Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for Brent Crude Oil - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.21 17:09

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Brent Crude Oil (based on the article)


Brent Crude Oil - "From a longer-term fundamental perspective, there is a traditional focus on commodities as an inflation hedge, which has become an important topic in recent months. We have seen a 97.5% rise in a key inflation benchmark, the US Treasury 10-year yield from Summer 2016 after the last panic purchase of Treasuries on Brexit-Fear played out. The recent move has acted in a similar fashion as the “taper tantrum” of 2012/13 that saw a rise of 163bps or 116.5% in the 10yr that aligned with Oil rising from the upper-$70 region to above $110 in late August 2013. Both yields and Oil peaked within a week of each other before a consolidation and an eventual breakdown. Therefore, for the Bullish Oil trade to work out, we would likely need a moderately weaker Dollar aided by higher inflation expectations, which can be viewed directly from the bond market."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.25 16:44

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging breakout; daily ranging within bullish continuation resistance and bearish reversal support

2017-01-25 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging breakout. The price was bounced from 54.73 support level for crossing 200 SMA to above for the reversal from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition. Price was stopped by 55.62 resistance level on the way to the bullish trend to be continuing, and if the price beraks this level on close bar so the bullish breakout will be resumed, otherwise - ranging.


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Crude Oil Daily: daily ranging within bullish continuation resistance and bearish reversal support. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud with the ranging within 57.23 resistance level and 53.56 support level. descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the correction to be started, and Absolute Strength indicatior is forecasting the future possible price movement ans the correction to bearish reversal for example.


If daily price breaks 57.23 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.56 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.29 08:11

Markets To Watch In The Week Ahead: Brent Crude Oil (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging market condition within 53.85/57.19 levels with the symmetric pattern to be formed by the price to be crossed for direction. If the price breaks 57.19 resistance level to above so the 58.47 resistance will be the nearest target to re-enter.


  • "The March crude oil contract was a bit lower last week as the range was tighter than the previous two weeks. There is still key resistance in the $56 area, line a, and a move above this level would really get the market's attention. Prices are still holding above the 20-week EMA at $51.66."
  • "There is long-term support in the $45 area, line b. The weekly OBV is still above its WMA and is in a long term uptrend. The HPI made a new high in late 2016 but has dropped slightly below its WMA. It is still above the key support at line d."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.01 13:39

WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil: an update on support levels for short position (based on the article)

WTI crude oil is testing 54/55 resistance area to above to be turned to the ranging market condition to be located within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area. The key support level is already formed by the price at 39.17 to be crossed for the weekly bearish trend to be resumed.


"The long-term chart of WTI crude oil shows how the 2016 bounce occurred off of the important $30 – $40 per barrel support zone, which is where the 2008 – 2009 crude oil bear market bottomed out as well. The fact that the “smart money” has shorted this bounce like crazy increases the chances that it’s a “dead-cat bounce” that leads to another correction. If the latter event occurs, I want to see how WTI crude oil acts at this support zone – if it breaks below, that would be a sign of even further weakness."

"Brent crude oil has a similar $30 – $40 per barrel support zone that is worth watching" :


"Even though OPEC recently agreed to cut production, the “smart money” (the actual producers and end-users of crude oil) doesn’t seem to be buying it – or at least its impact on the total world crude oil supply. They may also be hedging against a ramp-up of U.S. oil production, which is one of President Trump’s main goals for the next four years. For now, traders should continue to monitor the “smart money’s” crude oil short position, how WTI and Brent crude oil act at their $30 – $40 support zones, and if the U.S. Dollar Index is able to regain its 100 resistance level or if it corrects even further."


 

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging bearish, daily ranging bullish

2017-02-01 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.5 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish reversal. The price was bounced from 200 SMA to above for the ranging bullish breakout.

If the price breaks 56.68 resistance level so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 55.74 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging. The price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the charts: 58.47 resistance level is the key for the bullish trend to be resumed. Alternative, 53.01 support level is for the correction to be started if broken.


If daily price breaks 58.47 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.01 support level to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.08 09:57

Brent Crude Oil: 53.56 level for the correction to be continuing; 50.63 level for the bearish reversal to be started (adapted from the article)


  • "Crude Oil has become the poster-child for low volatility. As we head into the second week of trading in February, we have yet to break out of the macro opening range set in the first two weeks of January. The macro opening range high on January 03 is $55.21/bbl and the macro opening range low on January 11 is $50.75/bbl."
  • "Given the extreme positioning divergence between speculators and hedgers, it is worth waiting to see which level, support or resistance will break. Should either level give way, and one side of the market fail to hold their position and reverse, we could see a strong follow through. In addition to the extreme positioning as displayed on the chart below, the Oil market is sitting at extremely low volatility right now, and the price is above long-term support near $50/52 per barrel."

Daily price is located above Senkou Spam line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the daily chart. The price is started with the secondary correction in the beginning of this month with the support level at 54.59 to be broken to below for the nearest re-enter target at 53.56.

If the price breaks the next target at 50.63 to below so the daily bearish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 57.42 resistance level to above on daily close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.08 17:52

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging to the bullish reversal, daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels

2017-02-08 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 13.8 million barrels from the previous week."

 ==========

Crude Oil M5: ranging to bullish reversal. The price was bounced from 54.47 support level to above crossing 200 SMA level for the bullish reversal with 55.56/55.66 resistance level.

If the price breaks 55.56 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed with 55.66 target to re-enter.
If the price breaks 54.47 support so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging within last monthly bar. The price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the charts: 57.42/58.35 resistance levels are the key ones for the bullish trend to be resumed.


If daily price breaks 57.42 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 58.35 nearest bullish target.
If the price breaks 50.63 support level to below so the bearish reversal of the daily price movement will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.12 09:19

Markets To Watch In The Week Ahead (based on the article)


"The April crude oil contract rallied sharply from Wednesday's low at $51.86 on news that the OPEC measures to reduce production are actually working. Crude sill closed the week a bit lower so this week's close will be important."


"The Comex gold futures have rallied $100 from the mid December lows and have retraced 50% of the decline from the July highs.  The former support, line a, is now important resistance. It is in the 1284 area along with the weekly starc+ band and the 61.8% resistance level."


  • "The weekly Nasdaq 100 A/D line broke out to the upside in early January (see arrow) and has since accelerated to the upside in impressive fashion. The A/D line is well above its rising WMA as is the daily A/D line which has also made new highs."
  • "The strong close last week favors more gains this month. The completion of the daily flag formation in the S&P futures has upside targets at 2330 and then 2340.  The recent buying in the small cap stocks indicates that they could start leading on the upside."
  • "I do expect to see a 5% or more correction sometime this spring but is may have to wait until April as some investors try to get a jump on the sell in May phenomenon. There should be plenty of warning before such a correction. There are still some sector ETFs that look attractive for new buying."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.18 17:34

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Brent Crude Oil (based on the article)


Brent Crude Oil - "We’ve recently heard figures as high as 92% about how much has been cutrelative to the promised amount. A significant factor to keep an eye on with Oil is not just the lack of price action since January, but rather the rising trend in other commodities like industrial metals. Headlines from Reuter’s this week helped further support Oil on reports that OPEC could extend or deepen supply cut at May meeting if oil stocks are still too high. Naturally, there tends to be a positive correlation to energy products like Oil and industrial metals. In the last week, the famous Dr. Copper (a term coined by the view the Copper holds predictive value in explaining global market demand,) recently surpassed the November peak."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.22 07:46

Crude Oil Price Forecast: ranging within narrow 57.42/53.56 levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located on the bullish area of the chart to be above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal: the price is on ranging within narrow 57.42/53.56 support/resistance levels for the 57.42 level to be testing to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Price consolidations that are visualized as a sideways move are very boring to watch, but their bias is rather clear. Consolidation tends to favor continuation of the prior trend. Since Mid-August, the price of Crude Oil has march confidently higher alongside many other commodities and commodity currencies. While Crude Oil has lagged many of its commodity brethren, there does appear to be a unified march higher in the commodity field that could continue if the anticipation of inflation persists."
  • "On the fundamental front, we got word that OPEC is looking to step up its compliance with the late-November supply cut accord. Recent numbers we’ve seen were regarding compliance to the agreed-upon cuts were as high as 92%, but recent comments from OPEC were revealed to seek 100% compliance, which would further drop the international supply of Oil, which could continue to favor further upside."


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