The downfall of trading systems.
Unfortunately, about 98% of all indicators in existence repaint the history. Live forward testing over at least 3 to 6 months gives you an idea as to the ea's possible reliability.
Most people peddling ea's want the money right away and sometimes get it by using backtesting results because buyers are not educated as to what to look for in an ea. Backtesting just gives you a very rough idea as to whether the ea may generate money, and that is only if the modeling quality is 90% or more.
I personally do not like a manual system because it also involves emotions when placing trades plus I have to stay up nights to play the best times (Located in U.S.) EA is still the way to go, but one must be committed to patience and somewhat scientific testing and modifications to reach a point of optimized settings in an EA.
Dave
Agree
Hi jjk2,
I've started to return every course, ebook etc that offers a money back guarantee. I buy everything that looks good and there is so many available but if I test it and it doesn't work I just return it. I only buy stuff from clickbank because you just click on yor order and choose return product. Paypal doesn't work because the person that must honour the guarantee have to authorise it. They usually don't but your bank can help you to reverse the transaction. Nobody steal money from me......
I don't think you can buy anything worthwhile.
eas systems
Most ea's don't work well because the market has different retracments
which "schew" the averages so a system now doesnt work for something else a few weeks later.
really, when you get down to it , there are probably few signals that can get you the exact market "where its @" . The market is also very "visual" ..ie did you see that trend line break? now its support etc..
Backtesting and optimizing cant catch it. so the cycle continues. Most lose in trading , because quit honestly...its darn hard to automate and manual you need to have steel and patients at the same time in your blood.
MOST EA's dont work but SOME do. the ones that do are probably with their owners (programmers) because it really takes a LOT of tweaking to get something that works for a while. After ridiculous periods of tweaking you can finally have a program that can play in most market conditions. (My EA just needs me to pick decent entries for it and it will collect profits until the market turns against me)
hi
Most ea's don't work well because the market has different retracments
which "schew" the averages so a system now doesnt work for something else a few weeks later.
really, when you get down to it , there are probably few signals that can get you the exact market "where its @" . The market is also very "visual" ..ie did you see that trend line break? now its support etc..
Backtesting and optimizing cant catch it. so the cycle continues. Most lose in trading , because quit honestly...its darn hard to automate and manual you need to have steel and patients at the same time in your blood.That's right ....don't believe backtesting result ...the most important is forward testing for couple months ...we can grow our equity if we know where's the direction of the trend ....not how many pips did u got a day
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MOST EA's dont work but SOME do. the ones that do are probably with their owners (programmers) because it really takes a LOT of tweaking to get something that works for a while. After ridiculous periods of tweaking you can finally have a program that can play in most market conditions. (My EA just needs me to pick decent entries for it and it will collect profits until the market turns against me)
most definitely. there are some very successful EAs.
Agree
It happens everywhere (not just in forex-tsd comunity). For the newbies they will easily fall into this kind of promises and astonishing words. Not just "i made xxxx pips per month", some said " how i made xxxx money in a month".
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do TAKE offense if you fall under the scammer category.
without a doubt, there are very good systems on this forum. just like many other communities. But i feel like we are constantly being bombarded with "XXX's 50000 pips a month" or "XOXO's awesome scalping system" and other short lived pathetic systems that are just simply hype basing on backtesting or just a couple months of "trading on metatrader." Quantity is probably what all forums care about, and quality is being eroded by noise and sensleess threads. most forums are being infested with quantity over quality.
heres a brief life cycle:
1) always starts with a fnacy title or itro. "i made XXXX pips in a month"
2) then the setup, and rules
3) ppl start reading
4) ppl think backtest and a couple month of demo trading works awesome. or even a couple months of live trade. ie. "does this indicator repaint" "ZOMG ty."
5) new "extreme loyalists" start backslashing at anyone who criticisezes or fills the critic's PM box with hateful and emtion filled rebuttal about why anyone against the system is a fool, and that they hope that he/she loses money.
6) thread view and posts start picking up. gold stars start piling up, furthering the momentum.
7) "extreme loyalists" and author continues to post and gathers momentum.
8) websites are formed. private groups are created. where you can have access to exclusive information for monthly subscrption.
9) systems are found on eBAY with different names in the form of EAs.
10) new pile of craps push this system to further backpages.
I think anyone proposing a new system should have some restrictions before they post it.
Some questions to ask themselves:
do I stilll trade with this method LIVE (anyone can paint the past) or am I just looking for attention by luring noobs about quick painless profits?
do I believe in this system and think that it will truly contribute to the quality of the overall knowledge of the community.
how long have i been trading system and is it consistent enough and worthy enough to be read by others?
i wonder how many system threads we will have after those filters are enforced.