School of Pimpology - page 160
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Barclays Capital say Oil $17-25 per barrel
Watch this video, interesting, includes crude chart analysis of DOW and Oil & some currency analysis:
Charts Predict: Oil Heading towards $17 - Economy * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com
You are right Paul, I might have to keep trading!
Nicola
The Soothsayers
Dear Pipsters,
An interesting but crazy day. I did not trade yesterday as it was US holiday, thinking low volumes. Mistake 1. This morning after winding up the charts thought, everything gone miles need a pullback. Mistake 2. Thought I was beginning to see the sense of the moves and spot the retracements. Mistake 3.
It was not all doom and gloom. I did take WTI lower this morning +55 pips. Had a spot of WTI this afternoon long to the MP +80 pips. In the middle of that I snaffled +31 pips on FTSE short.
The crap fest was me trying to be cheeky and take EU long got pipped out once for -15 pips and the second time at b/e when I was up 50 pips. Idiot; in a volatile market take your pips and run. I also tried anothe anti-strategy move by going long ftse to be stopped out again also for -15 pips. Given the moves I'd missed I was pleased with the outcome.
Well done Nicola on your very impressive trading and in particular your reading of Oil.
Me myself I have stopped listening to the soothsayers and playing my charts. If the world is hiring large ships to store oil, the price at the refineries is rising and futures contracts are also rising, and oil producers are cutting production we shall have a price squeeze at some point. Until then I am interested in oil to $25 only if I am short and back to $200 when I am long. I think JFK is still alive and he and Elvis share a condo on Richard Bransons private island, where they knit socks for the poor children of Africa. The Martians have landed and the price of gold will rise only because we shall start using it as a cure for baldness and obesity and China will decide to only use soya bean oil to protect the environment. In a crazy world you can be sure of The Soothsayers.......coming to all good bookstores near you. Advance copies please send large and full pip tins to me......to cover post and packing.
Now where was I................
Hallucinations Rockie
Trade Trade Trade
Thanks Bill, indeed you had the same problem with over trading,.
Seems you do better now so there is still a chance to survive for me..
hans..Hans,
For me I think you need to slow down and take it nice and easy. Less is most definitely more. Try to find a couple of decent trades per session and let them breathe. I think you will most definitely get more pips that way and ultimately have a much calmer day.
May the pips be with you,
Calmer Rockie
Sorry its late
Bonjour fellow piphunters,
Overall pips score for 2009
week 1 : 845 pips + and 1431 pips - in 62 trades result - 586
week 2 : 872 pips + and 892 pips - in 58 trades result - 20
Would be very interesting to see some more weekly results in the same format as above..??
simply: winning pips/losing pips/number of trades
hans..Hi Hans,
Sorry its taken me a while but heres my week 1 results (remeber I can only trade one week in two) in your 'easy read' format:
week 1 : 561 pips + and 311 - pips in 25 trades results +251
My initial calculation of the number of pips made or lost on each trade is to take the opening price of the trade away from the closing price. Totalling my total winners and total losers shows me that overall I am up 251 pips. 50 pips below my weekly target but not too bad.
What I couldn't understand though, was why my account balance (in money terms) was about the same at the end of the week as it was at the start, the reason I think now, is money management
If you get a 100 pip move, of which you take half of your profit at the 100 pips and set your stop to breakeven (which is then hit) you have only really made 50 pips. If you then get two 25 pip losers, your net haul (for those three trades) is a big fat zero. Therefore to calculate your winners and losers properly, in terms of pips, you have to allow for the stake. Adjusting my calculation in this way explains the lack of movement in money terms on my account
week 1 : 158 pips + and 155 - pips in 25 trades results +3
As you can see, all of my losers were at 50p a pip (311 pips X 50p = 155 pips in money terms), but my winners were at 28p on average
So, what are my lessons from this analysis to put into practice next week?
Firstly the number of trades and the performance of them (5 losers out of 25 trades is 80% win rate) looks reasonable to me, so I'm not going to change my trade set up selection criteria. The 250 (full stake equivalent) pips is only 50 pips short of my weekly target. What I need to do is improve the average pip value of my winning trades and be much firmer with the implementation of stops for losers. Next week I will:
1. Take a larger percentage of a winning trade of at the 50 pip level (I'm going to go with 80%, ie 40p of my 50p stake), so that the remaining 20% can go on to the 100 pip level, or fall back to hit breakeven
2. Always have a hard stop in place, at the time of placing the order, 50 pips away from my entry level. If the ma's suggest that 50 points is insufficient I won't take the trade. (I allowed two to go to 100 pips losers last week). It may be that the trade set up is actually good, but by not entering when the required stop is over 50 pips, you can actually hit a better entry level by waiting - I think that Nicola's oil trade late Friday 16th shows how this can sometimes be the case - or waiting may in fact indicate that the price is going in the opposite direction to that anticipated from the set up. Of course, sometimes it will fly off in the anticipated direction and I wont be in it, but as reading this thread proves, there will always be another set up to trade just around the corner
Nice to see that even the mighty 'pip'drive can get one or too wrong sometimes too, thanks for sharing Rockie!
Paul
Crazy day
Hello Pipsters
Started my day up with short WTI short OIL and short GBPJPY which was nice.
I took the Gold short and stubbornly kept it until I was stopped out -60 pips. I have never had a profitable Gold trade. I should have realised it would go up if the markets were falling.
Lost some more when I was stopped out on OIL / WTI as it powered up on the rocket that Rockdrive caught, but managed to short it off the top and get my pips back and some in the NY afternoon. Funny how everything fell off after Obama stopped speaking.
BIG Thanks to Zia, at the end of the NY day when I thought Sterling could go no lower and had to retrace, he lured me into some pound shorts that added to the haul.
I think I overtraded today. I added up 11 hours in front of the screen. I might take Friday off.
My tally in chronological order:
GBPJPY +104
WTI +75
OIL +72
Gold -60
OIL -50
WTI -50
OIL +130 (still in short from 45.09)
WTI +163 (still in short from 42.53)
GBPJPY +120
GBPUSD +105
11 hrs / 10 trades / 70% success rate / +609 pips
Pipsy Galore
Hi
Hi Guys,
looks like a lot of you having some fun on here. Happy days!
It's great to see most of you have discipline and are working hard to improve on the understanding of the strategy. Hat's off to all of you. It seems the majority are making money.
Since I am not really posting trading ideas much these days, and most of the strategy is on here, perhaps you'd be kind enough to allow me back for a little laugh and a joke sometimes?
I will of course be available for questions and as of February I will have an additional few hours a day on my hands where we could implement that into something constructive, so any ideas are welcome.
Thanks for the continued support by all of you
The Scarlet Pimpinel Returns
Hi Guys,
looks like a lot of you having some fun on here. Happy days!
It's great to see most of you have discipline and are working hard to improve on the understanding of the strategy. Hat's off to all of you. It seems the majority are making money.
Since I am not really posting trading ideas much these days, and most of the strategy is on here, perhaps you'd be kind enough to allow me back for a little laugh and a joke sometimes?
I will of course be available for questions and as of February I will have an additional few hours a day on my hands where we could implement that into something constructive, so any ideas are welcome.
Thanks for the continued support by all of youLe Pimp,
Nice to have you back. Hopefully, we have been doing justice to your teachings and sharing ideas here like I know you had hoped. Great to catch you here again and look forward to more of the 'bigman' in due course.
Pipsters I come with tail between my legs and tales of KHT's. It started this morning (see chart). Instead of waiting for WTI to break the earlier low I jumped in at 40.47. Watched the price action lift and head towards WP. Instead of panicking I thought "this is just a retracement" so I waited patiently and got another (added too) short position. So I now have effectively 2 short positions in WTI. Note the cross at 41.50. Thats where my s/l was hit so a combined trading loss of -138 pips. Ouch! Why is it a KHT? Two reasons; 1. I did not wait for break of previous low to go short and 2. because I did not wait for a red candle at WP to short again. Lesson learnt yes - well until the next time.
As I had just been badly burnt and not to leave the arena without getting some pips I piled in Gold short and WTI short again!! Gold was a double top formation. My entry 861.7 and stop at 864.7. WTI was short 41.37 and s/l at 42.00. I then went on my spin cycle for 60 mins. Gold got to within 2 pips of my stop. Thanks GFT for not taking me out!! I ended up with +114 pips from that aggressive winner takes all trade. If there had been any justice I should have been stopped out. Why, because it was the right trade at the wrong time. Luck. The WTI trade came and went and frankly I should have got out when the price broke the WP but was thinking revenge. Managed to close out the trade for -18.
My only real and decent trade was GBPCHF. I went long off what I saw as a 15m double bottom. My entry was 15710 which was a bit slow off the mark and meant my s/l was bigger than I wanted at 15660. It came good and I finally got pipped out on my stop at WS-2 15845, a lovely 135 pips. Shame was because I was calmer and not thinking revenge it was a half stake trade. I know they all count but nonetheless it would have been nice.
I was on skype with some mates having come back from lunch. Said to one I really think GBPJPY could be a short. I was looking at 15m chart, and the price heading to this mornings trend break (about 124.85). No sooner had I switched to the 5m chart thinking about an entry when there was a 60 pip candle and then next candle the price had gone. Could I have jumped in? Maybe, but the sensible me was back in control so I just watched the price tumble to D-S2 about 500 pips lower! Hopefully some of you pipsters managed to get on board for the ride, and if you did well done.
To close out, my day was one of two literal halfs. I have closed with +93 pips. Not stellar but after puncturing my pip tin this morning and haemoraging pips it feels like a nice total to finish with.
Lesson - don't jump in to trades especially with the beast and then compound your error by being to arrogant or stupid to cut the trade.
A special thanks to Honest Bill - he knows why. Thanks Bill for reminding me about trading the strategy. It is much appreciated.
Have a great evening pipsters.
Looking forward to a solid day tomorrow.
Gungho Rockie
What a day
What an ugly spiky day in OIL.
Still holding my oil shorts from yesterday which are around the same level as last night after some scary spikes up. Glad I was not trying to get in today as I would probably have lost the farm with my reluctance to get out of trades timely.
The options expiry was crazy for the yens. I thought I did well this morning but then the GBPJPY fell off the 1hr 20ma and I jumped on because I thought it would get me 50 pips. Boy did it fall off a cliff ... Poor Sterling
When there is nothing doing in Crude GBPJPY is my favourite to watch.
AUDUSD short -30 (yes I still hate Gold)
GBPJPY short +110 (the lovely drop first thing this morning)
GBPUSD +105 (first thing this morning)
GBPJPY +337 (the yen rules)
Nicola
Might get into USDJPY later on a 123, waiting to see
Cable is toast
Cable just breached the very old (1985 I think) 1.3681 level.
All bets are off now ...
Charts
What an ugly spiky day in OIL.
Still holding my oil shorts from yesterday which are around the same level as last night after some scary spikes up. Glad I was not trying to get in today as I would probably have lost the farm with my reluctance to get out of trades timely.
The options expiry was crazy for the yens. I thought I did well this morning but then the GBPJPY fell off the 1hr 20ma and I jumped on because I thought it would get me 50 pips. Boy did it fall off a cliff ... Poor Sterling
When there is nothing doing in Crude GBPJPY is my favourite to watch.
AUDUSD short -30 (yes I still hate Gold)
GBPJPY short +110 (the lovely drop first thing this morning)
GBPUSD +105 (first thing this morning)
GBPJPY +337 (the yen rules)
Nicola
Might get into USDJPY later on a 123, waiting to seeHi,
Have been trying to learn this system and feel I (and probably others) would really benefit from some more charts if possible.
So, in an effort to accelerate the learning curve, would that be possible? Could you please post more charts explaining you entries.
Thanks,