Intraday trading signal - page 165
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AceTraderFx Jun 3: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 03 Jun 2015 08:07 GMT
USD/JPY - 124.12
Dollar's stronger retreat from a fresh 12-1/2 year peak at 125.07 to 123.75 on Tuesday signals long-term uptrend has made a temporary top there and a few days of choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen.
Below 123.75 would bring stronger retracement to 123.50/61 support area and then 123.33 (previous resistance) but reckon support at 122.78 would remain intact.
Above 125.07 would revive bullishness and extend uptrend from 2011 record low at 75.32 towards 125.74 (2002 Dec top).
AceTraderFx Jun 3: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jun 2015 09:53GMT
GBP/USD- ....... Cable fell exactly one and a quarter cents from its intra-day 1.5375 high after release of a surprise downbeat key U.K. services PMI. Reuters reported sterling tumbled against the dollar on Wednesday after a survey of the British service sector came in sharply below forecasts, pointing to another subdued round of overall economic growth in the 2nd quarter.
The slowdown from April in the single biggest piece of Britain's economy was the fastest in nearly 4 years and, combined with a weak manufacturing survey and a bounce in construction, suggested growth across the 3 sectors combined in May was the lowest since Dec.
There are broader question marks over growth ahead. The euro zone is still struggling to pull out of five years of debt-driven turmoil, Britain's newly-elected Conservative gov't has promised sharp cuts in public spending to reduce the budget deficit, n outside investors may be given pause for thought by a planned referendum on U.K.'s membership of the EU.
That, and a dip in growth in the 1st quarter, has pushed back expectations for a first rise in UK interest rates well into next year, weakening the case for the pound to be one of a few currencies to appreciate in broader terms along with the usd.
The BoE starts a 2-day meeting on interest rates on Wed but is expected to add nothing to the debate for now. After a brief jump following the elections on May 7, the pound is now bang in the middle of this year's ranges and around 6 cents above lows against the dlr hit in Mar n Apr.
AceTraderFx Jun 4: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 04 Jun 2015 01:05 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1265
Euro's rally above Tuesday's high of 1.1195 (now support) to a fresh 2-week high of 1.1285 in New York on Tuesday suggests the 3-legged fall from May's 3-month peak at 1.1467 has possibly ended last week at 1.0819 and consolidation with upside bias remains.
However, a daily close above 1.1392 is needed to confirm this view and bring re-test of said resistance later.
Below 1.1079 (yesterday's low in New York morning) would indicate a top is made instead and shift risk to downside for weakness to 1.1006 and then 1.0940/50.
AceTraderFx Jun 4: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 Jun 2015 07:05GMT
EUR/USD- ..... Despite yesterday's ferocious rally to a 2-week high of 1.1285 in NY morning after 10-year German Bund yields staged its sharpest 2-day rise since 1998, euro pared yesterday's gain as intra-day Bund yields eased, currently 0.899% vs Wednesday's high of 0.954% (intra-day traders are advised to follow short-term interest rate swings).
The single currency fell from Asian high at 1.1276 to 1.1235 in early European trading after tripping stops below 1.1240, current softness suggests choppy trading with downside bias remains.
As yesterday's rally was partly driven by heavy stoploss-buying, not a lot of bids are noted, a mixture of buying interest and stops is reported at 1.1195-85, below there would spark more technical selling.
Offers are seen at 1.1250-60 and more above with stops touted above 1.1300.
After a slew of heavy EZ eco. data in last few days, no European data are due out today but Jean-Claude Juncker, President of European Commission, is due to make a speech at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 4: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 04 Jun 2015 08:51 GMT
USD/JPY - 123.95
Dollar's retreat after yesterday's intra-day rebound from 123.80 to 124.68 suggests further choppy trading below Tuesday's fresh 12-1/2 year peak at 125.07 would be seen.
However, as long as 123.75 (reaction low from 125.07) holds, mild upside bias remains for long-term uptrend from 2011 record low at 75.32 to resume and yield marginal gain later.
On the downside, only a daily close below 123.33 (previous resistance, now support) would confirm a temporary top is made and shift risk to downside for further weakness to 122.78.
AceTraderFx Jun 4: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
04 Jun 2015 07:56GMT
GBP/USD- ....... Although cable dropped briefly to 1.5304 in European morning due partly to cross-selling in sterling vs yen and then release of downbeat UK housing reports, investors were reluctant to push price lower ahead of the release of BoE's monetary policy decision later in European midday (11:00GMT) and price rebounded to 1.5337 in tandem with euro before easing.
Lloyds Banking Group's Halifax division showed earlier on Thursday that UK house prices dropped for the first time in three months in May.
UK house prices edged down by 0.1% month-on-month in May, reversing April's 1.6% increase.
Year-on-year, house prices in UK grew 8.6% in 3 months to May compared to 8.5% in 3 months ended April.
Similar to previous update, bids are reported at 1.5310-1.5300, 1.5290-80 and then 1.5270/75 with stops building up below 1.5250.
On the upside, offers are noted at 1.5360-70 and around 1.5380 with a mixture of offers and stops at 1.5400-10.
AceTraderFx Jun 5: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOKUpdate Time: 05 Jun 2015 01:16 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1208
Euro's sell off after a brief rally to a fresh 2-1/2 week peak at 1.1380 in Europe on Thursday and then subsequent fall below of 1.1195 (previous res) signals upmove from last week's bottom at 1.0819 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias would be seen.
However, reckon daily support at 1.1079 would contain weakness and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.1380 would retain bullishness for stronger gain towards May's 3-month peak at 1.1467.
AceTraderFx Jun 5: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
05 Jun 2015 02:01GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Dlr went through a 'roller-coaster' session on Thursday as despite an initial fall from Asian high of 124.57 to 123.79 in European morning, renewed buying above Tuesday's low at 123.75 together with selling in yen cross lifted price and dlr later rallied to 124.68 in NY morning following the release of upbeat jobs data (weekly jobless claims and unit labour cost) and intra-day sell off in eur/usd pair before retreating.
As price has rebounded after meeting renewed buying at 124.23 in NY afternoon, suggesting consolidation with upside bias would be seen ahead of the release of important U.S. non-farm payroll report and unemployment rate in NY morning and buying the usd/jpy pair on dips is recommended in Asia and early European sessions.
Street forecasts are looking for US economy to add 220K jobs in May compared to 223K in April.
If data come in as per expectation, it may help to cement expectations the Fed will start raising interest rates come September and give dlr a boost towards Tuesday's fresh 12-1/2 year peak at 125.07.
Later in NY session, investors should pay attention to the speech from since New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at 16:30GMT in Minneapolis. He will speak on the economy and take questions from the Economic Club of Minneapolis. Dudley's views are seen as closely aligned with those of Fed Chair Yellen.
Fridaywill see the release of Japan's leading indicator, Germany's factory orders, U.K. consumer inflation expectations, eurozone revised GDP, U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, Canada's employment change, labour productivity rate.
AceTraderFx Jun 5: IIntra-day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
05 Jun 2015 06:30GMT
EUR/USD- ...... Bundesbank Chief Weidmann says 'key factor behind subdued inflation outlook is sharp drop in crude oil prices; growing labour mkt shortages are supply-side risk to growth and could lead to increased price pressures; foreign trade hampered by dampening global dynamics but also buoyed by euro's depreciation and strengthening cyclical recovery in eurozone.'
Earlier it was reported that Greece's leftist-led government may call early elections if the country's international lenders do not soften their terms for a cash-for-reforms deal, suggested by the Deputy Social Security Minister Dimitris Stratoulis, a hardliner in the gov't.
"The lenders want to impose hard measures. If they do not back down from this package of blackmail the gov't ... will have to seek alternative solutions, elections," he said.
Stratoulis is closer to the far-left faction of the ruling Syriza party, and it was not unclear if the statement represented a wider view within the party. But it underlined the deep anger at the proposal from lenders and a growing sense that the party will seek alternatives to avoid accepting the plan.
Greece delayed a key debt payment to the IMF due on Friday as PM Alexis Tsipras, facing fury among his leftist supporters, demanded changes to tough terms from international creditors for aid to stave off default.
AceTraderFx Jun 5: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time:05 Jun 2015 08:00 GMT
USD/JPY - 124.70
Although dollar's rebound from yesterday's low at 123.79 suggests further choppy trading inside this week's broad range of 125.07-123.75 would continue and with mild upside bias, break of said 12-1/2 year peak at 125.07 needed to confirm long-term uptrend has resumed and bring further gain to next upside target at 125.74 (2002 Dec top).
On the downside, only below 123.61 would confirm a temporary top is made and shift risk to downside for weakness to 123.33 and then 122.78 next week.