Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for USD/CNH - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.28 15:48

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH - "Two major event risks from China’s counterpart is Fed’s February rate decision on Wednesday and the U.S. January Non-farm Payroll (NFP) print on Friday. The USD/CNH has been retracing within a range after the offshore Yuan strengthened to a two-month high. Within such a context, moves from the U.S. side may give out more clues on the next trend for the Dollar/Yuan. For Fed’s release on Wednesday, the benchmark interest rates will likely remain unchanged, with an odds of only 12% of a rate hike. There will be no updates on economic forecasts and no press conference from Chair Yellen; the major focus will be on the sentiment in Fed’s minutes. Also, the January U.S. labor market report is expected to heavily weigh on the Dollar/Yuan after China’s onshore markets reopens. Two weeks ago, Yellen addressed on positive development in the labor market. If the NFP print on Friday came in stronger, it will provide more support to the U.S. Dollar."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.01 07:37

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and 63 pips range price movement

2017-02-01 01:00 GMT | [CNH - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNH - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From businessinsider article:

"The manufacturing sector in China continued to expand in January, albeit at a slightly slower pace, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.3."

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USD/CNH M5: 63 pips range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.03 09:30

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 112 pips range price movement

2017-02-03 01:45 GMT | [CNH - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNH in our case)

[CNH - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report:

  • "The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted 51.0 in January to signal a further improvement in the health of the sector. However, the reading was down from December’s 47-month record of 51.9, and was consistent with only a marginal rate of improvement."

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USD/CNH M5: 112 pips range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.03 09:49

USD/CNH - weekly correction, daily bearish (adapted from the artile)

Weekly price is above Ichimoku cloud: the price was bounced from 6.9869 resistance level to below for support level at 6.7818 to be testing for the correction to be started.


  • "The People's Bank of China unexpectedly raised its interest rates on open market operations and funds provided through Standing Lending Facility on Friday, adding to speculation of further tightening ahead."
  • "The central bank raised the 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 2.35 percent. Similarly, the 14-day reverse repo rate was lifted to 2.5 percent."
  • "The overnight rate for the Standing Lending Facility loan was hiked to 3.1 percent from 2.75 percent. The tightening measure is set to control the over-leveraging of Chinese corporates."


Daily price in on bearish ranging located below Ichimoku cloud within the following s/r levels:

  • 6.8770 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 6.7996 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

Chinkou Span line and Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the trend as the ranging bearish, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible trend as the bullish.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.10 06:45

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 56 pips range price movement

2017-02-10 02:57 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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From whylose article: China Trade balance, exports & imports beat expectations in CNY terms

  • "China’s trade balance for January, in Yuan terms, came in at 354.5 billion CNY vs 307.25 expected and 275.40bn last. Exports came at 15.9% y/y vs 5.2%"

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USD/CNH M5: 56 pips range price movement by CGAC Trade Balance news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.14 07:56

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and 29 pips range price movement

2017-02-14 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From rttnews article:

  • "Consumer prices in China were up 2.5 percent on year in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday."
  • "The bureau also said that producer prices climbed an annual 6.9 percent - topping expectations for 6.6 percent and up sharply from 5.5 percent in the previous month."

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USD/CNH M5: 29 pips range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.25 07:16

Weekly Outlook: 2017, February 26 - March 05 (based on the article)

Durable Goods Orders, GDP data from the US, Australia, and Canada, US Consumer Confidence, Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims and rate decision in Canada. These are the main events on forex calendar.


  1. US Durable Goods Orders: Monday, 13:30. Durable Goods Orders are expected to climb 1.6% while core orders are expected to gain 0.5%.
  2. US GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. US GDP growth is expected to reach 2.1% in the fourth quarter.
  3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. Consumer moral is expected to register 111.1 in January.
  4. Australian GDP data: Wednesday, 0:30. Economists expect the Australian economy will grow by 0.7% in the fourth quarter.
  5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. The BoC upwardly revised its 2017 GDP outlook to 2.1%, despite the strong Canadian dollar weighing on exporters as well as concerns over US trading policy.
  6. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 56.1 this time.
  7. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  8. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 13:30. Analysts expect a growth rate of 0.3% in December.
  9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of claims is expected to inch up to 245,000 this week.
  10. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. US services sector is expected to reach 56.6 in February.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.26 12:14

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH - "One of the most important events for the NPC conference will be Premier Li Keqiang’s government work report. This will be delivered at the opening day of the NPC meetings. Economic growth and CPI targets for 2017 are expected to be released in this report. Another key measure to be released in the report is the fiscal deficit ratio, which reflects China’s fiscal policy. China’s Central Bank has been tightening liquidity in the effort to bring monetary policy back to neutral, from slightly loose. Within such context, the country may have to reply more on fiscal policy to stimulate the economy. In the annual Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2016, policymakers told that China will adopt a more proactive fiscal policy."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.01 07:03

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 40 pips range price movement 

2017-03-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 51.0
  • forecast data is 50.9
  • actual data is 51.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report:

  • "At 51.7, the seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – picked up from 51.0 in January and signalled an improvement in overall business conditions for the sixth month in a row. Though modest overall, the latest improvement was the joint-second strongest for just over four years."
  • "Companies continued to report lower staff numbers in February, as has been the case in each month since November 2013. That said, the rate of job shedding was the slowest seen for two years. Higher new orders and lower staffing levels contributed to a modest rise in unfinished business in February."

==========

USD/CNH M5: 40 pips range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.04 11:39

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH - "The New Yuan loans, a major indicator that may impact the PBOC’s monetary policy, is expected to drop to 920 billion Yuan in February from 2.030 trillion Yuan in the month prior, the second-highest level on record. In order to curb excess liquidity flowing into the housing market and other financial markets, the PBOC has been delicately managing its cash injections through open market operations. The Central Bank withdrew a net of 280 billion Yuan this week and has been removing liquidity from markets for the seventh consecutive trading days. The regulator targets to bring monetary policy back to neutral from slightly loose. Total new credit issued, home loans and property prices are three key gauges that the regulator may use to evaluate whether monetary policy has returned to neutral."


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