AUDUSD Technical Analysis 15.12 - 22.12: Possible Ranging - page 2

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newdigital, 2013.12.18 16:53

Key Levels to Watch Ahead of the FOMC

  • XAU/USD has traded in a sideways to higher range since finding support near the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low earlier in the month
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the metal while below last week’s high near 1268
  • The low close of the month at 1219 is an important pivot with weakness below on a closing basis needed to singal a downside resumption
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is seen around the latter part of next week
  • Traction over 1268 is needed to turn us positive on Gold

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AUD/USD recorded a new low close for the year on Tuesday (by 1/10th of a pip on the FXCM platform). The decline to this point has been impressive with the exchange rate losing more than 8 big figures since its failure at the 200-day moving average back in October. However, the decline is now more than 40 trading days old. One of our favorite trend cycle lengths is around 45 days as this marks a Gann Commodity “Death cycle” where short-term reversals are more frequent. Interestingly this day count will roughly coincide with the Winter Solstice (in the Northern Hemisphere) this weekend which is another potentially important inflection point in Gann theory. It is also worth pointing out that the last few weeks of December are one of the stronger periods of the year for the exchange rate on a seasonal basis. Factors certainly seem to be aligning for at least a short-term reversal in the Aussie over the next week. Tempting as it might be to try to catch the bottom tick, we prefer to wait for strength that confirms our notion before positioning. Any continued weakness into the latter part of next week will negate the potential positive cyclicality.


 
i think within 2 months its going to  0.8500
 
mitulbang:
i think within 2 months its going to  0.8500
Really...with which probability ?
 

At first - the price should break 0.8847 on MN1 close bar, after that - 0.8544. But price is inside Ichimoku cloud on MN chart so it may be anything.

Based on D1 timeframe : I want to remind that the correction within bullish trend was started in 23rd of October, primary bearish was slowly started in 12th of November this year, and finally bearish since 20 of November.
Since 05 of September this year till 12th of November this year - bullish.

On MN timeframe - price is on ranging bearish just since July this year, and it was bullish since August 2010 till July 2013.

Thus, if we are talking about MN timeframe - it is mostly bullish



 

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newdigital, 2013.12.19 09:18

2013-12-18 19:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

==========

Fed Tapers Bond-Buying But Vows Low Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday tapered its massive bond-buying program by $10 billion to $75 billion per month, citing recent improvement in the U.S. jobs market.

Beginning in January, the Fed will buy mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month.

"In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases," the Fed said in a statement accompanying today's decision.


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.12.19

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD M5 : 81 pips down and 84 pips up by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2013.12.19, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


 

Week 51 8H chart update: Market still Bearish. Prices oversold but my trailing system has closed the short position. 

aud 

 

This is Friday today (end of trading week) so we can say something about this pair

D1 timeframe - flat. This is flat for 2 days - 2 bars : yesterday's close bar and today's open bar.


 

H4 timeframe - flat since yesterday till now (from 19th of December 2013, 00:00 MQ time to now) :



 

If we will speak about forecasting using Interpolation indicator from MT5 CodeBase :

- H4 timeframe - oversold and we may expect upward soon



D1 timeframe - oversold (by Stochastic) but Interpolation indicator is showing downtrend in the near future anyway :



 

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newdigital, 2013.12.20 17:24

  • AUD/USD fell to its lowest level in over three years on Thursday
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below .8960
  • A Gann level related to the year’s high at .8800 is key support with a daily close below needed to prolong the decline
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • Traction over .8960 will turn us positive on the Aussie

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