Forecast and levels for Nikkei - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 12:12

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Nikkei (based on the article)


Nikkei - "Last week, the Bank of Japan met and did as expected – nothing. As a result, we saw no volatility out of the Japanese benchmark. Looking ahead to next week the only ‘high’ impact data event on the radar is CPI on Thursday. Keep an eye on U.S. markets and how they react to the FOMC on Wednesday."


 

Market suggests to buy NIKKEI in mid-term (a couple of days).

Nikkei in condition to buy

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.31 18:12

Nikkei 225 - narrow ranging within the bullish waiting for the direction (based on the article)

The price on weekly chart is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for the narrow ranging within the 20,315 resistance for the bullish trend to be resumed and 18.190 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "The Nikkei 225 (19,959.84 on July 28) remains shy of its June 24, 2015 multiyear intraday high of 20,952.71. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought with the five-week modified moving average of 19,946.70. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading is just above the overbought threshold of 80.00 at 81.75. If this week’s close is below 19,946.70, the weekly chart will be downgraded to negative. Buy weakness to my quarterly value level of 16,052.44. My annual pivot of 20,169.42 will remain a drag or magnet for the remainder of 2017. Reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual risky levels of 21,619.72."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.10 14:28

Stock Market - The Week Ahead (based on the article)

Nikkei 225 Index on daily chart is on bearish ranging below Ichimoku cloud: the price is testing 19,225 support level to below for the bearish trend to be resumed with 19.140 nearest daily bearish target to re-enter.


  • "The Nasdaq Composite and small cap Russell 2000 were hit the hardest last week as both were down 1% while the S&P 500 lost 0.60%. The Dow Transports and Dow Utilities bucked the trend as they gained 0.30% and 0.80% respectively. The NYSE Advance/declines were negative with 1227 stocks advancing and 1939 declining."
  • "The stock market’s intermediate term trend remains positive as the weekly NYSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Industrials A/D lines all made new highs a week ago. The weekly chart of the market leading PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) shows that it traded in a narrow range last week as it is holding well above the 20 week EMA at $139.92. For the week we get the PPI and CPI data on Wednesday and Thursday. The Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Industrial Production, Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment all will be released on Friday."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.14 10:15

Nikkei 225 Index - weekly bullish ranging within 20,315/19,140 (based on the article)

Nikkei 225 Index on weekly chart is above Ichimoku cloud in primary bullish trend for the ranging within 20,315 'bullish continuation' resistance level and 19,140 'correctional' support level.


  • "The Nikkei 225 bounced at the bottom of its trading range last week only to blow clean through the top of it on Wednesday in an impressive, three-day bull run."
  • "However, while price action has clearly validated the bottom of the range, it has yet to finally dispose of the top. Punchy though this week’s action has been – and part of a global rise in risk appetite – the Nikkei now looks somewhat short of breath on its daily chart."
  • "For sure, Tuesday’s peak of 19,871 will constitute a higher high than the two previous peaks – 19,672 on August 31 and 19,834 on August 15 – if it’s confirmed. However, it will still be a lower high than August 7’s 20,000-and-change. It will also constitute another failure to breach the downtrend line in place from 2017’s high."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.18 16:41

Nikkei 225 - All-Time Intraday Highs (based on the article)

H4 price is on bullish breakout by breaking Ichimoku cloud to above. The price is crossing 20,090 resistance level for the bullish breakout to be continuing.


  • "The Nikkei 225 (19,909.50 on Sept. 15) has a positive weekly chart with the average above its five-week modified moving average of 19,695.55. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 30.40 last week, up from 27.57 on Sept. 8."
  • "Investment Strategy: Buy weakness to my quarterly value level of 16,052.44. My monthly pivot is 19,811.85. Reduce holdings on strength to my annual pivot of 20,169.42 and to my semiannual risky level of 21,619.72."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.05 10:47

Nikkei 225 - daily bullish breakout; 20,683 is the key with 20,760 target to re-enter (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart broke Senkou Span lines (which is the virtual border between the rimary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) to above for the bullish reversal. Price is testing ascending triangle pattern together with 20,683 to abbove for the bullish breakout to be continuing with 20,760 resistance level as a nearest bullish target to re-enter.


  • "The Nikkei 225 is perhaps the Asia/Pacific index most inclined to reflect the exhuberance of Wall Street where record highs for Dow, S&P, Nasdaq or all of them at once are now so common as to be barely worthy of remark.
  • "The Japanese benchmark is nowhere near its own record peak. That was hit way back in 1989. However, the index has scaled two year tops this week, boosted by US vigor and the prognosis that the Japanese Yen should weaken in the quarter ahead. This prospect always suits Japan’s plentiful export titans whose goods stand to look more attractibe to US consumers."
  • "So there are the fundamentals. But how safe is the Nikkei looking at these heights, technically speaking?"
  • "Well, the moving averages at least paint a rather positive picture. The Nikkei is above its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages and the 20-day has crossed above both its longer-term counterparts since mid-September. This is usually seen as a pretty bullish sign."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.09 08:09

Nikkei 225 - long-term bullish trend since the beginning of September this year (based on the article)

Intra-day H4 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing the resistance level at 2,342 to above for the bullish trenbd to be continuing.


  • "The Nikkei 225 has powered up to 26-year highs this week and this is only the latest chapter of an astonishing run higher which began in early September."
  • "Fundamentally the Tokyo equity benchmark’s vigour is partly explained by the return of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in October’s snap election. A better-than-expected second-quarter earnings season has also helped. Around 62% of listed companies managing to beat estimates, with heavyweights like Sony, Honda and Toyota all pleasing the crowds. Wall Street’s succession of highs and a rising US Dollar have done the rest, taking the index up by more than 20% for the year so far. "
  • "Despite such chunky gains the index appears to be retaining its vigour. Indeed, Thursday’s trade could see it break the uptrend channel which has contained the climb since September the 8- to the upside."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.16 08:16

Nikkei 225 - daily correction within the primary bullish trend (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from 23,426 resistance level to below for the secondary correction within the priumary bullish trend to be started. If the price breaks 21,281 support level to below on close daily bar so the bearish reversal will be started on the secondary ranging way, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "The breakneck climb from early September saw the Tokyo stock benchmark rise to highs not seen for more than 25 years. Recent peaks had been unmatched since the dawning days of January 1992, and they came backed up by gains for other global bourses. However of course they also saw the index become grievously overbought. A 4000-point climb in a little over two months will have that effect."
  • "Now the index has begun to retrace and that might be no bad thing. So far at least market action suggests a reasonable pause to re-group rather than a sudden outpouring of regret at all this autumn bullishness. Wednesday’s intraday low is the nadir of the pullback so far. It came in at 21,818 – exactly at the second, 38.2% retracement of the rise up from September 8’s lows."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

Trading the Nikkei

The Nikkei 225 was first recorded in 1950 and remains one of the most widely quoted Japanese stock indices. As of June 2011, the Tokyo Stock Exchange's (TSE) listings had an overall valuation of $3.7 trillion, trailing only the London Stock Exchange, NASDAQ OMX and NYSE Euronext platforms at $3.8 trillion, $4.1 trillion and $13.8 trillion respectively. 


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