Impossible to predict the future
Hi everybody
I am beginning to think its impossible to predict the future so I thought of a new system and would like to hear your two cents
On the daily
Find three or four currencies with the lowest spread
Buy or sell them It really doesn't matter \
Put a 15 pt stop loss on each one
Check them once a day
After three days take your profits and hope it is more then your lossesSounds like gambling. Have you ever try it?
Roll the dice, close you're eyes... And BANG you loose!
Hi everybody
I am beginning to think its impossible to predict the future so I thought of a new system and would like to hear your two cents
On the daily
Find three or four currencies with the lowest spread
Buy or sell them It really doesn't matter \
Put a 15 pt stop loss on each one
Check them once a day
After three days take your profits and hope it is more then your lossesThe title I gave this post will sum it up...
No
I think this is a way to cut you losses and let your winners ride
No I think this is a way to cut you losses and let your winners ride
Gambler won't win anything
An idea worth trying. However, the stop is too tight. If you are looking to keep a trade open 72 hours, you should look at the 4 hour and daily trading ranges. Your stop should be adjusted based on those values.
If you like the idea of just placing trades to see what will happen then I would look up "grid trading". If you follow the methods outlined it will help you with direction in this method you are talking about. This method does not suit me but some people are very successful with it.
If trading was so easy that you could place random orders and still make profit then we would all be rich... That's why the casino's always win. They have a strategy layed out that will benifit them not the customer. Develop an edge an you have a chance. Without one you will blow your account. Just my opinion though.
PS. By the way thanks for that beginning post... I haven't laughed that hard for a very long time!
Yes it's impossible to tell the future.. Trading, like professional gambling is all about probabalities.. it's a numbers game. That is all.
Hi everybody
I am beginning to think its impossible to predict the future so I thought of a new system and would like to hear your two cents
On the daily
Find three or four currencies with the lowest spread
Buy or sell them It really doesn't matter \
Put a 15 pt stop loss on each one
Check them once a day
After three days take your profits and hope it is more then your lossesI won't criticise your idea except you may know little about the market environment. There are four basic market conditions, namely trendy, choppy, range bouncing and flat.
In trendy market, you win if you choose the right trend, so your winning chances is 50%. In choppy market, your chances of winning is 0%.
In rang bouncing market, your chances of winning is also 0% and in the flat market condition, the little spike for up and down could range between 5 to 30 pips, so eventually your chances of winning is 0%.
Hence in total your chances of winning under the 4 market conditions is about 12.5% and losing chances is 87.5%. The winnign factor is 0.125 far below the 1.5 ( the norm factor ).
Predicting the future
Try using Murrey Maths - that is the closest you will ever get to predicting the future price direction - that and plenty of experience
I won't criticise your idea except you may know little about the market environment. There are four basic market conditions, namely trendy, choppy, range bouncing and flat.
In trendy market, you win if you choose the right trend, so your winning chances is 50%. In choppy market, your chances of winning is 0%.
In rang bouncing market, your chances of winning is also 0% and in the flat market condition, the little spike for up and down could range between 5 to 30 pips, so eventually your chances of winning is 0%.
Hence in total your chances of winning under the 4 market conditions is about 12.5% and losing chances is 87.5%. The winnign factor is 0.125 far below the 1.5 ( the norm factor ).I agree with you wholeheartedly.. but in my experience I have found that it all depends on the timeframe when it comes to your percentage of possible wins in a choppy/flat/ranging/trending markets.
In a trending market I realize that you can trade any timeframe and you will have a 50% chance..
However in a choppy or ranging market, if you lower your TF to say 1 or 5M even 15M depending, and your technique is changed to a shorter more in and out strategy.. your chances are probably as high as 50% if you succumb to the idea that you will be jumping out of the trade with a very small gain. 1-10pips.
Flat market your right.. pretty much 0% -- but i've found that often a flat market precedes a large breakout sort of like the "calm before the storm". So if one can only be patient enough to wait for it to come to them!
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Hi everybody
I am beginning to think its impossible to predict the future so I thought of a new system and would like to hear your two cents
On the daily
Find three or four currencies with the lowest spread
Buy or sell them It really doesn't matter \
Put a 15 pt stop loss on each one
Check them once a day
After three days take your profits and hope it is more then your losses