade to the 0.01 lot level including Alpari UK/US, FXDD and IBFX. You can watch the EA on demo on any of those broker's mt4 platforms.

I hope this answers your question

Best Regards and Happy New Year,

 

Hello Everyone,

This week I will start live testing of Watukushay FE. I should receive the account details shortly and funding should be finished before Wednesday so expect to see the myfxbook widget on the expert's blog this week. Thank you very much for all your support and interest,

Best Regards,

Daniel