Suggestions for EA (Loosing to Profit) - page 10
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Whats my conclusion. As a Software engineer for 12+ years, any type of testing you can do to make sure your code is solid and as bug free as you can make it is critical at all stages of the dev process.
Well I'm no software engineer. I've been learning coding and forex for about the last 18 Months. Perhaps I give too much credit to the back-tester. The angle I was going from about the results being Identical was in response to trying to Validate Backtesting by running a forward test, then running a backtest and comparing. This much I know, if Absolutely All variables within the back-tester are the same Live, there's no way the Computer is going to interpret the data differently. BarrowBoy tried to add some stuff to the list to help clarify. But this list is very, very long. The back-tester has Limitations. Not to re-peat myself again but, what I'm saying is if you gather all the Volumes, Re-Quotes, Delay, Data-Packets, Spreads, Time-Zone Changes, Scheduled Restart of your PC, ISP going down, VPS Maintenance...... Blah, Blah... from your Forward-Test and could Simulate it within the Back-tester. Then the results you get from the Back-Test should be Similar to the Forward Test you ran.
Here's what I had to say when I was few months in Link.
"For all the dis-trust about back-tester, let me close by saying "I've never created a system in back-tester which didn't perform in DEMO testing the way it did in back-testing". Ok, for one exception, the Bug. Now, I'm not Naive-enough to think that back-testing environment is the same as Live testing environment. I cannot stress this point enough, If your broker re-quotes you, fails to close your orders at stops, freezes up when volatility rises...the list goes on. So... you Optimized and Demo tested in an ideal environment but when you Live test the Pattern changes... what do I call that, A Bug. All this in my humble opinion." - Upon which Gordon had to Correct Me :)
In the above, i was Not referring to #of-Trades/Profit-Performance. Rather I was referring code logic. Example: If someone back-tests with the assumption that the spreads is fixed and then demo or live test where there's variable spreads. This same person cannot come here crying that back-testing sucks because they failed to consider the spreads. People who wanna run back-tests should understand the limitations.
Well I'm no software engineer. I've been learning coding and forex for about the last 18 Months. Perhaps I give too much credit to the back-tester. The angle I was going from about the results being Identical was in response to trying to Validate Backtesting by running a forward test, then running a backtest and comparing. This much I know, if Absolutely All variables within the back-tester are the same Live, there's no way the Computer is going to interpret the data differently. BarrowBoy tried to add some stuff to the list to help clarify. But this list is very, very long. The back-tester has Limitations. Not to re-peat myself again but, what I'm saying is if you gather all the Volumes, Re-Quotes, Delay, Data-Packets, Spreads, Time-Zone Changes, Scheduled Restart of your PC, ISP going down, VPS Maintenance...... Blah, Blah... from your Forward-Test and could Simulate it within the Back-tester. Then the results you get from the Back-Test should be Similar to the Forward Test you ran.
Here's what I had to say when I was few months in Link.
"For all the dis-trust about back-tester, let me close by saying "I've never created a system in back-tester which didn't perform in DEMO testing the way it did in back-testing". Ok, for one exception, the Bug. Now, I'm not Naive-enough to think that back-testing environment is the same as Live testing environment. I cannot stress this point enough, If your broker re-quotes you, fails to close your orders at stops, freezes up when volatility rises...the list goes on. So... you Optimized and Demo tested in an ideal environment but when you Live test the Pattern changes... what do I call that, A Bug. All this in my humble opinion." - Upon which Gordon had to Correct Me :)
In the above, i was Not referring to #of-Trades/Profit-Performance. Rather I was referring code logic. Example: If someone back-tests with the assumption that the spreads is fixed and then demo or live test where there's variable spreads. This same person cannot come here crying that back-testing sucks because they failed to consider the spreads. People who wanna run back-tests should understand the limitations.
Sorry did not want to come off as jumping down your back. I agree with everything you say. My point was, forward testing a demo and forward testing a live acct at the same time, may show significant differences (Not in logic, I hope. But you never know there as well). I know I was not expecting to have such a difference in orders and prices between the demo and the live account. In fact, after thinking about it for a few hours, I think backtesting and foward testing might even be more important then I already thought.
Sorry did not want to come off as jumping down your back. I agree with everything you say. My point was, forward testing a demo and forward testing a live acct at the same time, may show significant differences (Not in logic, I hope. But you never know there as well). I know I was not expecting to have such a difference in orders and prices between the demo and the live account. In fact, after thinking about it for a few hours, I think backtesting and foward testing might even be more important then I already thought.
Oh, its all good, I understood you were not jumping on me. I too agree with your analysis about running demo and live account simultaneously. You highlight the importance of back-testing, demo-testing, penny-Live-testing.............. all this before you commit Real-Investment-Capital to it. Where the train came off the tracks for me, was when I realized that -An exact EA running within 2 different mt4 terminals on the Same PC could have different results because of Missing Packets and/or isBusy issues... etc.
I've read somewhere that some very intelligent people within out society don't make very good traders because of their Need to be correct all the time. Given the in-exact nature of all the little things you learn everyday I have to say it's enough to make any one Plunder for hours. What is it that I'm really doing here? lol
Oh, its all good, I understood you were not jumping on me. I too agree with your analysis about running demo and live account simultaneously. You highlight the importance of back-testing, demo-testing, penny-Live-testing.............. all this before you commit Real-Investment-Capital to it. Where the train came off the tracks for me, was when I realized that -An exact EA running within 2 different mt4 terminals on the Same PC could have different results because of Missing Packets and/or isBusy issues... etc.
I've read somewhere that some very intelligent people within out society don't make very good traders because of their Need to be correct all the time. Given the in-exact nature of all the little things you learn everyday I have to say it's enough to make any one Plunder for hours. What is it that I'm really doing here? lol
At some point you just have to let it fly on it's own, in a real account. It's nice to know that it is stable and able to open close trades and do everything else I expected it to do. When I first saw that the language was small and it was pretty compact, I figured 2-3 weeks and I will have something running on a live account. 4 months later I am just now confident enough to put any real money with one. I have a whole graveyard of previous Ea's on a UBS drive. Writing lots of failures is good practice. Some fuctions in most of them have made there way into this version of my Ea. I'm sure other pieces and much of the current one will make it into my next one. Now I can pretty much spend my time on the strategy portion of the next EA.
Oh, its all good, I understood you were not jumping on me. I too agree with your analysis about running demo and live account simultaneously. You highlight the importance of back-testing, demo-testing, penny-Live-testing.............. all this before you commit Real-Investment-Capital to it. Where the train came off the tracks for me, was when I realized that -An exact EA running within 2 different mt4 terminals on the Same PC could have different results because of Missing Packets and/or isBusy issues... etc.
I've read somewhere that some very intelligent people within out society don't make very good traders because of their Need to be correct all the time. Given the in-exact nature of all the little things you learn everyday I have to say it's enough to make any one Plunder for hours. What is it that I'm really doing here? lol
Reading through these, you guys brought up a really good point: penny-testing on a live account. I will set that up either this week, or the next, to see how the EA(1:1 RR ratio) does on a real account with pennies. Will it stay even, or will it loose/win?
if Absolutely All variables within the back-tester are the same Live, there's no way the Computer is going to interpret the data differently.
Reading through these, you guys brought up a really good point: penny-testing on a live account. I will set that up either this week, or the next, to see how the EA(1:1 RR ratio) does on a real account with pennies. Will it stay even, or will it loose/win?
This is definitely something good coming out of this thread. You need to go LIVE at some point, pennies or mega-bucks. But you also have to understand that if your on the opposite side of the market for most or breakeven time than not, don't habitually end up looking for the answers in the EA, logic, strategies, test, opt, etc, what have you. Because, my gut feelings tell me, its just probably the lack and little known experience in this game.
This game, you need an awful lots of experience, and even 10 years worth of noticing patterns, changes, moves and signals, etc - I will say, you only can make a 20% cut on annum (if you get to survive a year), and if you're lucky enough to stumble on some consistency. To date, I have only seen 1 piece of EA that does so, however, the drawdown was too crazy for any small guy's risk.
If you have never, ever been on the trading floor, brokerages, middle offices, etc, yet you throw yourself into this, my advice is - start with your smallest pennies but the most precious ones. Take each penny worth like tens of grand. You may be out of job, desperate for income, in debt, or just out of freedom, etc, all the more better. Because that persevering attitude to earn for yourself, WILL create your winning strategy. The question is just how, when, where and who gets you there.
I know of people and my own colleagues who lost their jobs, swallowed tons of pains in their lives - started out all over again with $1000, then $2000, then $5000, and all that blown away, after years of hard work. Finally, with their last $100, trading on 0.1 micro lot, they made something out of it. And mind you, those are experienced traders... what more the inexperienced like most of us.
I wish you the best. And I hope I have been of help to you.