COT Currency Futures applied to FX: Indicators available? - page 2
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RPM Update
USDCHF: 2:1 2 buyers for every 1 seller, this has declined from an earlier reading today of 2.26. I am watching the UsdChf carefully for this ratio to increase as price moves to new lows.
EURUSD: 1:1 This ratio is flat. There are an even number of buyers and seller.
AUDUSD: 1:1 The big mover for the day. This ratio has gone down today from 1.3 as retail traders have taken profits as the price has moved up.
GBPUSD: 1.18:1 Overall choppy price action. No significant support / resistance levels have inspired traders to increase their positioning at this time.
AU Retail Sales 8:30 pm EST and Retail Positioning
Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.
Forecast: .3
A negative deviation of .9 should move the market -40 to -70 pips
A positive deviatioin of 1.1 should move the market +40 to 70 pips
A negative deviation of .5 should move the market -30 to -50 pips
A positive deviatioin of .5 should move the market +30 to 50 pips
A 100% retracement is common in the following 3 hours. If no conflicts this entry should be good for 60-150 pips.
Retal positioning stands at -1.1 as there are 1.1 sellers for every 1 buyer. This ratio has gone down from 1.28 as traders have taken profits after the 400 pip move from march 26th. For live retail positioning information - see additional charts here.
The retail positioning ratio signifies that if there is a + deviation > .9 and price breaks .9215 sell stops will be hit and price will continue higher.
UsdCad nearing Stopout Zone
RPM shows traders have been adding to long UsdCad positions while price is falling. Stops likely rest below the low of April 1st. If stops are triggered at this level, price will fall quickly. Live RPM buy/sell ratio charts avail here. SSI DailyFx positioning agrees.
Hi Rpmfxtrader,
I subscribed to your blog. Your indicator looks promising. Can you please let me know when you will be releasing the final version of the retail meter?
AUD Interest Rate Decision
The AUD Interest Rate Decision contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future rate decisions.
Forecast: .25 hike to 3.25%
A negative deviation of .25 (no hike) should move the market -45 to -90 pips
A positive deviation of .25 (.5 hike) should move the market +45 to 90 pips
There has been chatter of no hike due to deteriorating market conditions in Australia. Therefore, a 0 deviation or .25 hike as expected may create an initial spike.
Retracements are not common, unless there is an accompanying statment following the interest rate decision that conflicts with the release deviation.
Retail positioning stands at -1.1 as there are 1.1 sellers for every 1 buyer. For live retail positioning information - click here.
The retail positioning ratio signifies a nearly equal number of buyers to sellers and a positive or negative deviation will have the same effect.
UsdCad Update
The UsdCad did trigger stops and continue down below 1.0060. The position is up 40 pips. Traders continue to add to long positions as price makes new lows.
RPM has hit 2.1 as there are 2.1 buyers for every 1 seller. New buyers likely placed stops below 1.0000. A break of that level should trigger additional downside movement as stops are taken out.
To view live RPM charts click here.
To learn more about the RPM indicator and how to use it in your trading click here.
great post
I'd really like to see a study done on how wrong the currensee community is. It's such a shame that COT and sentiment indicator are such great contrarian signals. I would like to see the little guys making the money.
- ask and you shall recieve
COT/RPM Videos show why it's important to know positioning data:
Part I: Intro to the REAL Forex Market :: The Art of Forex Trading
Part II: How to Profit from Stop Hunters using COT/RPM Data