Your opinion please
I would like to know what you mean about this "strategy".
Well yes it is, but price will have to do higher high and lower low many times (picture). I can't find such example in the past.
No, thats not true. Price does not have to go higher or lower many times.
USDJPY Oct 1997 148.00 -68,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USDJPY Dec 2001 135.00 -55,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USDJPY June 2006 123.00 -47,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USDJPY Jan 2010 .9500 -19,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USDJPY April 2011 .8500 -9,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD May 1984 0.8400, -46,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD May 1985 0.5700, -73,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD April 2008 1.4700 -15,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD Jan 2008 1.5100 -19,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD Jan 2009 1.6000 -28,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USD/CAD Nov 2009, 130.00 -13,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD April 2009 1.5100 -19,000, times it has crossed back 0.
Time it took to type this post 30 seconds.
Time it took to research these examples 2 minutes.
Cost of a stoploss "PRICELESS"!
No, thats not true. Price does not have to go higher or lower many times.
USDJPY Oct 1997 148.00 -68,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USDJPY Dec 2001 135.00 -55,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USDJPY June 2006 123.00 -47,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USDJPY Jan 2010 .9500 -19,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USDJPY April 2011 .8500 -9,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD May 1984 0.8400, -46,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD May 1985 0.5700, -73,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD April 2008 1.4700 -15,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD Jan 2008 1.5100 -19,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD Jan 2009 1.6000 -28,000, times it has crossed back 0.
USD/CAD Nov 2009, 130.00 -13,000, times it has crossed back 0.
EURUSD April 2009 1.5100 -19,000, times it has crossed back 0.
Time it took to type this post 30 seconds.
Time it took to research these examples 2 minutes.
Cost of a stoploss "PRICELESS"!
I really don't understand what are you trying to say with this post. Can you explain please?
I agree that danjp's answer doesn't exactly fit your strategy. The point is that the martingale doubling gets large very fast and one unfortunate event will take out the account. Of course you will be having a great time making 100% profit trades until that point. It should not be difficult to code that strategy and see how many times it would crash your account. Interestingly account size doesn't have that much to do with it since the x2 lot size grows so fast. The question you have to ask is how many times can the lotsize double before your account is gone. Nobody here will be able to convince you that this is a risky approach (=total certainty of failure over time).
I can't remember what book on gambling I was reading but the reported conversation with a roulette pit boss said something like 20 reds in a row was not uncommon in his experience, and that would kill any martingale gamblers on the table.
Try coding it. That is the best way to historically test the idea. And that will be the most convincing way to explain it to you.
I really don't understand what are you trying to say with this post. Can you explain please?
You said, " but price will have to do higher high and lower low many times (picture). I can't find such example in the past"
The above is not true. I gave you multiple examples of times that price has not gone higher or lower many times or even once. I'm not sure why you can't find any examples of this. It's not a rare event. In everyone of the examples the price has not returned to that price. The - number is how many pips the price is from that day to todays price. Using your stratagy you would have margin called everyone of your accounts. I only looked for a few minutes for those examples. There are many more for 1000+ points just this year alone. If you were on the opposite side of the trade, which you will most likey be because every on of those trade were tranding in that opposite direction. I'm just giving you some frienldy advice. You are also planning on hedging? Then you are not a US citizen I assume. This is an easy stratagy to code and test. Test this for 2 years worth of data in ST and see how profitable it really is. Many people have tried this in the past it's nothing new. Maybe you have some new twist to it, if you trade without a stop loss you are just asking for trouble. The direction of price always matters if it is going the opposite direction of you trade, especially if you are averaging down.
I'm not tyring to be a smart#$%. You asked what we thought about your stratagy. I'm trying to show you that what you think about how the market works might not be 100% correct. I don't think you will get many positive answers to you original post. Please, test this in the strategy testing for a good period of time, at least two years, and a demo account on real data before you use any real money.
Also overlooked is the margin level - should the number of trades you have to make alow the margin level to reach the brokers 'close all trades' value (100% typically) the loss can be devistating (I write from experience)
You only need to look at the EUR/USD and how quickly it fell from 1.41 to 1.26 really big drops of 200 (four decimal place) pips in an hour. The market can also counter trend ( just go up and down for ages making your position worse and worse)
You have to be sure that the bank, margin, and patience can support your system.
You said, " but price will have to do higher high and lower low many times (picture). I can't find such example in the past"
The above is not true. I gave you multiple examples of times that price has not gone higher or lower many times or even once. I'm not sure why you can't find any examples of this. It's not a rare event. In everyone of the examples the price has not returned to that price. The - number is how many pips the price is from that day to todays price. Using your stratagy you would have margin called everyone of your accounts. I only looked for a few minutes for those examples. There are many more for 1000+ points just this year alone. If you were on the opposite side of the trade, which you will most likey be because every on of those trade were tranding in that opposite direction. I'm just giving you some frienldy advice. You are also planning on hedging? Then you are not a US citizen I assume. This is an easy stratagy to code and test. Test this for 2 years worth of data in ST and see how profitable it really is. Many people have tried this in the past it's nothing new. Maybe you have some new twist to it, if you trade without a stop loss you are just asking for trouble. The direction of price always matters if it is going the opposite direction of you trade, especially if you are averaging down.
I'm not tyring to be a smart#$%. You asked what we thought about your stratagy. I'm trying to show you that what you think about how the market works might not be 100% correct. I don't think you will get many positive answers to you original post. Please, test this in the strategy testing for a good period of time, at least two years, and a demo account on real data before you use any real money.
Many thanks for you comments and opinions now I know what other people think about this.
Yes, it is about hedging, so if price doesn't go back to where I buy it is not problem because I open bigger lots sell and make some profit.
I'm not talking about strategy in this attached link. It is different and price ranging is not problem.
http://www.forex-central.net/AWESOME-Forex-Trading-Strategy-%28never-lose-again%29.pdf
Hm well i cannot agree totaly with ubzen and danjp here because of a few things,
I would not agree that < happen that often. >, /, \ and = happen more often ;) Of course in a range you will not make any profit but if you implement the strategy as pointed out above you will also not add lots inside the range. You need to be prepared to win little, risk much and to have positions open for a very long time. Also remember that huge gaps are definatly a strategy killer.
Of course we all agree that mister martin will sooner or later kill you account, but lets be honest, how many of us did not kill an account? If you trade carefull and withdraw your winnings you have a chance that you have withdrawn the initial deposit before the crash happen. This all implys that you do not try to get rich quickly, have money that you can affort to loose on the first day. (When mighty martin hits you, it hits fast)
Unfortunately the human brain is not designed to imagine exponential functions. Take a look at the screenshot below. Depending on your exit condition you would be able to exit at the X sign, but probably not. This range does not look like a <, i have used a gridsize of 20pips in this example,
If you start the system with 0.1 lot, the last trade was already 25.6 lots, and in total you have open position for 51.1lot. That is an insane amount regarding that you started with 0.1
Of course the whole thing changes when you select a different startpoint, all i wanted to do is to show you some worser case.
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Hello!
I would like to know what you think about this "strategy".
We open trade (buy or sell it is not important) without TP and SL. Then if we get to profit we previous chose we close order if it gets to loss we previous chose we open opposite trade with bigger lots. Then if second and first trade get to profit we previous chose we close orders if second gets to loss we previous chose we open third trade with bigger lots opposite to second,... and so on.
What I'm thinking about is that price will sooner or later goes in some direction.
Thanks for your comment and have a look at picture for more information
!