Does anyone have an EA that produces CONSISTENT profits? - page 2
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> manual trading ideas I have tested on live accounts and know them to work either ok, med or good enough for me to be satisfied
That's the place to start - then code can begin
-BB-
Now I'm creeped out. It almost sounds like you read the message I DIDN'T send... I was going to talk about an idea I had for an EA that would use a comparison of several charts to figure out what would be an ideal long-term position based on the premise of comparing gold prices to silver prices in a specific currency.
Basically, it would allow a speculator to trade XAUXAG somewhat indirectly.
Don't worry, I'm not a mind reader . . . what I meant was that I'm not looking for 3% from one pair, 0.6% per pair from 5 pairs would be OK too ;-)
Here's the logic behind the premise I explained there... feel free to steal it but if you do, I'd like a copy. I'm working on this one myself too.
I use CAD as a base for comparison because I happen to use that currency when I go to the grocery store. You can use any currency.
XAUXAG Trading
Use any viable analysis method to determine the trend direction of both XAUCAD and XAGCAD.
IF
XAUCAD is up and XAGCAD is down then XAUXAG is up -> Buy XAUCAD
XAUCAD is down and XAGCAD is up then XAUXAG is down -> Buy XAGCAD
XAUCAD and XAGCAD are both up
If XAGCAD is faster than XAUCAD then XAUXAG is down -> Buy XAGCAD
If XAUCAD is faster than XAGCAD then XAUXAG is up -> Buy XAUCAD
XAUCAD and XAGCAD are both down
If XAGCAD is faster than XAUCAD then XAUXAG is up but the price is falling -> Sell XAGCAD
If XAUCAD is faster than XAGCAD then XAUXAG is down but the price is falling -> Sell XAUCAD
Liquidations would either happen manually when the program is shut down by the user or when the status quo changes between gold and silver and the currency in use for comparison.
This method is designed to directly control more and more bullion all the time, which directly implies that it increases your cash.
Seriously, in all charts.
Is there actually a mathematical strategy that works?
It seems to me that if someone produced a program that made windfall profits - or even just tiny steady profits all the time, it would be all over the news.
I see the movements and the pivot points. I always feel like I'm this -> <- close to finding a method that works only to find out a few moments later why it won't.
Please tell me - has ANYONE EVER made a successful EA?
Not me, Ive been working solidly on this for two years Ive tried so many different combinations of criteria I couldnt begin to count I continue to try but really if I were to do some soul searching and be entirely honest with myself I would have to admit, I now believe something I read on a different forum when I first started on this.
Someone posted that forex is a zero sum game, there is no difference between anything in the price action preceeding a price fall, to that preceeding a price rise, it is entirely random and the same exact setup preceeding a fall can be seen preceeding a rise and after testing hundreds of different EA's and indicators I have created, none of which can make any kind of consistant profit I have to now agree with that guy.
I now think if an EA appears to make a profit it is a fact of probabilities, the same probabilities that can give more heads than tails for a period when tossing a coin but eventually the statistical truth will reveal itself. I think Forex is the same thing, except you are more likely to find profit in tossing a coin because Forex is worse than 50/50 due to the spread.
I would hope to one day prove myself wrong on all that but I am having considerable doubts so if you are asking this question because you are considering embarking on this same quest, my advice is, do yourself a favour, forget about it before you do like me and waste 2 years of your life and endless late night hours coding trading programs all for nothing.
@SDC. Yep, totally agree. When I toke up Card-Counting, I read a good book, the author provided a System and some fancy Mathematics why it works. I downloaded a Blackjack simulator, the program simulated billion of hands based on the settings I choose. It comes back and confirms the author's claims on System Expectation, Standard Deviation, Edge etc. Also, after you think about it for a while it makes common sense why Card-Counting would work. I mean Ace+10 (Blackjack) pays 3-to-2. Therefore it theres allot of Aces and T's in the deck, if the Dealer gets 5{Blackjacks} and I get 5{Blackjacks} I'll come out ahead because he pays me 1.5{when i win} and only takes 1{when I lose}.
No trading Book I've ever seen provides a System followed by Mathematical Proof why it'll work. They'll explain Trends, Support/Resistance, Indicators etc. But never any Simulator with results or even Live trading account results. I read an article from a Manager of Money Managers. He recommended Hedge-Funds and Other MM to Millionaire/Billionaire Clients. And what he had to say is that the successful managers compared to those who failed does not exceed that of simple chance.
Trading like any form of Gambling is deceptively simple. You bet if the price is going Up or Down simple as that. I compare it to Roulette where you can bet on Black(Long) or Red(Short) but in the long run, you always pay the Spreads(Green). Upon that note, I believe what it takes to Win in Forex is similar to the only method I've heard of in Beating Roulette. No, not Martingale your self to death. Rather some Physicists in the 60s, 70s started looking for Bias Wheels (Wheels which were off balanced). They spent hours looking and calculating the orbit of the ball trying to figure out if it had a center of gravity (something like that). Once they had enough data. One person would stand at a distance and calculate the speed upon which the ball was traveling, hence predicting the sector or number it would land on. Was that an exact science without risk or a sure thing, of course not but at least it generated an Edge for em. So in the long run these guys would probably come out ahead. But of course the casinos caught on.
Finding a Bias Wheel in Forex is probably the only way to gain a Mathematical Edge. At one point when forex was new, I believe some people got rich profiting form mis-pricing Arbitrage or Triangular Arbitrage. But I think most of those loop hole have closed and those who the broker suspects is making profits using similar methods today gets kick out of the joint. Anyways going back to finding a Bias Wheel, this is where I believe there might be some light at the end of the tunnel. Tho I believe forex is Random 99% of the time and thus 99% of forex traders don't profit; I also believe there's a 1% time when its Biased. Do we have to analyze the markets like Physicists analyzing bias wheels on Roulette? Thats is the question. I don't think allot of people can go the distance if thats the case.
Currently, I try to focus on systems which take advantage of Random movements. Chaos Theories and Game Theories are areas where I'd like to know more about base on my current interpretation of the forex market. But that wouldn't stop me from looking for Bias Wheels wherever they may appear.
Now for those who would say that it's just simple as Trade Manually, Follow Price Action, Money Management(<2%) and Gut Feelings. You really don't sound any different then someone who stepped unto the Blackjack table or Roulette Wheel and say. "I play by Feel, if I think the next number is a twenty-one then I trade, If I'm really not feeling it, I don't take the trade, But I always make sure I don't bet more than 2% of my equity". Please, what's your edge? I dunno. Do you have your system written down? Ah why!.... Yall see where I'm going with this, now if you're winning then good for you, but don't think its due to the fact that you're some Super trader.
Not me, Ive been working solidly on this for two years Ive tried so many different combinations of criteria I couldnt begin to count I continue to try but really if I were to do some soul searching and be entirely honest with myself I would have to admit, I now believe something I read on a different forum when I first started on this.
Someone posted that forex is a zero sum game, there is no difference between anything in the price action preceeding a price fall, to that preceeding a price rise, it is entirely random and the same exact setup preceeding a fall can be seen preceeding a rise and after testing hundreds of different EA's and indicators I have created, none of which can make any kind of consistant profit I have to now agree with that guy.
I now think if an EA appears to make a profit it is a fact of probabilities, the same probabilities that can give more heads than tails for a period when tossing a coin but eventually the statistical truth will reveal itself. I think Forex is the same thing, except you are more likely to find profit in tossing a coin because in forex it is worse than 50/50 because there is a spread.
I would hope to one day prove myself wrong on that but I am having considerable doubts so if you are asking this question because you are considering embarking on this same quest, my advice is, do yourself a favour, forget about it before you do like me and waste 2 years of your life and endless late night hours working on coding programs all for nothing.
Its all about choice and of your beliefs and perhaps nothing more than a zealous ego with some dazzling new technology?
If one choose to submit "2 years of your life and endless late night hours working on coding programs", but ends up with no concrete results, then one always have the other choice to be one good, rich and healthier- manual trader. 2 years ago.
Many people, given all the jazz and drums into this hype - "automated trading robots working for the rest of your life", they are bedazzled, they think this is the right thing to do, and then taken into their own foolishness, only to realise much much later, that they forget the very principles of being one, the one that makes that rich trader out of you, and not the other less-rich stubborn coder.
This business, may I call it so, is NOT about robots which complicates x years of someone's life. I doubt MetaQuotes has that on the agenda. Its about how much you can make, one day, one week, one month, at a time, ON YOUR OWN. Not even robots.
If you can do that well, then you already have that "Holy Grail". Then ONLY, The next task will be, tuning it into a mechanical one, if ever you want. & That is also a choice.
Until today, I am happy to say, Ive always believe that my manual fingers is my best Holy Grail. Why? Bec. I still feel the satisfaction even if its just 5 pips.
Sadly to see, many people have lost this instinct and human touch, in their "quest" for their own elusive machine. They think the market is some logic puzzle, instead of a "sea of teeming fishes".
Dont go into the zero sum game - or you wont get to see several people you must have heard about who trades by thousands of lots. How did they do it - most started with couple of dimes from their piggy banks, fyi.
Its all about choice and of your beliefs and perhaps nothing more than a zealous ego with some dazzling new technology?
If one choose to submit "2 years of your life and endless late night hours working on coding programs", but ends up with no concrete results, then one always have the other choice to be one good, rich and healthier- manual trader. 2 years ago.
If thats the case why is it, the so called experts on the regular forums, the ones who claim to have been at this for years always say the same things, find a strategy make your rules and stick to them. I have seen that said so many times, which is one of the reasons I started programming trading robots in the first place because isn't that exactly what a trading robot does ?
The only difference between doing that manually and creating a trading robot to do it is, manually you lose your real money while discovering that doesnt work, while trading robots can be far more easily backtested.
@ubzen I think we are both on the same page buddy, we tried everything we can think of and nothing produces consistancy so what to do next...I think the bias wheel you are looking for may be revealed by moving averages in the way no matter what time frame you work with or how many periods or which kind of exotic filter it uses, the price action will always bring the result of trading the MA crossovers, close to zero minus the spread ...
I think this has been proven many times by all of us who have created such a strategy, backtested it and found it to slowly lose all our money, then reverse the criteria and that also slowly loses all our money. I see no other conclusion to be drawn from that other than, the MA's are zero sum and the spread is the drainer. So if we accept that is true, is there a profitable way to exploit it ? In other words if we accept MA crossovers will reveal what is zero sum, is there a way to extrapolate from that, mathematically what isnt ?
If thats the case why is it, the so called experts on the regular forums, the ones who claim to have been at this for years always say the same things, find a strategy make your rules and stick to them. I have seen that said so many times, which is one of the reasons I started programming trading robots in the first place because isn't that exactly what a trading robot does ?
Because for one, there are no so called experts, and even if there are, regular forums are the most impossible places to find them. Anyone far from that naive, can tell you this.
This speaks for itself. That there isn't a win strategy in the first place, only loss ones. Then, hoping for the tester to provide one. what is the idea of having a robot then? Its like passing the gambler pass onto the robot. bugs-free.
The least to have is some breakeven strategy, which I think most actually do, and they will find the technology can help to leverage further.
I am no expert -- but I have been since MQL didn't even have a version, back more than a decade ago. And in those days, robots were the last thing on the mind. Profits were first, and then next breakout, and then the next day, same routine. Ordinary folks were profiting manually, or at least minimally.
Then they overhauled MQL 2 to make way for 3,4 and then started that championship thingy. All these changed everything. Everyone started going after nothing else but robots.
On MetaQuotes part, it's business as usual. But on your part -- what really is the business, other than discovering "waste".
This speaks for itself. That there isn't a win strategy in the first place, only loss ones. Then, hoping for the tester to provide one. what is the idea of having a robot then? Its like passing the gambler pass onto the robot. bugs-free.
On MetaQuotes part, it's business as usual. But on your part -- what really is the business, other than discovering "waste".
If one choose to submit "2 years of your life and endless late night hours working on coding programs", but ends up with no concrete results, then one always have the other choice to be one good, rich and healthier- manual trader. 2 years ago.
I was responding to the OP question which was does anyone here have an EA that produces consistant profits, I did not speak for anyone else I gave him an honest answer based on my own attempts to create such an EA.
Your comments and rhetorical questions in response to that are at best unhelpful, and for the most part, pointless.