The ideal timeseries to trade - page 4
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It's always great to read people with strong opinions' posts, but don't get too worked up about the fact that you and I have a different way of trading.
I know everyone has his idiosyncracies, and openmindedness is not a gift given to all of us but you can at least try.
Also, if you don't like the thread, go to another one. No need to start furious battles about right and wrong.========================================================
actually, i dont believe we have a "different way of trading" as we have a different way of looking at it --- I have taught trading for many a year and only recently realize that if one were to put a title to the way i teach, it would be "REALITY TRADING, since it is based on the "realities" of how the markets move and who moves them, not to forget at what "times" they move it !
for all the years of trading, i had to maintain an "openmindedness" or I would have never survived this long, but one reaches a point in life where all that went before forms an opinion, and when that opinion is backed up by the rest of the pros in this world, then one sticks with it !
No where am i starting a "furious battle", but simply being a dutch uncle with a lot of confirmed experiences who is simply pointing out where some thoughts may be going astray --- considering my background, you would do well to think with a more open mind in this situation.
Trading is SO simple once you understand what is going on that i alternate between laughing and crying at what I hear being brought forth on so many boards, and my joy becomes wonderous when i meet those pros who already KNOW the answers.
Its not that youre wrong, per se, BUT rather that your putting the cart before the horse (as i stated) and some day you will realize that and profit from it !
my posts are to offer you insight into realities you have only begun to touch on, to stimulate you further in your thoughts and NOT to wage warefare, of which i am little interested !
I would love to teach kindergarten, as stated, but I run a NYS registered financial holding company, two trust funds and am just beginning a new fund so my time is a bit taken up and to be honest, I simply cannot handle starting from "scratch" with each newb, each day !
Ive said my piece -- i guarantee you will find the truth down the road if you stick with trading, and maybe you will say one day, "oh yeah, didnt he say that ?"
enjoy and trade well
mp
========================================================
actually, i dont believe we have a "different way of trading" as we have a different way of looking at it --- I have taught trading for many a year and only recently realize that if one were to put a title to the way i teach, it would be "REALITY TRADING, since it is based on the "realities" of how the markets move and who moves them, not to forget at what "times" they move it !
for all the years of trading, i had to maintain an "openmindedness" or I would have never survived this long, but one reaches a point in life where all that went before forms an opinion, and when that opinion is backed up by the rest of the pros in this world, then one sticks with it !
No where am i starting a "furious battle", but simply being a dutch uncle with a lot of confirmed experiences who is simply pointing out where some thoughts may be going astray --- considering my background, you would do well to think with a more open mind in this situation.
Trading is SO simple once you understand what is going on that i alternate between laughing and crying at what I hear being brought forth on so many boards, and my joy becomes wonderous when i meet those pros who already KNOW the answers.
Its not that youre wrong, per se, BUT rather that your putting the cart before the horse (as i stated) and some day you will realize that and profit from it !
my posts are to offer you insight into realities you have only begun to touch on, to stimulate you further in your thoughts and NOT to wage warefare, of which i am little interested !
I would love to teach kindergarten, as stated, but I run a NYS registered financial holding company, two trust funds and am just beginning a new fund so my time is a bit taken up and to be honest, I simply cannot handle starting from "scratch" with each newb, each day !
Ive said my piece -- i guarantee you will find the truth down the road if you stick with trading, and maybe you will say one day, "oh yeah, didnt he say that ?"
enjoy and trade well
mpM.P.
Any chance you'll pass on some of that wisdom in the near future so a not-so-new-bie? Feeling like I'm at the brink of profound understanding or the "AH-HA" moment.
P.S.
Sent you a P.M. but not sure if you received it.
we're done arguing about this
we're done arguing about this
=================================================
Im happy !
for ease of trading, maximizing pippage and an all around jolly good time, a nice and smooth H4, 5th wave run is almost as satisfying as a long canter on a gelded palomino for an 18 year old young woman !
to increase your chances at finding these little darlings, create a Heiken Ashi DAILY chart and throw your favorite pairs onto it --- when you find the one with a gorgeous trend, with small candle range and very symetrical, fall in love with it and bring it gifts --- she will reward you with many a peaceful night (or the other way around, should you wish it !)
lately, USDCAD, EURGBP, EURCAD and CADJPY have been extremely pretty in their movements.
enjoy and trade well
mp
Sorry, I can't provide any type of statistical discussion.
Personally, I like to trade on the H4, and maybe even the H1. Anything lower than that, I see a lot of noise and spikes.
To me, the market is a giant cloud, moving with the wind. It will always move to where the wind blows, but if you look closer, there are a lot of random movements within the cloud. I try to avoid to look too deep into the cloud, and just stay with the general wind direction. Obviously, there are high and low pressure like support and resistance. Making money in the market is like forecasting weather. Most of the time, it goes according to plan, but sometimes, it just is wrong prediction.
Sorry, I can't provide any type of statistical discussion.
Personally, I like to trade on the H4, and maybe even the H1. Anything lower than that, I see a lot of noise and spikes.
To me, the market is a giant cloud, moving with the wind. It will always move to where the wind blows, but if you look closer, there are a lot of random movements within the cloud. I try to avoid to look too deep into the cloud, and just stay with the general wind direction. Obviously, there are high and low pressure like support and resistance. Making money in the market is like forecasting weather. Most of the time, it goes according to plan, but sometimes, it just is wrong prediction.======================================================
ahhh weedhopper, so poeticly stated that I must add a tiny concept that I carry in my wallet, just for those rainy days ! FIRST is the general wind direction for those longer term traders, and then you have the smaller movements (anything but RANDOM !) for the shorter term traders BUT, no matter what timeframe you enjoy, EVERYTHING belongs to the trader who owns THE PURPLE LINES !
So many theories, so much discussion, so little experience and yet SO SIMPLE !
LETS SEE -- buy at the purple line and sell at the purple line and count your 1500 pips and thats just working with ONE puff of wind !
btw --- by the time the dust clears and the shorts cover, i would expect GU to have hit in the 1.8082 area, although that will be a bit down the road, and there will be ups and downs getting there !
Can you say SHORT ?
enjoy and trade well
mp
I should rephrase my last statement, I don't mean random, more like chaotic. More games are being played in the lower time frame, but on the H4, it requires bigger players and there a lot less of them. Higher time frames dictate down to the lower time frames. So for M1, they have to worry about all the other traders looking at higher time frames that will move the market. But for H4 and above traders, you really only have to worry about the daily and weekly traders, which are rare looking at sites like these. Most people want to get on the M5 and bang out 50 trades, and that's just not for me, too much work. I did find that going to lower time frames requires more focus and innovative thinking to set the trap, then I took those new understandings and applied to longer time frames to enhance it. For instance, stops above or below a pivot is often times honored by the market on higher time frames, whereas the lower time frames, not so much.
I do agree that simple indicators like MA and Stoch/Macd/Rsi type do work if you know how to apply it. Because most of them are just price action in a different form. And price action is how you determine a trend.
As of now, nobody has posted anything that is even remotely close to answerring my question: what is your ideal timeseries to trade from a statistical point of view. Any takers?
My favorite time series is the most profitable, I see no reason to consider the question based on any other metric. The thread seems more like an exercise in 'look at me', as obviously such things are not discussed here. I suggest you ask this question on the Wilmott forums.
I should rephrase my last statement, I don't mean random, more like chaotic. More games are being played in the lower time frame, but on the H4, it requires bigger players and there a lot less of them. Higher time frames dictate down to the lower time frames. So for M1, they have to worry about all the other traders looking at higher time frames that will move the market. But for H4 and above traders, you really only have to worry about the daily and weekly traders, which are rare looking at sites like these. Most people want to get on the M5 and bang out 50 trades, and that's just not for me, too much work. I did find that going to lower time frames requires more focus and innovative thinking to set the trap, then I took those new understandings and applied to longer time frames to enhance it. For instance, stops above or below a pivot is often times honored by the market on higher time frames, whereas the lower time frames, not so much. I do agree that simple indicators like MA and Stoch/Macd/Rsi type do work if you know how to apply it. Because most of them are just price action in a different form. And price action is how you determine a trend.
====================================================
see, this is why i dislike this type of question and the OP's desire not to understand !
there is NO defense needed of differing timeframes as each timeframe is what fits the personality and comfort zones of the trader, such as youre liking the longer ones or my doing every one or what one likes on top of their pizza, assuming they like pizza at all !
The OP wants to make some kind of scientific study of the "BEST" timeframes from a statistical pov, and I simply do not think that is a viable question or relative to anything in the "real" world and have so stated !
FOR THOSE WITH EQUAL EXPERIENCE, ALL of the timeframes are viable and each is the "BEST" to someone ---- to put it plainly, and agreeing with those posting above, I believe its a totally stupid question and the OP's utter refusal to accept it as stupid should be left to wither on the vine and die. HE is interested in his approach, and after settling down a while, I can see Im in the wrong place !
I originally thought he was just misquided, but can now see hes simply determined to go off in this outer space adventure of his, discuss physics, astronomy and accounting as pertains to trading and live happily ever after !
ME, im outta here cause this aint no place for me !
enjoy and trade well
mp
I actually think it is a very fair question considering in what he is trying to achieve. He's trying to statistically find an edge, there is nothing wrong with that. In fact, it is very good to deal with numbers and statistics because that is how patterns are mined with a computer. I'm just not smart enough to do it, but my hat is off to the OP to take this on. There are different edges, a lot of quant funds will probably hire him to do just what he is trying to do and get paid very well.