Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for GBP/USD - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.17 07:44

GBP/USD - bullish daily ranging with symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for the direction ofthe trend to be started (based on the article)

The price is on ranging above Ichimoku cloud within the narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 1.2581 resistance level, and
  • 1.2346 support level.

Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the direction of the trend, and the price is breaking this pattern to above for the bullish trend to be resumed if 1.2581 level is broken to above on close daily bar. 


"Recent GBP/USD action is consistent with a range but perhaps within a new trend (higher). The area around 1.2400 (55 day average, former highs and lows) should still be watched for support. Weakness below (daily close) would put the year open at 1.2278 back on the map. Daily highs from late January cluster around 1.2600 and is where I’d watch for near term resistance."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.17 12:51

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 59 pips range price movement

2017-02-17 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

  • past data is -2.1%
  • forecast data is 1.0%
  • actual data is -0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

  • "In January 2017, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have increased by 1.5% compared with January 2016, the lowest growth since November 2013."
  • "Month-on-month the quantity bought is estimated to have fallen by 0.3%."

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GBP/USD M5: 59 pips range price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.22 11:16

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and 35 pips range price movement

2017-02-22 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.7% between Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016 and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016, revised up 0.1 percentage points from the preliminary estimate of GDP published on 26 January 2017. Upward revisions (due to later data received) within the manufacturing industries is the main reason (these revisions were first published as part of the Index of Production for December 2016 released on 10 February 2017)."
  • "UK GDP growth in Quarter 4 2016 saw a continuation of strong consumer spending which is in line with the Retail Sales Index for Quarter 4, which grew by 1.2% (published on 20 January 2017) and strong growth in the output of the services sector with a notable contribution in consumer-focused industries. In Quarter 4 2016, there has been a slowdown within business investment which fell by 1.0%, driven by subdued growth within the “ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment” assets."

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GBP/USD M5: 35 pips range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.26 11:46

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The BoE’s wait-and-see approach may continue to prop up the British Pound as the central bank drops it dovish tone, but the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound may gather pace over the coming months as the U.K.’s departure from the U.K. dampens the long-term prospects for sustainable growth. Indeed, the stickiness in the pound-dollar exchange rate may start unravel over the coming days should the batch of key U.S. data prints boost interest-rate expectations. A rebound in U.S. Durable Goods Orders accompanied by an upward revision in the 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more hawkish tone at the next interest rate decision on March 15, and the slew of fresh speeches from the group of 2017 voting-members (Dallas Fed PresidentRobert Kaplan, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer and Chair Janet Yellen) may heighten the appeal of the greenback should a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to further normalize monetary policy ‘sooner rather than later.’ Even though the FOMC Minutes failed to boost bets for a March rate-hike, Fed Fund Futures continue to price a greater than 60% probability for a move in June, and the deviating paths for monetary policy continues to instill a long-term bearish forecast for GBP/USD especially as the BoE keeps the door open to further embark on its easing-cycle."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.04 11:37

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The week ahead is fairly light with U.K. data, with Friday being the highlight as we receive a batch of medium-importance announcements on industrial and manufacturing production (January figures), trade balance figures (January) and the NIESR GDP estimate for the month of February. The bigger drive to the British currency in the week ahead will likely emanate from foreign themes, such as a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. As Sterling tests historically weak-values on the chart, the litmus for continued losses will likely continue to increase; meaning that data will likely need to print extremely poorly for the longer-term zone of support around the 1.2000 figure to finally give way."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.10 15:08

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, BTC/USD and Brent Crude Oil: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-03-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 238K
  • forecast data is 196K
  • actual data is 235K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining."
  • "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down from +157,000 to +155,000, and the change for January was revised up from +227,000 to +238,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 9,000 more than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 209,000 per month."

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EUR/USD M5: 45 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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GBP/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Brent Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.15 15:01

GBP/USD - pre-FOMC movement and levels (based on the article)

H4 price is on the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition: the price is on testing with Senkou Span line to above for the possible bullish reversal to be loacted inside the ranging Ichimoku cloud.


  • "For those looking to take a directional stance on the pair, the short-side could continue to present challenges given this long-term zone of support just underneath current price action. The bullish side could be difficult to work with as well, at least until some element of a bullish driver shows up; and given that we’re sitting just ahead of FOMC and then a BoE rate decision tomorrow morning, the potential is certainly there."
  • "For those that do want to look at a bullish stance in Cable, a break back-above that key zone around 1.2250 could make the setup a bit more attractive. Let buyers push prices higher above-resistance first to indicate that bulls may be able to continue driving-forward; at which point seeking out a ‘higher low’ at a prior level of resistance could open the door to top-side setups, with the goal of trading the longer-term range in the pair."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.15 19:33

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and EUR/USD: Fed Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2017-03-15 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 0.75%
  • forecast data is 1.00%
  • actual data is 1.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report:

  • "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance."
  • "The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 1.00 percent, effective March 16, 2017."

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GBP/USD M5: 85 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events


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EUR/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:26

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "At this week’s BoE rate decision, we saw the first vote for a rate hike post-Brexit, and this came from Ms. Kristin Forbes. The meeting minutes indicated that other members may vote for a rate hike in the coming months, and the reaction since that rate decision has been GBP-strength. In her testimonial, Ms. Forbes says that while Brexit will continue to dominate the news and public debate, the BoE remains steadfast towards their mandate of 2% inflation. She remarked that inflation is already very close to the bank’s target today; but the BoE forecast of 2.7% inflation within a year warrants attention. For the next week, the forecast on the British Pound will be held as neutral. More signs of confirmed inflationary forces will need to be seen before a bullish forecast can be initiated."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.20 18:12

UK To Trigger Article 50 On March 29 (based on the article)

The primary bearish is the long-term trend tendency for the pair: monthly price broke Ichimoku cloud to below in augist 2014 for the bearish marklet condition. Fow now, the price is continuing with the bearish market condition with 1.1475 medium-term bearish target to re-enter for example.


  • "British Prime Minister Theresa May will invoke the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty next Wednesday, March 29, thus formally beginning the process of exiting the European Union."
  • "UK's Ambassador to the EU Tim Barrow informed European Council President Donald Tusk of the the government's intention to trigger Article 50 earlier on Monday, Brexit secretary David Davis said in a statement."


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