Forex Market Update - page 2

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Weekly Forex Update

The greenback finished the previous week in the red against its key peers, as uncertainties of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) much awaited first policy meeting for the year kept investors on sidelines. In the recent past, market participants have witnessed many of the FOMC members wanting the central bank to seek exit from its ultra loose monetary stance.
During the past week, the economic news from the US disappointed investors. The initial jobless claims rose in the week ended January 24, and manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped from its previous levels in January. Also, existing home sales and economic activity index in Chicago fell in December.
Markets elsewhere in the past week were driven by the outcome of the central bank’s meetings from Asia, Europe and Canada and remarks from key policy makers wherein they reiterated their dovish stances.
The Euro traded higher against the USD, after better than expected macroeconomic data. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, at the World Economic Forum, stated that the recovery in the Euro-zone is still “fragile” and that the region cannot afford to let go its structural reforms, as it still continues to witness uneven growth. He further reiterated his earlier stance that inflation is likely to stay at current level for the next two years and would gradually move to the ECB’s 2% target.
The Bank of England (BoE) in the minutes of its latest policy meeting revealed that the central bank is no mood to lift the interest rate even though the nation’s labor market continues to show signs of improvement. Meanwhile, yet another impressive domestic jobs report showed that unemployment rate stood just an inch away from its threshold rate.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting, citing that bold easing measures undertaken under the guidance of the nation’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is helping to push the inflation towards the 2% target. It also reaffirmed that the nation’s economy continues to recover at a moderate pace.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) also followed suit to leave its interest rates unchanged at 1% level. It further forecasted that inflation would gradually pick up in the nation over a two year period.
The Aussie moved southwards, after one of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) top official voiced that an exchange rate of around 80 US cents would be helpful in fostering economic activities in the island nation.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 1.13% higher against the USD and closed at 1.3678, amid increased risk appetite among investors, on the back of an upbeat assessment for the global economy from the world’s leading economic agencies. Moreover, domestic macroeconomic data from the Euro-zone and its member nations also came as a blessing for the common currency. The ZEW economic sentiment in the Euro-zone rose in January, while the consumer confidence in the bloc showed further signs of improvements in the similar period. Moreover, a pick up in the manufacturing and services activities across the Euro-region, signaled that the recovery in the bloc is slowly gaining the pace. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s Chief’s, Mario Draghi, dismissed the concerns of deflations in the common currency bloc and opined that it would recover gradually. In a key development, Moody’s rating agency maintained its “Negative” outlook for the French economy. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3740 and a low of 1.3507. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3543, with the next support expected at 1.3409. The first resistance is at 1.3776, and the next at 1.3875.

The German and the Euro-zone’s employment and inflation data are set to drive market action during this week, along with the German IFO indices and a slew of Euro-zone’s economical gauges, which would provide deep insights about the bloc’s economy.         

GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.54% higher against the USD and closed at 1.6499, as another buoyant jobs report for the UK supplemented the recent robust recovery of the nation’s economy. It revealed that the jobless claims in the nation continued to drop for fifteen consecutive months and the nation’s unemployment rate stood just a notch away from the 7% threshold rate set by the central bank. Meanwhile, the minutes of the BoE’s latest policy meeting revealed that the policy makers unanimously saw no urgency to hike the interest rates, despite an incredible slump in the nation’s jobless rate. Separately, the BoE’s Governor, Mark Carney, echoed similar views that the rise in the interest rates is still not there on the cards. The pair traded at a high of 1.6670 and a low of 1.6395 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6373, with the next at 1.6246. Resistance exists first at 1.6648, and then at 1.6796.

The UK gross domestic product data scheduled this week would be catalyst for the Pound’s movements. In addition, UK would also release consumer confidence and house prices data.    

USD JPY
The USD traded 1.81% lower against the JPY over the past week, closing at 102.43. During the week, the BoJ kept monetary tools unaltered, citing that the bold easing measures undertaken under the guidance of the nation’s Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, are proving favorable for the nation, as the nation is inching closer to its inflation target at a steady pace. Also, the central bank in its monthly economic bulletin reaffirmed that that the nation’s economy continues to recover at a moderate pace, helped by rise in exports and business fixed investments. In economic news, the leading and the coincident index in Japan improved in November. However, industrial production in the nation dropped in November. The pair traded at a high of 104.86 and a low of 102.00. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.33, with the next support expected at 100.24. The first resistance is at 104.19, and the next at 105.96.

Japan is expected to release its highly tracked inflation figures during the week. Investors would also keep a close tab on the nation’s unemployment, industrial production, housing and trade balance data.

USD CHF
USD traded 1.86% lower against the CHF and closed at 0.8949 in the last week. The Swiss Franc gained ground after the Swiss government agreed to the SNB’s appeal to raise the reserve ratio for the capital banks in the nation, to curb the rising prices in the nation’s housing market. On the data front, ZEW expectation statistic in Switzerland dropped unexpectedly in January. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.9158 and a low of 0.8968. The first support is at 0.8905, and the next at 0.8841. Resistance exists first at 0.9095, and then at 0.9221.

The Swiss UBS consumption indicator for December and KOF leading indicator for January are the couple of major macroeconomic updates from the nation during the week.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded 0.89% higher against the CAD and closed at 1.1070. The Loonie came under pressure, after the BoC left its interest rates unchanged, stating that the low inflationary pressure is expected to persist in the nation. Furthermore, it stated that the strength of the Loonie still endangers the competitive edge of the Canadian exports. However, the losses were capped after the nation’s retail sales rebounded at a quicker pace in Canada in November. Meanwhile, the consumer price inflation inched higher in December. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.1175 and a low of 1.0929 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.0941, with the next at 1.0812. The first resistance is at 1.1187, while the next is at 1.1304.

The Loonie investors would track the nation’s GDP data for November, set to release during the week. They would also track economic data and the outcome of the monetary policy decision of the US Federal Reserve during the week.

AUD USD
AUD traded 0.75% lower against the USD last week, and closed at 0.8708, after one of the RBA’s key policymaker opined that an exchange rate of around 80 US cents might be desirable for the economical activities in Australia. Also, a series of disappointing domestic data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner, weighed on the Australian Dollar. However, the losses were limited as a larger than expected reading in the Australian inflation figures stoked expectations that the nation’s central bank might need to delay its decision to further trim its interest rates. Also, consumer confidence in Australia improved in January.  During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.8890 and a low of 0.8660. The first support is at 0.8615, and the next at 0.8523. The first resistance is at 0.8845, and the next at 0.8983.

Australia is slated to release its business conditions and leading index data during the week.

Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 1.11% higher against the USD and closed at USD1267.42, as the greenback weakened following the release of a slew of discouraging economic data from the US. The weekly initial jobless benefits increased for the week ended January 18, while Markit manufacturing PMI declined in January. Also CB leading indicator fell in December. Separately media reports emerged that the Indian government may relax the import duties on the yellow metal. However, concerns that the US Fed might introduce yet another policy taper exerted some downward pressure on the prices of the yellow metal. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1272.73 and a low of 1231.85 in the previous week. Gold is expected to find support at 1241.94 and the next at 1216.45. The first resistance is at 1282.82, while the next is at 1298.21.

The yellow metal might find some support during the festive buying spree in the China economy in this week. However, markets would also cautiously eye the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting as it could single handedly fluctuate the gold prices.

Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 3.04% higher against the USD in the last week and closed at USD96.93, as optimism in the global growth prospects supported the demand prospects of the energy prices. Last week, the International Monetary Fund raised its global growth outlook for the 2014. However, reports that the manufacturing activity in the China returned to the contraction territory and the better than expected compliance of Iran to cease its nuclear activity kept the prices under check. Separately, the American Petroleum Institute reported that the US crude oil stockpiles rose 4.86 million barrels in the week ended January 17. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reported a rise of 1 million barrels in the US crude oil inventories in the similar period. Oil traded at a high of 97.84 and a low of 93.43 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 94.29, while the next support exists at 91.66. The first resistance is at 98.70, and the next at 100.48.

Moving forward, Wednesday’s outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting will be in focus amid expectations for a reduction to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion in the bank’s stimulus program. In addition, the initial estimate of US fourth quarter gross domestic product will also remain in focus on Thursday.

Happy pips.
 

Forex Market Update 27Jan14


The US Dollar started the week on a mixed note, as investors eye the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy meeting’s outcome during the week, amid increased expectations pointing towards yet another policy taper by the FOMC members.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde at the World Economic Forum, cautioned markets about the downside risks to the global economy due to the reduction in the pace of the monthly bond purchases by the US Fed and falling prices in the Euro-zone.

The Euro is trading tad lower against the USD, amid rising concerns over the impact of the Federal Reserve scaling back its stimulus program. In a noteworthy development, Moody’s rating agency, over the weekend, reaffirmed its “Negative” outlook for France.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, stated that the economic recovery in the bloc is still weak and that the inflation would continue to remain at current levels over the period of two years.

In economic news, the German IFO indicated that its business climate index advanced to 110.6 in January, surpassing market forecasts for a reading of 110.0 and up from 109.5 in December, indicating that businesses in the Euro zone’s largest economy had a strong start to the year.

Over to the Asia Pacific, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) released the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which revealed that the policymakers see no urgent requirement to increase the stimulus in the nation.


EUR USD

This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3677 against the USD, tad lower from the New York close. Earlier, the Euro rose after data released this morning indicated that German business confidence advanced to the highest level in two-and-a-half years in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3717 and a low of 1.3671. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.12% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3678, after the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, at the World Economic Forum annual meet in Davos, stated that the recovery of the Euro-zone is still “fragile” as the region still continues to witness uneven growth.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3650 and first resistance at 1.3722.


GBP USD

At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6561 against the USD, 0.38% higher from the New York close. With no economic releases on the deck today, all eyes are now set on the UK’s fourth quarter GDP data to be released later tomorrow. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6573 and a low of 1.6474. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.10% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6499.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6482 and first resistance at 1.6633.


USD JPY

The USD is trading at 102.59 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.16% higher from the New York close. The BoJ’s last policy meeting’s minutes revealed that the policymakers believe that there no immediate requirement to increase the size of the monetary stimulus and that the inflation would continue to rise in the future. In economic news, Japanese trade deficit unexpectedly widened in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.78 and a low of 101.73. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded tad higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.43.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.96 and first resistance at 103.01.


USD CHF

This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8960 against the Swiss Franc, 0.12% higher from the New York close. In the absence of any major macroeconomic data from Switzerland, traders would look into global macroeconomic data for further guidance. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8964 and a low of 0.8931. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded marginally higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8949.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8919 and first resistance at 0.8984.


USD CAD

At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1062 against the CAD, 0.07% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1074 and a low of 1.1050. Yesterday, the USD traded slightly lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1070. In economic news, the Canadian consumer prices rose in December. The Statistics Canada indicated that the consumer price index (CPI) in Canada rose 1.2% (YoY) in December, below market expectation for a 1.4% rise and compared to a gain of 0.9% reported in the preceding month.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1038 and first resistance at 1.1099.


AUD USD

The AUD is trading at 0.8731 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.26% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8739 and a low of 0.8676. AUD traded modestly lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8708.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8681 and first resistance at 0.8760.


Gold

At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1268.59 per ounce, 0.08% lower from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1279.60 and a low of $1266.32 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded tad lower, and closed at $1269.56.


Gold has its first support at $1258.89 and first resistance at $1278.94.


Silver

Silver is trading at $19.92 per ounce, slightly higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.09 and a low of $19.83. Silver traded 1.55% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.92.


Silver has its first support at $19.67 and first resistance at $20.23.


Crude Oil

At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $96.97 per barrel, 0.10% higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $97.18 and a low of $96.60. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.24% lower in the New York session, and closed at $96.90.


It has its first support at $96.32 and first resistance at $97.56.


Economic Snapshot


Ifo business climate index in Germany increased more than expectations in January

The Ifo business climate index in Germany rose to a level of 110.6 in January, higher than market expectation of a level of 110.0 and following a reading of 109.5 reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Ifo current assessment index in Germany rose to a level of 112.4 in January, in line with market expectations and compared to a reading of 111.6 reported in the preceding month. The Ifo business expectations index in Germany rose to a reading of 108.9 in January, against a reading of 107.4 reported in the December.


Happy pips.

 

Forex Market Update 28Jan14


This morning, the US dollar is trading higher against its key peers, as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) begin its two-day policy meeting, with speculation rising that the Fed may add cuts to its monthly $75 billion bond-buying program.

Data released yesterday indicated that, new home sales in the US dropped unexpectedly in December. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity in Dallas inched marginally higher in January. Ahead today, the nation’s durable goods orders, consumer confidence and another housing market gauge would remain on trader’s radar, as they would provide further insights for the US economy.

The Euro is trading in the red against the greenback. On the data front, the French and Italian consumer confidence improved in January. Yesterday, the European Central bank’s (ECB) Member, Jens Weidmann, supported the ECB President, Mario Draghi’s view that although the bloc has witnessed a gradual recovery over the past few quarters, the economic recovery continues to remain fragile and uneven. Further, he reiterated that interest rates will remain at lower levels for an extended period of time.

The Sterling fell against the USD, after reports revealed that the UK’s economic growth slowed slightly to 0.7% in the final quarter of 2013.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Aussie found support as the nation’s business conditions continued to improve in December. Separately, the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbot, stated that the nation’s government would stick to its tax reforms agenda, which would bring in reduction in the company tax rate to 28.5% from the current 30% mark.


EUR USD

This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3636 against the USD, 0.29% lower from the New York close, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision tomorrow. In economic news, consumer confidence advanced in Italy and France for January. Elsewhere, Deutsche Bundesbank reported that the German import price remained unchanged in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3689 and a low of 1.3628. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.11% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3675.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3613 and first resistance at 1.3674.


GBP USD

At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6554 against the USD, 0.19% lower from the New York close, after a report revealed that the UK’s economy grew at slower pace in the fourth quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6627 and a low of 1.6536. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.22% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6585.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6518 and first resistance at 1.6609.


USD JPY

The USD is trading at 103.11 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.53% higher from the New York close. Data released overnight noted that the Japanese corporate service price advanced in December. Traders would now await for all important inflation data for December set to release on Thursday, to get further guidance in the Yen. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 103.27 and a low of 102.48. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.18% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.57, on the back of lackluster US economic data.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.45 and first resistance at 103.52.


USD CHF

This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9002 against the Swiss Franc, 0.42% higher from the New York close. With no economic releases from Switzerland today, traders would closely watch the release of the UBS consumption indicator tomorrow, to get an idea on the private consumption trends in the country. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9011 and a low of 0.8953. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.16% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8964.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8964 and first resistance at 0.9025.


USD CAD

At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1123 against the CAD, 0.06% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1128 and a low of 1.1075. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.66% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1116. In a key development, the Canadian Finance Minister stated that the nation’s upcoming budget in the next month would show a surplus of around C$4 billion and that the policymakers are not attempting to fasten the drop in the nation’s currency.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1059 and first resistance at 1.1158.


AUD USD

The AUD is trading at 0.8796 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.64% higher from the New York close, as the Australian business conditions improved in December, highlighting progress in hiring, trading conditions and profitability. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8823 and a low of 0.8725. AUD traded 0.08% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8740.


The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8736 and first resistance at 0.8840.


Gold

At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1254.09 per ounce, 0.20% lower from the New York close, amid fears that the US policymakers may start to withdraw monetary support, as the Fed commences its two-day policy meeting from today. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1261.35 and a low of $1252.67 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.63% lower, and closed at $1256.65.


Gold has its first support at $1247.22 and first resistance at $1265.89.


Silver

Silver is trading at $19.74 per ounce, 0.20% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.85 and a low of $19.66. Silver traded 0.83% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.70.


Silver has its first support at $19.54 and first resistance at $19.96.


Crude Oil

At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $96.16 per barrel, 0.50% higher from the New York close, ahead of the weekly inventory update from the American Petroleum Institute. Market participants would keep a tab on the outcome of Federal Reserve policy meeting. A rollback would support the greenback and weigh on oil prices. Traders would also turn their attention to US durable goods data slated to release later in the day, to gauge the strength of the economy. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $96.28 and a low of $95.61. Yesterday, Oil traded 1.42% lower in the New York session, and closed at $95.65.


It has its first support at $95.19 and first resistance at $97.16.


Economic Snapshot


UK economy grew in line with expectations in Q4 2013

On a quarterly basis, the preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK rose 0.7% in the Q4 2013, in line with the market estimates and following a 0.8% rise in the Q3 2013. On an annual basis, GDP climbed 2.8% in Q4 2013, compared to a rise of 1.9% recorded in the Q3 2013.


German import price index unexpectedly remained flat in December

On a monthly basis, the import price index in Germany remained flat in December, against a 0.1% increase in the previous month and against an expected rise of 0.2%.


Consumer confidence in France climbed unexpectedly in January

The consumer confidence in France rose to a level of 86.0 in January, higher than market expectations of previous month’s level of 85.0.


Consumer confidence in Italy increased more than expectations in January

The consumer confidence in Italy rose to a level of 98.0 in January, higher than market expectation of a level of 96.7 and following an upwardly revised reading of 96.4 reported in the previous month.


Japan’s small business confidence index increased in January

Small business confidence in Japan rose to a level of 51.3 in January, against a level of 51.1 reported in the previous month.


Australia NAB business confidence remained steady in December

The National Bank of Australia’s business confidence remained steady at a level of 6.0 in December, following an upwardly revised similar reading recorded in the preceding month. Meanwhile, business conditions in Australia rose to 4.0 in December, against a -3.0 in the preceding month.


China industrial profits advanced at a slower pace in December

On a year to date basis, industrial profits in China rose 12.2% for the January to December period of 2013, following a 13.2% increase reported for the first eleven months of 2013.

Happy pips.
 
Forex Market Update 30Jan14

Safe haven buying has been the theme of today’s morning session, as jitters of economical woes in the emerging markets weighed on risk appetite of the investors. Moreover, demand for the USD also found support after the policy makers of US central bank unanimously voted to further decelerate the pace of its bond purchases to $ 65 billion.
The central bank also cautioned about the persistently low levels of inflation which might endanger the economic performance in the nation. However, it further stated that economic growth in the country has improved in the recent quarter and labor market also showed signs of improvements. Against this backdrop, market participants would keep a close eye on the release of US gross domestic product and the initial jobless claims data, to confirm the views of the central bank.
The Euro is trading in red against the USD, following the release of an uninspiring domestic macroeconomic data from the Euro-zone. However, the German unemployment declined more than expected in January, highlighting strength in the nation’s economy. 
The Sterling is trading in the red against the USD. The Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, yesterday opined that there still remains a significant time frame before which the central bank can raise the interest rates.
Meanwhile, a contraction in manufacturing activity in China, the first in six months, added to signs of economic slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3594 against the USD, 0.51% lower from the New York close, as risk aversion increased among investors after data showed the Chinese manufacturing sector contracted more than expected in January and the US Federal Reserve further tapered its asset purchases. Disappointing economic sentiment data from the Euro-zone also weighed on the shared currency. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3666 and a low of 1.3585. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.18% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3663.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3558 and first resistance at 1.3656.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6449 against the USD, 0.69% lower from the New York close. In economic news, December mortgage approvals in the UK increased the highest in almost 6 years. Meanwhile, consumer credit reduced in the similar period. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6568 and a low of 1.6445. Yesterday, the British Pound traded marginally higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6564. The BoE Governor, Mark Carney, stated that the central bank still has substantial time before it would consider hiking the interest rates.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6399 and first resistance at 1.6546.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.35 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.06% higher from the New York close. Data released overnight revealed that the Japanese retail trade rose at a slower pace in December. Traders would now await for consumer prices, industrial production and employment data from Japan set to release early tomorrow. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.55 and a low of 102.08. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.35% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.30.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.84 and first resistance at 102.86.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8997 against the Swiss Franc, 0.57% higher from the New York close. On the data front, the Swiss KOF leading indicator rose at a slower-than-expected pace in January.  During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8999 and a low of 0.8941. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.49% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.8946.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8951 and first resistance at 0.9027.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1177 against the CAD, slightly higher from the New York close. Amid lack of economic data from Canada, the pair would take cues from fourth quarter GDP data from the US. Furthermore, initial jobless claims report will be keenly eyed ahead of next week’s non-farm payrolls data. Tomorrow’s Canadian GDP figures would also likely grab attention by traders. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1200 and a low of 1.1164. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.14% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1172.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1119 and first resistance at 1.1218.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8739 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, tad lower from the New York close, after Australian new home sales dropped in December. Disappointing January manufacturing data in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, also weighed on the Aussie. The Aussie also came under pressure after the Fed decided to taper its monthly asset purchases by further $10 billion to $65 billion yesterday. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8758 and a low of 0.8709. AUD traded 0.15% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8742.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8706 and first resistance at 0.8776.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1255.05 per ounce, 1.00% lower from the New York close, as Federal Reserve’s move to further reduce the size of its bullion friendly asset purchase policy weighed on the yellow metal, offsetting safe-haven bids led by jitters in the emerging markets. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1272.92 and a low of $1253.04 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.41% higher, and closed at $1267.72

Gold has its first support at $1247.75 and first resistance at $1267.63.

Silver
Silver is trading at $19.44 per ounce, 1.51% lower from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning, as the greenback was supported following the US Fed’s decision to further revise the pace of its bond purchases. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.81 and a low of $19.3. Silver traded 0.07% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.74.

Silver has its first support at $19.17 and first resistance at $19.85.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $97.92 per barrel, 0.50% higher from the New York close, as severe climatic conditions in the US improved the demand prospects for the crude oil. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $97.97 and a low of $97.33. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.24% higher in the New York session, and closed at $97.46. The Energy Information Administration has reported that the US crude oil inventories rose 6.4 million barrels for the week ended January 24. 

It has its first support at $96.84 and first resistance at $98.49.

Economic Snapshot

Mortgage approvals in the UK rise less than forecast in December
The number of mortgage approvals in UK increased to a level of 71.6K in December, lower than market expectations of a level of 72.9K and following a 70.8K mortgage approvals reported in the previous month.

UK net consumer credit advanced less than expectations in December
The UK’s net consumer credit increased by £0.6 billion in December, following a revised rise of £0.7 billion recorded in the preceding month. Markets were expecting net consumer credit to rise by £0.7 billion in December. Meanwhile, net lending to individuals in the UK climbed by £2.3 billion in December, following an increase of £1.5 billion recorded in the preceding month.

Euro-zone’s industrial confidence dropped unexpectedly in January
The industrial confidence in the Euro-zone dropped to a level of -3.9 in January, against a reading of -3.4 reported in the preceding month, compared to a market estimate of a rise to a level of -2.9. Meanwhile, economic sentiment indicator in the Euro-zone rose to a level of 100.9 in January, following an upwardly revised reading of 100.4 reported in the preceding month. The final consumer confidence in the Euro-zone rose to a level of -11.7 in January, compared to a level of -13.5 reported in the previous month. Services sentiment indicator in the Euro-zone climbed to a level of 2.3 in January, compared to an upwardly revised reading of 0.4 reported in the previous month.

German unemployment rate remained steady in January
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate in Germany remained unchanged at 6.8% in January, compared to the previous month. Markets were expecting the unemployment rate to rise to 6.9% in January. Meanwhile, the number of people unemployed in Germany fell by 28.0K in January, more than market expectations and compared to a revised drop of 19.0K reported in the previous month.

Spain GDP climbed in line with market consensus in Q4 2013
On a quarterly basis, the preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) in Spain rose 0.3% in Q4 2013, in line with market estimates and compared to a rise of 0.1% recorded in the previous quarter.

KOF Leading Indicator in Switzerland advanced less than forecasts in January
The KOF leading indicator in Switzerland rose to a level of 1.98 in January, lower than market expectations of a level of 2.00 and compared to a reading of 1.95 reported in the preceding month.

Australia HIA new home sales dropped in December
On a monthly basis, new home sales in Australia dropped 0.4% in December, compared to a 7.5% rise in the previous month.

China Markit manufacturing PMI fell more than the preliminary estimate in January
The final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in China dropped to a reading of 49.5 in January, more than the flash estimate of 49.6 and compared to a level of 50.5 in December.

Happy pips.
 
Forex Market Update 31Jan14

This morning, the US Dollar is trading higher against its key peers, after yesterday’s data showed that the US economy grew strongly in the last quarter of 2013, confirming the views of its central bank that the economic growth in the nation has improved in the recent past. Meanwhile, a separate report released yesterday, revealed that the initial jobless claims in the US rose more than market expectations in previous week. Meanwhile, pending home sales dropped further, whereas, core personal consumption rose in line with market expectations.
It remains to be seen whether investors get some more reason to cheer when Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment and Chicago PMI data for January is released later during the day in the US.
The Euro is trading in red against the USD, following the release of subdued inflation figures from the Euro-zone for January. Moreover, disappointing German retail sales data weighed on common currency. Additionally, unemployment rate in the Euro-zone remained near a record high of 12% for a third month running in January. Investors would now focus on the ECB policy meeting next week.
The GBP continue to trade lower versus the dollar, following the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to trim stimulus measures. Also, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney pledged to keep UK interest rates low. Against this back drop, traders would now turn their attention to next week’s BoE monetary policy meeting.
The Yen inched higher, after the inflation figures in the nation continued to move higher in December. Traders also cheered the improvement in the nation’s manufacturing, industrial production and unemployment data.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3545 against the USD, 0.07% lower from the New York close, as greenback continued to remain supported on the back of a robust US gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter. A larger than expected drop in the German retail sales data and the muted inflation figures from the Euro-zone also weighed on the common currency. Meanwhile, the jobless rate in the Euro-zone remained at a record high in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3561 and a low of 1.3517. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.22% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3555.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3502 and first resistance at 1.3603.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6450 against the USD, 0.23% lower from the New York close. On the data front, consumer confidence in the UK improved in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6500 and a low of 1.6445. Yesterday, the British Pound traded marginally higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6488.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6423 and first resistance at 1.6499.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.42 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.29% lower from the New York close. The Yen found support after the consumer price inflation in Japan inched higher in December. Additionally, better than expected labour market, manufacturing PMI and industrial production data also lifted Yen. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.95 and a low of 102.29. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.16% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.72.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.14 and first resistance at 102.83.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9034 against the Swiss Franc, 0.10% higher from the New York close. In the absence of any major macroeconomic triggers in Switzerland, traders would turn their attention to US economic data for further guidance. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9047 and a low of 0.9020. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.14% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.9025.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8995 and first resistance at 0.9061.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1188 against the CAD, 0.29% higher from the New York close, ahead of the Canadian gross domestic product report to be released later today. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1195 and a low of 1.1153. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.25% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1156.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1159 and first resistance at 1.1206.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8743 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.59% lower from the New York close. Data released this morning indicated that private sector credit in Australia rose 0.5% (MoM) in December. Traders would now keep a tab on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision that is set to release on Tuesday. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8825 and a low of 0.8734. AUD traded 0.29% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8795.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8710 and first resistance at 0.8801.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1245.56 per ounce, 0.16% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1246.69 and a low of $1238.60 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.87% lower, and closed at $1243.63, as greenback strengthened after the US growth report rose in line with market expectations.

Gold has its first support at $1236.80 and first resistance at $1255.68.

Silver
Silver is trading at $19.27 per ounce, 0.57% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.28 and a low of $19.10. Silver traded 1.26% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.16, as the robust growth report from the US confirmed the views of the Fed that growth in the economy has improved in the recent past.

Silver has its first support at $19.02 and first resistance at $19.50.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $97.95 per barrel, 0.10% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $98.23 and a low of $97.62. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.38% higher in the New York session, and closed at $98.07.

It has its first support at $97.49 and first resistance at $98.50.

Economic Snapshot

UK Gfk consumer confidence improved in January
GfK consumer confidence in UK rose to a level of -7.0 in January, higher than market expectations of a level of -12.0 and compared to a reading of -13.0 reported in the previous month.

UK Lloyds business barometer rose in January
The Lloyds business barometer in UK climbed to a level of 63.0 in January, from a level of 48.0 in the previous month.

Consumer price index in the Euro-zone rose less than expected in January
On an annual basis, preliminary consumer price index in the Euro-zone rose 0.7% in January, compared to 0.8% rise in the preceding month. Markets were expecting the consumer price index to rise 0.9% in January.

Unemployment rate in the Euro-zone unchanged in December
The unemployment rate in the Euro-zone remained unchanged at 12.0% in December, compared to the revised value in the preceding month. Markets were expecting the unemployment rate to rise to 12.1% in December.

Retail sales in Germany drop unexpectedly in December
On a monthly basis, retail sales in Germany fell 2.5% in December, compared to a revised rise of 0.9% in the preceding month.

French consumer spending declined, while the producer prices advanced
On a monthly basis, consumer spending in France fell 0.1% in December, following an increase of 1.4% recorded in the preceding month. On a monthly basis, producer prices in France advanced 0.2% in December, slower as compared to a 0.5% rise posted in the previous month.

Unemployment rate in Italy declined in line with market expectations in December
The unemployment rate in Italy declined to 12.7% in December, in line with market expectations and compared to a revised rate of 12.8% recorded in the previous month.

Producer price index in Italy dropped more than expected in December
On a monthly basis, the producer price index in Italy fell 0.1% in December, compared to a similar decline reported in the previous month.

Spain CPI advanced less than forecasts in January
On an annual basis, Spain’s preliminary consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in January, following a 0.3% rise in the previous month and less compared to market expectation of a 0.3% increase.

Spain current account surplus narrowed in November
The current account surplus of Spain narrowed to €0.87 billion in November, following a surplus of €1.71 billion in the previous month.

Japan housing starts and construction orders rose at a faster pace in December
On an annual basis, construction orders in Japan increased 4.9% in December, compared to a 2.2% rise recorded in the previous month. Additionally, on an annual basis, housing starts in Japan climbed by 18.0% in December, following an increase of 14.1% in the preceding month. Meanwhile, annualized housing starts in Japan totaled 1.055 million in December, more compared to revised 1.037 million housing starts recorded in the previous month.

Australia producer price index climbed less than anticipated in Q4
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that on a quarterly basis, the producer price index in Australia rose 0.2% in Q4, following a rise of 1.3% recorded in the preceding quarter. Markets were expecting the producer price index to rise 0.9% in Q4.

Happy pips.
 
Weekly Forex Update

Safe haven buying was the main theme in the currency market last week, with the US Dollar recording handsome gains versus riskier currencies, as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would continue with its tapering program at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, cutting another $10 billion from its monthly purchases.
Economic data released in the US last week was mixed, as new home sales, pending home sales, durable goods orders and initial jobless claims data disappointed investors. However, upbeat services PMI, consumer sentiment and personal spending data supported the greenback's rally. Traders also applauded the release of fourth quarter GDP in the US that grew 3.2%, setting the stage for stronger growth in 2014.
Additionally, the Dallas Fed Chief, Richard Fisher supported the central bank’s tapering action indicating that it should end its bond-buying stimulus effort as quickly as possible.
The Fed’s decision to taper weighed heavily on the emerging-market currencies, which had a volatile week. The Russian Rouble fell sharply, while the Turkish Lira and the South African Rand also plunged despite interest rate hikes by the respective central banks.
The Euro came under pressure to hover near the 1.35 mark against the USD, while the Pound also lost ground and nudged well below its weekly highs, as concerns over slowing global growth and the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Fed weighed on investors’ risk appetite. Moreover, lower than expected inflation in the Euro-zone and Germany further weighed on the performance of EUR, while comments from the Bank of England Governor prompted traders to move away from GBP.
In Switzerland, a leading index for consumer spending, the Swiss UBS consumption indicator, rose to 1.81 in December. Additionally, a forward-looking survey, the KOF economic barometer, advanced for the tenth consecutive month to a reading of 1.98 in January, indicating that the nation’s economy may gain momentum in the first half of 2014.
The Canadian Dollar finished lower for the week. However losses were capped after it rose on Friday following reports that the Canadian economy grew in line with market expectations by 0.2% (MoM) in November, marking the fifth straight monthly increase.
In Australia, a survey by the National Australia Bank (NAB) revealed that the nation’s business conditions surged to its highest in more than two-and-a-half years in December, highlighting improvements in trading conditions and corporate profitability. The report provided much relief to traders, as the Australian Dollar jumped subsequently.
The Kiwi Dollar registered a sharp decline against the USD, slipping to its lowest level since September 2013, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained status quo on its policy on Wednesday and kept interest rates on hold at a record low 2.5%. Additionally, downbeat comments from its Governor, Graeme Wheeler a day after, proved further dampener for the NZD. He indicated that despite nation’s economy growing at a faster rate, high exchange rate has been a “headwind” and that the central bank would like to see a lower exchange rate.

EUR USD
Last week, the EUR traded 1.27% lower against the USD and closed at 1.3504, as the Fed’s decision to continue tapering its bond-buying program weighed on the common currency amid increased demand for the greenback. Economic data released last week from the bloc was uninspiring, with the Euro-zone sentiment indices recording weaker than expected readings for January. Additionally, the labor market in the Euro-area remained in the stagnation in December, while fears of deflation in the Euro-zone rose after the annual inflation rate fell in December to the level that recently led the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, a surprise slump in German retail sales for December and an unexpected easing in the nation’s consumer price inflation further weakened the single currency. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 1.3717 and a low of 1.3479. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3416, with the next support expected at 1.3329. The first resistance is at 1.3654, and the next at 1.3805.

Ahead in the week, investors await a raft of economic data scheduled for release across the Euro-zone. Additionally, all eyes would also set on the ECB’s interest rate decision.

GBP USD
In the last week, GBP traded 0.36% lower against the USD and closed at 1.6440, amid a broad strength in the US Dollar, as investors off-loaded their positions in riskier currencies on fears that the US Fed would continue to taper stimulus measures in months to come. Meanwhile, the Pound also came under pressure after the BoE Governor indicated that low unemployment and easing inflation in UK alone will not warrant a hike in interest rates. He also indicated that more signs of domestic economic recovery are needed to alter the central bank’s policy stance. The Pound had earlier breached the 1.66 mark against the greenback on Tuesday, after growth data for the fourth-quarter confirmed that the UK has emerged from its economic slowdown. The pair traded at a high of 1.6627 and a low of 1.6426 in the previous week. GBPUSD is expected to find its first support at 1.6368, with the next at 1.6297. Resistance exists first at 1.6569, and then at 1.6699.

This week, the BoE monetary policy meeting will attract considerable investor attention. Additionally, a slew of domestic economic releases would also likely hold the key for determining the near term trend in the Pound.

USD JPY
The USD traded 0.08% lower against the JPY over the past week, closing at 102.34. The Yen rose, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ), revealed in its minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting, that  policymakers were of the opinion that an aggressive easy policy started in April 2013 has shown a positive effect on economic prospects and that there is no immediate need for the central bank to further ease policy. Additionally, data released revealed that consumer price inflation in the nation in December climbed at the fastest pace in over five years, heading steadily towards the BoJ’s 2% target. The pair traded at a high of 103.46 and a low of 101.84.The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.64, with the next support expected at 100.93. The first resistance is at 103.26, and the next at 104.17.

Apart from macro releases from Japan ahead in the week, the direction of the JPY is likely to be determined by external factors.

USD CHF
USD traded 1.14% higher against the CHF and closed at 0.9051 in the last week, after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, announced a $10 billion reduction in its bond-buying program to $65 billion a month. Moreover, investors applauded a robust set of economic data released in the US during the previous week. However, losses in the Swiss Franc were capped, after a report indicated a strong improvement in the consumption trend in Switzerland. The UBS consumption indicator rose to a reading of 1.81 in December from a reading of 1.40 points in November. Additionally, the Swiss KOF leading indicator advanced to a level of 1.98 in January from 1.95 in December. During the period, the pair traded at a high of 0.9068 and a low of 0.8931. The first support is at 0.8953, and the next at 0.8874. Resistance exists first at 0.9090, and then at 0.9148.

Ahead in the week, retail sales, trade balance and the SVME manufacturing PMI data from Switzerland will be on radar. Additionally, traders would keep a tab on global news during the week.

USD CAD
Last week, the USD traded 0.45% higher against the CAD and closed at 1.1120, after Fed policy makers agreed on a second reduction in the amount of the central bank's monthly asset purchases. Moreover, traders reduced their positions in riskier currencies like the CAD, amid fears of slowing growth in China and as emerging-market currencies posted heavy losses. However, the Loonie was in demand on Friday, after domestic data revealed that the Canadian economy grew in line with market expectations in November. USDCAD traded at a high of 1.1226 and a low of 1.1029 in the previous week. The first support is at 1.1024, with the next at 1.0928. The first resistance is at 1.1221, while the next is at 1.1322.

Going forward, investors have their plate full with a raft of Canadian data scheduled for release.

AUD USD
AUD traded 0.51% higher against the USD last week, and closed at 0.8752. However, sentiment towards the Australian Dollar remained negative, amid signs of a slowdown in China and after the US Fed decided to trim its monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish stance was supported by its external board member, Heather Ridout, who indicated that the AUD needs to fall even further to protect the economy from a slowdown in mining sector. The only driver for the Aussie during last week was Tuesday's report that showed that business conditions in Australia for December improved to the highest in over two years. The NAB survey reported that business conditions jumped seven points to a reading of 4.0 in December from -3.0 in November. However the business confidence index remained steady at 6.0. During the week, the pair traded at a high of 0.8828 and a low of 0.8676.The first support is at 0.8676, and the next at 0.8600. The first resistance is at 0.8828, and the next at 0.8904.

Ahead in the week, traders would mainly focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, amid expectations that policymakers would keep the benchmark rate unchanged at a record low 2.5%.

Gold
In the prior week, Gold traded 1.80% lower against the USD and closed at USD1244.55, following better than expected reading on consumer sentiment and in-line fourth quarter GDP growth in the US. Gold was initially supported by fears about growth in emerging markets, despite the Fed's decision to taper its stimulus measures. The yellow metal traded at a high of 1276.57 and a low of 1238.17 in the previous week.

Gold is expected to find support at 1229.62 and the next at 1214.70. The first resistance is at 1268.02, while the next is at 1291.50.

Crude Oil
Oil prices traded 0.56% higher against the USD in the last week and closed at USD97.47, as traders cheered strong US growth data, which raised expectations for a rise in oil demand. The Commerce Department reported that the US GDP expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Additionally, bitter cold weather in the US also boosted heating oil demand. However, gains were capped on concerns that manufacturing activity in China is slowing and as the US Fed decided to trim its monetary stimulus. During the week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API), both reported that the US crude oil inventories jumped for the week ended January 24. Oil traded at a high of 98.59 and a low of 95.21 in the previous week. Oil has its first major support at 95.59, while the next support exists at 93.71. The first resistance is at 98.97, and the next at 100.47.

In the week ahead, traders would focus on the global economic indicators and the weekly oil inventories data from EIA and API, for further guidance to oil prices.

Happy pips.
 
Forex Market Update 03Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading lower against its key peers.
On Friday, the USD rose after data indicated that consumer sentiment in the US and the manufacturing activity in Chicago posted upbeat readings in January.
Additionally, the Dallas Fed President indicated that the central bank must try to wind up its bond purchases as soon as possible. Ahead in the week, investors would track speeches from the other Fed Presidents for their opinions on the US economy and how they would they like to adjust the pace of the monthly bond purchases in the future.
The Euro is trading higher, after data released today morning indicated that the Euro-zone’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) advanced to a reading of 54.0 in January, higher than the preliminary estimate of 53.9. Additionally, manufacturing PMI of Germany and France also boosted investors’ risk appetite.
The Swiss Franc advanced against the USD this morning, as manufacturing activity in Switzerland grew at the fastest rate than expected in the first month of 2014.
The Pound came under pressure, after data revealed that manufacturing activity in the UK expanded at the slowest pace in three months in January. 
The Aussie is trading higher against the USD, as investors gear up for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting scheduled later tomorrow.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3514 against the USD, 0.07% higher from the New York close, as manufacturing activity in most of the major economies in the Euro bloc improved in January. Ahead in the week, investors would keenly wait for the outcome of ECB’s monetary policy meeting. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3520 and a low of 1.3477. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.14% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3504.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3469 and first resistance at 1.3566.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6334 against the USD, 0.64% lower from the New York close, as manufacturing PMI in the UK deteriorated in January, triggering speculations that the British economy might not be able to sustain its previous year’s growth momentum. Data released overnight showed that, house prices in the UK rose at a slower pace in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6443 and a low of 1.6330. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.14% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6440.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6280 and first resistance at 1.6437.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.73 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.60% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.42 and a low of 101.70. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.10% higher against the JPY, and closed at 102.34.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.46 and first resistance at 102.25.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9043 against the Swiss Franc, 0.09% lower from the New York close. The Swiss Franc found support after a report revealed that manufacturing activity in Switzerland rose more than market expectations for January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9083 and a low of 0.9036. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.69% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9051.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9006 and first resistance at 0.9081.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1059 against the CAD, 0.54% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1135 and a low of 1.1052. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.69% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1120. The Loonie inched higher after data revealed that the Canadian economy grew in line with market expectations in November.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0999 and first resistance at 1.1173.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8795 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.49% higher from the New York close, ahead of tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting by the RBA, amid increased speculations that the central bank might leave the rates unchanged. In economic news, the Australian AiG performance of manufacturing index fell to 46.7 in January. Meanwhile, building permits dropped in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8799 and a low of 0.8737. AUD traded 0.47% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8752.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8726 and first resistance at 0.8831.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1246.42 per ounce, 0.14% higher from the New York close, as the greenback weakened. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1247.77 and a low of $1240.97 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.35% lower, and closed at $1244.69.

Gold has its first support at $1239.02 and first resistance at $1254.41.

Silver
Silver is trading at $19.25 per ounce, 0.34% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.29 and a low of $19.09. Silver traded 0.85% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.18.

Silver has its first support at $19.06 and first resistance at $19.45.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $97.14 per barrel, 0.40% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $97.54 and a low of $96.78. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.25% higher in the New York session, and closed at $97.50.

It has its first support at $96.48 and first resistance at $98.09.

Economic Snapshot

UK house prices climbed in January, indicated Hometrack
On a monthly basis, the average asking prices for a house in UK rose 0.3% in January, compared to a 0.5% rise recorded in the previous month.

UK manufacturing PMI dropped unexpectedly in January
The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in UK fell to a reading of 56.7 in January, following to a downwardly revised reading of 57.2 reported in the preceding month. Markets had expected PMI to rise to a reading of 57.3 in January.

Euro-zone manufacturing PMI expands more than preliminary estimate in January
The final manufacturing PMI in the Euro-zone increased to a reading of 54.0 in January, more than preliminary estimate of 53.9 and compared a reading of 52.7 reported in the previous month.

Germany manufacturing PMI advanced more than the flash estimate in January
The final manufacturing PMI in Germany rose to a reading of 56.5 in January, from a level of 54.3 in the preceding month and more than the flash estimate of 56.3.

French manufacturing PMI rises more than the flash estimate in January
The final manufacturing PMI in France rose to a reading of 49.3 in January, more than the preliminary estimate of a level of 48.8 and after a reading of 47.0 recorded in the preceding month.

Italian manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped in January
The manufacturing PMI in Italy fell to a level of 53.1 in January, compared to a reading of 53.3 recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the index to increase to a reading of 53.5 in January.

Spanish manufacturing activity expanded more than estimates in January
The manufacturing PMI in Spain rose to a reading of 52.2 in January, compared to a level of 50.8 reported in the previous month. Markets were expecting that the Spanish manufacturing PMI would rise to a level of 51.5 in January.

Swiss manufacturing PMI increased more than estimates in January
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SVME) PMI in Switzerland rose to a reading of 56.1 in January, compared to an upwardly revised reading of 55.0 in the previous month. Market had expected the index to rise to a reading of 55.4 in January.

Australia’s RBA commodity price index decline in January
On an annual basis, the RBA commodity index in SDR terms in Australia dropped 9.9% in January, compared to a revised 3.6% fall recorded in December.

Australia building approvals dropped more than anticipated in December
On a monthly basis, building approvals in Australia dropped 2.9% in December, compared to a revised 0.3% decline in the preceding month. Markets were expecting building approvals to drop 0.5% in December.

Chinese official non-manufacturing PMI fell in January
The NBS non-manufacturing PMI in China dropped to a reading of 53.4 in January, from a reading of 54.6 in the previous month.

Happy pips.
 
Forex Market Update 04Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading mixed against most of the major currencies.
Yesterday, the greenback came under pressure after a report showed that activities in the US manufacturing sector contracted more than market expectations in January. Separately, the US Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lew, warned the possibility of a US government default, should the Congress fail to extend the nation’s debt ceiling on an urgent basis.
Ahead in the day, domestic factory orders from the US would remain in focus following disappointing manufacturing data released yesterday.
The Euro advanced against the greenback in the yesterday’s session as risk-appetite among investors increased after manufacturing PMI in the Euro-zone and most of its periphery nations rose in January. However, the common currency came under pressure this morning, after data released earlier today showed that the number of unemployed people in Spain rose more than expected in January.
The Pound is trading higher against the US Dollar, after a report revealed that the activities in the UK construction sector accelerated at the fastest pace in 6-1/2 years in January.
The Aussie rose against its US counterpart, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.5% and shifted its policy stance away from easing rates, citing higher than forecast inflation.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, indicated the Japanese economy would achieve its 2% inflation target by the latter half of FY2014 to early FY2015.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3516 against the USD, 0.09% lower from the New York close, amid expectations that the ECB Chief, might need to further loosen its monetary stance, to boost economic activities in the Euro region. In economic news, Euro-zone’s producer price index rose 0.2% (MoM) in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3540 and a low of 1.3502. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.27% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3528.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3487 and first resistance at 1.3543.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6332 against the USD, 0.17% higher from the New York close, after data showed that activities in the UK construction sector unexpectedly accelerated at the fastest pace in more than six years in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6347 and a low of 1.6273. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.21% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6305.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6270 and first resistance at 1.6381.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.28 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.27% higher from the New York close. The BoJ Governor indicated that the Japanese economy was progressing towards the central bank’s 2% inflation target and that by second half of 2014 it could achieve the target. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.51 and a low of 100.89. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.95% lower against the JPY, and closed at 101.01.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 100.64 and first resistance at 102.04.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9039 against the Swiss Franc, 0.33% higher from the New York close. In today’s market action, investors would track global macroeconomic data in determining the trend in the pair. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9051 and a low of 0.9012. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.51% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9009.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9008 and first resistance at 0.9066.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1117 against the CAD, tad lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1125 and a low of 1.1069. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.41% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1118. In a key development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Canada might drop its plan of eliminating budget deficit by 2015, should economic growth remain sluggish. The agency also predicted that the Canadian economy would grow 2.25% in 2014, accelerating from an estimated 1.75% in 2013.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1063 and first resistance at 1.1148.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8880 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 1.46% higher from the New York close, as investors cheered the RBA’s decision to keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. Adding to positive sentiment were comments from RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, who stated that the central bank’s current monetary policy is appropriate to foster sustainable growth in the economy and that it might not introduce further rate cuts in the near future. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8916 and a low of 0.8729. AUD traded 0.50% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8752.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8767 and first resistance at 0.8954.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1254.27 per ounce, 0.26% lower from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1261.15 and a low of $1252.45 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.75% higher, and closed at $1257.50, amid a broad weakness in the US Dollar. Positive sentiment for the precious metal was also fuelled after the Indian government slashed its import tariff on gold and silver.

Gold has its first support at $1243.56 and first resistance at $1265.70.

Silver
Silver is trading at $19.35 per ounce, 0.07% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.50 and a low of $19.32. Silver traded 0.20% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.34, as a weakness in the US Dollar and a cut in the Indian import tariff of gold and silver bolstered the demand outlook of the commodity.

Silver has its first support at $19.15 and first resistance at $19.60.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $96.56 per barrel, 0.10% lower from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $96.94 and a low of $96.43. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.96% lower in the New York session, and closed at $96.64, as the latest batch of weak manufacturing data from the US and China weighed on the global demand-outlook of the commodity.

It has its first support at $95.90 and first resistance at $97.58.

Economic Snapshot

UK construction PMI unexpectedly advanced in January
The construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the UK rose to a reading of 64.6 in January, defying market expectation for a drop to 61.5, from previous month’s reading of 62.1.

Euro-zone’s producer price index fell less than market expectations in December
On an annual basis, producer price index in the Euro-zone fell 0.8% in December, less than market expectations for a fall to 0.9% and following a 1.2% fall in the previous month. On a monthly basis, the Euro-zone’s producer price index rose 0.2% in December, compared to a 0.1% fall recorded in the previous month.

Italian consumer prices rose at a similar pace in January
On a monthly basis, the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Italy rose 0.2% in January, compared to a similar rise in the previous month and in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, the preliminary CPI gained 0.7% in January, following a similar rise in the previous month. Annual CPI according to EU norm rose 0.6% in January, against a rise of 0.7%, recorded in the previous month.

Spain unemployment climbed in January
Unemployment in Spain climbed to a level of 113,100 in January, following a market expectation of a level of 100,000 and against a decline of 107,600 reported in the preceding month.

BoJ to attain inflation target in latter half of 2014
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, opined that Japan is making steady progress towards meeting its 2% inflation target and will achieve it in the second half of 2014 through early 2015.

RBA maintained its key interest rate steady
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, in line with market expectations. Additionally, the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens, indicated that interest rates could remain at the current levels in the near future, given the improving domestic and global economic prospects.

Happy pips.
 
Forex Market Update 05Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading mostly higher against most of the major currencies.
Yesterday, the US Dollar rose after the Richmond Fed President indicated that the nation’s labor market has shown significant improvements in the recent past which might induce the central bank to cut the pace of its bond purchases in the future. Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed Chief voiced his concerns about the low inflationary pressures in the nation.
Data released yesterday revealed that factory orders in the US dropped in December, although the decline was less than market expectations. A separate report released by the Institute of Supply Management showed that business conditions in New York improved in January. Ahead in the day, investors’ would keep a close tab on the ADP jobs report to evaluate the health of nation’s labor market.
The Euro came under pressure after a report revealed that retail sales in the Euro-region unexpectedly fell in December. Additionally, services PMI in Germany unexpectedly declined in January. Another report showed that the Euro-zone’s service and composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose less than market expectations for January. However, service PMI in Spain, Italy and France rose more than market expectation in January.
Investors also remained cautious ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate announcement tomorrow.
The Pound is trading lower against its US counterpart after a report showed that activities in the UK service sector unexpectedly slowed in January. The Bank of England policymakers begins a monthly two-day meeting today, amid expectations that they would leave interest rates at record low of 0.5%.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3511 against the USD, slightly lower from the New York close, after a report showed a larger than expected drop in the Euro bloc’s December retail sales. Moreover, the bloc’s service and composite PMI rose, however failed to meet market expectations. Additionally, Germany service PMI fell in January. Separately, another report revealed that services PMI in Spain, Italy and France advanced in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3529 and a low of 1.3502. Yesterday, the EUR traded tad lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3517.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3492 and first resistance at 1.3531.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6275 against the USD, 0.33% lower from the New York close, following an unexpected contraction in the UK’s service sector activities in January. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6343 and a low of 1.6276. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.06% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6329.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6245 and first resistance at 1.6326.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.18 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.48% lower from the New York close. In economic news, labor cash earnings in Japan rose 0.8% (YoY) in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.78 and a low of 101.18. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.41% higher against the JPY, and closed at 101.67.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 100.93 and first resistance at 101.61.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9050 against the Swiss Franc, 0.12% higher from the New York close. In economic news, the UBS reported that its Swiss real estate bubble index advanced in the fourth quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9053 and a low of 0.9034. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded marginally higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.9039. 

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9028 and first resistance at 0.9067.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1054 against the CAD, 0.21% lower from the New York close. Looking ahead investors would keep a close tab on Canada’s building permits data for December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1099 and a low of 1.1056. Yesterday, the USD traded slightly lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1077. The Canadian Dollar gained ground against its US counterpart after oil prices rose.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1027 and first resistance at 1.1100.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8928 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, mostly unchanged from the New York close. Early morning, the AiG reported an improvement in the performance of its service index for Australia in January. Separately, the Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott expressed concerns on the softening economic condition of the nation and highlighted his desire to maximize jobs and pay in the economy. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8941 and a low of 0.8881. AUD traded 0.35% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8928.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8885 and first resistance at 0.8958.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1257.26 per ounce, 0.19% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1258.65 and a low of $1252.74 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded tad higher, and closed at $1254.90. However, the greenback was in demand after two eminent Fed officials hinted their support for further tapering of monetary stimulus.

Gold has its first support at $1250.01 and first resistance at $1261.58.

Silver
Silver is trading at $19.62 per ounce, 0.53% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.70 and a low of $19.46. Silver traded 0.56% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.51.

Silver has its first support at $19.37 and first resistance at $19.78.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $98.10 per barrel, 0.30% higher from the New York close, ahead of the weekly inventory update from the Energy Information Administration later during the day. Late yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a less-than-expected 384,000 barrels rise in the US crude stockpiles for the week ended January 31. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $98.26 and a low of $97.19. Yesterday, Oil traded 1.32% higher in the New York session, and closed at $97.76, as cold weather in the US boosted demand for the commodity.

It has its first support at $96.89 and first resistance at $98.78.

Economic Snapshot

UK BRC retail sales declined in January
On an annual basis, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) like-for-like retail sales in UK fell 1.0% in January, compared to a 0.8% decline recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting like-for-like retail sales to decrease 0.7% in January.

UK services PMI unexpectedly fell in January
The Markit services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in UK fell to a reading of 58.3 in January, from a reading of 58.8 in the previous month. Market had expected the index to rise to a reading of 59.0 in January.

UK’s official reserves rose in January
The Bank of England (BoE) reported that the official reserves in the UK rose by $431.0 million in January, compared to a fall of $536.0 million reported in the previous month.

Euro-zone services PMI advanced less than the preliminary estimate in January
Euro-zone final Markit services PMI rose to a level of 51.6 in January, less than the preliminary estimate of 51.9 and compared to a level of 51.0 recorded in December. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone final composite PMI advanced to a level of 52.9 in January, compared to a level of 52.1 recorded in December.

Euro-zone retail sales fell more than forecast in December
On a monthly basis, retail sales in the Euro-zone declined 1.6% in December, after recording a downwardly revised rise of 0.9% in the previous month. Market had expected retail sales to drop 0.5% in December. On an annual basis, retail sales in the Euro-zone dropped 1.0% in December, compared to a downwardly revised increase of 1.3% reported in November.

German services PMI unexpectedly declined in January
Germany’s final Markit services PMI declined to a level of 53.1 in January, less than the preliminary estimate of a level of 53.6 and compared to a level of 53.5 recorded in December.

French final services PMI rose more than the preliminary estimate in January
France’s Markit services PMI rose to a level of 48.9 in January, from a level of 47.8 reported in December.

Italy services PMI advanced more than forecasts in January
Markit services PMI in Italy rose to a reading of 49.4 in January, following a reading of 47.9 in the previous month. Market had expected the index to rise to a reading of 48.6 in January.

Spanish services PMI inched up more than forecasts in January
Markit services PMI in Spain edged up to a reading of 54.9 in January, compared to a reading of 54.2 reported in the previous month. Market had expected the index to rise to a reading of 54.8 in January.

Switzerland’s UBS real estate bubble index edged up in the Q4 2013
The UBS real estate bubble index in Switzerland rose to 1.23 in Q4 2013, compared to 1.20 reported in the previous quarter.

Japan’s labor cash earnings rose in December
On an annual basis, labor cash earnings in Japan advanced 0.8% in December, compared to an upwardly revised 0.6% increase recorded in the previous month.

Happy pips.
 
Forex Market Update 06Fev14

This morning, the greenback is trading mixed against most of the major currencies.
Yesterday, the US Dollar declined against major counterparts, after data revealed that private-sector employment in the US rose less-than-expected in January. However the losses in the greenback were capped after the Philadelphia Fed President, Charles Plosser urged the central bank to accelerate the pace of tapering its stimulus measure, while the Atlanta Fed Chief, Dennis Lockhart hinted the possibility for the Fed’s QE tapering to continue at current pace and eventually end in 2014.
In a key development, ratings agency, Moody’s indicated that an increase in the US debt ceiling this week, could in no way deteriorate the nation’s “AAA” credit rating. Meanwhile, the Fitch Ratings opined that the timeliness of government actions could determine how it would resolve a negative outlook on the nation’s top “AAA” rating.
The EUR and the GBP are trading lower against its US counterpart this morning, ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision.
The Japanese Yen is trading tad lower against the US Dollar. Earlier during the day, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor, Kikuo Iwata, stated that the Japanese economy remains on track to achieve its 2% inflation target toward the second half of 2015. He further added that the BoJ would not end its ultra-loose monetary policy unless the nation achieves its inflation target in a stable manner.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3531 against the USD, tad lower from the New York close, ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision. Data released today morning indicated that factory orders in Germany fell unexpectedly in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3541 and a low of 1.3518. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.07% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3534.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3504 and first resistance at 1.3557.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6292 against the USD, 0.11% lower from the New York close, as investors await the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate and asset purchase decision. Early this morning, the Halifax reported that house prices in the UK economy rose at the fastest pace in three months in January, on the back of low borrowing costs and improving consumer sentiment. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6331 and a low of 1.6292. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.28% higher versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6310.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6251 and first resistance at 1.6334.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 101.53 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, marginally higher from the New York close. Earlier today, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor, Kikuo Iwata stated that the central bank would not end its ultra-loose monetary policy unless the nation achieves its 2% inflation target. However, he hinted the possibility for the amount of the BoJ’s bond purchases to vary from month to month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.68 and a low of 101.39. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.40% higher against the JPY, and closed at 101.49.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 100.99 and first resistance at 101.88.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9036 against the Swiss Franc, tad lower from the New York close. In economic news, an official report revealed that Swiss trade surplus narrowed more than expectations in December. Another report showed that consumer confidence in Switzerland surpassed analysts’ estimates in the fourth quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9052 and a low of 0.9036. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded marginally lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9037.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9007 and first resistance at 0.9062.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1066 against the CAD, 0.15% lower from the New York close. Investors keenly await Canada’s trade balance and Ivey purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for further direction in the Loonie. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1085 and a low of 1.1060. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.15% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1083. The Canadian Dollar lost ground, after data showed that Canadian building permits unexpectedly declined in December.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.1027 and first resistance at 1.1114.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.8955 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.49% higher from the New York close. Earlier during the day, data revealed a strong rise in Australia’s trade surplus for December and after the nation’s retail sales advanced for the eighth consecutive month in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8982 and a low of 0.8914. AUD traded 0.13% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.8911.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8907 and first resistance at 0.8993.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1259.84 per ounce, 0.14% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1260.44 and a low of $1255.22 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded marginally lower, and closed at $1258.02.

Gold has its first support at $1249.94 and first resistance at $1272.24.

Silver
Silver is trading at $20.10 per ounce, 1.00% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $20.11 and a low of $19.89. Silver traded 1.30% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.91.

Silver has its first support at $19.70 and first resistance at $20.41.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $97.77 per barrel, 0.50% higher from the New York close. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $97.90 and a low of $97.25. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.38% lower in the New York session, and closed at $97.30. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that crude oil inventories rose by 440,000 barrels for the week ended January 31.

It has its first support at $96.99 and first resistance at $98.35.

Economic Snapshot

UK Halifax house prices advanced at a slower pace in January
On an annual basis, Halifax house prices in UK rose 7.3% for the period of three months ended January, more than market expectations, following an increase of 7.5% recorded in the preceding three months. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, Halifax house prices in UK advanced 1.1% in January, compared to a revised 0.5% decline recorded in the previous month.

German factory orders fell unexpectedly in December  
On a monthly basis, factory orders in Germany eased 0.5% in December, following an upwardly rise of 2.4% recorded in the preceding month. Markets projected the factory orders to rise 0.4% compared to the previous month. On an annual basis, factory orders in Germany climbed 6.0% in December, compared to an upwardly revised increase of 7.2% in the previous month.

Switzerland SECO consumer climate improved more than forecasts in Q4 2013
SECO consumer climate in Switzerland rose to a level of 2.0 in Q4 2013, higher than market expectation of a level of 1.0 and compared to a reading of -5.0 reported in the previous quarter.

Swiss trade surplus narrowed more than expected in December.
The trade surplus of Switzerland narrowed to CHF 0.5 billion in December, following a revised surplus of CHF 2.0 billion recorded in the previous month. Market had expected Switzerland’s trade surplus to narrow to CHF 1.0 billion in December. On a monthly basis, imports in Switzerland rose 1.2% in December, following a downwardly revised rise of 6.5% recorded in the preceding month. On a monthly basis, exports in Switzerland rose 0.9% in December, compared to a downwardly revised 3.0% increase recorded in November.

Tokyo average office vacancies in Japan rose at a slower pace in January
Average office vacancies in Tokyo in Japan advanced 7.2% in January, compared to a 7.3% rise recorded in the previous month.

Japan making steady progress to achieve 2% inflation target, indicated BoJ’s Deputy Governor Iwata
The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Deputy Governor, Kikuo Iwata, stated that Japan remains on track to achieve the 2% inflation target toward the second half of fiscal year 2015. He also indicated that the central bank can adopt more stimulus policies if required to meet its inflation target.

Australia NAB business confidence rose in Q4 2013
National Australia Bank’s (NAB) business confidence in Australia edged up to a level of 8.0 in Q4 2013, compared to a revised level of 5.0 reported in the previous quarter.

Australia retail sales rise at a slower pace in December
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales in Australia advanced 0.5% in December, in line with market expectations, compared to a 0.7% rise in the previous month. On a quarterly basis, retail sales ex-inflation in Australia rose 0.9% in Q4 2013, compared to a revised 0.8% increase recorded in the previous quarter.

Australia’s trade surplus widened in December
On a seasonally adjusted basis, trade surplus of Australia widened to A$468.0 million in December, compared to a revised surplus of A$83.0 million recorded in the previous month. Market had expected Australia to report a trade deficit of A$200.0 million in December.

Happy pips.
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