Forex Market Update - page 10
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Forex Market Update 30Mai14
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies, ahead of the release of the US personal consumption and spending data, along with few speeches from few of the top Fed officials.
The EUR is trading higher against the USD despite the recent batch of soft economic releases from Germany and Italy. Also an ECB policymaker, Ignazio Visco indicated that the central bank stands prepared to act if Euro-zone’s inflation forecast remains below the ECB’s 2.0% inflation target over the next two years.
The JPY gained ground as a jump in Japan’s April core consumer price index dampened speculation for an additional stimulus measure by the BoJ. However, the IMF urged the Japanese central bank to opt for more aggressive steps to avoid Abenomics from failing.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the greenback traded mostly lower against the key currencies, after the US GDP fell more-than-expected 1.0% in the first quarter. Separately, the Kansas City Fed President, Esther George urged to Fed to raise its key interest rates sharply soon after it end its QE measure to minimize the risks in financial markets.
In the UK, the BoE Deputy Governor, Charlie Bean opined that raising interest rates in small “baby steps” could mitigate the risks of complications in the future.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3615 against the USD, 0.10% higher from the New York close. Earlier today, ECB’s Ignazio Visco hinted that policymakers are ready to act if inflation outlook remains below the central bank’s 2.0% target over the next two years. In economic data, retail sales in Germany unexpectedly declined in April while Italy’s consumer and producer prices missed market expectations. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3618 and a low of 1.3600. Yesterday, the EUR traded a tad lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3601.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3598 and first resistance at 1.3629.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6736 against the USD, 0.11% higher from the New York close. Late Thursday, the Gfk reported that its index on UK’s consumer confidence improved to a nine-year high reading in May while a BoE policymaker, Charlie Bean opined that raising interest rates in small “baby steps” could help the BoE avoid making a mistake. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6759 and a low of 1.6718. Yesterday, the British Pound traded marginally higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6718.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6708 and first resistance at 1.6761.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.63 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.11% lower from the New York close, as the latter advanced amid speculation that the BoJ would not add to its stimulus measures after Japan’s core consumer inflation rate jumped to 23-year high level in April. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.77 and a low of 101.55. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded a tad higher against the JPY, and closed at 101.74.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.42 and first resistance at 101.84.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8964 against the Swiss Franc, 0.17% lower from the New York close. In economic news, the Swiss KOF leading indicator registered a fall for the third consecutive month in May. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8984 and a low of 0.8966. Yesterday, the USD ended the New York session flat against the CHF, and closed at 0.8979.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8950 and first resistance at 0.8981.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0826 against the CAD, 0.12% lower from the New York close. Traders keenly await the release of Canada’s GDP data for further cues in the Canadian Dollar. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0843 and a low of 1.0831. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.19% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0839, as the latter advanced after data showed that Canada’s current account deficit narrowed to C$12.4 billion in the first quarter, the lowest since the end of 2011.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0810 and first resistance at 1.0856.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9310 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.05% higher from the New York close. Data released overnight showed that the value of loans outstanding to the Australian private sector rose 0.5% on a month-on-month basis in April. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9329 and a low of 0.9306. AUD traded 0.24% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9305.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9279 and first resistance at 0.9335.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1254.00 per ounce, 0.12% lower from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1259.60 and a low of $1252.00 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.07% higher, and closed at $1255.50, as a lackluster US GDP data fuelled demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, a leading broker expressed an optimistic short-term outlook on the gold prices amid ongoing geo-political tensions in Ukraine.
Gold has its first support at $1250.27 and first resistance at $1259.17.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.01 per ounce, 0.13% lower from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.09 and a low of $18.94. Silver traded 0.77% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.03, tracking gains in gold prices.
Silver has its first support at $18.83 and first resistance at $19.14.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $103.14 per barrel, 0.40% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $103.53 and a low of $103.07. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.50% higher in the New York session, and closed at $103.53, benefitting from a sharp fall in the US gasoline inventories and a drop in Libya’s oil output. However, a more-than-expected rise of 1.7 million barrels in the US crude supplies last week, kept the commodity’s losses in check.
It has its first support at $102.52 and first resistance at $103.85.
Economic Snapshot
German retail sales increased more than expected in April
On an annual basis, retail sales in Germany rose 3.4% in April, following a revised fall of 1.1% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting retail sales to rise 1.5% in April.
Italy’s producer price index fell more than expected in April
On a monthly basis, Italy’s producer price index dropped 0.3% in April, compared to a 0.2% fall recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the producer price index to decline 0.2% in April.
Italian consumer price index fell unexpectedly in May
On a monthly basis, the preliminary consumer price index in Italy fell 0.1% in May, compared to 0.2% rise in the previous month. Markets were expecting the consumer price index to remain unchanged in May. On a monthly basis, the EU normalised consumer price index in Italy fell 0.1% in May, compared to 0.5% rise in the previous month.
Spain current account deficit narrowed in March
The current account deficit of Spain narrowed to €1.8 billion in March from a deficit of €2.8 billion recorded in the previous month.
Swiss KOF leading indicator declined unexpectedly in May
The KOF leading economic indicator in Switzerland declined to a level of 99.8 in May, compared to a revised reading of 101.8 reported in the previous month. Markets had expected the KOF leading indicator to rise to 102.1 in May.
Fed should raise interest rates sharply, indicated Fed’s George
The Kansas City Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President, Esther George, stated the central bank should begin raising interest rates soon after it winds down its asset purchase programme. George further opined that the Fed should increase interest rates more sharply than some of her fellow policymakers expect.
Japan may have to maintain loose policy stance for an extended period, indicated IMF
Officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have opined that given the steadily accelerating inflation in Japan, the Bank of Japan might not need to expand its monetary stimulus measures in the near future.
Japan construction orders rose sharply in April
On an annual basis, construction orders in Japan rose 104.9% in April, compared to an 8.8% decline recorded in the previous month. Additionally, the housing starts in Japan dropped less than expected by 3.3% in April, following a 2.9% decline recorded in the preceding month.
Private sector credit in Australia rose more than expected in April
On an annual basis, private sector credit in Australia rose 4.6% in April, compared to a 4.4% increase recorded in the previous month. Markets had expected private sector credit in Australia to rise 4.5% in April.
Good trades.
Weekly Forex Update
The greenback started the week on a positive note on the back of encouraging macroeconomic reports that suggested that the US economy is on the path of recovery. Moreover, comments from a few Federal Reserve (Fed) policy makers signaled that the central bank may raise interest rates sooner-than-expected. The greenback also found support from the rising tensions in Eastern Europe, after the newly elected Ukrainian President pledged to take steps to rein in separatists in the eastern part of the country.
However, the USD came under pressure in the second half of the week, after the US consumer sentiment and personal spending data disappointed traders. Additionally, the US Commerce Department revealed that the nation’s economy contracted more-than-expected in the Q1 2014.
The US data revealed that new orders for manufactured durable goods unexpectedly rose in April. House prices advanced more-than-expected in March and consumer confidence in the nation improved as expected in May. Business activity in the US service sector jumped to its highest level in more than two years in May, while the Chicago-area business activity rose to a seven-month high. The US Labor Department revealed that first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell more-than-expected for the week ended May 24.
The Kansas Fed chief, Esther George opined that the Fed should begin raising interest rates soon after it ends its current round of bond-buying, and that rise in rates should be steeper than expectations. Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed President, Jeffrey Lacker stated that the Fed could raise US interest rates around the second quarter of next year.
Despite lack of domestic triggers, the Euro advanced against the greenback last week. The European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, reassured investors that the bank remains alert to the risks to a prolonged period of low inflation and expressed readiness to take action if required.
In a positive development over the weekend, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy announced that the government will roll out a spending package worth more than $8 billion in the coming week to support growth and create more jobs.
The Pound fell 0.46% against the USD and 0.49% against the EUR last week, amid lack of domestic triggers from the UK. Market participants keenly await UK manufacturing PMI and housing data this week. Additionally, the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting will be closely watched for hints on the future policy stance.
Precious metals, gold and silver plummeted more than 3% last week and recorded a monthly loss, amid signs that the US economy is improving and as demand for the metals slowed in China, the biggest consumer. Moreover, the Fed officials continue to voice their support for the US central bank to raise interest rates, earlier-than-expected.
EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded marginally higher against the USD and closed at 1.3635, despite the release of mostly disappointing economic data from the Euro-region. Data indicated that the number of unemployed people in Germany unexpectedly increased, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged in May. Annual inflation weakened in Spain and Italy, adding pressure on the ECB to unveil unconventional measures. The CB leading index in the Euro-zone declined in April, following an increase in the previous two months. Moreover, money supply growth in the region slowed in April and loans to the private sector continued their downward trend. During the week, the ECB President, Mario Draghi assured investors that the central bank will do everything feasible within their mandate to counter deflationary pressures and boost recovery in the Euro-zone. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3670 and a low of 1.3585. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3590, with the next support expected at 1.3545. The first resistance is at 1.3675, and the next at 1.3715.
Amid sluggish growth and low inflation in the region, market participants will be looking forward to the outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting this week. Additionally, the final manufacturing and services PMI numbers from the European economies along with the final Euro-zone GDP data will attract market attention.
GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.46% lower against the USD and closed at 1.6755. In economic news, mortgage approvals in the UK declined for the fourth consecutive month in April. Meanwhile, the distributive trade survey disappointed traders as growth slowed more-than-expected in May. The pair traded at a high of 1.6883 and a low of 1.6693 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6671, with the next at 1.6587. Resistance exists first at 1.6861, and then at 1.6967.
Ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the domestic PMI and housing sector data for further insights into the health of the nation’s housing market. Additionally, the BoE monetary policy meeting scheduled on Thursday will be closely watched for hints on the future policy stance.
USD JPY
The USD traded 0.20% lower against the JPY over the past week, closing at 101.77. The greenback began the week on a positive note, following the release of better-than-expected economic data in the US. However, dismal personal spending and consumer sentiment data on Friday and a weak US GDP numbers released on Thursday, prompted traders to move away from the US dollar. Meanwhile, demand for the Yen continued to be underpinned by diminished expectations for more stimulus by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), after the bank indicated earlier this month that its stimulus program has been working as intended. In economic news, industrial output in Japan dipped in April, while, the Nationwide core inflation in Japan rose 3.2%. Retail sales in Japan slipped 4.4% on year in April at ¥11.01 trillion. The pair traded at a high of 102.16 and a low of 101.42. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.40, with the next support expected at 101.04. The first resistance is at 102.15, and the next at 102.53.
Apart from external cues, traders would keep an eye this week on Japanese economic data which includes Markit services PMI, leading economic and coincident index.
USD CHF
USD traded 0.07% lower against the CHF and closed at 0.8952 in the last week. The Swiss Franc advanced after data indicated that Switzerland’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.0%, aided by a positive trade balance and strong investments in construction industry. On quarterly basis, the economy grew 0.5% in the first three months of the year. Separately, trade surplus rose to CHF2.43 billion in April, from CHF1.99 billion in March. Exports grew 0.6% (MoM), from a decline of 1.1% in March. The KOF leading indicator fell for the third consecutive month to a reading of 99.8 in May. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.8991 and a low of 0.8933. The first support is at 0.8926, and the next at 0.8901. Resistance exists first at 0.8984, and then at 0.9017.
During the later course of this week, market participants would eye the Swiss consumer price inflation data which could prove a key determinant for the Swiss Franc. Additionally, the Swiss first quarter industrial production data and the SVME manufacturing PMI numbers for May will also be watched.
USD CAD
Despite uninspiring Canadian growth data, the Loonie finished higher last week, rising 0.14% against the USD to close at 1.0846. The greenback traded higher in the first half of the week, as better-than-expected durable goods order and services PMI data from the US supported demand for the USD. However, dismal consumer sentiment for May and first quarter GDP data capped dollar’s gain. The US dollar gained ground against its Canadian peer on Friday, after Statistics Canada reported that the Canadian economy slowed more sharply than expected in the Q1 2014, as a harsh winter in North America slowed housing construction, business spending and exports. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.0888 and a low of 1.0820 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0815, with the next at 1.0783. The first resistance is at 1.0883, while the next is at 1.0919.
Ahead this week, investors have their plate full with a raft of economic data including trade, housing, employment and Ivey manufacturing index, scheduled for release from Canada. Moreover, the Bank of Canada’s policy meeting will also remain crucial.
AUD USD
AUD traded 0.86% higher against the USD last week, and closed at 0.9310. In economic news, the Westpac leading index in Australia dropped 0.5% (MoM) in April, compared to a flat change recorded in the previous month. Also, private capital expenditure declined a more-than-expected 4.2% (QoQ) in Q1 2014, compared to a revised 4.5% drop recorded in the previous quarter. New home sales in Australia climbed 2.9% in April, compared to a 0.2% rise in the previous month. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, construction work done in Australia climbed 0.3% in Q1 2014, against expectations for a decline of 0.5%. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9331 and a low of 0.9211. The first support is at 0.9237, and the next at 0.9164. The first resistance is at 0.9357, and the next at 0.9404.
Traders will keep a close watch on the Australian trade, building permit and the Q1 GDP data this week. Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision will be on investors’ radar.
Gold
In the prior week, Gold plunged 3.31% against the USD and closed at USD1249.73, as upbeat durable goods order and weekly jobless claims data from the US kept greenback supported. Also, comments from few prominent Fed policy makers bolstered market demand for the USD. However, the yellow metal pared its losses after data showed that the world’s largest economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014 and consumer sentiment index fell more-than-expected. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1294.41 and a low of 1242.33 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1229.90 and the next at 1210.08. The first resistance is at 1281.98, while the next is at 1314.24.
Traders look forward to the outcome of monetary policy meeting from the ECB and central banks from the UK, Australia and Canada. Also, economic data from the US, particularly non-farm payrolls will generate market interest.
Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 1.57% lower against the USD in the last week and closed at USD102.71, as crude oil inventories in the US rose. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.5 million barrels rise in the US commercial crude oil inventories. Analysts had projected a gain of 500,000 barrels in the US crude supplies. Additionally, the Energy Information Administration indicated that the US crude stockpiles rose by 1.7 million barrels last week, higher than analysts’ expectations for a rise of 1.0 million barrels. However, escalating violence in Ukraine and lingering concerns on Libya’s supply outlook, kept the commodity’s losses in check. Oil traded at a high of 104.50 and a low of 102.40 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 101.91, while the next support exists at 101.10. The first resistance is at 104.01, and the next at 105.30.
In the week ahead, investors will keep a tab on US nonfarm payrolls data for further indications on the strength of the labor market. Manufacturing data from the European economies and China will also prove key short-term determinant for crude oil prices.
Good trades.
EUR USD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3586 and first resistance at 1.3629.
GBP USD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6736 and first resistance at 1.6790.
USD JPY
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.09 and first resistance at 102.61.
USD CHF
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8963 and first resistance at 0.8999.
USD CAD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0870 and first resistance at 1.0932.
AUD USD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9239 and first resistance at 0.9299.
Gold
Gold has its first support at $1241.00 and first resistance at $1250.30.
Silver
Silver has its first support at $18.69 and first resistance at $18.92.
Crude Oil
It has its first support at $101.86 and first resistance at $102.94.
Economic Snapshot
UK Nationwide house prices rose in May
UK construction PMI declined unexpectedly in May
Euro-zone preliminary consumer price index rose less than forecasts in May
Euro-zone unemployment rate declined unexpectedly in April
Italian unemployment rate remained unexpectedly steady in April
Spain unemployment declined in May
Australia retail sales rose less than expected in April
Australia’s current account deficit narrowed more than anticipated in Q1 2014
RBA maintained its key interest rate steady
China final Markit manufacturing PMI rose less than the preliminary estimate in May
China official non-manufacturing PMI rose in May
Forex Market Update 04Jun14
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly higher against most of the major currencies, ahead of the US ADP employment and service PMI data.
The EUR is trading lower as the latest batch of soft PMI data from the Euro-zone and its member nations weighed on the growth-outlook of the region, adding to speculation that the ECB would further ease its monetary policy at its meeting scheduled tomorrow. However, GDP in the 18-nation currency bloc rose at an expected annual pace in the first quarter 2014.
The GBP pared some of its initial losses after the Markit Economics reported that activities in UK’s service sector continued to remain in the expansion territory last month, even as it’s PMI ticked down to a reading of 58.6 in May from 58.7 in April.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the greenback traded mostly higher against the key currencies, as factory orders in the US rose for a third consecutive month in April. Adding to the bullish sentiment were comments from Fed’s Esther George, who urged the central bank to raise its interest rate at a “sooner and faster pace.”
In a noteworthy event, World Bank’s Managing Director, Bertrand Badre indicated that, despite the severe harsh winter in the US and prolonged low level of inflation in the Euro-zone, the bank does not expect a major change in its global growth forecast of 3.2% this year.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3614 against the USD, 0.10% lower from the New York close. In economic news, Euro-zone’s composite PMI eased more-than-expected in May but remained in the expansion territory for the eleventh straight month. Separately, data confirmed that Euro-bloc’s GDP rose at an expected pace in the first-quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3630 and a low of 1.3607. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.06% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3628.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3593 and first resistance at 1.3642.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6736 against the USD, 0.08% lower from the New York close. However, the GBP pared some of its initial losses after data revealed that activities in the UK’s service sector decelerated at a slower pace than expected in May. Also earlier today the BRC shop prices in the UK fell for the thirteenth consecutive month in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6750 and a low of 1.6705. Yesterday, the British Pound traded a tad lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6749.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6700 and first resistance at 1.6770.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.61 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.07% higher from the New York close. Data released overnight showed that Japan’s service sector PMI rose to a reading of 49.3 in May, just short of the 50.0 threshold mark of expansion. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.81 and a low of 102.54. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.14% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.54.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.33 and first resistance at 102.85.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8967 against the Swiss Franc, a tad higher from the New York close. Amid lack of major economic releases from the Swiss economy, later today, traders would eye global economic news for further cues in the currency pair. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8984 and a low of 0.8964. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.06% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8965.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8951 and first resistance at 0.8984.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0936 against the CAD, 0.25% higher from the New York close. Market participants keenly await the BoC’s interest rate decision and Canada’s trade balance data for further guidance in the Loonie. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0944 and a low of 1.0911. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.10% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0909.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0911 and first resistance at 1.0952.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9273 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.06% higher from the New York close, as data revealed that Australia’s GDP rose at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter of 2014. Separately, the AiG reported that activities in Australian service sector improved but failed to enter the expansion territory in May. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9300 and a low of 0.9258. AUD traded 0.11% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9267.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9244 and first resistance at 0.9301.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1245.90 per ounce, marginally higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1247.10 and a low of $1243.70 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded marginally higher, and closed at $1245.30, as a weakness in the US equity markets bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the metal.
Gold has its first support at $1241.43 and first resistance at $1249.13.
Silver
Silver is trading at $18.80 per ounce, 0.05% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $18.84 and a low of $18.74. Silver traded 0.08% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $18.79, amid soft demand for industrial metals.
Silver has its first support at $18.71 and first resistance at $18.88.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $103.42 per barrel, 0.60% higher from the New York close. Earlier today, reports showed that Libya’s daily oil output increased as protests at its Zelten and Raguba oil fields ended. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $103.44 and a low of $102.69. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.24% higher in the New York session, and closed at $102.80, as the API reported a more-than-expected 1.4 million barrels decline in the US crude inventories last week.
It has its first support at $102.62 and first resistance at $103.83.
Economic Snapshot
UK services PMI declined less than expected in May
Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the UK eased to a reading of 58.6 in May, compared to a reading of 58.7 reported in the previous month. Markets had expected the index to decline to a reading of 58.2 in May.
Euro-zone PPI declined as expected in April
On an annual basis, the producer price index (PPI) in the Euro-zone fell 1.2% in April, in line with market estimates and compared to a 1.6% decline recorded in the previous month.
Euro-zone economy grew in line with the preliminary estimate in Q1 2014
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the GDP in the Euro-zone rose 0.2% in the first quarter of 2014, in line with the preliminary estimate and compared to a similar pace of rise recorded in the previous quarter.
Euro-zone composite PMI declined more than the preliminary estimate in May
Markit final composite PMI in the Euro-zone declined to a reading of 53.5 in May from a level of 54.0 recorded in April, more than the preliminary estimate of a level of 53.9. Meanwhile, the final services PMI in the Euro-zone rose to a reading of 53.2 in May from a level of 53.1 recorded in April, but less than the preliminary estimate of a level of 53.5.
German services PMI increased less than the preliminary estimate in May
Markit Economics reported that the final services PMI in Germany rose to a reading of 56.0 in May from a level of 54.7 recorded in April, but less than the preliminary estimate of a level of 56.4.
France’s final services PMI declined more than the preliminary estimate in May
The final Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in France declined to a reading of 49.1 in May, more than the preliminary reading of 49.2, compared to a the final reading of 50.4 in the previous month.
Italian services PMI increased in May
Markit Economics reported that the services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in Italy increased to a reading of 51.6 in May, compared to a reading of 51.1 reported in the previous month.
Spain services PMI fell in May
The Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in Spain declined to a reading of 55.7 in May from a reading of 56.5 in the previous month.
Australia GDP rose more than expected in the Q1 2014
On a seasonally adjusted annual basis, GDP in Australia rose 3.5% in the first quarter of 2014, more than market estimates of a rise of 3.2% and compared to a revised 2.7% increase recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013.
China leading index rose in April
The leading index in China rose to a level of 100.11 in April, compared to a revised reading of 99.75 recorded in the previous month.
Good trades.
Forex Market Update 05Jun14
This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies.
The EUR is trading higher against the USD, benefited from a better-than-expected Euro-zone retail sales and German factory orders data for April. Looking forward, traders keenly await ECB’s June policy decision.
The GBP is trading higher ahead of the BoE’s interest rate and asset-purchase decision. Yesterday, a BoE official, Richard Sharp hinted that recovery in the domestic economy still remains fragile in nature, despite the latest batch of UK economic releases showing otherwise.
In Japan, BoJ’s Takehiro Sato opined that the BoJ should opt for a flexible policy approach in its path towards price stability, in order to “achieve a sustainable growth.” He further added that Japan-like disinflationary trend might now stay for a prolonged period of time in the Euro-zone.
Yesterday, the greenback traded higher against major counterparts in the New York session, following strong economic releases from the US service sector and after the Fed Beige book noted that all of the US 12 regions grew at a “modest to moderate” pace. However, another report showed that job creation in the US private sector slowed in May.
The CAD lost ground as the BoC kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0% and highlighted the need for a weaker Loonie to boost Canada’s exports.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3613 against the USD, 0.10% higher from the New York close, with focus on the ECB’s interest rate decision. On the economic front, retail sales in the Euro-zone registered their strongest annual growth in seven years in April while German factory orders rebounded on a month-on-month basis. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3618 and a low of 1.3597. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.21% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3600.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3591 and first resistance at 1.3638.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6769 against the USD, 0.19% higher from the New York close, ahead of BoE’s policy decision. In other economic news, UK Halifax house prices rose at the fastest month-on-month pace since October 2002 in April. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6770 and a low of 1.6737. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.16% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6737. A BoE policymaker, Richard Sharp, indicated that, despite the recent upbeat economic releases from the UK economy, the economy still remains in a fragile position.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6742 and first resistance at 1.6783.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.48 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.23% lower from the New York close. Earlier today, BoJ’s Takehiro Sato urged the central bank to opt for a flexible monetary-policy approach in order to attain price stability while warning that the Euro-zone economy might possibly slip into Japan-like deflationary trap. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.74 and a low of 102.49. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.22% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.72.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.35 and first resistance at 102.70.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8958 against the Swiss Franc, 0.16% lower from the New York close. Traders are expected to keep a close tab on global economic news for further cues in the currency pair, amid lack of economic releases from the Swiss economy. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8979 and a low of 0.8956. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.17% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8972.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8945 and first resistance at 0.8975.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0935 against the CAD, 0.06% lower from the New York close. Traders keenly await Canada’s building permits and Ivey PMI data for additional cues in the loonie. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0958 and a low of 1.0937. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.16% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0942, as the latter declined after the BoC kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0% while expressing concerns on Canada’s economic growth-outlook.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0913 and first resistance at 1.0957.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9287 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.11% higher from the New York close. Data released overnight showed that Australia unexpectedly posted its first monthly trade deficit since November 2013 in April as imports of capital and consumer goods rose sharply. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9291 and a low of 0.9265. AUD traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9277.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9266 and first resistance at 0.9300.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1244.30 per ounce, a tad lower from the New York close, as traders keenly await ECB’s policy decision for further guidance in gold prices. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1245.20 and a low of $1241.70 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.21% lower, and closed at $1244.40, amid broad gains in the US Dollar. However, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust rose by 1.8 tons to 787.08 tons on Tuesday.
Gold has its first support at $1240.83 and first resistance at $1248.63.
Silver
Silver is trading at $18.77 per ounce, 0.16% lower from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $18.83 and a low of $18.73. Silver traded 0.19% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $18.80, hurt by a stronger US Dollar and amid soft demand for industrial metals.
Silver has its first support at $18.70 and first resistance at $18.86.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $102.25 per barrel, 0.20% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $102.47 and a low of $102.12. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.76% lower in the New York session, and closed at $102.42, as easing tensions in Ukraine bolstered supply-outlook of the commodity. However, EIA’s weekly report, indicating a 3.4 million barrels fall in the US crude supplies, kept the commodity’s losses in check.
It has its first support at $101.68 and first resistance at $103.25.
Economic Snapshot
UK Halifax house prices rose more than expected in May
The Halifax house price index in the UK rose 3.9% in May, following a revised decrease of 0.3% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting Halifax house price index to rise 0.7% in May.
Euro-zone retail sales rose unexpectedly in April
On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted retail sales in the Euro-zone rose 0.4% in April, compared to a revised 0.1% rise recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting retail sales to remain steady in April.
German factory orders rebounded more than expected in April
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, factory orders in Germany climbed 3.1% in April, compared to a 2.8% decline in the previous month. Markets were expecting factory orders to rise 1.4% in April.
France unemployment rate remained unexpectedly steady in the Q1 2014
The ILO unemployment rate in France remained unchanged at 10.1% in Q1 2014, compared to a revised similar rate recorded in the previous quarter. Markets were expecting the ILO unemployment rate to rise to 10.3% in Q1 2014.
Japan economy likely to continue with moderate recovery trend, indicated BoJ’s Sato
A Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member, Takehiro Sato, opined that Japan’s moderate economic recovery is likely to resume from summer, supported by a gradual recovery in the nation’s exports. Sato further indicated that the central bank must conduct its monetary policy in a flexible manner, keeping a close watch on developments in the nation’s economic growth and inflation. Sato also stated that the disinflationary trend in the Euro-zone might be prolonged, primarily in the peripheral nations.
Australia’s trade balance unexpectedly swung to a deficit in April
Australia’s seasonally adjusted trade balance unexpectedly swung to a deficit of A$122.0 million in April, compared to a revised surplus of A$902.0 million recorded in the previous month. Markets had expected a trade surplus of A$510.0 million in April.
China Markit services sector activity declined in May
According to Markit Economics, the services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in China fell to a level of 50.7 in May from a level of 51.4 reported in the previous month.
Good trades.
Forex Market Update 06Jun14
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies. Earlier today, Fed Governor, Jerome Powell opined that the central bank’s forward guidance on interest rates has supported economic growth in the US.
The EUR is trading lower amid a mixed batch of economic releases from Germany. However, German Bundesbank, in its bi-annual report, projected the economy to expand at an annual pace of 1.9%. Yesterday, the Euro came under pressure for a brief period of time after the ECB imposed negative interest rates and introduced measures to encourage lending in the bloc and stimulate recovery in the region.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the greenback traded mostly lower against the key currencies, hurt by a more-than-expected rise in the weekly US jobless claims benefits for last week. Negative sentiment was also fuelled as Fed’s Narayana Kocherlakota urged the central bank to keep its interest rate low for nearly next 5 years to “achieve congressionally mandated goals.”
In the UK, the BoE kept its monetary policy intact for another month by keeping its interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and maintained the size of its QE package at £375.0 billion.
Following the G7 meeting, Japan’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe expressed confidence in economic recovery of Japan despite the recent sales-tax hike in April.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3630 against the USD, 0.23% lower from the New York close. Earlier today, Bundesbank raised its 2014 growth forecast on the Germany economy, further adding that Euro-zone’s largest economy is on a "robust" growth path. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3666 and a low of 1.3631. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.91% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3662, paring its initial losses, triggered by ECB’s decision to ease its policy further.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3532 and first resistance at 1.3700.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6815 against the USD, a tad higher from the New York close. Earlier today, data showed that Britain’s trade deficit widened in April while a BoE survey reflected that inflation expectations in the economy dropped to their lowest levels for more than four years. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6822 and a low of 1.6806. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.29% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6814. The BoE decided to keep its policy measures unchanged for another month at its June policy meeting.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6749 and first resistance at 1.6853.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.37 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, marginally lower from the New York close. Early morning, data showed that Japan’s leading economic index declined by 0.5 point to 106.6 while its coincident indicator fell by 3.4 points to 111.1 in April. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.46 and a low of 102.29. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.15% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.43. Yesterday, following the G7 meeting, Japan’s PM, Shinzo Abe expressed confidence in the recovery of his nation, despite the recent sale-tax hike.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.15 and first resistance at 102.67.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8934 against the Swiss Franc, 0.21% higher from the New York close. On the economic front, consumer prices in Switzerland increased for the first time in four months in May as Swiss industrial production rose at faster pace in the first quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8934 and a low of 0.8913. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 1.01% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8915.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8882 and first resistance at 0.9012.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0924 against the CAD, marginally lower from the New York close. Traders keenly await Canada’s employment data for further cues in the Canadian Dollar. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0930 and a low of 1.0914. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.08% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0925. In economic news, Canadian building permits rose for the first time in three months in April while the seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI in Canada unexpectedly contracted in May for the first time in five months.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0900 and first resistance at 1.0955.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9351 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.16% higher from the New York close. Overnight, the AiG performance of construction index in Australia improved in May. Meanwhile, the World Bank opined that reforms in China’s fiscal and financial sector would enable the nation to achieve its 2014 growth target and eliminate its debt problems. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9359 and a low of 0.9329. AUD traded 0.23% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9336.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9301 and first resistance at 0.9380.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1253.80 per ounce, slightly higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1256.90 and a low of $1252.90 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.15% lower, and closed at $1253.40, as a leading broking house slashed its price projections of the yellow metal for 2014-2015. However, earlier, gold prices advanced after the ECB introduced fresh stimulus measures in the Euro-zone economy.
Gold has its first support at $1244.03 and first resistance at $1260.73.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.09 per ounce, 0.24% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.15 and a low of $19.03. Silver traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.05, tracking losses in gold prices.
Silver has its first support at $18.79 and first resistance at $19.27.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $102.67 per barrel, 0.20% higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $102.75 and a low of $102.32. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.20% higher in the New York session, and closed at $102.43. However, prospects of easing supply-concerns in the Ukraine-Russian region and a rise in Libya’s output capped the gains in the oil prices.
It has its first support at $101.93 and first resistance at $103.08.
Economic Snapshot
UK’s total trade deficit widened more than expected in April
The total trade deficit of the UK widened to £2.5 billion in April from a revised deficit of £1.1 billion recorded in the previous month. Markets had expected the UK’s total trade deficit to widen to £1.5 billion in April.
UK’s consumer inflation expectations declined, indicated BoE
The consumer median inflation expectations for the next 12 months in the UK declined to 2.6%, compared to a rate of 2.8% recorded in February survey.
German trade balance widened more than expected in April
The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in Germany widened to €17.7 billion in April from a revised surplus of €15.0 billion recorded in the previous month. Markets had expected Germany’s trade surplus to widen to €15.1 billion in April.
German industrial production rose less than expected in April
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production in Germany rose 0.2% in April, compared to a revised 0.6% decline recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the seasonally adjusted industrial production to rise 0.4% in April.
German labor costs rose at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2014
On a working day adjusted annual basis, labor costs in Germany rose 1.1% in Q1 2014, compared to a revised 2.2% increase in the previous quarter.
France’s trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in April
Trade deficit of France narrowed to €3.9 billion in April from a revised deficit of €4.9 billion recorded in the previous month. Markets had expected France’s trade deficit to widen to €5.0 billion in April.
Swiss foreign currency reserves rose in May
Switzerland’s foreign currency reserves rose to CHF 444.35 billion in May, compared to reserves of CHF 438.95 billion recorded in the previous month.
Swiss consumer price index rose more than expected in May
On a monthly basis, the consumer price index in Switzerland increased 0.3% in May, compared to a 0.1% rise reported in the previous month. Markets were expecting the consumer price index to rise 0.2% in May.
Swiss industrial production rose at a faster pace in Q1 2014
On a working day adjusted annual basis, industrial production in Switzerland rose 0.5% in Q1 2014, compared to a revised 0.3% increase recorded in the previous quarter.
Japan preliminary leading economic index declined in April
The preliminary leading economic index in Japan fell to a level of 106.6 in April, compared to a reading of 107.1 reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, Japan’s preliminary coincident index also fell to a level of 111.1 in April, compared to a reading of 114.5 reported in the previous month.
Australia’s foreign exchange reserves rose in May
Australia’s foreign exchange reserves rose to A$ 65.1 at the end of May 2014 from A$ 62.1 billion of reserves recorded at the end of April 2014.
Good trades
EUR USD
Ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the Euro-zone’s industrial production, employment change, trade and investor confidence data. Additionally, the German inflation for May will also be closely watched.
GBP USD
Ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on manufacturing, industrial and the NIESR GDP estimate in the UK.
USD JPY
Ahead this week, investors have their plate full with a raft of economic data including machinery orders, machine tool orders, consumer confidence and industrial production data. Moreover, the Bank of Japan policy meeting will also remain crucial.
USD CHF
Ahead this week, market participants would eye the Swiss retail sales data along with a slew of global macroeconomic reports.
USD CAD
Traders will keep a close watch on the Canadian housing starts, capacity utilization and manufacturing shipments data this week.
AUD USD
Traders look forward to the NAB's business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence and employment data from Australia ahead this week.
Gold
Ahead this week, gold traders will be looking ahead to the US economic data for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery.
Crude Oil
In the week ahead, investors will keep a tab on US economic data for further indications on the strength of the nation’s economy. Market participants will also monitor political situation in Ukraine, with tensions continuing even after the election of the new President.
EUR USD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3530 and first resistance at 1.3609.
GBP USD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6782 and first resistance at 1.6819.
USD JPY
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.18 and first resistance at 102.58.
USD CHF
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8960 and first resistance at 0.9012.
USD CAD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0890 and first resistance at 1.0935.
AUD USD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9337 and first resistance at 0.9379.
Gold
Gold has its first support at $1249.90 and first resistance at $1257.10.
Silver
Silver has its first support at $18.96 and first resistance at $19.14.
Crude Oil
It has its first support at $103.53 and first resistance at $105.32.
Economic Snapshot
UK industrial production rose in line with market estimates in April
French industrial production rose less than expected in April
Italy’s final GDP declined in line with the preliminary estimate in Q1 2014
Swiss retail sales rose less than expected in April
Swiss unemployment rate remained unexpectedly steady in May
Australia NAB business confidence remained unchanged in May
Home loan approvals in Australia remain flat in April
China consumer price index rose more than expected in May
China producer prices declined in May
Good trades.
Forex Market Update 11Jun14
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies.
The EUR is trading lower against the USD. Earlier today, an ECB policymaker, Ardo Hansson opined that the central bank should mull over QE measures and “keep it on shelf for possible use.” Meanwhile, yesterday, ECB’s Jozef Makuch indicated that the central bank stands ready to act should its last week’s policy actions prove insufficient while German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble applauded ECB’s recent policy measures amid low inflation rate in the region.
Demand for the GBP rose after the ILO unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in more than five years in the three months to April while employment rose 345,000, the biggest increase since records began in 1971, thereby resulting in a fall in claimant count.
The NZD is trading higher, ahead of the RBNZ’s decision on its key interest rates, which is widely expected to be raised in June.
In a noteworthy event, the World Bank slashed its global growth projection to 2.8% in 2014, from earlier estimate of 3.2%, citing concerns on factors such as, Ukraine crisis and unusually cold weather in the US. Furthermore, it also downgraded US economic-growth estimates to 2.1% this year from 2.8%.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the greenback traded mixed against the key currencies, amid lack of major economic releases in the US.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3534 against the USD, 0.09% lower from the New York close. Earlier today, the World Bank, in its semi annual report, projected economic growth to pick-up in the Euro-zone and to meet its 1.1% target in 2014. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3548 and a low of 1.3524. Yesterday, the EUR traded a tad higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3546. However, earlier the EUR came under pressure as few ECB policymakers hinted that the ECB stands prepared to act further should it realize that its recent policy actions were insufficient.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3517 and first resistance at 1.3555.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6789 against the USD, 0.21% higher from the New York close, as UK’s April claimant count rate declined to 3.2% and after the UK ILO unemployment rate fell more than forecast to reach its lowest level in more than five years in the three months to April. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6798 and a low of 1.6745. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.07% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6754. The NIESR indicated that growth in the UK economy accelerated to reach its pre-recession peak in the three months to May.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6750 and first resistance at 1.6815.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.06 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.28% lower from the New York close. Data released overnight showed that the BSI index on Japanese large manufacturers’ sentiment fell to a negative territory in the second quarter while an index measuring prices of Japanese domestic corporate goods rose at a faster than anticipated pace in May. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.41 and a low of 102.09. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.08% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.35.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.91 and first resistance at 102.32.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9002 against the Swiss Franc, 0.11% higher from the New York close. Amid a lack of major economic releases in Switzerland, traders would eye global economic news for further cues in the currency pair. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9013 and a low of 0.8993. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.07% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8992.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8989 and first resistance at 0.9014.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0896 against the CAD, 0.07% lower from the New York close. Traders are expected to keep a tab on global economic news for further guidance in the currency pair amid a lack of major economic releases in Canada. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0906 and a low of 1.0891. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.06% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0904.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0880 and first resistance at 1.0918.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9395 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.26% higher from the New York close. In economic news, the Australian Westpac consumer confidence improved in June. Separately, RBA’s Sarv Girn urged Australian companies to adapt to new technology in order to avert a potential extinction. Meanwhile, the World Bank slashed its 2014 growth-forecast on China, Australia’s largest trading partner, to 7.6% in 2014. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9402 and a low of 0.9370. AUD traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9371.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9364 and first resistance at 0.9414.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1263.50 per ounce, 0.35% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1264.90 and a low of $1258.80 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.20% lower, and closed at $1259.10. However, a weakness in the US equity markets kept the commodity’s losses in check.
Gold has its first support at $1255.63 and first resistance at $1268.13.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.25 per ounce, 0.37% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.30 and a low of $19.17. Silver traded 0.16% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.18, on increased off take by industrial units.
Silver has its first support at $19.05 and first resistance at $19.37.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $104.69 per barrel, 0.40% higher from the New York close, ahead of EIA’s weekly crude supplies data and the outcome of OPEC meeting in Vienna. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $104.79 and a low of $104.25. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.33% lower in the New York session, and closed at $104.32, as API reported a 1.45 million barrels rise in the US crude inventories last week and after the EIA revealed that US May crude production rose to its highest level in 26 years.
It has its first support at $104.09 and first resistance at $105.17.
Economic Snapshot
World Bank trimmed its 2014 global growth forecast
The World Bank lowered its 2014 global growth forecast to 2.8% from the 3.2% growth rate estimated in January 2014, citing the unusually cold winter in the US and the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. The agency slashed its growth forecast for the US to 2.1% from its earlier estimate of 2.8% expansion.
UK ILO unemployment rate fell more than market expectations in April
The ILO unemployment rate in the UK fell to 6.6% for the February to April 2014 period, more than market expectations and compared to a rate of 6.8% recorded for January to March 2014.
Employment in the UK rose more than expected in April
The number of people employed in the UK rose by 345.0K for February to April 2014, more than market estimates of a rise of 270.0K and compared to a rise of 283.0K recorded for January to March 2014.
UK claimant count rate declined as expected in May
The claimant count rate in the UK fell to 3.2% in May, in line with market expectations and compared to a rate of 3.3% recorded in the previous month. Additionally, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK declined by 27.4K in May, compared to a revised fall of 28.4K recorded in the previous month.
UK average earnings rose less than expected in April
On an annual basis, average earnings excluding bonus in the UK rose 0.9% % for the February to April 2014 period, less than market expectations of a rise of 1.2% and compared to a 1.3% increase recorded for January to March 2014. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, average earnings including bonus in the UK rose 0.7% for February to April 2014, following a revised 1.9% increase recorded for January to March 2014.
Australia Westpac consumer confidence rebounded in June
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the Westpac consumer confidence index in Australia climbed 0.2% in June to a level of 93.2, compared to a 6.8% decrease and a level of 92.9 reported in the previous month.
Good trades.
Forex Market Update 12Jun14
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies, ahead of the US retail sales and weekly jobless claims data.
The EUR is trading lower against the USD even as the ECB, in its monthly bulletin, played down speculations for a deflationary situation in the Euro-zone economy. Yesterday, ECB’s Yves Mersch hinted that the central bank could purchase asset-backed securities as a part of its QE measure while French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin applauded ECB’s last week policy action to promote growth in the economy.
Earlier today, the AUD came under pressure for a brief period of time after data revealed that net employment in Australia declined for the first time in five-months in May even as unemployment rate in the nation remained unchanged at 5.8% for the third straight month.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the greenback traded mostly higher against the key currencies. Data showed that the US budget deficit shrank more than 6.0% from a year earlier to $130.0 billion in May. However, US Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lew expressed concerns on the present challenges faced by the US economy, despite data indicating that the economy has gained traction.
In the UK, a BoE policymaker, Ben Broadbent, acknowledged the economic perils from housing sector in the UK economy while hinting that the central bank could tighten its policy measures only when markets' risk appetite improved.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3520 against the USD, 0.10% lower from the New York close. On the economic front, the ECB, in its monthly report, opined that Euro-zone economy does not seem to be on the brink of deflation, despite recent fall in inflation rate, while another official report showed that the monthly industrial production in the Euro-bloc rebounded twice-as much as expected in April. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3550 and a low of 1.3522. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.08% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3534.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3503 and first resistance at 1.3547.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6829 against the USD, 0.23% higher from the New York close. Earlier today, the RICS reported that its index on house price balance in the UK rose more-than-expected in May. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6840 and a low of 1.6789. Yesterday, the British Pound traded a tad higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6791. A BoE policymaker, Ben Broadbent projected interest rate hike in the UK economy to be gradual due to the prevailing risks in the domestic housing market.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6787 and first resistance at 1.6856.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.97 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, marginally lower from the New York close. In economic news, machinery order in Japan fell at a slower than anticipated pace in April, pulling back from a record jump in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.15 and a low of 102.00. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded marginally higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.00.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.84 and first resistance at 102.13.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9008 against the Swiss Franc, 0.12% higher from the New York close. With no major economic releases in Switzerland later today, traders are expected to keep a tab on global economic news, along with US retail sales and weekly jobless claims data, for further guidance in the currency pair. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9013 and a low of 0.8995. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.08% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8997.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8987 and first resistance at 0.9021.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0857 against the CAD, 0.09% lower from the New York close. Traders keenly await Canada’s capacity utilization and new housing price data for further cues in the loonie. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0872 and a low of 1.0858. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.18% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0867. Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook for the senior debt and uninsured deposits of Canada’s seven largest banks to “Negative”, from “Stable.”
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0840 and first resistance at 1.0886.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9401 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.18% higher from the New York close. However, earlier the AUD came under pressure after data revealed that net employment in Australia fell for the first time in five months in May even as unemployment rate in the nation stood pat a 5.8% for the third straight month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9416 and a low of 0.9373. AUD traded 0.07% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9384.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9362 and first resistance at 0.9428.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1262.20 per ounce, 0.10% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1262.80 and a low of $1260.00 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.21% lower, and closed at $1260.90. However, losses in gold prices were limited as a weakness in global equity markets and World Bank’s decision to slash its forecast on global economic growth bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the metal.
Gold has its first support at $1258.70 and first resistance at $1265.60.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.24 per ounce, 0.26% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.25 and a low of $19.15. Silver traded 0.39% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.19.
Silver has its first support at $19.15 and first resistance at $19.33.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $105.54 per barrel, 1.00% higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $105.58 and a low of $104.35. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.11% higher in the New York session, and closed at $104.50, after the EIA reported a more-than-expected 2.6 million barrels drop in the US crude supplies last week and as fresh outburst of violence in Iraq renewed concerns on the supply-outlook of the commodity from the Middle East region. Separately, the OPEC left its production ceiling unchanged at 30 million barrels a day at its meeting in Vienna.
It has its first support at $104.61 and first resistance at $106.02.
Economic Snapshot
ECB might resort to further monetary policy easing measures if needed, indicated ECB’s monthly report
The European Central Bank (ECB) in its monthly report for June 2014, indicated that the Euro-zone economy would continue to recover at a moderate pace in the second quarter of 2014 and the central bank’s inflation expectations for the Euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored below, but close to 2.0%.
Euro-zone industrial production rose more than expected in April
On a working day adjusted annual basis, industrial production in the Euro-zone rose 1.4% in April, compared to a revised 0.2% rise recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting industrial production to rise 0.9% in April.
German WPI declined less than expected in May
On a monthly basis, Germany’s wholesale price index fell 0.1% in May, compared to a 0.2% rise recorded in the previous month. Markets had expected the wholesale price index to decline 0.3% in May.
France EU normalised consumer price index remained flat in May
On a monthly basis, France’s EU normalised consumer price index remained flat (0.0%) in May, compared to a similar change in the previous month. Markets had expected the EU normalised consumer price index to rise 0.1% in May.
France current account deficit widened in April
The current account deficit of France widened to €1.6 billion in April, following a deficit of €1.5 billion in the previous month.
Australia’s consumer inflation expectations declined in June
The consumer inflation expectations in Australia fell to 4.0% in June from a rate of 4.4% recorded in the previous month.
Australia’s unemployment rate remained unexpectedly steady in May
On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate in Australia remained unchanged at 5.8% in May, compared to the previous month. Markets had expected Australia’s unemployment rate to rise to 5.9% in May. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted number of people employed in Australia fell by 4.8K in May, compared to a revised rise of 10.3K recorded in the previous month.
Good trades.