Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 3

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 18:33

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the precious metal down 2.67% to trade at 1201 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Bullion is down more than 5% off the yearly high and has been fueled by expectations for higher borrowing costs from the Fed. Heading into next week, the quarterly FOMC policy meeting will be central focus with gold approaching key near-term support targets of interest."


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.14 16:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, Bitcoin/USD and Gold (XAU/USD): U.S. Producer Price Index

2017-03-14 12:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report:

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January and 0.2 percent in December. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended February 2017, the largest advance since a 2.4-percent increase in the 12 months ended March 2012."
  • "In February, over 80 percent of the advance in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods moved up 0.3 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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Bitcoin/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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Gold (XAU/USD) M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events



 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:34

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold prices are higher this week with the precious metal up more than 2% to trade at 1229 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The rally marks the first weekly advance this month and comes alongside a sharp sell-off in the greenback and while the near-term picture may see prices struggle, the technical implications suggest gold may have turned a corner. However with the committee’s outlook broadly re-affirming expectations for three rate hikes this year, the greenback seems to be faltering - for gold prices, a softer dollar and an uptick in the central bank’s Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) projections were just the trigger needed to fuel a recovery as prices responded to a key support zone noted last week. Looking ahead to next week, event risk simmers down a bit with February Existing Home Sales & Durable Goods Orders highlighting the U.S. economic docket."


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.24 15:56

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Gold (XAU/USD) and USD/CNH: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-03-24 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 2.0%
  • forecast data is 1.1%
  • actual data is 1.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From abcnews article:

  • "The Commerce Department said Friday that orders for durable goods rose 1.7 percent in February and an upwardly revised 2.3 percent in January. Orders so far this year are running 1.6 percent higher than in the first two months of 2016."
  • "The growth indicates that manufacturers are steadily recovering from a rough patch that began in 2015 when lower energy prices and slowereconomic growth worldwide cut into demand for U.S. factory goods. The report contained some weakness in a few sectors such as motor vehicles, but it is among several indicators that point to an ongoing rebound."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events



 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:37

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead to next week, traders will be eyeing the third and final read on U.S. 4Q GDP with consensus estimates calling for an upward revision to 2% from 1.9%. Aside from the economic docket, look for a fresh batch of Fed rhetoric to drive USD / Gold price action with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Chair Janet Yellen, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari slated for commentary next week. Markets are priced for three hikes in 2017 and for gold, the fuel for a sustained push higher could be sparked by either a shift in the Fed’s tone or a broader turnover in equity markets- (note the SPX posted its largest weekly loss since November this week)."


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