Forex Market Update - page 3

 
Forex Market Update 07Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading mostly higher against its key peers.
Yesterday, the greenback came under pressure after data revealed that trade deficit in the US widened more than market estimates in December and after the Fed Boston President, Eric Rosengren expressed concerns over the US labor market condition, suggesting the central bank to be “quite patient” in withdrawing its stimulus measures.
However, a better-than-expected jobless claims data in the US capped greenback’s losses in check. Later today, traders would focus on the US non-farm payrolls data for further guidance.
The Euro advanced against the US Dollar yesterday, after the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi rejected the possibility of deflation in the Euro-zone economy. His comments followed the ECB’s decision to keep its interest rate unchanged at a record-low 0.25%.
The UK Pound is trading higher this morning, after the UK trade deficit narrowed to 1-1/2 year low in December. However, gains were capped after the release of the downbeat industrial and manufacturing production.
Yesterday, the Bank of England (BoE) refrained from altering its monetary policy and kept its interest rate at 0.5% and maintained its asset-purchase program at £375 billion.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3565 against the USD, 0.20% lower from the New York close. Earlier today, a report indicated that Germany’s trade surplus declined less than market expectations in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3595 and a low of 1.3565. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.66% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3592, after the ECB President, Mario Draghi and the ECB policymaker, Christian Noyer negated the possibility of deflation in the Euro-zone.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3491 and first resistance at 1.3629.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6341 against the USD, 0.10% higher from the New York close. Data released this morning indicated that trade deficit in the UK narrowed sharply in December, while the manufacturing and industrial production came in below market expectations. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6360 and a low of 1.6320. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.18% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6324. The BoE in its policy-meeting kept benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and maintained the size of its asset-purchase at £375 billion. 

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6289 and first resistance at 1.6377.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.15 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, marginally higher from the New York close. In economic news, leading economic index in Japan advanced to a reading of 112.1, while the coincident index rose to a reading of 111.7 in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.25 and a low of 101.99. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.63% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.11.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.51 and first resistance at 102.52.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9019 against the Swiss Franc, 0.11% higher from the New York close. Data released by the Federal Statistical Office revealed that Switzerland's retail sales increased at a weaker pace in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9023 and a low of 0.9005. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.50% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9009.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8970 and first resistance at 0.9067.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1065 against the CAD, slightly lower from the New York close, ahead of Canada’s employment data. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1081 and a low of 1.1062. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.06% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1070. In economic news, trade deficit in Canada jumped to the highest level since November 2012 in December, while the Ivey PMI expanded at a faster rate than expected to a 3- month high in January.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1034 and first resistance at 1.1110.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8950 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.08% lower from the New York close. Earlier today, the RBA upgraded its growth and inflation outlook for the Australian economy for 2014 and indicated that interest rates are likely to remain stable at current levels for an extended period of time. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8975 and a low of 0.8933. AUD traded 0.06% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8957.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8920 and first resistance at 0.8980.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1260.37 per ounce, 0.17% higher from the New York close, amid speculation that the return of Chinese buyers from a week-long holiday could spur demand for the yellow metal. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1264.45 and a low of $1256.29 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.35% lower, and closed at $1258.25.

Gold has its first support at $1253.10 and first resistance at $1267.56.

Silver
Silver is trading at $19.86 per ounce, 0.59% lower from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.98 and a low of $19.78. Silver traded 0.61% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.97.

Silver has its first support at $19.69 and first resistance at $20.10.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $97.43 per barrel, 0.60% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $98.02 and a low of $97.23. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.22% lower in the New York session, and closed at $97.97.

It has its first support at $96.83 and first resistance at $98.43.

Economic Snapshot

UK manufacturing production rose less than forecast in December
On an annual basis, manufacturing production in UK rose 1.5% in December, following a revised rise of 2.2% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting manufacturing production to rise 2.3% in December. On a monthly basis, manufacturing production in UK rose 0.3% in December, compared to a 0.1% revised decline in the previous month.

UK industrial production rose less than expected in December
On a monthly basis, industrial production in UK rose 0.4% in December, following a revised fall of 0.1% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting industrial production to rise 0.6% in December. On an annual basis, industrial production in UK advanced 1.8% in December, compared to a 2.1% revised increase recorded in the previous month.

UK’s total trade deficit narrowed more than expected in December
UK’s total trade deficit narrowed to £1.0 billion in December, from a revised deficit of £3.6 billion recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the UK’s total trade deficit to narrow to £3.1 billion in December.

German industrial production fell unexpectedly in December
On a monthly basis, industrial production in Germany dropped 0.6% in December, compared to a revised 2.4% increase in the previous month. Markets had expected industrial production to jump 0.5% in December.

France’s budget deficit decreased in December
France’s budget deficit narrowed to €74.87 billion in December, from a deficit of €86.98 billion recorded in the previous month.

French trade deficit narrowed in December
France posted a trade deficit of €5.2 billion in December, less than a revised deficit of €5.7 billion recorded in the previous month.

Swiss foreign currency reserves rose more than expectations in January
Foreign currency reserves in Switzerland rose to CHF437.7 billion in January, from CHF435.2 billion reported in the previous month. Markets were expecting foreign currency reserves to rise to CHF435.8 billion in January.

Spain industrial output rose at a slower pace in December
On an annual basis, calendar adjusted industrial output in Spain rose 1.7% in December, following a revised increase of 2.4% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting calendar adjusted industrial output to rise 2.4% in December

Swiss retail sales advanced at a slower pace in December
On an annual basis, real retail sales in Switzerland rose 2.3% in December, compared to a 4.2% increase recorded in the previous month.

Japan leading economic index advanced more than expected in December
The preliminary leading economic index in Japan rose to a reading of 112.1 in December, higher than market expectation of a level of 111.9 and compared to a revised reading of 111.0 reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, the preliminary coincident index rose to a level of 111.7 in December, higher than market expectation of a level of 111.5 and compared to a reading of 110.7 reported in the prior month.

RBA upgraded Australia’s growth and inflation forecasts
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) upgraded Australia’s growth and inflation forecasts for 2014 in its quarterly monetary policy statement. The central bank further stated that interest rates are likely to remain stable in the near future citing the improved economic outlook and the weak Australian Dollar.

China services PMI declined in January
China’s HSBC services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to a level of 50.7 in January, from a level of 50.9 reported in December.

Happy pips.
 
Weekly Forex Update

The US dollar traded broadly lower against its key peers, after manufacturing activity in the US fell to its lowest level in January. Additionally, non-farm payroll report revealed that the economy added fewer-than-expected jobs in January. Furthermore, trade deficit in world’s largest economy widened more-than-expected to $38.7 billion in December, while the US factory orders posted a decline of 1.5%, compared to a gain of 1.8% a month earlier.
However, losses in the greenback were capped as few Fed officials continued their support for further cut in stimulus measures. The Philadelphia Fed Chief, Charles Plosser urged the central bank to fasten the pace of QE3 tapering, while the Atlanta Fed President indicated that further cuts in bond purchases would continue and the QE3 programme might end by 2014.
The Euro rose against the USD after upbeat manufacturing PMI data released in Europe revealed that recovery in the bloc has gained “significant momentum” last month. Moreover, manufacturing activity in Greece returned to growth for the first time in more than four years in January, fuelling hopes that the country's long slump could be easing.
During the week, the European Central Bank decided to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and announced no additional easing measures to shore up slowing inflation. However, the ECB President, Mario Draghi indicated that the central bank is monitoring developments in the region and may take necessary action in its next policy meeting, if low inflation continues to persist.
The GBP retreated against its major peers. In the UK, the Bank of England left its key interest rates steady at 0.50% and made no change to its quantitative easing program. On the economic front, manufacturing PMI fell more-than-expected to 56.7 in January, while service sector growth slowed unexpectedly to a seven-month low in January. Additionally, the nation’s industrial production recovered at a slower-than-expected pace in December.
However, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) on Friday stated that the British economy will grow 2.5% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015, citing that consumer spending and buoyant housing market will drive domestic demand.
The Aussie gained sharply against the USD, after domestic retail sales, trade balance and business confidence data boosted investors’ risk appetite for the local dollar. To add to the positive tone, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Friday, upgraded its growth and inflation outlook for the Australian economy for 2014.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 0.86% higher against the USD and closed at 1.3620, following the release of mostly upbeat economic data across the European economies. Manufacturing PMI in the Euro-zone rose to 54.0 in January from 52.7 in December, while the German manufacturing PMI rose to a 32-month high of 56.5. Similar gauge in France rose to a four-month high in January. Additionally, peripheral countries in the Euro-zone also reported an increase in manufacturing activities in January. The common currency also rose after the ECB announced no new monetary easing measures at its policy meeting. Additionally, the central bank chief, Mario Draghi stated that the Euro zone will not slide into deflation. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3644 and a low of 1.3477. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3517, with the next support expected at 1.3413. The first resistance is at 1.3684, and the next at 1.3747.

Moving ahead, apart from the ECB’s monthly report and Mario Draghi’s speech, investors’ would keep a tab on the fourth quarter GDP data from the Euro-zone and Germany.

GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.19% lower against the USD and closed at 1.6408, as dismal domestic data dampened investors’ sentiment towards the Pound. Manufacturing activity in the UK fell unexpectedly in January, while expansion in the services sector eased last month, pointing towards a weak start to 2014. Data released on Friday, showed that industrial and manufacturing output in the UK rose less than market expectations. The pair traded at a high of 1.6440 and a low of 1.6252 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6293, with the next at 1.6179. Resistance exists first at 1.6481, and then at 1.6555.

Investors look forward to the central bank’s Quarterly Inflation Report this week.

USD JPY
The USD traded flat against the JPY over the past week, closing at 102.35. The Yen came under pressure on Thursday, after the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor, Hiroshi Nakaso indicated that the central bank will take all the necessary steps to adjust  policies if risks emanating from emerging markets come in the way of achieving its 2% inflation target. Another Deputy Governor, Kikuo Iwata echoed a similar view and said that the central bank would continue its stimulus measures until the 2% inflation target is achieved in a stable manner. In economic news, the leading economic index in Japan advanced to 112.1 in December, marking the fourth successive rise, while the coincident index rose to a reading of 111.7 from 110.7 in November.  The pair traded at a high of 102.59 and a low of 100.75. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.20, with the next support expected at 100.06. 
The first resistance is at 103.04, and the next at 103.74.

Apart from domestic economic data, traders would focus on the global news ahead in the week.

USD CHF
USD traded 0.77% lower against the CHF and closed at 0.8981 in the last week. In economic news, consumer sentiment in Switzerland improved sharply in Q4 2013. A separate report indicated that Switzerland’s trade surplus narrowed more-than-expected in December, while the Swiss retail sales increased at a weaker pace in December. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.9083 and a low of 0.8959. The first support is at 0.8948, and the next at 0.8892. Resistance exists first at 0.9072, and then at 0.9140.

Apart from external cues, traders would focus on the Swiss unemployment rate and inflation data for January to offer further guidance in the pair.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded 0.74% lower against the CAD and closed at 1.1038. The Canadian Dollar rose after the Ivey PMI advanced to a reading of 56.8 in January. The gains were further strengthened after data on Friday revealed that the Canadian economy added 29,400 more jobs in January, while the jobless rate fell to 7.0% from 7.2% recorded in the previous month. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.1135 and a low of 1.0966 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0958, with the next at 1.0877. The first resistance is at 1.1127, while the next is at 1.1215.

With no major domestic data scheduled for release during the week, the CAD is expected to closely track global economic news for clarity on risk appetite among market participants.

AUD USD
AUD traded 2.39% higher against the USD last week, and closed at 0.8961, after the RBA left its interest rate unchanged at 2.5% and indicated that the current monetary policy is appropriate to support sustainable growth. On Friday, the central bank raised the nation’s growth and inflation forecasts for 2014. On the data front, trade surplus in Australia widened sharply in December, while retail sales climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.5% (MoM) for the same period. Moreover, the NAB business confidence rose in Q4 2013, hitting a two-and-a-half year high. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9000 and a low of 0.8729. The first support is at 0.8793, and the next at 0.8626. The first resistance is at 0.9064, and the next at 0.9168.

The Australian employment and consumer confidence report later this week remain the main domestic triggers to determine the near term trend for the Aussie.

Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 1.64% higher against the USD and closed at USD1265.01, as the greenback weakened on disappointing economic data released in the US. The USD further came under pressure after data on Friday showed that job creation in the US slowed further in January. Gold prices also rose amid hopes that demand from China would rebound as the markets in the nation re-opened after a week long holiday for the Lunar New Year, boosting volumes for the precious metal. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1274.73 and a low of 1240.97 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1245.74 and the next at 1226.48. The first resistance is at 1279.50, while the next is at 1294.00.

In the week ahead, the Federal Reserve new chief, Janet Yellen will testify before Congress on the bank’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in Washington. Her comments will be closely watched, in the light of Friday’s tepid jobs report.

Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 2.70% higher against the USD in the last week, to close at USD100.10. Oil traders were disappointed from the economic data released last week in China and the US, world’s largest oil consumers. Despite this, oil prices rose as persistently cold weather across the US boosted heating fuel demand. Additionally, upbeat manufacturing PMI data from Europe supported gains in oil prices. On the US oil inventory front, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a less-than-expected 384,000 barrels rise in the US crude stockpiles for the week ended January 31, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that crude oil inventories rose by 440,000 barrels. Oil traded at a high of 100.24 and a low of 96.26 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 97.49, while the next support exists at 94.89. The first resistance is at 101.47, and the next at 102.85.

Ahead in the week, the EIA, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are all scheduled to release monthly reports on the oil market.

Happy pips
 
Forex Market Update 11Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies, ahead of Janet Yellen’s first public speech as the head of the Federal Reserve. Additionally, a speech by the Philadelphia Fed President, Charles Plosser, will also gain market attention today.
In the UK, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) raised the nation’s growth projection for 2014 and further indicated that the economy may gain strength from business investment this year.
The Euro is trading higher against the US Dollar. Earlier today, German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble opined that the recent turmoil in the emerging markets would have a negative impact on the Euro-zone’s export sector. He also agreed to the ECB President Mario Draghi viewpoint and indicated that falling prices were not a danger for the Euro-zone, despite a drop in the bloc's inflation rate to 0.7% last month and warnings from the IMF that deflation is a potential risk.
Yesterday, the Canadian Dollar declined against the greenback after data showed that housing starts in Canada slowed more than analysts’ expectations in January. The Canadian Dollar also faced some resistance after the Bank of Canada (BoC) Deputy Governor, John Murray stated that a weakness in the Loonie and strengthening of the global economy would foster broader economic growth in the Canada.
The greenback traded mostly lower in the New York session yesterday, against the key currencies.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3672 against the USD, 0.21% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3684 and a low of 1.3644. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.07% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3644, after Euro-zone Sentix investor confidence rose unexpectedly in February.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3635 and first resistance at 1.3697.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6425 against the USD, 0.13% higher from the New York close, after the CBI upgraded its 2014 growth projection for the Britain’s economy. In economic news, the BRC retail sales monitor in the UK advanced more than analysts’ expectations in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6442 and a low of 1.6400. Yesterday, the British Pound traded marginally higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6403.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6393 and first resistance at 1.6450.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.41 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.14% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.49 and a low of 102.11. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.13% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.26.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.10 and first resistance at 102.60.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8955 against the Swiss Franc, 0.16% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8972 and a low of 0.8948. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded slightly lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8969.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8936 and first resistance at 0.8978.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1059 against the CAD, tad higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1092 and a low of 1.1056. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.19% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1058. The Canadian Dollar declined against its US counterpart after the housing starts in Canada fell more-than-expected in January. Meanwhile, the BoC Deputy Governor, John Murray highlighted the need of a weaker Loonie for the growth of the Canadian economy. 

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1028 and first resistance at 1.1091.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9027 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.85% higher from the New York close. Earlier today, in Australia, data showed that home loans declined in December while the house prices rose 3.4% in the fourth quarter. Separately, the National Australia Bank reported that business conditions in the nation rose to the highest level in nearly three years in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9040 and a low of 0.8946. AUD traded 0.18% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8951.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8951 and first resistance at 0.9072.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1283.35 per ounce, 0.67% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1287.80 and a low of $1273.91 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded marginally higher, and closed at $1274.85.

Gold has its first support at $1274.15 and first resistance at $1290.17.

Silver
Silver is trading at $20.17 per ounce, 0.43% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.27 and a low of $20.06. Silver traded 0.75% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $20.08.

Silver has its first support at $20.04 and first resistance at $20.30.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $100.35 per barrel, 0.40% higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $100.49 and a low of $99.88. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.38% higher in the New York session, and closed at $99.98. An industry report revealed that oil production by the OPEC nations edged higher by 150,000 barrels per day in January.

It has its first support at $99.61 and first resistance at $100.82.

Economic Snapshot

UK BRC retail sales rose more than forecasts in January
On an annual basis, like-for-like retail sales in the UK rose 3.9% in January, compared to a 0.4% rise recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the UK retail sales to rise 0.8% in January.

CBI upgraded UK’s 2014 economic growth forecast
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has forecast that the UK’s economy would expand by 2.6% in 2014, up from its November forecast for a growth of 2.4%. Meanwhile, it downgraded UK’s 2015 growth forecast to 2.5%, from its earlier estimate of 2.6%.

Home loan approvals in Australia fell unexpectedly in December
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, home loan approvals in Australia fell 1.9% in December, following a revised 1.4% increase recorded in the preceding month. Market had expected Australia’s home loan approvals to rise 0.7% in December. Meanwhile investment lending in Australia rose 2.9% in December, following a revised rise of 2.0% recorded in the previous month.

Australia NAB business confidence advanced in January
Business confidence in Australia advanced to a level of 8.0 in January, compared to a reading of 6.0 recorded in the previous month. Similarly, business conditions in Australia rose to a reading of 4.0 in January, from a revised level of 3.0 in the previous month.

Australian house prices rose more than forecasts in Q4 2013
On a quarterly basis, the house price index (HPI) in Australia rose 3.4% in Q4 2013, compared to an upwardly revised rise of 2.4% recorded in the previous quarter. Market had expected the house price index to rise 3.0% in Q4 2013.

Happy pips.
 
Forex Market Update 13Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies.
Yesterday, the St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard stated that Fed would be very cautious in altering the tapering pace of its stimulus measure and any change in the course of the taper would give strong signals to the markets. He further opined that the recent batch of lackluster economic US releases would not have any impact on the Fed decision to taper its stimulus.
The Euro is trading higher this morning. Earlier today, the ECB’s monthly report reiterated its forward guidance on keeping interest rates at present or lower levels for an extended period of time and further highlighted that the inflation in the region remained subdued.
Yesterday, the Euro-bloc’s common currency faced resistance following ECB member, Benoit Coeure’s comments that the central bank might consider a negative interest rate in the region to support the fragile recovery of the economy. 
In a noteworthy development, the Italian government successfully auctioned its 3-year bond at a record low yield of 1.41%, compared to a 1.51% yield recorded in January 2013.
The Australian Dollar is trading lower against its US counterpart after unemployment in the nation unexpectedly rose to the highest level in more than 10 years and after the IMF stated that the Aussie is overvalued at present.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3673 against the USD, 0.58% higher from the New York close. The greenback came under pressure amid concerns that today’s retail sales report may prove to be a disappointment. The ECB, in its monthly report, emphasized that it would continue with its forward guidance on keeping interest rates at current or lower level for a prolonged period of time in the Euro-zone. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3687 and a low of 1.3589. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.13% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3594.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3594 and first resistance at 1.3720.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6646 against the USD, 0.30% higher from the New York close, despite a slide in the RICS house price index. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6655 and a low of 1.6601. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.47% higher versus the Dollar in the New 
York session, and closed at 1.6597, after the BoE’s upbeat growth-forecast on the Britain economy.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6541 and first resistance at 1.6703.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.95 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.58% lower from the New York close. On the economic front, data from Japan showed that the nation’s domestic corporate goods price index eased in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.58 and a low of 101.95. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.25% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.54.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.66 and first resistance at 102.44.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8934 against the Swiss Franc, 0.79% lower from the New York close. Early morning, the Federal Statistical Office reported that, on a monthly basis, producer and import prices in Switzerland stood unchanged in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9011 and a low of 0.8936. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.16% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9005.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8892 and first resistance at 0.9007.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0985 against the CAD, 0.17% lower from the New York close, ahead of Canada’s new housing price index data. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1019 and a low of 1.0981. Yesterday, the USD traded marginally lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1004. Canadian Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty, hinted towards more stimulus measures if disinflation refuses to budge in the economy.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0966 and first resistance at 1.1011.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8966 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.64% lower from the New York close, after data showed that unemployment in Australia unexpectedly jumped to 6.0% in January and following IMF’s downbeat assessment of the Aussie. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9033 and a low of 0.8934. AUD traded 0.12% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9024.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8909 and first resistance at 0.9039.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1290.64 per ounce, 0.07% lower from the New York close, ahead of US retail sales data. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1293.29 and a low of $1286.35 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded slightly higher, and closed at $1291.58.

Gold has its first support at $1285.89 and first resistance at $1295.86.

Silver
Silver is trading at $20.22 per ounce, 0.14% lower from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.33 and a low of $20.15. Silver traded 0.21% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $20.25.

Silver has its first support at $20.10 and first resistance at $20.37.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $99.66 per barrel, 0.60% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $100.37 and a low of $99.40. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.20% lower in the New York session, and closed at $100.29, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a rise of 3.3 million barrels in the US weekly stockpiles, last week.

It has its first support at $98.91 and first resistance at $100.89.

Economic Snapshot

UK RICS house price balance fell unexpectedly in January
The RICS house price balance in the UK dropped to a level of 53.0% in January, following an increase of 56.0% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting house price balance to rise to 58.0% in January.

ECB reiterated forward guidance on interest rates
The European Central Bank (ECB), in its monthly report for February, reiterated its forward guidance on keeping interest rates at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. The central bank, however, stated that it would maintain its monetary accommodation and might take further decisive action if required.

German harmonized consumer price index declined in line with preliminary estimate in January
On an annual basis, final harmonized consumer price (HICP) index in Germany increased 1.2% in January, compared to a similar rise in the previous month. Similarly, on an annual basis, final consumer price index in Germany rose 1.3% in January, following a 1.4% rise in prior month.

Swiss producer and import prices remained flat in January
On a monthly basis, producer and import prices in Switzerland remained flat in January, compared to the previous month. Markets were expecting producer and import prices to drop 0.1% in January.

US Senate approved debt ceiling hike
The US Senate approved a House-passed bill by a vote of 55 to 43 with no conditions or amendments attached to extend the government’s borrowing limit through March 2015 after a prolonged preliminary vote. The bill now awaits President Barack Obama’s signature.

Australia consumer inflation expectation remained unchanged in February
Consumer inflation expectations in Australia remained unchanged at 2.3% in February, compared to the previous month.

Australia’s unemployment rate rose more than expected in January
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that on a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate in Australia rose to 6.0% in January, more than market expectations and compared to a rate of 5.8% reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted number of people employed in Australia fell by 3.7K in January, compared to a revised fall of 23.0K in the previous month. Seasonally adjusted full time employment in Australia declined by 7.1K in January, compared to a revised drop of 32.1K employees recorded in the previous month.

Happy pips.
 

Forex Market Update 14Fev14


This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies amid concerns over today’s reports of industrial output and Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment.

Yesterday, the US dollar declined against major counterparts in the New York session, as an unexpected fall in the US retail sales data for January and a surprise rise in the weekly US jobless claims during the previous week, spurred fresh concerns on the growth prospect of the US economy. 

The Euro is trading higher against the US Dollar, as growth in the Euro-zone economy expanded at a faster pace than expected in the fourth quarter. Additionally, France and Germany, both reported a better than expected economic growth in the fourth quarter, raising hopes of a broader recovery in the region.

The UK Pound today extended its yesterday’s gains arising from BoE Chief Economist, Spencer Dale’s comments about 2015 interest rate hike as UK construction output expanded during the fourth quarter.

Earlier today, in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor, Christopher Kent, welcomed a further depreciation in the Australian Dollar, suggesting that such a scenario would add a little to inflation. Furthermore, he opined that a weaker Aussie could prove beneficial for the economic growth of the nation.  Meanwhile, today’s upbeat inflation report from China veered the positive market sentiment towards the Aussie.


EUR USD

This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3694 against the USD, 0.11% higher from the New York close, as traders cheered better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP data from the Euro-zone as well as Germany and France. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3714 and a low of 1.3677. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.07% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3679.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3662 and first resistance at 1.3720.


GBP USD

At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6702 against the USD, 0.26% higher from the New York close, and hovered near its strongest level since May 2011, as UK construction output increased 0.2% QoQ in the fourth quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6717 and a low of 1.6649. Yesterday, the British Pound finished 0.10% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6658, after the BoE Chief Economist, Spencer Dale, hinted that investors’ bets for an interest-rate hike in the UK economy within two years were reasonable.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6644 and first resistance at 1.6739.


USD JPY

The USD is trading at 101.85 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.33% lower from the New York close, as investors speculated that US industrial output growth would slow and consumer sentiment would come under pressure. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.42 and a low of 101.66. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.16% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.19.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.47 and first resistance at 102.33.


USD CHF

This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8928 against the Swiss Franc, 0.06% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8942 and a low of 0.8914. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded marginally lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8933, hurt by a lackluster US retail sales and weekly jobless claims data.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8904 and first resistance at 0.8952.


USD CAD

At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0951 against the CAD, 0.28% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0984 and a low of 1.0950. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.08% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0982. On the economic front, data from Canada showed that new housing price index rose 0.1%, on a monthly basis in December.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0921 and first resistance at 1.1005.


AUD USD

The AUD is trading at 0.9026 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.61% higher from the New York close. Earlier today, the RBA Assistant Governor, Christopher Kent acknowledged the recent fall in the Aussie and opined that a further deprecation in the local currency would assist the nation’s economic growth. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9045 and a low of 0.8973. AUD traded 0.07% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8971.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8968 and first resistance at 0.9065.


Gold

At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1310.97 per ounce, 0.65% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1312.65 and a low of $1300.00 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.80% higher, and closed at $1302.50, as investors favored the safe-haven metal amid the latest batch of downbeat US economic data.


Gold has its first support at $1296.56 and first resistance at $1319.01.


Silver

Silver is trading at $20.94 per ounce, 2.19% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.96 and a low of $20.46. Silver traded 1.09% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $20.50, amid a weaker US Dollar.


Silver has its first support at $20.45 and first resistance at $21.20.


Crude Oil

At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $99.90 per barrel, 0.50% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $100.47 and a low of $99.78. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.55% higher in the New York session, and closed at $100.36, as a winter storm in the US bolstered the demand prospect of the commodity while a social unrest in Libya weighed on the supply outlook of the commodity.


It has its first support at $99.37 and first resistance at $100.55.


Economic Snapshot


UK construction output rose less than market expectations in December

On an annual basis, construction output in the UK rose 6.3% in December, following a downwardly revised rise of 2.0% recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting construction output to rise 6.4% in December.


Euro-zone trade surplus narrowed more than expected in December

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Euro-zone trade surplus narrowed to €13.9 billion in December from a revised surplus of €17.0 billion recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the Euro-zone’s trade surplus to narrow to €14.5 billion in December.


Euro-zone economy expanded more than anticipated in Q4 2013

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the preliminary GDP in the Euro-zone rose 0.3% in Q4 2013, higher than the market estimate of 0.2% rise and compared to a final estimate of growth of 0.1% recorded in the third quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, on a seasonally adjusted annual basis the GDP rose by 0.5% in Q4 2013, compared to a revised decline of 0.3% recorded in the third quarter of 2013.


German economy expanded more than expectations in the fourth quarter of 2013

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, Germany’s GDP rose 0.4% in the Q4 2013, more than market estimates of 0.3% rise and compared to a 0.3% rise reported in the preceding quarter. On a non-seasonally adjusted annual basis, German economy grew 1.3% in the Q4 2013, more than the 1.1% increase recorded in the Q3 2013. On an annual working day adjusted basis, German GDP increased 1.4% in the Q4 2013, compared to a 0.6% rise reported in the previous quarter.


France GDP rises more than expected in Q4 2013

On a quarterly basis, French GDP advanced 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2013, compared to a revised flat growth in the previous quarter. Markets had expected France’s GDP to rise 0.2% in Q4 2013. On an annual basis, the preliminary French GDP rose 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2013, after a revised increase of 0.3% recorded in previous quarter.


Italian economy expanded in line with market forecasts in the Q4 2013

On a seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly basis, GDP in Italy rose 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2013, in line with market estimates and compared to a flat change reported in the previous quarter. On a seasonally and calendar adjusted annual basis, GDP in Italy dropped 0.8% in the Q4 2013, as compared to a revised fall of 1.9% recorded in the Q3 2013.


Spain CPI fell in line with market estimates in January

Spain’s final consumer price index on an annual basis rose 0.2% in January, following a 0.3% rise recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, Spain’s final harmonized consumer prices (HICP) index rose 0.3% in January, compared to similar rise recorded in the previous month.


China consumer price index rose more than market forecasts in January

Consumer price index (CPI) in China rose 2.5% in January on a yearly basis, compared to a similar rise recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the consumer price index to increase 2.4% in January. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index in China increased 1.0% in January, compared to a 0.3% rise reported in the previous month. Additionally, on an annual basis, producer price index in China fell 1.6% in January, compared to a 1.4% decline recorded in the previous month.


Happy pips.

 
Forex Market Update 18Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading mixed against most of the major currencies. Yesterday, the greenback traded mostly lower against the key currencies, as traders refrained from taking major bets in a holiday-thin trading session.
The Euro pared some of its initial gains against the USD after the ZEW reported a surprise fall in its economic sentiment index for the Euro-zone and Germany in February. Yesterday, the ECB Governing Council member, Ewald Nowotny, projected interest rates in the region to remain at current or lower level until inflation does not reach 2% target.
The UK Pound is trading lower against its US counterpart, after UK’s inflation rate fell below the BoE’s 2% target for the first time in more than four years. On Monday, the Bank of England’s (BoE) David Miles opined that the UK economy would expand more than the BoE’s projections and interest rates in the nation could rise above its current low level in future.
Earlier today, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), in its February policy meeting, refrained from altering its monetary stance and reiterated its upbeat growth outlook on the Japanese economy. The central bank also expanded its lending programs in order to support the economy’s recovery.
The minutes from the RBA’s February meeting indicated “a period of stability in interest rate” and highlighted policymakers’ upbeat view on growth-outlook of the Australian economy.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3725 against the USD, 0.13% higher from the New York close. In economic news, the ZEW survey showed that economic sentiment in the Euro-zone and Germany unexpectedly declined in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3728 and a low of 1.3698. Yesterday, the EUR traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3707. ECB’s Ewald Nowotny indicated that the central bank would keep its interest rate at present or lower level “as long as” inflation does not rise above its 2% target. 

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3701 and first resistance at 1.3738.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6695 against the USD, 0.11% lower from the New York close, after UK’s consumer inflation index fell for the first time since November 2009 in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6743 and a low of 1.6668. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.07% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6714. BoE’s David Miles hinted that current low level of interest rate would not persist for a very long time and further indicated that growth in the nation may speed up more than the BoE’s growth-projection.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6651 and first resistance at 1.6744.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.44 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.52% higher from the New York close. The JPY came under pressure after the BoJ policymakers, in its monetary policy meeting, enhanced its lending programs and agreed to keep its accommodative policy measure in place. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.76 and a low of 101.93. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded slightly lower against the JPY, and closed at 101.91.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.88 and first resistance at 102.88.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8902 against the Swiss Franc, 0.15% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8930 and a low of 0.8908. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.06% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8915.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8892 and first resistance at 0.8921.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0957 against the CAD, 0.06% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0978 and a low of 1.0952. Yesterday, the USD traded marginally lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0964.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0943 and first resistance at 1.0975.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9014 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.21% lower from the New York close. On the economic front, the RBA’s latest policy meeting hinted at “a period of stability in interest rates” and also revealed that the central bank had done “as much as” it can to revive the economy with expectations of economic growth to pick-up by mid-2016. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9083 and a low of 0.9007. AUD traded tad lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9033.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8982 and first resistance at 0.9065.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1314.90 per ounce, 1.05% lower from the New York close after huge outflows from physically backed investment funds more than offset record consumer demand and weighed on the global gold demand which fell 15% in 2013. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1332.45 and a low of $1312.76 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.11% higher, and closed at $1328.88, as a weaker US Dollar bolstered the demand-outlook of the commodity.

Gold has its first support at $1307.62 and first resistance at $1327.31.

Silver
Silver is trading at $21.42 per ounce, 1.84% lower from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $21.90 and a low of $21.34. Silver traded 0.42% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $21.82, taking cues from a gain in the prices of precious metals.

Silver has its first support at $21.19 and first resistance at $21.79.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $100.94 per barrel, 0.10% higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $101.02 and a low of $100.57. Yesterday, Oil traded marginally higher in the New York session, and closed at $100.85, amid speculation that an extreme cold weather in the US would spur demand for heating fuels.

It has its first support at $100.67 and first resistance at $101.12.

Economic Snapshot

UK annual inflation rate falls below 2% threshold in January
On an annual basis, consumer price index in the UK rose 1.9% in January, compared to a 2.0% rise recorded in the previous month. On an annual basis, the core consumer price index in the UK advanced 1.6% in January, compared to a 1.7% rise reported in the previous month.

UK retail price index rose more than expected in January
On an annual basis, retail price index in UK rose 2.8% in January, compared to a 2.7% increase recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the retail price index to rise 2.7% in January.

Euro-zone current account surplus widened unexpectedly in December
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, current account surplus of the Euro-zone widened to €33.2 billion in December, following a revised surplus of €27.2 billion recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the Euro-zone’s current account surplus to narrow to €20.0 billion in December.

Euro-zone economic sentiment fell unexpectedly in February, indicates ZEW
The ZEW survey - economic sentiment in the Euro-zone declined to a level of 68.5 in February, against the market expectation of a level of 73.9 and compared to a reading of 73.3 reported in the previous month.

German economic sentiment declined more than expected in January, indicates ZEW
The ZEW survey - economic sentiment index in Germany fell to a level of 55.7 in February, more than market expectation of a level of 61.5 and compared to a reading of 61.7 reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, ZEW survey - current situation index in Germany climbed to a level of 50.0 in February, higher than market expectations of a level of 44.0 and compared to a reading of 41.2 reported in the previous month.

Italian trade surplus narrowed in December
Italy posted a trade surplus of €0.2 billion in December, lower than revised surplus of €0.7 billion recorded in the previous month. The global trade surplus of Italy widened to €3.6 billion in December, from revised surplus of €3.1 billion recorded in the previous month. Market had expected Italy’s global trade surplus to narrow to €2.8 billion in December.

BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.10%, in line with market expectations and maintained its asset purchase program. The central bank also kept its inflation outlook unchanged while reiterating that the nation's economy continued to recover at a moderate pace and “inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole.”

Japan's economy is on track for recovery, indicated BoJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, in a news conference, indicated that Japan's economy was moving in line with the central bank's forecasts, hinting that no imminent expansion of monetary policy was necessary.

RBA minutes hinted at stable interest rate regime
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting held on 4 February revealed that interest rates in the nation are likely to remain stable in the near term if the economy continues to improve. However, the RBA also stated that the economic expansion will be subdued through 2014 and will pick-up pace only by mid-2016.

China’s foreign direct investment rose at a faster pace in January
On a year to date basis, FDI in China rose 16.1% for the first month of 2014, faster compared to a 5.3% rise reported for the January to December 2013 period.

Happy pips.
 
Forex Market Update 20Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading mostly higher against most of the major currencies.
The Euro is trading lower this morning, after indexes measuring the manufacturing activities in Germany, France and the Euro zone missed expectations in February, spurring fresh doubts on the recovery of the Euro-zone economy. Yesterday, the IMF suggested the ECB to consider lowering its key interest rate below 0% to support the fragile and uneven growth in the region’s economy, as it warned the possibility of deflation in the region.
Yesterday, the greenback traded mostly higher against the key currencies, after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest policy meeting, highlighted policymakers’ upbeat view on the recovery of the US economy and hinted no change towards its tapering policy in its QE measure. The USD also drew some support from hawkish comments of three leading Fed officials.
During the New York session yesterday, the Bank of England’s (BoE), Paul Fisher revealed that no policymakers in the BOE MPC “pushed” for a rake hike in the policy meeting. He further opined that a premature hike in the nation’s benchmark interest rate could prove fatal for Britain’s economic recovery.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3692 against the USD, 0.32% lower from the New York close, following the latest batch of lackluster Markit PMI data from the Euro-zone and its key member nations, Germany and France. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3763 and a low of 1.3695. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.06% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3736. The IMF urged the ECB to consider slashing its key interest rate to below 0% with a view to dampen deflation threats and support the fragile economic recovery in the Euro-zone.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3663 and first resistance at 1.3744.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6646 against the USD, 0.22% lower from the New York close, amid concerns that a report tomorrow would reveal a drop in UK retail sales. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6697 and a low of 1.6645. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.17% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6682. BoE’s Paul Fisher opined that an early rise in the interest rate could hamper Britain’s economic recovery.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6612 and first resistance at 1.6704.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.00 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.33% lower from the New York close. The Yen is trading higher against major peers amid risk aversion among traders. In economic news, Japan’s total trade merchandised deficit widened more than market expectations to a record level in January, with a surge in the nation’s imports and a less-than-expected increase in the nation’s exports. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.43 and a low of 101.74. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.40% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.34.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.62 and first resistance at 102.43.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8914 against the Swiss Franc, 0.33% higher from the New York close. In economic news, data showed that a trade surplus in Switzerland widened more than market estimates in January, helped by a surge in the nation’s exports. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8916 and a low of 0.8863. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded tad lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8885.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8874 and first resistance at 0.8935.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1073 against the CAD, 0.05% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1094 and a low of 1.1071. Yesterday, the USD traded 1.22% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1078. The Canadian Dollar slid against its US counterpart after data showed that wholesale sales in the nation dropped around three-times more than analysts’ expectations for December.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0959 and first resistance at 1.1141.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8977 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.27% lower from the New York close, after China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI slowed to a seven-month low in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9014 and a low of 0.8943. AUD traded 0.33% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9001.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8927 and first resistance at 0.9036.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1313.52 per ounce, 0.14% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1315.99 and a low of $1308.77 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.47% lower, and closed at $1311.65, after the release of Fed’s minutes indicated that majority of the policymakers want to end the bond buying program as soon as possible and amid hawkish comments by a key Fed member.

Gold has its first support at $1307.42 and first resistance at $1320.96.

Silver
Silver is trading at $21.62 per ounce, 0.33% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $21.72 and a low of $21.41. Silver traded 1.00% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $21.55. Late Tuesday the Silver Institute reported that the US Mint sold around 42.68 million of American eagle silver bullion coins in 2013, 26% more than what it sold in the preceding year.

Silver has its first support at $21.35 and first resistance at $21.90.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $103.19 per barrel, 0.20% lower from the New York close, after China’s manufacturing activity hit its lowest level in seven months in February. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $103.50 and a low of $102.97. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.34% higher in the New York session, and closed at $103.43. Late Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that weekly US crude supplies dropped unexpectedly by 473,000 barrels for the week ended February 14.

It has its first support at $102.46 and first resistance at $103.86.

Economic Snapshot

CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders rose less than market expectations for February
On a month-on-month basis, the CBI industrial trends survey - orders in the UK rose to a reading of 3.0 in February, less than analysts’ expectations for a rise to a level of 5.0, from previous month’s level of -2.0.

Euro-zone manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly in February
The Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) PMI in the Euro-zone fell to a reading of 53.0 in February, following a reading of 54.0 in the previous month. Markets had expected the index to remain steady at a reading of 54.0.  Meanwhile, preliminary services PMI in Euro-zone rose to a reading of 51.7 in February, compared to a final reading of 51.6 reported in the previous month.  However, preliminary composite PMI fell unexpectedly to a reading of 52.7 in February, from a reading of 52.9 in the previous month.

German services PMI rose more than expected in February
The Markit services PMI in Germany rose to a reading of 55.4 in February, following a reading of 53.1 in the previous month. Markets had expected the index to rise to a reading of 53.4 in February. The preliminary manufacturing PMI in Germany fell to a level of 54.7 in February, from a reading of 56.5 in the previous month.

French EU normalised consumer price index rose less than expected in January
On an annual basis, EU normalised consumer price index in France increased 0.8% in January, compared to a similar rise recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the EU normalised consumer price index to rise 0.9% in January.

France manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly in February
The Markit manufacturing PMI in France dropped unexpectedly to a reading of 48.5 in February, from a reading of 49.3 in the previous month. Market had expected the index to rise to a reading of 49.5. Meanwhile, the services PMI fell unexpectedly to a level of 46.9 in February, compared to a reading of 48.9 in January.

Switzerland’s trade surplus widened in January
Switzerland’s trade surplus widened to CHF 2.59 billion in January, from a revised surplus of CHF 0.52 billion recorded in the previous month. Market had expected Switzerland’s trade surplus to narrow to CHF 0.2 billion in January.

Australia RBA foreign exchange transaction declined in January
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) foreign exchange transaction dropped to A$362.0 million in January, from a level of A$884.0 million in the previous month.

China preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI declined in February
The Markit manufacturing PMI in China fell to a reading of 48.3 in February, compared to a final reading of 49.5 reported in the previous month. Market had expected the index to fall to a reading of 49.4 in February.

Happy pips.
 

Weekly Forex Update


The greenback rose against its key peers last week, after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) January meeting revealed that policy makers discussed the possibility of raising interest rates in the near future. The minutes also indicated that the central bank will continue tapering monthly bond purchases as the year unfolds.

On Friday, the Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher stated that the US central bank has done enough to support the economy and should continue to reduce the size of its bond-buying programme.

However, the greenback’s gains were capped as another set of dismal US economic data prompted traders to ponder whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will slow the pace of reductions of its stimulus program. Manufacturing activity in the New York region fell sharply in February, while the Fed Philadelphia manufacturing index deteriorated in February. The number of building permits issued in January dipped more-than-expected by 5.4% and US housing starts plunged 16%. Another report showed that the number of people filing for initial jobless benefits fell less-than-expected for the week ending February 15, while consumer price inflation in the nation rose in line with market expectations in January. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors indicated that US existing home sales fell 5.1% to 4.62 million units last month.

However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned the US and other advanced economies to avoid speedy exit from monetary stimulus, citing that the recovery is still weak and significant downside risks still remain. The agency also urged the European Central Bank (ECB) to slash its key interest rates below zero as it warned that deflation in the Euro-bloc is a key new risk facing the world economy.

In a key development, the Italian center-left leader, Matteo Renzi was sworn in as nation’s new Prime Minister on Saturday.

Elsewhere, commitment by Japan's central bank to carry on with its stimulus package longer than planned weighed on the Yen. In the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) January policy meeting, policy makers stated that bank’s monetary easing measures are not strictly set to end in two years.

The minutes of Bank of England (BoE) showed that the policymakers unanimously decided to leave the key interest rate at 0.50% and quantitative easing at £375 billion.

For the week ending February 21, the Canadian Dollar declined 1.4% against the greenback. The Australian Dollar also lost ground against the greenback on the back of disappointing manufacturing data from China, sparking fears of a slowdown in Asia's largest economy.


EUR USD

Last week, the EUR traded 0.31% higher against the USD and closed at 1.3740, following the release of a mixed set of economic data from the European region. The preliminary manufacturing PMI in Germany, France and the Euro-zone missed market expectations. Additionally, preliminary services PMI in the Euro-zone and France disappointed markets, while service sector activity in Germany rose in February. Consumer confidence in the Euro-area worsened in February, underlining the uneven and fragile recovery in the bloc. The ZEW sentiment indices in Germany and the Euro-zone revealed that economic sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in February. However, the current situation index in Germany improved more-than-expected. Another set of data revealed that current account surplus in the Euro-zone stood at record €221.3 billion for 2013, while construction output in the bloc recovered in December after declining for three consecutive months. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3774 and a low of 1.3685. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3692, with the next support expected at 1.3644. The first resistance is at 1.3781 and the next at 1.3822.


Investors will keep a tab on the string of European macro reports later this week for further direction.


GBP USD

In the last week, GBP traded 0.59% lower against the USD and closed at 1.6638, following a dismal set of macroeconomic data from the UK, raising concerns over the pace of economic recovery in the nation. The consumer price inflation in the UK fell to 1.9% in January, below the central bank's 2% target. Meanwhile, the ILO unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 7.2% for the three months to December. However, the number of people claiming jobless benefits continued to slide at a stable pace. Also, retail sales declined more than expected in January. The housing data released last week showed an increase in house prices in the UK, raising concerns that a housing bubble could develop in 2014. Meanwhile, the minutes of the BoE’s latest monetary policy meeting offered no significant insights into the near term direction of monetary policy. The pair traded at a high of 1.6824 and a low of 1.6612 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6559, with the next at 1.6479. Resistance exists first at 1.6771, and then at 1.6903.


Sterling is expected to take further cues from the outcome of fourth quarter GDP and January’s mortgage approvals data from the UK.


USD JPY

The USD traded 0.79% higher against the JPY over the past week, closing at 102.64. Disappointing economic data released in Japan last week proved a dampener for the local Yen. Nation posted a record merchandise trade deficit of ¥2.8 trillion in January, as growth in exports was outstripped by a surge in import costs. Another data showed that industrial production increased at a weaker pace than earlier estimated in December, while Japan's all industry activity dropped unexpectedly. Also nation’s leading index rose less than initially estimated in December. The Yen also came under pressure after the BoJ indicated in the minutes of latest policy meeting that its stimulus program could continue for longer than the two years initially stated. The pair traded at a high of 102.84 and a low of 101.38. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.73, with the next support expected at 100.83. The first resistance is at 103.19 and the next at 103.75.


Going forward, investors have their plate full with a raft of economic data including Japan’s inflation, retail trade and industrial production data.


USD CHF

USD traded 0.48% lower against the CHF and closed at 0.8877 in the last week. The Swiss Franc rose following the release of few positive economic data in Switzerland. In economic news, trade surplus surged in January driven by higher exports. Exports grew at a faster than earlier pace of 2.5% (MoM) in January, while imports declined for the first time in three months. A separate report revealed that the ZEW-CS indicator of economic expectations declined to a reading of 28.7 in February from 36.4 in January, while the current conditions index dropped to 47.6 in February. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.8930 and a low of 0.8855. The first support is at 0.8845, and the next at 0.8812. Resistance exists first at 0.8920, and then at 0.8962.


In the week ahead, market participants’ will eye fourth quarter growth data from Switzerland along with the UBS consumption and KOF leading indicator for January.


USD CAD

Last week, the USD traded 1.37% higher against the CAD and closed at 1.1121. The Statistics Canada reported that retail sales in Canada tumbled 1.8% in December, from a 0.5% rise recorded in November. Analysts had expected retail sales to decline 0.4%. The agency also reported that nation’s consumer price index rose 1.5% (YoY) in January, slightly higher than the 1.3% rise expected but below the BoC's target of 2%. The BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz indicated that he remains concerned about the state of the Canadian economy in the wake of the financial crisis. However, he further added that the local currency’s sharp decline in recent time versus the USD is a welcome development, since it signals growing momentum in its biggest trading partner, the US. The pair traded at a high of 1.1197 and a low of 1.0907 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0953, with the next at 1.0785. The first resistance is at 1.1243, while the next is at 1.1365.


Ahead in the week, traders would focus on the Canadian gross domestic product data to be released by the Statistics Canada.


AUD USD

AUD traded 0.72% lower against the USD last week, and closed at 0.8967, following the release of another set of disappointing data from China, Australia’s biggest trading partner. The HSBC flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China fell to a seven-month low of 48.3 in February. Moreover, the MNI business confidence index in China declined to a 5-year low of 50.2 in February. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest policy meeting revealed that interest rates in the nation are likely to remain steady at present levels in the near term. However, the bank indicated that economic growth will remain subdued through 2014 and cautioned that improvements in the labor market will take time. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.9083 and a low of 0.8935. The first support is at 0.8907, and the next at 0.8847. The first resistance is at 0.9055, and the next at 0.9143.


In the absence of major economic data ahead this week from Australia, market participants will keep a tab on global economic news for further direction.


Gold

In the prior week, Gold traded 0.42% higher against the USD and closed at USD1324.28, following another set of mostly weaker-than-expected US economic data. However, gains were capped as the minutes of the Fed’s January policy meeting highlighted the possibility of an increase in interest rates earlier-than-expected. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1332.45 and a low of 1307.41 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1310.31 and the next at 1296.34. The first resistance is at 1335.35, while the next is at 1346.42.


In the week ahead, market participants will continue to pay close attention to US economic data for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.


Oil

Oil prices traded 1.89% higher against the USD in the last week and closed at USD102.20, amid speculation that weather conditions in the US Northeast will boost demand for oil. In a key development, reports indicated that Iran’s top two oil customers, China and India boosted their imports in January. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute reported a decline of 473,000 barrels in the US crude inventories for the week ended February 14. Analysts had forecast a climb of 1.9 million barrels in crude supplies. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration indicated that crude stockpiles rose 1 million barrels for the week ended February 14, against the expectations for a climb of 1.9 million barrels. Oil traded at a high of 103.80 and a low of 100.45 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 100.50, while the next support exists at 98.80. The first resistance is at 103.85 and the next at 105.50.


In the week ahead, traders would pay close attention to the US economic data for further directions to the oil prices.


Happy pips.

 
Forex Market Update 25Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies.
The EUR is trading higher against the USD today, after the final reading of the German GDP for the fourth quarter was in line with the previous estimates. Yesterday, the common currency faced some resistance after the European Central Bank (ECB) opined that it could discuss introducing negative interest rate at its policy meeting in March. Meanwhile, in Italy, Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi won his first confidence vote in the parliament.
The British Pound is trading higher this morning, after BoE policymaker, Ian McCafferty suggested the likeliness of the central bank hiking its interest rate in the second quarter of 2015 were “not unreasonable” and that the timing would solely depend on the inflation data.
Earlier today, the Canadian Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty hinted that his government would emphasize on reducing the taxes for families before lowering debt and boosting spending in the nation. Separately, a New York University economist, Nouriel Roubin, opined that the Bank of Canada (BoC) should implement measures to weaken its currency and promote growth in its economy.
Yesterday, the USD traded lower in the New York session against the key currencies. In a speech, the Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher stated that he would like the central bank to continue tapering the size of its stimulus measure by $10 billion at it upcoming policy meetings.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3747 against the USD, 0.09% higher from the New York close, after final reading of the German GDP data showed that the economy expanded in-line with market expectations in the fourth-quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3764 and a low of 1.3732. Yesterday, the EUR traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3735. However, the gains in the Euro were capped after the ECB’s Ignazio Visco hinted that policymakers could consider negative deposit rate at its upcoming policy meeting in March.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3714 and first resistance at 1.3773.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6693 against the USD, 0.23% higher from the New York close, after BoE’s Ian McCafferty stated that the central bank would opt for an earlier rate hike if inflation pressure picks up pace again and after upbeat mortgage approvals data. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6707 and a low of 1.6654. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.08% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6654, buoyed by the BoE Governor, Mark Carney’s comments.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6615 and first resistance at 1.6739.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.39 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.12% lower from the New York close. On the economic front, Japan’s corporate service price index rose 0.8% (YoY) in January, less than market expectations and compared to a 1.1% increase witnessed in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.64 and a low of 102.30. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.06% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.51.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.19 and first resistance at 102.61.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8872 against the Swiss Franc, 0.19% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8893 and a low of 0.8868. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded tad lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8889.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8849 and first resistance at 0.8903.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1077 against the CAD, 0.15% higher from the New York close. Earlier today, an economist from the New York University, Nouriel Roubini suggested the BoC to undertake aggressive monetary policies to weaken its currency and support growth in the Canadian economy. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1082 and a low of 1.1059. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.32% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1060.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1045 and first resistance at 1.1117.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9024 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.12% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9046 and a low of 0.9011. AUD traded 0.50% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9035.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8984 and first resistance at 0.9058.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1332.95 per ounce, 0.30% lower from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1340.04 and a low of $1331.44 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.31% higher, and closed at $1336.98, as the latest batch of soft economic data from the US and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, Venezuela and Egypt bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the metal.

Gold has its first support at $1327.77 and first resistance at $1339.08.

Silver
Silver is trading at $21.75 per ounce, 1.04% lower from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.03 and a low of $21.71. Silver traded 0.34% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $21.98, mirroring losses in the prices of industrial metals.

Silver has its first support at $21.58 and first resistance at $22.05.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $102.18 per barrel, 0.50% lower from the New York close, ahead of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly report on the US crude supplies. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $102.86 and a low of $102.02. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.63% higher in the New York session and closed at $102.74, as news of bombing and shooting in Iraq sparked fresh concerns on the supply-outlook of the commodity from the Middle East region.

It has its first support at $101.62 and first resistance at $103.10.

Economic Snapshot

BBA mortgage approvals in UK rose more than market estimate in January
BBA mortgage approvals in the UK climbed to a level of 49.97K in January, higher than market expectation of a level of 47.15K and compared to a revised reading of 47.08K reported in the previous month.

CBI distributive trades survey - realized in the UK surpassed expectations in February
The Confederation of British Industry reported that CBI distributive trades survey - realized in the UK has risen to a level of 37.0% in February, higher than market expectations of a level of 15.0% and compared to a reading of 14.0% reported in the previous month.

German economy expanded in line with the preliminary estimate in the fourth quarter of 2013
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, Germany’s final GDP advanced 0.4% in the Q4 2013, in line with the preliminary estimate and compared to a 0.3% rise reported in the preceding quarter. On a non-seasonally adjusted annual basis, German economy grew 1.3% in the Q4 2013, after recording a rise of 1.1% in the Q3 2013. On an annual working day adjusted basis, German GDP climbed 1.4% in the Q4 2013, compared to a 0.6% rise reported in the previous quarter.

German exports rose more than market forecast in Q4 2013
On a quarterly basis, Germany’s exports climbed 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2013, higher than market forecast of a rise of 1.7% and compared to an upwardly revised increase of 0.2% recorded in the previous quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, imports in Germany rose 0.6% in the Q4 2013, following a 0.8% rise recorded in the previous quarter.

France business climate indicator stood pat in February
Industrial business climate indicator in France remained steady at a level of 94.0 in February, compared to the previous month.

Retail sales in Italy fell unexpectedly in December
On a non-seasonally adjusted annual basis, retail sales in Italy declined 2.6% in December, compared to a revised rise of 0.2% recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting retail sales to rise 0.2% in December.

Italy’s consumer confidence fell unexpectedly
Consumer confidence in Italy dropped to a level of 97.5 in February, against market expectations of a level of 98.5 and compared to a reading of 98.0 reported in the previous month.

Italian trade balance swings to a deficit in January
The National Institute of Statistics of Italy has reported that Italian trade with non-EU countries swung to a deficit of €0.89 billion in January from a revised surplus of €3.41 billion reported last month.

Spain’s producer price index declined in January
On an annual basis, Spain’s producer price index fell 1.8% in January, compared to a 0.6% rise recorded in the previous month.

China CB leading economic index rose in January
The Conference Board (CB) leading economic index for China rose 1.2% in January, following a revised increase of 0.8% in the preceding month.

Happy pips.
 
Forex Market Update 27Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading mostly higher against most of the major currencies, ahead of the Fed Chief, Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Senate.
This morning, the EUR is trading on a lower footing following mixed economic data out of the Euro region and after risk appetite decreased among investors following mounting tensions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, in a noteworthy development, yield of Italy’s 5-year and 10-year bond auction declined to 2.14% and 3.42% respectively.
The JPY is trading higher against the USD as ongoing social unrest in Ukraine and Thailand spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Earlier today, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board member, Takehiro Sato expressed confidence in Japan achieving its 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner and hinted the possibility for the central bank opting for a flexible approach in deciding the time for exiting its stimulus.
Yesterday, the greenback traded higher in the New York session against the key currencies, after new home sales in the US rose to five and a half year high in January. Positive sentiment was also fuelled after two eminent Fed policymakers, Richard Fisher and Sandra Pianalto hinted a continuation in the tapering of stimulus measure at a steady pace. However, another policymaker, Eric Rosengren, dissented and suggested the Fed to be “very patient” in withdrawing its stimulus package.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3651 against the USD, 0.26% lower from the New York close amid mounting risk aversion among traders following news that Russia put fighter jets on combat alert due to escalating tensions in Ukraine. The currency also came under pressure amid concerns that German annual inflation rate would fall in February from January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3697 and a low of 1.3651. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.31% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3686.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3613 and first resistance at 1.3717.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6633 against the USD, 0.23% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6685 and a low of 1.6638. Yesterday, the British Pound traded marginally lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6671. The US Dollar advanced against the UK Pound after data showed that new home sales in the US rose at the fastest pace in five years in January.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6604 and first resistance at 1.6680.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.84 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.55% lower from the New York close. The Yen is trading higher against the US Dollar as social unrest in Ukraine boosted the demand for safe-haven assets.  Meanwhile, in Japan, BoJ’s Takehiro Sato opined that the nation could achieve its 2% inflation target sustainably and hinted flexibility in the BoJ’s timing to exit its stimulus measure. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.46 and a low of 101.85. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded slightly higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.40.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.55 and first resistance at 102.38.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8908 against the Swiss Franc, tad higher from the New York close. The Swiss Franc lost ground after the Swiss GDP slowed more-than-expected in the fourth quarter while the employment level in Switzerland also deteriorated in the fourth quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8920 and a low of 0.8901. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.25% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8907.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8878 and first resistance at 0.8935.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1132 against the CAD, marginally lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1143 and a low of 1.1124. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.38% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1133, following a surge in the US new home sales data for January.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1085 and first resistance at 1.1162.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8916 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.59% lower from the New York close, after a report showed that private capital expenditure in Australia fell to the lowest level in the past four years. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8971 and a low of 0.8913. AUD traded 0.14% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8969.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8877 and first resistance at 0.8981.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1333.05 per ounce, 0.25% higher from the New York close, as geo-political tension in Ukraine and Thailand spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile speculation for a rise in Chinese gold demand also supported the price of gold. Traders await the Fed Chief, Janet Yellen’s speech for further cues in the gold price movement. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1333.45 and a low of $1323.96 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.15% lower, and closed at $1329.77, pressurized by a stronger US Dollar.

Gold has its first support at $1323.22 and first resistance at $1342.04.

Silver
Silver is trading at $21.41 per ounce, 0.85% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $21.42 and a low of $21.00. Silver traded 2.00% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $21.23, amid broad gains in the US Dollar.

Silver has its first support at $20.96 and first resistance at $21.90.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $102.54 per barrel, tad lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $102.64 and a low of $102.19. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.07% higher in the New York session, and closed at $102.56 after a US government report revealed a less-than-expected rise in the weekly crude supplies last week.

It has its first support at $102.11 and first resistance at $102.94.

Economic Snapshot

Industrial confidence in the Euro-zone rose unexpectedly in February
Industrial confidence in the Euro-zone rose to a level of -3.4 in February, compared to a revised reading of -3.8 reported in the previous month, against the market estimate of a fall to a level of -4.0. Meanwhile, economic sentiment indicator in the Euro-zone rose to a level of 101.2 in February, compared to a revised reading of 101.0 reported in the previous month. The final consumer confidence in the Euro-zone declined to a level of -12.7 in February, in line with preliminary estimate and compared to a level of -11.7 reported in the previous month. Services sentiment indicator in the Euro-zone advanced to a level of 3.2 in February, compared to a reading of 2.4 reported in the previous month.

Germany’s unemployment level dropped more than market estimate in February
The number of people unemployed in Germany declined by 14.0K in February, higher than market expectation of a decline of 10.0K and compared declines of 28.0K reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate in Germany remained unchanged at 6.8% in February, compared to the previous month.

France consumer confidence index fell unexpectedly in February
Consumer confidence index in France dropped to a level of 85.0 in February, compared to a reading of 86.0 reported in the previous month. Market had anticipated the index to remain steady in February.

Spain’s GDP rose less than the preliminary estimate in the Q4 2013
On a quarterly basis the final gross domestic product (GDP) in Spain rose 0.2% in the Q4 2013, less than the preliminary estimate of 0.3% rise and compared to an increase of 0.1% recorded in the Q3 2013.

Swiss economy expanded at a slower than anticipated pace in the Q4 2013
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.2% in the Q4 2013, less than market expectation of a 0.4% rise and compared to a 0.5% rise posted in the Q3 2013.

Swiss employment declined marginally in the Q4 2013
The number of people employed in Switzerland fell marginally to 4.19 million in Q4 2013, compared to a level of 4.20 million recorded in the previous quarter.

Fed to persist with QE3 tapering if economy continues to improve, indicated Fed’s Pianalto
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President, Sandra Pianalto, opined that the central bank would continue scaling back its monthly asset purchases program as long as the economy performs as expected.

Australia’s private capital expenditure declined more than expected in the Q4 2013
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, private capital expenditure in Australia fell 5.2% in Q4 2013, compared to a 2.6% increase recorded in the previous quarter.

Happy pips.