Forex Market Update - page 5
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Forex Market Update 20Mar14
This morning, the greenback is trading mixed against most of the major currencies.
In Japan, the BoJ Governor, Kuroda indicated that there is high chances for the economy to reach its 2% inflation goal somewhere in the end of fiscal 2014 to the beginning of fiscal 2015.
The CHF is trading lower against the USD after the SNB kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.0% and maintained its cap on the Franc at 1.20 per EUR, stating that that the Swiss Franc at current level still remains high. The Swiss central bank also reiterated its expectations for the economy to expand 2% this year.
In yesterday’s New York trading session, the greenback traded higher against the key currencies, following Fed’s decision to slow-down the pace of its stimulus measure by another $10 billion and to drop 6.5% unemployment threshold as its sole factor in deciding the future of interest rate. Adding to the positive sentiment were comments from the Fed Chief, Janet Yellen, who projected an earlier-than-expected rise in the interest rates by the mid of 2015.
In the UK, the Chancellor, George Osborne projected Britain’s economy to grow faster than earlier estimates this year. Furthermore, he estimated the economy to add more 1.5 million jobs over next five year and revised down UK budget deficit to 6.6% this year, forecasting the deficit to turn in to a 0.2% surplus by 2018-19.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3802 against the USD, 0.14% lower from the New York close. In economic news, on an annual basis, Germany’s producer price index declined for the seventh successive month in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3846 and a low of 1.3804. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.68% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3822. The USD rose after the Fed in its policy meeting decided to further trim its monthly bond purchased by another $10 billion and gave a hawkish guidance.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3754 and first resistance at 1.3890.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6546 against the USD, 0.08% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6571 and a low of 1.6536. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.60% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6533. However, losses were limited after the UK Chancellor, George Osborne in his 2014 budget speech, projected a better than previously estimated growth in the UK economy.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6483 and first resistance at 1.6632.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.43 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, tad higher from the New York close. Earlier today, the BoJ Chief, Kuroda raised the chances for the Japanese economy to reach its 2% inflation target by the end of fiscal 2014 to the beginning of fiscal 2015. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.51 and a low of 102.25. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.82% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.40.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.70 and first resistance at 102.93.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8836 against the Swiss Franc, 0.20% higher from the New York close. The CHF declined after the SNB kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.0% and vowed to keep its cap on the Franc, citing strength in its domestic currency. On the economic front, Swiss trade surplus unexpectedly widened to CHF2.6 billion in February, from a surplus of CHF2.5 billion in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8840 and a low of 0.8804. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.86% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8818.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8767 and first resistance at 0.8872.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1249 against the CAD, 0.06% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1265 and a low of 1.1242. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.64% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1242. The Loonie came under pressure after Jim Flaherty announced his resignation as the Canadian Finance Minister and after Canada’s wholesales sales data failed to match analysts’ expectations for January.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1176 and first resistance at 1.1297.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9035 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.06% higher from the New York close. A report from the RBA, released overnight, showed that the a 10% real depreciation in the Aussie could increase the nation’s GDP by 1% over the next 2-3 years while a temporary 10% depreciation in the AUD could add 0.25% - 0.5% to the GDP over the next 1-2 years. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9041 and a low of 0.9010. AUD traded 0.97% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9030.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8981 and first resistance at 0.9107.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1328.08 per ounce, 0.09% lower from the New York close, as traders continued to cheer the Fed’s yesterday’s forecast for an interest rate hike. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1334.78 and a low of $1325.34 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 1.05% lower, and closed at $1329.33, as the USD advanced after the Fed’s tapered its stimulus package by another $10 billion and after the Fed Chief, Janet Yellen predicted an interest rate hike in 2015.
Gold has its first support at $1319.38 and first resistance at $1342.73.
Silver
Silver is trading at $20.33 per ounce, 1.40% lower from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.72 and a low of $20.24. Silver traded 0.42% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $20.62, as a stronger USD weighed on the demand-outlook of the commodity.
Silver has its first support at $20.08 and first resistance at $20.75.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $100.12 per barrel, 0.30% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $100.82 and a low of $100.10. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.28% higher in the New York session, and closed at $100.40, after an official report showed that inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma dropped for a seventh week and after Fed’s optimistic view on the US growth-outlook bolstered the demand-outlook of the commodity. However, the gains were capped after the EIA reported a more-than-expected rise of 5.85 million barrels in the US stockpiles, last week.
It has its first support at $99.45 and first resistance at $100.81.
Economic Snapshot
Germany producer price index remained flat in February
On a monthly basis, the producer price index in Germany remained flat in February, compared to a 0.1% fall reported in the previous month. Markets were expecting the producer price index to rise 0.1% in February.
Switzerland trade surplus rose in February
The Swiss Statistics Office reported that Switzerland posted a trade surplus of CHF 2.62 billion in February, compared to a revised surplus of CHF 2.55 billion recorded in the previous month.
Switzerland kept its interest rate steady
The Swiss National Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.00%, in line with market expectations.
Japan convenience store sales rose in February
On an annual basis, convenience store sales in Japan climbed 1.0% in February, following a decrease of 0.1% recorded in the preceding month.
Japan is moving steadily toward 2% inflation target, says BoJ’s Kuroda
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, indicated that there is a high chance that consumer prices would reach the central bank's 2.0% inflation target sometime from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2015. He further highlighted that upward pressure on consumer prices would rise helped by improvements in the supply demand balance, but the positive impact from energy prices would start to fade.
Australia RBA foreign exchange transaction rose in February
The RBA foreign exchange transaction rose to A$369.0 million in February, from a level of A$362.0 million in the previous month.
Happy pips.
Weekly Forex Update
For the week ended March 21, the US Dollar registered gains against its key peers, after the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its policy meeting, trimmed the size of its stimulus package by another $10 billion to $55 billion a month. Moreover, the Fed President, Janet Yellen hinted to an earlier-than-expected hike in the nation’s key interest rate by the mid of 2015. Positive sentiment for the greenback was also supported, after the Fed, in its annual test report of big banks' financial health, indicated that 29 out of the 30 major banks in the nation met the minimum hurdle to withstand a severe economic downturn.
Upbeat US economic data released during the week also boosted the USD. Initial jobless claims in the US increased to 320,000 for the week ended March 14, less than analysts’ expectations for a rise to 322,000. The US Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose more-than-forecast 0.5% in February, while the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index rebounded in March. Industrial production rose more-than-expected 0.6% (MoM) in February. Additionally, building permits rose more-than-expected in February, while consumer prices in the US rose 0.1% in February, in line with analysts’ projections.
Striking an upbeat note, the Fitch Ratings on Friday maintained its “AAA” ratings on the US and “stable” outlook on the country's ratings, dismissing concerns over a possible downgrade in March. However, risk sentiment took a hit after major rating agencies including Standard and Poor's and Fitch trimmed their outlook on Russia, reflecting concerns over the potential impact of the sanctions by the US and the European Union on the country after its controversial takeover of the Ukraine's autonomous region of Crimea.
The Euro backpedalled last week against the greenback, following the release of lackluster economic data from the Euro-zone. The consumer price inflation eased unexpectedly in February, raising fears of deflation in the bloc and adding pressure on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) to undertake further measures to support the region’s fragile economic recovery.
Meanwhile, despite the release of positive economic data from the UK, the Pound registered losses against most of its major peers. The CBI industrial orders survey report showed that the UK factory orders rose higher-than-expected in March, while the domestic public finances report revealed that government borrowings climbed in February. Also, number of people claiming jobless benefits declined in February.
The Loonie advanced on Friday, boosted by upbeat domestic retail sales, which rose above market expectations in January, while another report showed that Canadian inflation was higher-than-expected in February, reducing expectations of any cut in interest rates.
EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.86% lower against the USD and closed at 1.3794, after economic data from the Euro-zone and Germany disappointed investors, fuelling concerns over the economic outlook for the region. The ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany dropped to a seven-month low level of 46.6 in March, while the economic sentiment index in the Euro-zone declined to a level of 61.5. Adding to negative sentiment, consumer price inflation in the Euro-zone rose less than initially estimated in February, underlining concerns over the threat of deflation in the region. Moreover, the ECB Executive Board member, Sabine Lautenschlaeger, indicated that the interest rates would remain at current low level or go even lower for an extended period, until the economic condition in the region improves to a proper level. However, on Friday the Euro rose after consumer confidence in the bloc showed an improvement in March, while current account surplus expanded in January. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3949 and a low of 1.3748. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3712, with the next support expected at 1.3629. The first resistance is at 1.3913 and the next at 1.4031.
Traders are expecting significant action ahead in the week in Europe wherein manufacturing and services PMI from major economies are set to release. Additionally, consumer confidence and inflation data from Germany is also expected to garner market interest.
GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.97% lower against the USD and closed at 1.6486, despite the release of mostly upbeat domestic economic data in the UK, as market participants were mainly influenced by the US Fed Chief, Janet Yellen’s comments over a possible hike in interest rates in a year’s time. Meanwhile, persistent Ukrainian concerns continued to weigh on the GBP. However, losses were capped as the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne while presenting the UK budget for fiscal year 2014-15, indicated that the UK economy will register more-than-expected growth in 2014 and that the nation was on track to make a strong recovery. The minutes of the BoE meeting released during the week indicated that policymakers unanimously voted to retain the interest rate at 0.50% and quantitative easing at £375 billion. The pair traded at a high of 1.6668 and a low of 1.6475 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6418, with the next at 1.6350. Resistance exists first at 1.6611, and then at 1.6736.
Later this week, investors have their plate full with a raft of economic data including retail sales and housing data from the UK. Additionally, February’s inflation and fourth quarter growth data will be closely scrutinized for ascertaining near term trend in the GBP.
USD JPY
The USD traded 0.88% higher against the JPY over the past week, closing at 102.25, as investors favored the greenback in wake of Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen's comments on Wednesday, where she hinted that interest rate hikes were possible around the first half of 2015. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen traded on a weaker footing after data showed that the nation’s trade deficit narrowed less-than-forecast in February. Moreover, the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated that the central bank is on the path to achieve its 2% price stability target and will continue to monitor risks and alter policy appropriately to attain the same. However, the BoJ policymaker, Takahide Kiuchi cautioned that side effects of further monetary easing would outweigh the positive effects and that would undermine economic stability in the long run. The pair traded at a high of 102.70 and a low of 101.27. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.45, with the next support expected at 100.65. The first resistance is at 102.88 and the next at 103.50.
The Japanese Yen is expected to take further cues from the release of the consumer price index, unemployment rate and retail trade data from Japan, along with news flows emanating from both sides of the Atlantic and developments in Eastern Europe.
USD CHF
USD traded 1.20% higher against the CHF and closed at 0.8829 in the last week. The Swiss Franc came under pressure, after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) President, Thomas Jordan, indicated that the market’s perception of Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency poses a big challenge for monetary policy in the nation. Furthermore, he indicated that, despite the recent economic progress, the nation still remains far away from a full recovery. At its policy meeting, the SNB maintained status quo with regards to its monetary policy, leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.0-0.25%. Additionally, the SNB reinforced its cap on the Swiss Franc, citing that the currency remains strong and risks to global economic recovery continue to persist. Furthermore, the SNB lowered its inflation outlook for the nation, projecting that prices will stagnate for 2014 before climbing 0.2% for 2015. Meanwhile, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) lowered the growth outlook for Swiss economy marginally for 2014, while maintaining the estimate for 2015. Additionally, the ZEW economic expectations for Switzerland weakened for the third consecutive month in March. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.8870 and a low of 0.8714. The first support is at 0.8739, and the next at 0.8648. Resistance exists first at 0.8895, and then at 0.8960.
With little of note on the domestic economic calendar, investors will keep a tab on global news flows for further direction.
USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded 1.04% higher against the CAD and closed at 1.1221, after the US Fed chief, Janet Yellen earlier during the week outlined a schedule that Fed might hike interest rates around six months after the central bank wraps up its asset purchases programme. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar came under pressure, after the Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz hinted at potential weakness in the Canadian economy in the first quarter of the year and did not rule out an interest rate cut. However, the Loonie rallied on Friday after the release of upbeat Canadian inflation and retail sales data. The core consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7% (MoM) in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.5% gain, after a 0.2% gain the previous month. The CPI in Canada rose 0.8% last month, compared to an expectation for a 0.6% increase, after a 0.3% uptick in January. A separate report showed that retail sales in Canada rose more-than-expected 1.3% (MoM) in January, from downwardly revised 1.9% fall in December. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.1280 and a low of 1.1024 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.1070, with the next at 1.0919. The first resistance is at 1.1326, while the next is at 1.1431.
With no major domestic data scheduled for release during the week, the CAD is expected to closely track economic releases from the US and Europe for clarity on risk appetite among market participants.
AUD USD
AUD traded 0.59% higher against the USD last week, and closed at 0.9081. However, gains were capped as the minutes of the RBA’s March policy meeting revealed that the policymakers reiterated their stance to maintain record-low interest rates to support growth. With respect to currency levels, the RBA officials indicated that the drop in the Australian Dollar had helped the economy achieve balanced growth, but added that the “exchange rate remained high by historical standards”. Moreover, concerns about the Crimean referendum and sanctions imposed by the European Union and US on Russia further weighed on investors risk appetite. In economic news the Conference Board reported that its economic index for growth advanced 0.2% (MoM) in January, down from the upwardly revised 0.9% gain in December. A separate report by the Westpac and the Melbourne Institute showed that Australia's leading economic index declined sharply in February. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9140 and a low of 0.8995. The first support is at 0.9004, and the next at 0.8927. The first resistance is at 0.9149, and the next at 0.9217.
The RBA’s financial stability review report and the speeches by the central bank’s Governor and Deputy Governor is expected to remain on investors’ radar this week.
Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 3.50% lower against the USD and closed at USD1334.70, snapping its six-week rally, after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting hinted at an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike. Moreover, in line with expectations, the Fed further trimmed its monthly purchases by an additional $10 billion at its policy meeting. Meanwhile, the greenback also advanced on mostly upbeat US economic data and after Fitch Ratings affirmed US long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings at “AAA” with a “Stable” outlook. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1388.56 and a low of 1320.57 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1307.33 and the next at 1279.95. The first resistance is at 1375.32, while the next is at 1415.93.
Traders would focus on economic data from the US and events unfolding standoff between Russia and West for further guidance to yellow metal prices ahead this week.
Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 0.58% higher against the USD in the last week and closed at USD99.46, as traders continued to monitor events in the Eastern Europe, after Crimea’s vote to join Russia and the US and European Union’s sanction against Russia raised concerns over a disruption to supplies. However, gains were capped as lingering concerns on rising US crude stockpiles weighed on the demand prospect of the commodity. The Energy Information Administration reported a more-than-expected rise of 5.9 million barrels in the US crude stockpiles for the week ended March 14. Analysts had expected a rise of 2.6 million barrels in the US crude stockpiles. Earlier, the American Petroleum Institute reported that the crude inventories rose 5.9 million barrels for the similar period, more than double what traders forecasted. Moreover, the Fed in its monthly policy meeting gave an optimistic outlook for the US economy and further stated that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy for it to keep tapering. Oil traded at a high of 100.82 and a low of 97.37 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 97.61, while the next support exists at 95.77. The first resistance is at 101.06 and the next at 102.67.
Ahead in the week, investors will keep a tab on US data from the housing sector, as well as reports on consumer confidence and durable goods to further gauge the strength of the economy.
Happy pips.
EUR USD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3756 and first resistance at 1.3874.
GBP USD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6464 and first resistance at 1.6529.
USD JPY
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.00 and first resistance at 102.46.
USD CHF
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8785 and first resistance at 0.8865.
USD CAD
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1176 and first resistance at 1.1234.
AUD USD
Gold has its first support at $1306.34 and first resistance at $1324.38.
Silver
Silver has its first support at $19.92 and first resistance at $20.28.
Crude Oil
It has its first support at $99.29 and first resistance at $100.37.
Economic Snapshot
UK consumer price index rose in line with market estimate in February
UK PPI core output rose in February
Retail price index in UK rose more than market estimate in February
BBA mortgage approvals in the UK declined unexpectedly in February
German Ifo current assessment index climbed in March
France industrial business climate index rose as expected in March
Italy Non-EU trade balance swung to a surplus in February
Japan small business confidence index rose in March
China CB leading economic index rose at a faster pace in February
Forex Market Update 27Mar14
This morning, the greenback is trading mixed against most of the major currencies, ahead of the US fourth-quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims data.
Demand for the GBP rose after retail sales in the UK economy rose almost three times more than what economists had forecasted in February as spending on food surged.
The NZD is trading higher against its US counterpart after official data showed that strong Chinese demand for local primary products enabled New Zealand to post its biggest ever trade surplus in February. Meanwhile, the nation’s Finance Minister, Bill English revealed that the NZD is too strong at current level and may be unfavorable for exporters.
In yesterday’s New York trading session the greenback traded mostly lower against the key currencies. However, the USD pared some of its initial losses after data showed that durable goods orders rose at a faster pace than market expectations for February. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Fed Chief, James Bullard hinted towards the possibility of a bubble formation in the US economy as the Fed unwinds its stimulus measures while opining that raising inflation target from 2% to 4% would not be a good idea.
In the Euro-zone, an ECB Governing Council member, Luis Maria Linde stated that at present he sees a low risk of deflation in the Euro-zone economy, but at the same time he also warned that the economy could witness deflation in the coming future.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3756 against the USD, 0.22% lower from the New York close. In economic news, M3 money supply in the Euro-zone grew at an annual pace of 1.3% last month while lending to households and firms shrank further in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3798 and a low of 1.3758. Yesterday, the EUR traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3787, as traders mulled the prospect of additional stimulus measures by the ECB amid lack of strong economic signals from the Euro-zone economy.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3736 and first resistance at 1.3793.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6623 against the USD, 0.24% higher from the New York close, after data showed that retail sales rose in the UK rose more than expected in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6641 and a low of 1.6564. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.24% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6583, after a BoE policymaker, Martin Weale hinted that a pick-up in Britain’s economic recovery could lead to a gradual rise in the nation’s benchmark interest rate.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6551 and first resistance at 1.6668.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.17 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.11% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.30 and a low of 101.80. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.35% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.06. Late yesterday, Japan’s Economics Minister Akira Amari stated that the BoJ still has a role to play in the y eradication of deflation in the economy to a great extent. However, he did not pressurize the central bank for additional stimulus measures immediately.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.77 and first resistance at 102.53.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8862 against the Swiss Franc, 0.15% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8872 and a low of 0.8847. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.10% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8849. Yesterday, the SNB, in its quarterly bulletin, indicated that it would maintain its minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per EUR as the CHF at current level remains still high. The central bank also highlighted its readiness to undertake further policy measures to keep the minimum exchange rate intact.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8839 and first resistance at 0.8878.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1095 against the CAD, 0.08% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1108 and a low of 1.1085. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.51% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1104.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1055 and first resistance at 1.1153.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9231 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.08% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9246 and a low of 0.9219. AUD traded 0.17% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9224, giving back its initial gains, arising from the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens’ optimistic outlook on the growth of the Australian economy.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9214 and first resistance at 0.9247.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1294.29 per ounce, 0.79% lower from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1306.95 and a low of $1291.61 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.57% lower, and closed at $1304.56, as the latest batch of upbeat economic releases from the US dampened the demand for safe-haven assets. However, the losses were limited after a leading broking house upped its 2014 gold-price forecast to $1,250 per ounce from $1,205.
Gold has its first support at $1285.10 and first resistance at $1309.98.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.67 per ounce, 0.54% lower from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.86 and a low of $19.58. Silver traded 1.23% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.78, mirroring losses in the prices of industrial metals.
Silver has its first support at $19.45 and first resistance at $20.01.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $100.20 per barrel, tad higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $100.41 and a low of $100.03. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.48% higher in the New York session, and closed at $100.18, after data showed that crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined for an eighth week and after another report showed that political unrest triggered a fall in Libya’s oil output. However, the gains were capped after the EIA reported a more-than-expected rise of 6.6 million barrels in the US crude supplies last week.
It has its first support at $99.46 and first resistance at $100.70.
Economic Snapshot
UK retail sales rose more than market estimate in February
On an annual basis, retail sales in UK rose 3.7% in February, compared to a revised rise of 3.9% recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting retail sales to rise 2.4% in February. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, retail sales ex-fuel in UK rose 4.2% in February, compared to a revised rise of 4.4% recorded in the previous month.
Euro zone M3 money supply rose in line with market expectation
On an annual basis, M3 money supply in the Euro-zone rose 1.3% in February, in line with market expectations, following a rise of 1.2% recorded in the preceding month. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, private sector loans in the Euro-zone fell 2.2% in February, compared to a revised fall of 2.3% recorded in the previous month.
France consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in March
The consumer confidence index in France advanced to a level of 88.0 in March, compared to a reading of 85.0 reported in the previous month. Market had expected the consumer confidence index to remain steady in March.
Italy business confidence rose less than market estimate
Business confidence index in Italy edged up to a level of 99.2 in March, less than market expectation of a level of 99.5 but higher than a reading of 99.1 reported in the previous month.
Enough room for debate on efficiency of the Fed policies, indicated Fed’s Bullard
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis President, James Bullard, opined that although the central bank’s unconventional monetary policy has been effective, it has contributed to unnecessary global volatility and there remains sufficient room for debate on the issue.
Australia’s housing affordability index fell in the Q4 2013
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia Housing Industry Association (CBAHIA) has reported that the CBAHIA house affordability index in Australia dropped to a reading of 74.7 in Q4 2013, from a level of 75.1 in the previous quarter.
China industrial profits rose at a slower pace in February
On a year to date basis, industrial profits in China rose 9.4% for the first two months of 2014, compared to a 12.2% increase reported for the year 2013.
Happy pips.
Forex Market Update 28Mar14
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies. Earlier today, the Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, citing current low inflation and high unemployment rate in the US economy, projected the Fed to keep its interest rates at rock bottom until late 2015.
The EUR pared some of its initial losses after data showed that economic sentiment indicator in the Euro-zone rose more than expected in March to reach its highest level since July 2011.
The GBP initially came under pressure after the UK’s current account deficit barely narrowed in the fourth quarter from the record wide gap in the third quarter. However, the GBP reversed its losses after data showed that GDP came in line with market estimates for the fourth quarter.
The greenback traded mixed in the New York session yesterday, against the key currencies, amid a mixed batch of economic releases in the US economy. Data showed that US GDP rose faster than the preliminary estimate in the fourth quarter while the jobless claims unexpectedly came in at a four-month low reading last week. However, pending home sales in the US fell for an eighth consecutive month in February.
Separately, the Cleveland Fed President, Sandra Pianalto projected an optimistic outlook for the US economy but at the same time also opined that the economy is still short of the Fed’s employment and inflation goal.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3724 against the USD, 0.13% lower from the New York close, after data revealed that Spanish retail sales disappointed in February and consumer prices registered its first decline since October 2009. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone’s economic sentiment indicator and consumer confidence both showed an improvement in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3753 and a low of 1.3714. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.14% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3742.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3693 and first resistance at 1.3768.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6611 against the USD, tad higher from the New York close, after data showed that UK’s fourth-quarter GDP rose 2.7% (YoY) in line with market estimates while the Gfk consumer confidence in the UK improved to a level best seen since August 2007 in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6632 and a low of 1.6607. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.09% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6608.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6589 and first resistance at 1.6640.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.30 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.07% higher from the New York close. Data released overnight showed that, Japan’s annual national CPI rose 1.5% in February while unemployment rate declined to 3.6% last month. Separately, retail sales in Japan also rose more than market expectation in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.33 and a low of 102.11. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.07% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.22.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.04 and first resistance at 102.50.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8884 against the Swiss Franc, 0.18% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8900 and a low of 0.8866. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.10% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8868. Late Thursday, SNB’s Fritz Zurbruegg indicated that the central bank is ready to use variety of measures, including a negative interest rate to defend its cap on the Swiss franc.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8850 and first resistance at 0.8909.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1014 against the CAD, 0.18% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1036 and a low of 1.1005. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.58% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1034.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0973 and first resistance at 1.1081.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9264 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, marginally higher from the New York close, benefited from China's Premier, Li Keqiang supportive comments on the growth-outlook of the Chinese economy. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9297 and a low of 0.9259. AUD traded 0.29% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9260.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9227 and first resistance at 0.9299.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1297.15 per ounce, 0.46% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1299.02 and a low of $1290.92 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.36% lower, and closed at $1291.17, on the back of a strong US Dollar. Meanwhile, one of the leading broking houses trimmed its 2014 average price for spot gold by 8% to $1,225 an ounce.
Gold has its first support at $1290.86 and first resistance at $1301.80.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.84 per ounce, 0.62% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.93 and a low of $19.72. Silver traded 0.17% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.72. A leading broker cut its 2014 spot silver price forecast by 5% to $19.40.
Silver has its first support at $19.65 and first resistance at $19.98.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $101.74 per barrel, 0.50% higher from the New York close, amid lingering concerns on the supply outlook of the commodity. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $101.76 and a low of $101.18. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.09% higher in the New York session, and closed at $101.25, amid speculation that a strong domestic GDP data could spur demand for crude oil in the US.
It has its first support at $100.63 and first resistance at $102.30.
Economic Snapshot
UK Gfk consumer confidence improved more than anticipated in March
The GfK consumer confidence index in UK improved to a level of -5.0 in March, more than market forecasts and compared to a level of -7.0 recorded in the previous month.
UK economy expanded in line with the preliminary estimate in Q4 2013
On an annual basis, the final GDP in UK rose 2.7% in the Q4 2013, in line with preliminary estimate, following a 1.9% rise recorded in the previous quarter. Additionally, on a quarterly basis, final total business investment in the UK rose 2.4% in the Q4 2013, in line with preliminary estimate, following an increase of 2.0% recorded in the preceding quarter.
UK current account deficit narrowed in Q4 2013
The National Statistics has reported that UK’s current account deficit narrowed to £22.4 billion in Q4 2013, less than market estimates and compared to a revised deficit of £22.8 billion recorded in the previous quarter.
Industrial confidence in the Euro-zone improved unexpectedly in March
The industrial confidence index in the Euro-zone rose to a level of -3.3 in March, contradicting market estimates for the index to remain unchanged at previous month’s revised reading of -3.5. Meanwhile, the economic sentiment indicator in the Euro-zone rose to a level of 102.4 in March, compared to reading of 101.2 reported in the previous month. Additionally, the final consumer confidence in the Euro-zone came in unchanged at previous month’s revised reading of -9.3 in March.
Spain’s CPI unexpectedly fell in March
On an annual basis, the preliminary consumer price index (CPI) in Spain fell 0.2% in March, compared to a flat change recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the index to remain steady in March. Meanwhile, on a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales in Spain dropped 0.5% in February on a yearly basis, in line with market expectations and following a rise of 0.5% recorded in the preceding month.
Swiss economy likely to witness steady growth until the next year, indicated KOF Institute spring economic forecast
According to KOF Institute spring economic forecast 2014, the Swiss economy is anticipated to grow steadily until the end of next year. The report indicated that the gross domestic product of Switzerland is expected to rise 2.0% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015.
No rise in interest rate likely until second half of 2015, indicated Fed’s Evans
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President, Charles Evans, opined that the US Fed would have to maintain interest rates at the present record low levels until late 2015, given the low inflation and still-high unemployment rate in the US.
Happy pips.
Forex Market Update 31Mar14
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly higher against most of the major currencies, ahead of the Fed Chief, Janet Yellen’s planned speech, later today.
The EUR is trading higher against the USD despite a report indicating that annual consumer inflation rate in the region fell its lowest level since 2009. Separately data showed that retail sales in Germany jumped unexpectedly in February while French GDP rose in-line with markets estimates in the fourth quarter. During the weekend, the ECB’s Jens Weidmann opined that the Euro-zone economy was not in deflationary cycle and urged the central bank to stop over reacting to slowdown in inflation, largely triggered by cyclical factors.
The GBP came under pressure for a brief period of time, after data showed that UK mortgage approvals fell more-than-forecast in February while consumer credit fell again in February. Separately, the Hometrack house prices in the UK increased for a 14th consecutive month in March.
In Friday’s New York session, the greenback traded mixed against the key currencies, as a downbeat US Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment data overshadowed a strong personal income and personal spending data from the US. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed President, Esther George highlighted her expectations for inflation rate in the nation to gradually rise towards the central bank’s 2% target. Furthermore, she indicated that policymakers did not have a specific date in mind for raising interest rate.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3777 against the USD, 0.19% higher from the New York close, despite an official report showing that annual consumer inflation rate in the Euro-zone economy fell to 0.5% in March, the lowest level since November 2009. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3781 and a low of 1.3748. On Friday, the EUR traded 0.07% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3751. However, a lackluster German consumer inflation data capped the gains in the Euro-zone’s common currency.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3734 and first resistance at 1.3801.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6645 against the USD, flat from the New York close. In economic news, UK mortgage approvals declined to a four month low reading of 70,309 loans in February while consumer lending rose less-than-expected by £552.0 million last month. Overall net lending to individuals in the UK increased by £2.3 billion in February, up from previous month’s net lending of £2.1 billion. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6650 and a low of 1.6631. On Friday, the British Pound traded 0.12% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6645.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6612 and first resistance at 1.6665.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 103.23 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.41% higher from the New York close. The JPY came under pressure, after industrial production in Japan unexpectedly dropped in February while the Nomura/ JMMA manufacturing purchasing manager index slowed for the second straight month in March. Another report showed that annual housing starts in Japan registered a less than expected rise in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 103.28 and a low of 102.85. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.38% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.80.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.57 and first resistance at 103.58.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8857 against the Swiss Franc, 0.14% lower from the New York close. Earlier today, data from Switzerland showed that the KOF leading indicator edged down to a reading of 1.99 in March, defying analysts’ expectations for the indicator to come in unchanged at previous month’s reading of 2.03. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8891 and a low of 0.8858. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded tad higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8869.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8840 and first resistance at 0.8883.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1066 against the CAD, 0.10% higher from the New York close. Traders keenly await Canada’s January GDP data for further cues in the Canadian Dollar. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1069 and a low of 1.1047. On Friday, the USD traded 0.11% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1055.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1024 and first resistance at 1.1094.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9228 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.26% lower from the New York close. Early morning, the Housing Industry Association reported that sales of new homes in Australia rose in February on account of strong demand for detached houses while the RBA indicated that private sector credit rose 0.4% (MoM) in February, similar to previous month’s pace of rise. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9261 and a low of 0.9224. AUD traded 0.13% higher against the USD in the Friday’s New York session, and closed at 0.9252.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9206 and first resistance at 0.9261.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1296.14 per ounce, 0.07% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1298.73 and a low of $1290.40 per ounce. In the New York session on Friday, the yellow metal traded 0.37% higher, and closed at $1295.27
Gold has its first support at $1288.33 and first resistance at $1301.34.
Silver
Silver is trading at $20.00 per ounce, 0.86% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.00 and a low of $19.74. Silver traded 0.11% higher against the USD in the Friday’s New York session, and closed at $19.83, amid broad gains in the prices of industrial metals.
Silver has its first support at $19.75 and first resistance at $20.12.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $101.59 per barrel, 0.10% lower from the New York close, amid speculations that talks between the US and Russian diplomats would ease some concerns on the supply outlook of the commodity. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $101.73 and a low of $101.34. On Friday, Oil traded 0.23% lower in the New York session, and closed at $101.67. However, a rise in the US consumer spending and a 3.1% climb in China’s apparent oil demand kept the commodity’s losses in check.
It has its first support at $101.21 and first resistance at $102.11.
Economic Snapshot
UK mortgage approvals declined more than anticipated in February
The number of mortgage approvals for house purchases in the UK fell to a level of 70.3K in February, more than market expectation of a decline to 75.3K approvals and compared to revised 76.8K mortgage approvals reported in the previous month.
UK net consumer credit advanced less than expected in February
Net consumer credit in the UK rose by £0.55 billion in February, following a revised rise of £0.62 billion recorded in the prior month. Markets were expecting net consumer credit to rise by £0.70 billion in February.
Euro-zone consumer price index rose less than market expectation
On an annual basis, preliminary consumer price index in the Euro-zone rose 0.5% in March, compared to 0.7% rise in the previous month. Markets were expecting the consumer price index to rise 0.6% in March.
German retail sales rose in February
Federal Statistical Office of Germany reported that on an annual basis, retail sales in Germany rose 2.0% in February, compared to a 0.9% rise recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting retail sales to rise 0.8% in February.
France GDP rose in line with the preliminary estimate in Q4 2013
On a quarterly basis, final gross domestic product (GDP) in France advanced 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2013, in line with the preliminary estimate, compared to a flat change reported in the previous quarter.
Italy consumer price index climbed in line with market estimate
On an annual basis, the preliminary consumer price index in Italy rose 0.4% in March, in line with market expectations, compared to a 0.5% rise recorded in the previous month.
Swiss KOF leading indicator declined unexpectedly in March
The KOF leading indicator in Switzerland fell to a level of 1.99 in March, compared to a reading of 2.03 reported in the previous month. Market had expected the indicator to remain steady in March.
Japan construction orders climbed at a slower pace in February
On an annual basis, construction orders in Japan increased 12.3% in February, compared to a 15.2% rise recorded in the previous month. Additionally, on an annual basis, housing starts in Japan rose 1.0% in February, following an increase of 12.3% in the preceding month. Markets were expecting housing starts to increase 4.9% in February.
Australia HIA new home sales rose at a faster pace in February
On a monthly basis, the HIA new home sales in Australia climbed 4.6% in February, compared to a 0.5% rise in the previous month.
Private sector credit in Australia advanced at a faster pace in February
On an annual basis, private sector credit in Australia climbed 4.3% in February, compared to a 4.1% rise recorded in the previous month.
Happy pips.
Forex Market Update 02Abr14
This morning, the greenback is trading mixed against most of the major currencies, ahead of the US ADP employment data and few planned speeches from top Fed officials.
The EUR is trading tad lower against its US counterpart despite a 0.5% rise in the Euro-zone annual GDP data for the fourth quarter. Yesterday, the ECB Vice President, Vitor Constancio played down the prospect of deflation threats in the economy. However, at the same time he also noted that a prolonged period of low inflation rate could “constitute a drag on the economy’s recovery.”
The GBP is trading higher against the USD as UK house prices registered a rise for a 25th consecutive month in March and following a strong domestic construction PMI data which indicated that the sector was still performing strongly.
In Japan, a survey from the BOJ revealed corporate Japan is not confident about the central bank achieving its 2% inflation goal by the April 2015 target date, on the back of the 3% sales tax hike which came into effect from yesterday. Separately, another survey from the BOJ indicated that nearly 70% of Japanese households planned to cut back on spending after the hike in the nation’s sales tax.
In yesterday’s New York session the USD traded mostly higher against the key currencies. In economic news, the ISM reported a less-than-expected rise in the US manufacturing activities in March while Markit Economics reported that it’s PMI on the US manufacturing sector fell in the previous month.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3792 against the USD, tad lower from the New York close. Euro-zone’s annual GDP rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter while the producer price index dropped more-than-expected in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3821 and a low of 1.3790. Yesterday, the EUR traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3794. The ECB Vice President, Vitor Constancio expressed concerns on the prevailing low inflation in the Euro-zone but at the same time opined that there was no risk of deflation in the economy.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3777 and first resistance at 1.3814.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6644 against the USD, 0.08% higher from the New York close. In economic news, UK construction PMI edged down to a reading of 62.5 in March however it continued to remain in expansion territory. Separately, another report showed that the Nationwide house prices rose 0.4% (MoM) last month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6665 and a low of 1.6626. Yesterday, the British Pound traded slightly lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6631.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6620 and first resistance at 1.6667.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 103.82 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.13% higher from the New York close. A BoJ survey released overnight showed that Japanese firms expects consumer prices in the nation to rise to an average of 1.5% a year from now and to 1.7% three years and five years from now, suggesting that the BoJ plan’s to achieve 2% inflation could be at risk. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 103.95 and a low of 103.64. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.30% higher against the JPY, and closed at 103.69.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 103.43 and first resistance at 104.08.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8842 against the Swiss Franc, 0.06% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8846 and a low of 0.8824. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.12% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8837.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8822 and first resistance at 0.8854.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1020 against the CAD, 0.09% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1043 and a low of 1.1019. Yesterday, the USD traded tad lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1030. The Canadian Dollar advanced after data showed that Canada’s raw materials price index increased 5.7%, the most in almost three years in February and its industrial product price index rose 1.0% (MoM) in the same month.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0998 and first resistance at 1.1056.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9243 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, tad higher from the New York close. However, the Aussie’s initial gains were pared after a report showed the number of building approvals in Australia declined more than market expectations in February, raising concerns over the health of the nation’s housing sector. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9257 and a low of 0.9233. AUD traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9241.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9220 and first resistance at 0.9269.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1283.90 per ounce, 0.22% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1284.94 and a low of $1280.51 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.27% lower, and closed at $1281.02, following reports that showed holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust declined to 810.98 metric tons yesterday, the least since 7 March.
Gold has its first support at $1278.29 and first resistance at $1288.92.
Silver
Silver is trading at $19.88 per ounce, 0.43% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.91 and a low of $19.76. Silver traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.80, buoyed by gains in the prices of industrial metals.
Silver has its first support at $19.74 and first resistance at $19.97.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $99.68 per barrel, 0.10% higher from the New York close, ahead of the EIA report on the US weekly crude supplies. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $99.83 and a low of $99.37. Yesterday, Oil traded 1.56% lower in the New York session, and closed at $99.61, as the recent batch of dismal manufacturing PMI data from China and the US weighed on the demand-outlook of the commodity while easing tensions in Libya bolstered the supply prospect of the commodity. Separately, API reported an unexpected 5.8 million barrels drop in the US weekly crude inventory for last week.
It has its first support at $98.83 and first resistance at $100.99.
Economic Snapshot
UK Nationwide house prices rose at a slower pace in March
Nationwide reported that on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, house prices in UK rose 0.4% in March, compared to a revised increase of 0.7% recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting house prices to rise 0.8% in March.
UK construction PMI eased unexpectedly in March
The construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in UK eased unexpectedly to a reading of 62.5 in March, from a reading of 62.6 in the previous month. Market had expected the index to rise to a reading of 63.0 in March.
Euro-zone producer price index fell in February
On a monthly basis, the producer price index in the Euro-zone fell by 0.2% in February, compared to a 0.3% fall recorded in the previous month.
Euro-zone final GDP rose in Q4 2013
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, final gross domestic product (GDP) in the Euro-zone rose 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013, compared to a 0.1% rise recorded in the third quarter of 2013.
Unemployment in Spain declined in March
The number of people unemployed in Spain dropped by 16.6K in March, compared to a decline of 1.9K unemployed reported in the previous month.
Australia building approvals fell more than expected in February
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, building approvals in Australia dropped 5.0% in February, compared to a revised 6.9% increase in the previous month. Markets were expecting building approvals to fall 2.0% in February.
Happy pips.
Forex Market Update 08Abr14
This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies.
The GBP is trading higher against its US counterpart, ahead of the NIESR UK GDP estimates and following upbeat UK manufacturing and industrial production data for February. Earlier today, a survey from the British Chambers of Commerce indicated that recovery in the nation is “not yet secure” and continues to be “short term” in nature. The survey further revealed that UK service sector's export sales and orders came in at record levels and manufacturing sector was performing strongly as well.
Demand for the JPY rose after the BoJ, in its two-day policy meeting, kept its policy stance intact and suggested that the Japanese economy could withstand a sales-tax hike even without an immediate stimulus measure.
Yesterday, in the New York session, the greenback traded lower against the key currencies. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, highlighted the positive impact of the Fed’s ultra-easy policy measures on the recovery of the US economy and opined that the recent rebound in the US hiring confirmed that the nation is back on its track.
The EUR advanced against the USD after ECB’s Yves Mersch sought to downplay an urgent need for QE measures to combat deflation threats in the economy.
EUR USD
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3768 against the USD, 0.18% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3775 and a low of 1.3742. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.10% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3743, after an ECB policymaker, Yves Mersch played down concerns on deflation risks in the Euro-zone economy and opined that he did not see imminent need for QE measures by the ECB in the region.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3730 and first resistance at 1.3790.
GBP USD
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6714 against the USD, 0.64% higher from the New York close, after data showed that manufacturing production in the UK posted its biggest monthly increase since September 2013 and after UK’s industrial production rose more-than-expected in February, recovering from a flat reading in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6717 and a low of 1.6609. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.11% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6608.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6616 and first resistance at 1.6764.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.56 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.50% lower from the New York close. The JPY advanced after the BoJ maintained its monetary policy stance at its two-day policy meeting in April. Furthermore, the BoJ chief, Kuroda expressed confidence in the recovery of the economy and opined that the economy could withstand a sales tax hike without the help of immediate further monetary measures. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 103.14 and a low of 102.58. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.13% lower against the JPY, and closed at 103.08.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.28 and first resistance at 103.08.
USD CHF
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8860 against the Swiss Franc, 0.20% lower from the New York close. Demand for the CHF rose after data showed that the Swiss real retail sales rose more-than-expected 1.0% (YoY) in February, rebounding from a 0.1% drop in the preceding month. Meanwhile, the Swiss unemployment rate held steady at seasonally adjusted 3.2% in March, the highest since April 2010. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8881 and a low of 0.8859. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.17% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8878.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8836 and first resistance at 0.8897.
USD CAD
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0934 against the CAD, 0.36% lower from the New York close. Traders await Canada’s housing starts and building permits data for further cues in the Canadian Dollar. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0979 and a low of 1.0931. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.27% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0973. The Loonie gained ground after a quarterly survey from the BoC highlighted a brighter outlook for Canada’s corporate sector this year.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0901 and first resistance at 1.0989.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9336 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.73% higher from the New York close even as the National Australia Bank reported that its index on business confidence in Australia slipped to the lowest level since September’s Federal election while its business conditions index rose slightly in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9343 and a low of 0.9267. AUD traded 0.12% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9268.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9278 and first resistance at 0.9368.
Gold
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1312.67 per ounce, 1.18% higher from the New York close, on strong physical demand. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1314.53 and a low of $1297.00 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.13% lower, and closed at $1297.31 in a subdued trading session. Negative sentiment was also fuelled after a leading broking house indicated that gold remained its least preferred commodity among other metals as it expected a further fall in the prices of the yellow metal this year.
Gold has its first support at $1300.76 and first resistance at $1319.55.
Silver
Silver is trading at $20.18 per ounce, 1.51% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.18 and a low of $19.87. Silver traded 0.16% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.88. However, a broad decline in the prices of industrial metals capped the gains in the white metal.
Silver has its first support at $19.92 and first resistance at $20.31.
Crude Oil
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $101.29 per barrel, 0.60% higher from the New York close, on renewed concerns over Ukraine. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $101.44 and a low of $100.69. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.32% higher in the New York session, and closed at $100.69. However, the gains in the commodity were limited after reports indicated that rebels in Libya surrendered control of two oil ports to the government yesterday.
It has its first support at $100.33 and first resistance at $101.85.
Economic Snapshot
UK industrial production rose above expectation in February
On an annual basis, industrial production in the UK rose 2.7% in February, compared to a revised 2.8% increase recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting industrial production to increase 2.2% in February. Meanwhile, the UK manufacturing production rose 3.8% on an annual basis in February, compared to a revised 3.2% rise recorded in the preceding month.
France trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in February
France posted a trade deficit of €3.4 billion in February, less than market forecasts and compared to a revised deficit of €5.7 billion recorded in the previous month.
Unemployment rate in Switzerland declined in March
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate in Switzerland dropped to 3.3% in March, in line with market expectations and compared to a rate of 3.5% reported in the previous month.
Switzerland retail sales climbed in February
On an annual basis, real retail sales in Switzerland rose 1.0% in February, following a revised fall of 0.1% recorded in the preceding month.
BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.10% and has maintained its asset purchase program. The central bank has also kept its inflation outlook unchanged while reiterating that the nation's economy continues to recover at a moderate pace and that “inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole.”
Japan Eco Watchers Survey for current situation rose in March
The Eco Watchers Survey for the current situation in Japan rose to a level of 57.9 in March, compared to a reading of 53.0 reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Eco Watchers Survey for the future outlook in Japan dropped to a level of 34.7 in March, compared to a reading of 40.0 reported in the previous month.
Japan economic recovery on track, insisted BoJ’s Kuroda
The Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, opined that the moderate Japanese economic recovery is set to continue, driven by robust consumer demand, despite the 3% increase in sales tax which came into effect earlier this month.
Australia NAB business confidence fell in March
The National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index in Australia dropped to a level of 4.0 in March, compared to a reading of 7.0 recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, business conditions index in Australia rose to a level of 1.0 in March, compared to a flat reading in the previous month.
Happy pips.