Phoenix optimization - page 16
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Trend or Countertrend
Hi Bert,
Call me crazy, but consider the following first.
1. A countertrending enters a trade against the slope on the expectation of a reversal (due to overbuying or overselling).
2. It must therefore rely on a large stop loss in order to get over the hump (or through the trough) and back to positive territory.
3. Consequently, when it loses, it loses large.
4. If Phoenix signals are good enough to detect the countertrend (negative) slope, they can just as well detect the trend (positive) slope.
5. Reversing the Buy/Sell signals should make Phoenix trade on the positive trend slope.
6. Trading on the positive trend slope does not require a huge SL, so any losses will me much smaller than with a countertrending strategy.
Why shouldn't it work. I hope that Daraknor can put together a trending version of Phoenix 6 with EASY signals as well as original Phoenix signals.
I am not doing any more backtesting. I use visual testing of indicators on charts to see whether settings are useful. See the attached image of a chart with Phoenix and EASY indicators. It is slow work (trial and error) but I think that this is the only way to assess signal settings objectively. You can see that the blue buy arrows are near the bottom of the trough and the red sell arrows are near the top of the crest. This has to be done consistently for successful trading. But I do not think that the TS/TP/SL work properly the code when Buy/Sell are reversed in Phoenix signals. I would appreciate comments.
4. If Phoenix signals are good enough to detect the countertrend (negative) slope, they can just as well detect the trend (positive) slope.
.
.
6. Trading on the positive trend slope does not require a huge SL, so any losses will me much smaller than with a countertrending strategy.
Very good point! Makes sense. This is worth a try. That way TP:SL can be at least 1:1 if not better.
Btw, I remember Once putting together template for Easy after reading that article. I don't remember any arrows on the chart though
Did you put them on manually or are they part of indi?
Do you mind posting the whole enchilada, indicators and template for your Easy variant. I like it :-)
Tnx, Mario
I'm doing some optimization now on Phoenix 6, trying to see if having a very small SL results in signals that enter higher up the hump.
My commercial EA TerraFractal can enter on early retracement, or at the expected hump. Both are profitable, but I prefer retracement because it results in lower drawdown even though it results in fewer trades.
Hi Autumn
I prefer 100 % "crazy" people than "marsh mellow" people (if you understand me)...Most part of evolution come from "crazy" ideas...
Your "tentative" is excellent and if it works it will be a successfull EA
I agree with all you said about Phoenix : sometimes it works sometimes not, reason why some people said that it was a random EA.
Only thing : Phoenix have more or less 60 % success
How to increase that ? And reduces the awfull losses ?
As in remenber in November 2006 I had the same question waiting that stupid SL (or TP).
Hope you will find the magical exit strategy...
See you and have a great WE
(Mario is back with a bunch of good ideas !!!! As he said if TP=Sl 1:1 Waaaaoooo !
)
Phoenix trending plus EASY
Thanks Mario, Darak, Bert, M6, for your comments. Here's the kit I am using for visual testing on chart.
Template
Indicators for EASY and Phoenix (the trade arrows are drawn by the latter)
EA v572W with Buy/Sell reversed and two extra signals from EASY
I guess you know where to put the indicators. To optimize, adjust the numbers in the Phoenix indicator and see where the arrows appear (the numbers are pretty good already). The idea is to get them as close as possible to positions where EASY would enter trades. It is work in progress, not perfect yet. Next run very short backtests on another MT4 installation with Alpari data (a few hours at most) in visual mode to see if the trades actually occur in the positions where the arrows appear on the template. Make any necessary adjustments using the Indicator template again, and backtest again to see if trades kick in where wanted. You can turn signals on and off, try different combinations, to see if results change. The two EASY signals have external inputs so they can be tweaked, but probably not necessary. (Toying with the idea of putting 45 and 55 for the iRSI signal instead of even 50.)
I am still not certain if TS, TP, and SL all work as they should when the Buy/Sell are reversed in the signals. Is it possible that adjustments need to be made here? Perhaps it is best to backtest with no TS, and SL/TP around 10 or 20. Please test in visual mode so you can see the action and analyze what happens.
You will note that Signal 2 in this reversed Phoenix is using PRICE_TYPICAL instead of PRICE_CLOSE. I saw that the former was used in the Phoenix template, so I changed it in the EA code to be the same. Not sure if it makes any difference.
Here's a question: in the old Phoenix defaults, the Envelope percents were extremely small numbers in most cases. This means Envelope is really more like a line than a channel, and the signal goes off if price is above or below a line with a very long MA period. I don't really see the purpose in this. I tried to set Envelopes to mimic the effect of the PAC in EASY, i.e., it is a real no-trade channel, with breakout. If the purpose of the original Envelope was something else, maybe the whole notion should be rethought.
Daraknor has offered to put the remaining two EASY signals into Phoenix 6. I look forward to seeing the result. Please please please Daraknor put indicators for all the signals right in the EA so we can easily visualize activity right on the charts!!!
Thanks guys for all your help. Let me know if you come up with improvements or have any comments. Remember, it's only work in progress.
The file
Here is the stuff mentioned in the previous post
Autunm
Pls : lets us know of which version of P you are talking : Trending or Counter Trending. Sometimes we don't know exactly of what you are talking about !!!!
(Especially for me
)
Countertrending
Yeah Bert, I do that deliberately to confuse you...
Countertrending, of course, and based on 5.7.2W. I hope to move to P6 soon.
Take care
Here is the stuff mentioned in the previous post
Autumleaves, thank you!
mario
Divergence signal (Signal4 in Phoenix 5) on the chart.
https://www.mql5.com/en/code/7076