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AceTraderFx Jun 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 29 Jun 2015 01:15 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1020
Euro's intra-day gap-down open to 1.0954 due to surprise news of Greek bailout referendum and EU's refusal to Greece's debt payment extension request suggests early erratic rise from 1.0819 (May's low) has ended earlier at 1.1440 and choppy trading with downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.0887 (June low), then towards May's bottom at 1.0819 (reaction low from 1.1467) later this week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1135 (previous support, now resistance) would indicate a temporary low has been made and yield stronger retracement towards 1.1200 but resistance at 1.1235 should remain intact.
AceTraderFx Jun 29: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jun 2015 02:05GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Although dlr gapped down to 122.74 at NZ open on Monday (Fri's closing price at 123.87) as worries over the fallout from the apparent collapse of debt talks with Greece fuelled caution and broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion pressured price to a fresh 1-month trough at 122.11, short-covering lifted price ahead of Asian open and dlr later climbed back above 123.00 level to 123.19 in Tokyo morning following the 'yen-negative' comments from BoJ's governor Kuroda before easing.
Expect fund flows to dominate the market until the release of U.S. pending homes sales (14:00GMT) in NY morning. Market estimates the U.S. pending home sales change to show another growth of 1.2% in May compare to the increase of 3.4% in preceding month, supporting by a gain in mortgage applications and new home sales.
At the moment, offers are noted at 123.50-60 and then 123.70/75 and 123.85/90 with stops building just above 124.00.
On the downside, bids are placed at 122.50-40 and more around 122.20 with stops emerging below 122.00.
This week will see the release of Japan's industrial output and retail sales, U.K. mortgage approvals and lending, euro zone business climate, consumer confidence, economic, industrial and services sentiment, German CPI, HICP, Canada's producer prices and U.S. pending home sales on Monday.
U.K. GfK consumer confidence, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, Australia's HIA new home sales, Japan's construction order and housing starts, Germany's retail sales, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany's unemployment rate, U.K. current account, GDP, inflation report hearings, Canada's GDP, U.S. Redbook, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Japan's Tankan, China's NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Australia's building approvals, private house approvals, Japan's manufacturing PMI, China's HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Germany's, eurozone and U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI respectively, U.S. ADP employment, Makit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.
U.K. BRC shop price index, Australia's trade balance, U.K. Nationwide house price and Markit construction PMI, eurozone producer prices, ECB monetary policy meeting, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, initial jobless claims, ISM, factory orders and durable goods on Thursday.
Australia's retail sales, China's HSBC services PMI, Germany's and U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales on Friday.
Market Review: Euro falls to a low of 1.1130 on Friday before rebound...
Market Review - 26/06/2015 20:29GMT
Euro falls to a low of 1.1130 on Friday before rebound awaiting weekend Greek talks
The single currency fell sharply from 1.1220 to as low as 1.1130 due to the deadlock over Greek deal, however, short-covering lifted the pair later as investors awaiting weekend Greek talks.
Greek finance minister Varoufakis said Saturday's Eurogroup will try to converge on a deal that includes debt, funding; Greece has made concessions, Athens rejects 5-month funding proposal from lenders; Greece proposed that ESM rescue fund could take over Greek debt held by ECB; won't deny Greek proposal contains recessionary measures but they are aimed at higher incomes; lenders reverted to tougher demands, six Eurogroup ministers said creditors' proposal was too soft on Greece and sees no reason we will not have a deal on Saturday.
Greek government official said Eurogroup have put harsh proposal on table, made clear Greece must respond in 24 hours; creditors' threats starting to ease after Greece's refusal to yield, this allows reason to prevail. German government officials said German government plans to increase spending by 3.4 pct y/y to 312.0 billion euro in 2016; German government to refrain from net new borrowing in the years up until 2019.
The British pound traded in sideways manner in Asia and briefly retreated to 1.5720 in early European morning before rising to session high at 1.5767 in Europe. However, renewed selling below Thursday's high at 1.5770 capped intra-day gains and price dropped to session low at 1.5708 in New York morning. Later, cable pared its losses and swiftly rebounded to 1.5761 on active cross-buying of sterling versus euro.
The greenback fell initially to 123.23 in Asia due to active cross buyng in Japanese yen due to the decline in Nikkei-225 index, however, short-covering lifted the pair. Dollar later rallied to as high as 123.98/99 due to the rise in U.S. stock markets.
This weekwill see the release of Japan's industrial output and retail sales, U.K. mortgage approvals and lending, eurozone business climate, consumer confidence, economic, industrial and services sentiment, German CPI, HICP, Canada's producer prices and U.S. pending home sales on Monday.
U.K. GfK consumer confidence, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, Australia's HIA new home sales, Japan's construction order and housing starts, Germany's retail sales, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany's unemployment rate, U.K. current account, GDP, inflation report hearings, Canada's GDP, U.S. Redbook, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Japan's Tankan, China's NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Australia's building approvals, private house approvals, Japan's manufacturing PMI, China's HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Germany's, eurozone and U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI respectively, U.S. ADP employment, Makit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.
U.K. BRC shop price index, Australia's trade balance, U.K. Nationwide house price and Markit construction PMI, eurozone producer prices, ECB monetary policy meeting, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, initial jobless claims, ISM, factory orders and durable goods on Thursday.
Australia's retail sales, China's HSBC services PMI, Germany's and U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales on Friday.
AceTraderFx Jun 29: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jun 2015 07:45GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Although euro fell to a fresh near 3-1/2-week trough at 1.0955 in NZ as concerns over a potential Greek default boosted demand for the safe-haven greenback, price rebounded to 1.1032 in Asia on short-covering and then rallied to 1.1112 in European morning in part due to cross-buying in euro before easing.
At present, bids are reported at 1.1020-10 and then 1.0990-80 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.0950-40.
On the upside, offers from various accounts are tipped at 1.1120-30 with mixture of offers and stops at 1.1150-60.
AceTraderFx Jun 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 29 Jun 2015 09:05 GMT
USD/JPY - 122.90
Despite dollar's intra-day resumption of decline from June's near 13-year peak at 125.86 to a fresh 1-month trough at 122.10 in New Zealand due to risk aversion buying in yen, subsequent intra-day rebound to 123.19 in Asia signals a temporary low has been made and stronger retracement is envisaged after consolidation.
However, resistance at 123.96 should hold and bring retreat later.
Below 122.10 would extend aforesaid fall to retrace long-term uptrend to 122.03 (March's top) and then 121.49 before prospect of a rebound.
AceTraderFx Jun 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 30 Jun 2015 01:36 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1196
Despite euro's gap-down open to a near 1-month low of 1.0955 on Monday due to heightening fear of a Grexit, subsequent rally to 1.1142 in Europe, then to 1.1279 in New York on 'active' short covering especially versus USD, YEN and GBP signals decline from June's peak at 1.1440 has made a low there and stronger retracement towards 1.1347 (80.9% r) is envisaged later this week.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1112 (previous resistance, now support) would shift risk to downside for weakness towards 1.0955 again.
AceTraderFx Jun 30: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
30 Jun 2015 03:09GMT
GBP/USD - ..... Cable showed muted reaction to early release of upbeat U.K. consumer confidence. Reuters reported British consumer morale surged to its highest in over 15 years this month as shoppers said they were ready to spend, a survey showed on Tuesday, adding to signs that growth is picking up after a weak start to the year.
Although cable rebounded in tandem with euro on Monday and ratcheted higher from a 2-week trough at 1.5645 (NZ) to 1.5789 near European close, active cross-selling in sterling especially vs euro knocked price down to 1.5720.
Later, cable briefly rebounded to 1.5762and then moved in a relatively narrow range of 1.5722-1.5733 in NY afternoon and as well as in Asian morning on Tuesday.
If the actual readings of the UK GDP are higher than forecasts, then we may see a boost higher in the British pound across the board and therefore, buying cable on intra-day dips is recommended.
At present, bids are noted at 1.5700-1.5690 and more around 1.5670 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.5650-40.
On the upside, offers are reported at 1.5745/50, 1.5760-70 and then 1.5785/90 with stops building up just above 1.5800.
Tuesday will see the release of U.K. GfK consumer confidence, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, Australia's HIA new home sales, Japan's construction order and housing starts, Germany's retail sales, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany's unemployment rate, U.K. current account, GDP, inflation report hearings, Canada's GDP, U.S. Redbook, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Jun 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 30 Jun 2015 08:08 GMT
USD/JPY - 122.23
Dollar's intra-day breach of Monday's fresh 1-month trough at 122.10 to 122.05 in European morning signals decline from June's near 13-year peak at 125.86 has resumed and further weakness to 121.40/50 and then 121.00/10 would be seen, however, near term loss of momentum should keep price above 120.84 (previous res, now support) and yield rebound later this week.
On the upside, only a move back above 123.19/23 would signal a low has been made and yield subsequent gain to 123.99.
AceTraderFx Jun 30: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
30 Jun 2015 08:42GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Although cable edged lower in tandem with euro and fell from Asian high of 1.5737 to 1.5693 in European morning, price briefly jumped to 1.5745 after release of upbeat yearly revision of UK Q1 GDP and narrower-than-expected trade deficit.
However, lack of follow-through buying capped gain there and price then settled around 1.5720.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday that UK GDP expanded at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.4% in the first quarter, up from a previous estimate of 0.3% and in line with expectations.
Annualized GDP grew at a rate of 2.9% in the first quarter, up from an initial forecast of 2.4% and beating expectations for a 2.5% increase.
In a separate report, ONS said that the U.K. current account recorded a seasonally adjusted deficit of 26.5 bln pounds in the first quarter, narrowing from a deficit of 28.9 bln in the fourth quarter, whose figure was revised from a deficit of 25.3 bln pounds.
AceTraderFx Jul 2: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 02 Jul 2015 01:21 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1045
Euro's selloff after a brief rebound from 1.1095 to 1.1171 in Europe and then subsequent breach of Tuesday's low at 1.1113 signals correction from Monday's near 1-month trough at 1.0955 has ended the same day at 1.1279 and consolidation with downside bias remains.
However, only a breach of said support would confirm decline from June's peak at 1.1440 has resumed and extend weakness to 1.0900/10 later.
Above 1.1110/13 would prolong choppy trading but resistance at 1.1171 should remain intact.