Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for AUD/USD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.19 07:21

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 20 pips range price movement

2017-01-19 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 37.1K
  • forecast data is 10.2K
  • actual data is 13.5K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report:

  • Employment increased 13,500 to 11,985,900. Full-time employment increased 9,300 to 8,176,500 and part-time employment increased 4,200 to 3,809,500.
  • Unemployment increased 14,700 to 741,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 15,000 to 528,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 300 to 212,200.
  • Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 5.8%.
  • Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 64.7%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.9 million hours to 1,670.4 million hours.

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AUD/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.25 08:58

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Consumer Price Index and 57 pips range price movement

2017-01-25 00:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

  • "rose 0.5% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.7% in the September quarter 2016."
  • "rose 1.5% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2016, compared with a rise of 1.3% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 57 pips range price movement by Australian Consumer Price Index news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.27 09:53

AUD/USD - ranging around 200-day SMA waiting for the direction of the trend (based on the article)

Daily price was on breakout with the bullish reversal: price broke 200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bullish area of the chart, and it was bounced from 0.7608 resistance level to below for the ranging condition to be started with the waiting for the direction of the trend.


  • "The Australian Dollarhas broken through the floor of the rising trend guiding prices higher since the beginning of the year, hinting that the long-term down trend is resuming. The breakdown occurred against a backdrop of negative RSI divergence, bolstering the case for a topping scenario."
  • "Initial support is in the 0.7463-98 area (horizontal pivot, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7373. Alternatively, a reversal above the January 24 high at 0.7609 sees the next major upside barrier at 0.7760, a double top."
  • "Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, an entry order to sell the pair at 0.7572 has been established. If activated the trade will initially target 0.7498 and carry a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 0.7609."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.02 08:19

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 53 pips range price movement

2017-02-02 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 2.04B
  • forecast data is 2.00B
  • actual data is 3.51B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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From official report:

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,193m in December 2016, an increase of $916m (72%) on the surplus in November 2016."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,511m in December 2016, an increase of $1,471m (72%) on the surplus in November 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 53 pips range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.06 07:46

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 17 pips range price movement

2017-02-06 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report:

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.3% in December 2016. This follows a rise of 0.3% in November 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in October 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate fell 0.1% in December 2016. This follows a rise of 0.1% in November 2016 and a rise of 0.4% in October 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.07 06:30

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and 36 pips range price movement

2017-02-07 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From official report:

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
  • "Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy in 2016, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: 36 pips range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.08 08:17

Technical Intra-Day Targets for AUD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

AUD/USD: bullish to be resumed

H4 price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart: the price broke symmetric triangle pattern to above with 0.7680 resistance level to be broken for the bullish trend to be resumed. By the way, UOB is evaluating the trend for this pair as a bullish with 0.7700 key resistance level:

"AUD desperately need to ‘punch above’ the major 0.7700 resistance or the risk of short-term top would increase rapidly. In other words, the bullish phase that started last Friday may come to a premature end unless there is a move above 0.7700 within these 1 to 2 days. Alternatively, a break below 0.7595 would also indicate that a short-term top is in place."

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing in the near future.  

  • If the price will break 0.7680 resistance level on close H4 bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 0.7695 target to re-enter.
  • If price will break 0.7605 support on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
0.76800.7605
0.7700N/A
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 0.7605 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 0.7680 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.09 11:26

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Gov Lowe Speech and 36 pips range price movement

2017-02-09 09:00 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks]

[AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks] = Speech at the A50 Australian Economic Forum Dinner, in Sydney.

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From official report:

  • "I would like now to turn to the near-term outlook for the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank will be releasing updated detailed forecasts tomorrow in our quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. or 2017 and 2018, these forecasts will show little change from our earlier forecasts. Over the next couple of years we expect GDP growth to be around the 3 per cent mark. In both years it will be boosted by a significant pick-up in LNG production. And the headwinds that we have been experiencing from the unwinding of the biggest mining investment boom in a century will blow themselves out. Indeed, we are already around 90 per cent of the way through the fall from the peak to expected trough in mining investment. Another headwind we have had over recent years – that is the decline in our terms of trade – has already stopped. Since earlier last year, a rise in global commodity prices has provided a boost to our national income. And the improvement in the global economy since late last year should also help us."
  • "Inflation remains low, running at around 1½ per cent in both headline and underlying terms. Importantly, inflation is not expected to fall further. Instead, our central forecast is for underlying inflation to gradually rise over the next couple of years, and for headline inflation to increase a bit more quickly, boosted by increases in oil and tobacco prices."
  • "In summary then, the Bank's central scenario is for some pick-up in economic growth and for inflation to move gradually higher. As always, though, there are risks around that outlook. As our record demonstrates, our economy does have a degree of resilience and flexibility that has allowed us to maintain stability during a pretty difficult time in the global economy. There is no reason that this can't continue. But we do need to continue to build that resilience, while we take advantage of the considerable advantages that we have as a nation."

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AUD/USD M5: 36 pips range price movement by RBA Gov Lowe Speech news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.16 08:23

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 22 pips range price movement

2017-02-16 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 16.3K
  • forecast data is 9.7K
  • actual data is 13.5K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report:

  • "Employment increased 13,500 to 11,998,200. Full-time employment decreased 44,800 to 8,125,700 and part-time employment increased 58,300 to 3,872,500."
  • "Unemployment decreased 19,300 to 720,200. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 16,000 to 511,000 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 3,300 to 209,200."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 22 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.17 12:26

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 0.7731 resistance level to below for the bullish ranging to be started within narrow s/r levels.

If the price breaks 0.7503 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the rice movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 0.7731 resistance level to above on daily bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels. 


  • "The Australian Dollar vaulted to a three-month high after a languishing in a choppy range the against its US counterpartfor nearly two weeks. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum and hints a turn downward may be brewing ahead."
  • "A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7685 opens the door for a retest of the February 7 low at 0.7606. Alternatively, a push above the 0.7733-60 area (23.6% Fib, double top) sees the next upside barrier at 0.7811, the 38.2% expansion."


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