Something Interesting in Financial Video August 2013
A lesson on the business cycle and how the government uses fiscal policy to try and keep growth going and inflation in check and what this means for traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets.
Fiscal policy can be defined for our purposes very simply as anything relating to government spending and taxation. Before looking at the fiscal policy role of government in trying to influence the economy, one must first have an understanding of the business cycle. For a number of reasons which are widely debated the economy goes through repeated periods of growth and contraction over time which can be broken down into the following phases.
1. A Contraction where economic activity and growth slows and can turn negative
2. Trough where the economy stops contracting and a new expansion begins
3. An Expansion or the speeding up of economic growth.
4. A Peak where the growth of the economy maxes out and begins to turn downward
We could spend many months going over and debating why this is but for our purposes it is simply important to understand that, while the timing and length of each of these phases has varied widely, the above pattern repeats itself over and over again throughout history. This is important for us as traders to understand as different phases of the business cycle and changes in peoples forecasts of where the economy is in those cycles is arguably the greatest factor which effects the price level of every market.
Prior to the great depression the US Government had a pretty hands off approach in regards to the business cycle. Since the great depression however the government has played a much more active role in the economy with its stated goals being to act to facilitate full employment and price stability. To help understand these goals and the balancing act that goes on between them as they often conflict, lets look at how each relates to the different phases of the business cycle.
An introduction to interest rates, what they are composed of and their extreme importance in the stock, futures, and forex markets.
The second lesson of two on interest rates, why they are so important to the stock market and to traders and investors in the stock, futures, and forex markets with an introduction to the Federal Reserve.
In previous lesson we began our discussion on Monetary Policy with a look at one of its primary components, interest rates. In today's lesson we are going to continue this discussion with another look at how interest rates affect the economy and therefore the markets, and by introducing the institution which implements Monetary Policy, the Federal Reserve.
As we saw in our example yesterday, small movements in interest rates can have dramatic effects on the economy. Just as small changes in interest rates can dramatically increase the costs for individuals to own a home or borrow money to purchase other goods, they can also have a dramatic affect on the cost of doing business.
It is for this reason that when interest rates rise, making borrowed money more costly, that people will also be less likely to start or expand a business. This not only has an effect on the business owner themselves but filters throughout the entire economy as less businesses being started and expanded means less jobs, which means less people getting paychecks, which means less people spending money and on and on down the line. The opposite is of course also true for when interest rates fall and business owners take advantage of access to cheaper borrowed money.
In addition to interest rates affecting the stock market, interest rates also have direct and indirect affects on the bond, foreign exchange, and futures markets. Here are a couple of quick examples of this which we will expand on in later lessons:
The Bond Market: When interest rates rise the value of existing bonds fall as investors can now purchase the same bond with a higher interest rate and vice versa.
The Forex Market: When Interest rates it becomes more attractive from a yield standpoint to own the dollar against other currencies or to invest in interest bearing dollar based assets. This creates a demand for dollars which will many times cause the dollar to strengthen. The reverse is also true when interest rates fall.
The Commodities Market: When economies grow at a greater rate as a result of lower interest rates this will mean a greater demand for commodities so their value will rise and vice versa.
A lesson on the structure of the Federal reserve for traders and investors in the stock, futures, and forex markets.
In our last lesson we finalized our discussion on the importance of interest rates and introduced the Federal Reserve. In today's lesson we're going to continue our discussion on the Federal Reserve by looking at the parts of the Fed which are relevant to us as traders so we can begin to understand how this one institution is able to create drastic moves in the markets.
The Federal Reserve has many responsibilities which include regulating banking activity, playing a major role in operating the nation's payments system, and maintaining the stability of the financial system. The role that is most important to us as traders and therefore the role in which we will concentrate on in our lessons, is its role in conducting the nation's monetary policy.
***As a side note here the Federal Reserve is also the Central Bank of the United States. I say this here because most countries have something which operates in much the same way as the Fed which is many times referred to in other countries as the Central Bank. While these institutions may be structured differently from the Fed, from a broad perspective many of the things you learn in our lessons on monetary policy will apply to any central bank.
While the Fed's objectives are set by law, its day to day activities are not subject to government approval. This is an important point to understand as it means that unlike Fiscal Policy, which must be approved by both Congress and the President, monetary policy can be enacted as the Fed pleases. This gives the Fed much more control over the economy at least in the short term, and is the reason why some people consider the chairman of the Federal Reserve to be more powerful than even the President.
There are many interesting details about The Fed and its structure that I encourage everyone to explore, however the primary components which move markets, and are therefore the ones that we will focus on, are:
1. The Board of Governors: Located in Washington DC the Board of Governors is at the top of The Fed's food chain. It is made up of 7 members who are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. To help keep The Fed from being influenced by political factors, 5 of the Fed Governors are appointed to staggered 14 Year terms. The Chairman and the Vice Chairman are appointed to 4 year terms and can be reappointed should the President wish to have them.
2. The Regional Federal Reserve Banks: This is a network which includes the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, and 25 Branches. As most of you already know, different areas of the United States are comprised of different industries. As an example the New York area economy is influenced heavily by what is going on in financial services, while the San Francisco area economy is influenced heavily by what is happening in the technology sector. As this is the case, each of the regional banks are strategically located throughout the country so that the can stay abreast of current economic conditions in each area.
Polymetal Silver and Gold Cost Breakdown
Walter Peters on Price Action vs. Indicators (And How Indicators Can Hinder Development)
In this video, Peters shares his take on the age old discussion of price action vs. indicators, and why he favors price action. He believes indicators can be especially tempting to new traders to easily discard without thoroughly thinking about, while experienced traders who use indicators will be able to determine what the indicator is telling them simply by looking at the price anyway.
A lesson on open market operations and how the federal reserve increases and decreases the money supply in order to move interest rates and what this means for traders of the stock, futures, and foreign exchange markets.
In our last lesson we looked at the structure of the Federal Reserve and the components of the FOMC, the portion responsible for implementing Monetary Policy. Now that we have an understanding of this, we can look further into exactly how monetary policy is facilitated and what happens to markets under differing scenarios.
Monetary Policy very simply is anything which relates to action by the Federal Reserve to influence the amount of money and credit available in the economy. To understand exactly what this means, one first must understand the concept of fiat monetary systems.
Fiat Monetary Systems: The United States, like most major economies, has what is known as a fiat monetary system. A Fiat Monetary system very simply is any system which uses a monetary unit (in this case the US Dollar) which is not convertible to some commodity, in general a precious metal such as gold.
Fiat money, is money that is backed by the credit of some entity, normally a government, and the value for which is derived from its relative scarcity and the faith placed in it by the population which uses it.
This is important to us as traders because the fact that the Dollar is not convertible to a commodity such as gold gives the Federal Reserve the ability to increase or decrease the money supply as it sees fit, or in other words to enact Monetary Policy.
With this in mind the 3 tools available to the Fed for enacting monetary policy are:
• Open Market Operations
• The Discount Rate
• Reserve Requirements
The most common tool that the Fed uses, and therefore the one that we will cover, is Open Market Operations. Once we have an understanding of this and how increases or decreases in the supply of money affect demand and prices, the other two less commonly used tools will be more easily understood.
Through something which is known as the Open Market Committee, the Fed increases and decreases the supply of money by buying and selling US Government securities.
When The Fed wishes to reduce interest rates they will increase the supply of money by buying government securities using money that was not available in circulation before they made their purchase. As with anything, when additional supply is added and everything else remains constant, price normally falls. In this case the price that we are referring to is the cost of borrowing money or interest rates.
Conversely, when the fed wishes to increase interest rates they will instruct the open market committee to sell government securities thereby taking the money they earn on the proceeds of those sales out of circulation and reducing the money supply.
A lesson on monetary policy and how to determine when the federal reserve is going to raise or lower interest rates for active traders and investors in the stock, futures, and forex markets.
I am really a big fan of Ichimoku ... so - please find some video about this indicator.
if you can not see/watch the video for some reason so read the text (this text is from the video in almost 100% of the text in some cases).
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Trading the Cloud - The Kijun Sen (part #4)
The Kijun sen is one of the most "hardest working" lines in ichimoku, it just keeps giving us vital clues almost constantly throughout the day, this is why without a doubt, its my favourite part of ichimoku indicator.
Just like its brother, the 'tenken sen', the Kijun Sen measures the average of price's highest high and lowest low, however it does this over a longer time frame of 26 periods as opposed to the tenkan sen's 9 periods.
In this video I go into a little bit more detail about how price reacts to the Kumo cloud and how this gives the trader a very strong idea on how price is moving, and how you can start to predict future moves and trades just by quickly glancing at the chart.
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