To trade or not to trade Indicators?
Hi yaniv_av,
Your question is not simple.
because as many trades as many indicators/systems. people are using trading systems for estimation, as indicators as trading systems (Ichimoku for example), or some forecasting (free or commercial) or estimating using some standard indicators.
Besicly it is not very difficult as we are always on the market trading and monitoring the price movement.
There are some links to related subject:
- evaluation of the market condition using six SMA indicators: original public thread.
- Forex Market Conditions, a graphic depiction: thread with image and explanation about markert condition.
- Woodie's choppy zone indicator: many choppy zone indicators from Igorad; original thread.
Meaning of the color in some Igorad's indicators:
MediumBlue: Strong UpTrend.
Crimson: Strong DownTrend
DodgerBlue: Retrace UpTrend
Tomato: Retrace DownTrend
LightBlue: Choppy UpTrend
Orange: Choppy DownTrend
Aqua: Be ready to change UpTrend
Yellow: Be ready to change DownTrend
- SideWinder for CCI: My first release: original thread started FX-Sniper.
- ZZi indicator: version of the CCI clearly shows OverBought and OverSold levels.
- Jurik Woodie CCI: indicators are here.
- CCI Filter: original thread with indicators and full explanation.
- market condition evaluation (incl choppy zones) and prediction using MTF_AbsoluteStrength_v1 indicator: original thread with indicators, live trading results and images; how to use indicator (rules): read all the pages starting from this page till this one.
- Indicator That Isolates SIDEWAYS Market: original thread; small indicator's collection with images;
- STIX indicator: elite section:.
in The Polymetric Report. It compares the amount of
volume flowing into advancing and declining stocks.
According to The Polymetric Report:
STIX usually ranges between +42 and +58.
If STIX gets as low as 45, the market is almost
always a buy, except in a raging bear market.
The market is fairly overbought if STIX rises to 56;
and except in a new bull market, it's wise to sell if
STIX should go over 58.
Traders and investors should modify these rough rules
to suit their own objectives.
In normal markets, STIX rarely gets as high as 56 or
as low as 45, so rigid use of these rules of
thumb would keep you inactive most of the time.
For active accounts, the rules might be made much
less stringent.
Extremely Overbought greater than 58
Fairly Overbought greater than 56
Fairly Oversold less than 45
Extremely Oversold less than 42Ichimoku chart/system with forecasting possibility:
- thread (with explanation, market condition estimation and forecasting) is here and here,
- some template is here,
- indicators are here,
- MTF Ichimoku indicators is here,
- new Ichimoku indicators are here and here (thanks fxbs).
- Trend /Reversal /Continuation HELPER: original thread of very good indicator
- Reliable Trendlines: small elite section thread with many trend lines or support/resistance lines indicators.
- MaksiGen_Range_Move: the indicator as part of MaksiGen Trading system; it drawing horizontal trend line and support/resistance lines, also - breakout lines. The same indicator with alarm is here.
Personally I prefer Ichimoku, or MaksiGen_Range_Move, or MTF_AbsoluteStrength_v1 indicator. Besides there are some indicators for M5 timeframes which i am using sometimes (PriceTrend or PriceTender with H1 settings created by Kalenzo).
But, anyway, almost everything is based on standard indicators so they are very good as well.
To trade or not to trade???
Are here on this forum someone who really make money on forex or all forever looking for good indicator that a chronic optimist like me. Please post here not the best indicator that you think it is, but that indicator that you made really money on your live account many years.
Are here on this forum someone who really make money on forex or all forever looking for good indicator that a chronic optimist like me. Please post here not the best indicator that you think it is, but that indicator that you made really money on your live account many years.
Hi Forexof,
You make the common mistake to think that you will become profitable if you could just find that single indicator that will suddenly make all the difference in trading. That single indicator that will nearly give all winning trades and nearly no losing trades. Who gives precise long signals after a major bottom occured and vice versa for the short signals.
That single indicator that will turn you from a losing trader into a winning trader.
How strange this may sound, even that you see here on this forum or anywhere else on the internet, thousands of idicators, you will never ever ever find an indicator that will predict the direction of price with a certainty higher then 50% or that will do better then flipping a coin.
Not even the direction of the next bar.
Friendly regards... iGoR
PS. But that does not mean that you can not stay positieve 
Thank's iGoR, you are right. I seen already around 2000 or 3000 of indicators and I find some not bad indicators like UTrand, SuperTrend or all from MACD, but you said right that no one can give us more than 50% success. I can not understand why the another traders works with fibo-livels or support and resistance? I see that any supports may becomes a resistance and we you will do a lot of mistakes, it is likes guessing.
I have to you IGoR one special question:
If all traders from all the world will deal to trade with only one indicator, for exemple simple MACD with defolt parameters, can the market to be predictable??? When all will sell the market will going down, same case in long. Or the market is a special program and all the traders from the earth will can not move radically the market?
10X again ! ! ! 
Probability of good signals
Hi all!
Please, poste in this thread your long time followed by some analysis of any indicator that showed you good probability of the correct entry signal. Show us your 2/1 or 3/1 profits/losses or better satisfied results.
my opinion
Are here on this forum someone who really make money on forex or all forever looking for good indicator that a chronic optimist like me. Please post here not the best indicator that you think it is, but that indicator that you made really money on your live account many years.
Indicators , as igor said , give u a 50% (maybe) chance of entering a good trade . But , if i may say , an opinion shared by many , price action can be used as a good indicator . Try google-ing the forex cash cow method , it is just for the Gpb/Usd pair , but gives a 75 % chance of profitable trade. It is just based on the price action . U don`t get many trades per month , but 3 out of 4 usually turn to be profitable .
Another thing i have learned is combining the price action with market sentiment . For me , market sentiment is the expectation that we have for a pair to go up ore down , according to the news releases for the day , but expected values of the news releases, and not the actual releases. I repet, the expected value . In other words , if yesterday eur/usd pair has jumped up for let`s say 100 pips, and the expected news for today are to be green for the eur pair, and red for the usd , than it is fair enough to assume price will jump higher. (ASSUME) . Now u can start using retracement methods ore fibs for a good entry point . Then again the actual value of the news can be the other way around , but still , you actually get more chances for profitable trades than loosing ones.
Again , the info provided upstairs :P , it is my opinion and what i use , what i became comfortable with in the past year . It does`nt mean it will work for you to ... Cheers
I have to you IGoR one special question:
If all traders from all the world will deal to trade with only one indicator, for exemple simple MACD with defolt parameters, can the market to be predictable??? When all will sell the market will going down, same case in long. Or the market is a special program and all the traders from the earth will can not move radically the market?
10X again ! ! ! Hi Forexerof2011,
If all traders from the WHOLE world would like to go long at the same time...who is going to sell then those contracts to everybody ?...
That would have as effect that price would not go up but would drop to zero. Because if price would be , lets say for eurusd at 1.3800. You would look 1 pip lower and nobody is selling an other pip lower and again nobody is selling and an other pip lower and an other pip and 100 pips and 1000 pips lower etc etc because nobody want to sell (remember they all want to go long)...so you would have a spread between ask price at 1.3800 and bid price at 0.0000
So price would absolutly not move up
regards...iGoR
totally disagree
i will have to totally disagree on this one .....
if everybody would start buying at this moment eur/usd (that is traders, big players , funds etc...well everybody ) the price will go up . There is a very big Logic in this . The banks will follow ... why , well the banks have as well euros so , the value of that banks assets in eur versus usd will grow as well . They will make more money if the value of they`re assets grows , than if the price would drop and they would just take our money ... Still it is my opinion .
i will have to totally disagree on this one ..... if everybody would start buying at this moment eur/usd (that is traders, big players , funds etc...well everybody ) the price will go up . There is a very big Logic in this . The banks will follow ... why , well the banks have as well euros so , the value of that banks assets in eur versus usd will grow as well . They will make more money if the value of they`re assets grows , than if the price would drop and they would just take our money ... Still it is my opinion .
Hi Mihai,
Before you say that you totaly disagree you should carefully read what Forexerof2011 asked me!...
His question was what would happen if the WHOLE world would go long all at the same moment? The whole world is the whole world That is all traders and all liquidity providers and banks and institutes and private traders etc This means that nobody wants to go short.
When you would know how markets work then you would know that for each person that wants to sell there needs to be someone that wants to buy. For each person that wants to buy there needs to be someone that wants sell.
If you have already encountered spreads that got wider, then that was because less people want to sell and or buy.
If the whole world wants to go long and NOBODY is selling any contracts then the bid price will drop to zero.
You can say that you do not agree but you need to accept that this is the way that markets works. Again the whole world is the whole world without any exception. That was how Forexerof2011, frased his question. I know that his question is impossible but I gave the theoretical answer to it.
Friendly regards...iGoR
it was just my opinion
It just was my opinion . Still Igor, do you really think that , even theoretical , the bid price can go to 0 ? You are totally right , if nobody`s selling than we do have a issue , still that issue would actually affect only the people who are trying to reenter the trade . Not to say that banks and most of the brokers have a fixed spread , which actually mean that not only the bid price would drop to 0 but also the ask price . Not to say that , as well , the price at any given time , is not taken only from the relation between the two pairs we are trading against but as well , from the correlation of that two pairs with other pairs on the market at current time . The question is only theoretical , and the possibility of it actually happening is maybe 1 in a bilion , still the outcome that you suggest , seems highly unlikeable . I don`t say impossible , but in the event that this would happen, the only counter effect would be that you can`t take new trades , ore other traders who just woke up , can`t enter the move .
If i may ask you , I have heard o lot of times the expression, "trader`s are pushing the market ". Are you familiar with that expression? And if yes , could you please tell me what is actually happening when trader`s are pushing the market ? Is the effect of the one`s pushing the market directly related to the market move ore indirectly .... If the pushers are buying , the market will go long ore short?
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Do you know indicators which determine if it is a "trade zone" or not ?
I know only one - "noise to signal" indicator.
If you know more, please write them here...
10X !