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AceTraderFx Apr 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Apr 2016 01:07GMT
USD/JPY- ...... Despite dlr's rebound after ratcheting lower from Thursday's Asian high of 112.66 to 112.11 in New York session, intra-day retreat from o/n New York high of 112.61 to 112.21 in Tokyo morning suggests directionless session inside near term established range of 112..02-112.68 would continue ahead of the release of important U.S. non-farm payrolls data in New York morning later today.
Market's focus today is surely on release of the US non-farm report as the Federal Reserve takes into account the health of the labour market in determining the timing of another interest rate hike. Market expects U.S. to have added 205K jobs to the economy in March compared to 242K the previous month. Having said that, investors should also pay attention to the release of U.S.'s average hourly earnings, unemployment rate as well as the Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing PMI which are scheduled to release later in NY morning at 13:45GMT n 14:00GMT respectively.
At present, offers are noted at 112.50-60 and then 112.80-90 with stops above there, whilst bids are noted at 112.20-10 and more around 112.00 with stops below there.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Apr 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Apr 2016 02:19GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Although euro continued its recent winning streak n rose to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 1.1412 in New York morning after data showed that inflation in euro zone improved in March, release of upbeat U.S. Chicago PMI knocked price down to 1.1375 later in New York session.
Euro retreated again after a brief gain to 1.1389 at Asian open and edged lower to 1.1373.
Today's focus for the single currency will be on the release of a slew of Manufacturing PMIs from Markit, a leading market research company, for euro zone n its member countries in European morning, theses includes Switzerland, France, Italy and Germany.
In addition, euro zone will release its unemployment rate for February at 09:00GMT.
At present, bids are reported at 1.1350-40 and then 1.1320-00 area with stops below there.
On the upside offers are noted at 1.1380-90 and then near 1.1400 with stops building above 1.1420.
Data to be released on Friday:
Australia AIG manufacturing index, Japan Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan large all industry Capex, Tankan small manufacturing index, Tankan small non-manufacturing index, Tankan small all industry Capex, manufacturing PMI, China non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, private payrolls, manufacturing payrolls, average earnings, participation rate, manufacturing PMI, construction spending, Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Canada RBC manufacturing PMI.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Apr 1: A Technical Recession In Japan's Economy Is Increasing
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
01 Apr 2016 03:04GMT
The Markit/Nikkei Final Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.1 in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, but unchanged from a preliminary reading and below the final 50.1 in February.
A latest business survey showed that Japan's manufacturing activity contracted in March is at the fastest pace in more than three years as new export orders shrank sharply, adding to fears on the world's third-largest economy is sliding back into recession.
The reading fell below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the first time since April last year, and contracted at the fastest pace since February 2013.
The sub-index for new export orders sank to 46.1, above the flash reading of 45.9 but still well below the 49.0 recorded in February.
New export orders contracted at the fastest since January 2013.
Factory output contracted, albeit mildly, for the first time since April 2015, after growth slowed sharply in February.
That has increased the chances that the economy is in a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in gross domestic product.
Japan's government is considering extra fiscal stimulus to pull the economy out of its funk, and there is a growing chance it will delay a sales tax hike scheduled for next year to ease the burden on domestic demand.
Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso speaking at a news conference after a cabinet meeting on Friday that the sentiment at some companies has turned cautious recently but on the whole firms remain confident about the economy's prospects and that the leading indicators show capital expenditure is rising, which is a positive sign that things are going well for corporate Japan.
But the confidence at big Japanese manufacturers worsened in the three months to March and is seen falling further ahead, a closely watched Bank of Japan survey showed on Friday.
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AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Apr 1: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 01 Apr 2016 08:09 GMT
USD/JPY - 112.32
Intra-day dollar's weakness to 112.06 due to active yen-buying on the back of weakness in the Nikkie suggests decline from this week's 113.80 peak to correct upmove from Mar's 16-month trough at 110.67 would resume, below 112.02 would pressure price to 111.87 (61.8% r), loss of momentum should keep price above 111.37.
Only a daily close above 112.68 (reaction high from 112.02) would risk stronger retracement of aforesaid fall to 113.15/25 before prospect of another decline next week.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Apr 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Apr 2016 09:16GMT
EUR/USD - ..... The single currency trades with a firm undertone as early release of upbeat German & EZ mfg PMIs prompted another wave of broad-based euro buying (eur/gbp climbed to fresh 14-month peak of 0.7965), suggesting re-test of yesterday's 5-month high at 1.1412 (New York) is on the cards where buy stops are reported above there.
Therefore, trading euro from the long side is recommended, however, do exit long positions ahead of key U.S. payrolls is recommended as the NFP had clocked up well above 225k in last 4 out of 5 months.
Another robust number (230K plus) may knock euro briefly to 1.1360/70 before buyers emerge.
For now, bids have been raised to 1.1390-80 and more below with stops below 1.1360. Offers are tipped at 1.4410/15 with stops above there.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Apr 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Apr 2016 02:16GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The Japanese yen gained broadly on Tue in Asia as data on wages suggested improvement (see our previous MMN). The pair came under renewed selling pressure after meeting selling interest at 111.36 ahead of Asian open and then fell below New York support at 111.10 to a session low of 110.86 after the Japan's jobs report.
Although dlr's intra-day weakness in Asia suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen, as investors are awaiting more clarity on the direction of rates in the U.S. in the release of minutes later this week, sharp decline below Mar's 16-mohth bottom at 110.67 is not likely to be seen and 110.00 (psychological support) should hold on 1st testing.
Today will see the release of U.S. service PMI by Markit and ISM non-manufacturing in New York morning.
At the moment, offers are noted at 111.10-20 and more at 111.30-40 with stops above 111.50, whilst on the downside, bids are reported at 110.70-60 and then at 110.50-30 region with stops below there.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Apr 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Apr 2016 02:50GMT
EUR/USD - ....... The single currency gained support at 1.1385 ahead of Asian open on Tuesday and climbed above 1.1400 level again, helped by the intra-day weakness in the greenback vs yen.
Apart from the the release of Markit's service PMI readings for Italy, France, Germany and euro zone in European morning today, investors should also pay attention to the release of Germany factory orders n euro zone's retail sales at 06:00GMT and 09:00GMT respectively.
At the moment, bids are reported at 1.1380-70 n then 1.1360-50 with stops below there.
On the upside, offers are noted at 1.1410-20 and more ahead of last Friday's 5-month peak at 1.1438 with stops located above 1.1450.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand business confidence, Australia AIG service index, imports, exports, trade balance RBA interest rate decision, Germany factory orders, Markit service PMI, Italy Markit service PMI, France Markit service PMI, Eurozone Markit service PMI, retail sales, U.K. Markit service PMI, retail sales, U.S. trade balance, Redbook, Markit service PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, jobs opening, economic optimism, Canada imports, exports and trade balance.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
BOJ Kuroda Is Keen ToFurtherExpand The Monetary Policy
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
05 Apr 2016 03:02GMT
Bank of Japan's Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament that the market moves would be key factors the central bank would examine in deciding when and how it might next expand stimulus and he stressed on his readiness to expand monetary policy still further.
Kuroda maintained his optimism that Japan's economy was recovering moderately, despite last week's "tankan" survey which showed business mood souring on weak emerging market demand. The yen's recent rises were among factors that led to a deterioration in big manufacturers' business sentiment in the central bank's quarterly "tankan" survey.
But he reiterated that BOJ's readiness to ease again if risks threatened prospects for accelerating inflation, which is now at a dead halt, toward its 2 percent target. Kuroda said BOJ would not hesitate to take action either by accelerating asset purchases, buying more risky assets or pushing interest rates deeper into negative territory.
Wile neither would the BOJ pre-determine on what steps it would take or how it could combine measures were it to ease again, Kuroda continued to say that developments in financial markets, as well as in the economy and in prices, would be key factors for the BOJ when deciding whether, when and how it would expand stimulus.
In January BOJ stunned markets on the negative interest rates, but the move has so far failed to boost stock prices or arrest an unwelcome rise in the yen.
Japan's business sentiment worsened in the three months to March and companies' inflation expectations weakened, keeping pressure on the central bank to do more.
Companies have also been reluctant to boost capital expenditure and wages, clouding the outlook for the success of premier Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" stimulus policies. While wages rose for the first time in four months in February but only at 0.4 percent from a year earlier.
Japan's economy shrank in October-December last year on weak exports and consumption. Many analysts expect it to show another contraction in January-March, posting two straight quarters of negative growth and meeting the technical definition of a recession.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Apr 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Apr 2016 09:31GMT
GBP/USD- ...... Britain's economy appears to have slowed since the start of this year as worries about the global economy, government spending cuts and a vote on staying in the European Union take their toll, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.
Financial data company Markit said its Purchasing Managers Index for services recovered only slightly last month after reaching its lowest in nearly three years in February.
Official data last week showed Britain's economy did slightly better than thought at the end of 2015, but the Markit figures, which economists use as a guide to future official numbers, suggest 2016 got off to a weak start.
Combined with sub-par readings for manufacturing and construction, Markit said its service PMI pointed to a fall in quarterly economic growth in the first three months of 2016 to 0.4 percent, from 0.6 percent in the final three months of 2015.
Britain's economy grew 2.3 percent last year. Government forecasters expect growth to slow to 2.0 percent in 2016.
Britain will hold a referendum on whether to leave the EU on June 23.
A poll of businesses on Monday showed the possibility of a vote in favour of leaving is causing companies to put investment plans on hold.
The weaker growth forecasts left finance minister George Osborne hunting for savings in last month's budget.
The Markit/CIPS services PMI - which covers the private-sector services that make up about 40 percent of Britain's economy - rose to 53.7 in March from February's near three-year low of 52.7, in line with economists' expectations.
Monday's construction PMI and Friday's survey of manufacturers were lacklustre, too.
The combined index for the three measures inched up to 53.7 in March from 52.9.
Services generated new business at the slowest rate since January 2013, and the readings for hiring and business expectations were among the weakest in the past three years.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Apr 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Apr 2016 02:11GMT
USD/JPY - ....... Although dlr tumbled to a fresh 17-month trough at 109.92 near New York midday on Tuesday after data showed that U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in February, short-covering emerged later in the day and lifted price to 110.55. Dlr then retreated to 110.23 in Australia before climbing marginally higher to 110.57 in Tokyo morning.
Today's focus for the market is surely on the release of FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT as investors are looking for more details behind the central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and clues on the timing of the next interest rate increase. Therefore, sharp gain or losses is not likely to be seen in Asian n European sessions.
At present, bids are noted at 110.20-10 and 110.00-109.90 with stops below 109.80.
On the upside, offers are reported at 110.60-70 and more at 110.80-90 with stops above 111.00.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
China services PMI, Japan leading economic index, coincident index, Germany industrial production, U.S. mortgage application and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates