Data-Feed: This is Ridiculous !! - page 2
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Any change in the log, when your profit factor changed?
For example, are there seemingly millions of 'data mismatched' messages at the log?
It happens to me. And the 'data mismatched' tells me that the data is dirty. I refresh my data when that happens.
If you're correct then my fear of someone have to be proficient at Statistic/Mathematics,Programming and Psychologist to be a successful trader would be realized. I better dust off the pre-Algebra book and start ordering statistic /calculus materials.
This is true to a certain extent. Even if for no other reason than to know of that which the pro's are doing (and losing by doing) just so you don't replicate and walk in their footsteps towards assured failure. Those who forget (or are ignorant of to begin with) the past are doomed to repeat it...
So yes, if you aim to be a "one man show" then you need to become a proficient "jack of all trades"...or if you happen to be skilled in a specific area you might try and find others who are skilled in the complementary areas and form a trading group.
After spending quite some time over the past couple of years studying the charts I have come to the conclusion that they are in fact fractal in nature, in that there is no discernable difference between the charts of different time frames, therefore this should mean an EA that works purely because it works, and not because it was optimized to some history data of a certain time period, would actually work equally well on any time frame chart, be that a daily, a weekly or 1 minute chart, and that if an EA only appears to work well on a particular time frame that should be a warning that the EA is actually flawed and only working for the reason of coincidence or over optimization, i would be interested to know what everyones opinion is on that
fractal, chaotic, random w/bias-gradient...all reasonably accurate descriptions.
Basically any vocabulary you would use to detail the dynamics of the weather as well as the forecasting thereof is appropriate for application to the financial markets.
But really one should not be satisfied with simply accepting a loosely specified notion of the markets - i.e. fractal, chaotic, etc - but rather one should seek to apply the statistical tools requisite of determining if such notions are warranted.
See, for example, this article: Testing Chaos and Fractal Properties in Economic Time Series
When it comes to fractal, chaotic, random theory, I enjoy reading these things just to see what the intellectuals are saying. As soon as I come across the equations, I just roll my eyes over them and back to reading text lol. Like I've said before, I'm new and not ruling anything out. If Nature Natural Selection of numbers somehow have the ability to forecast markets I'll accept it, make the $$ and not ask anymore questions.
What I've noticed however, is the supporters of Mathematical chaos/fractal theories are quick to Dismiss elliott-waves/fibonacci. To me, those concepts are all basically saying the same thing. Now before everyone starts shouting kick-him off the forum. This is just my opinion. What I need to do however is master how to craw, by learning Interest Rate Differentials, Hedging Properly and Spotting Arbitrage Mathematically. Before I can even join the discussion on Fractal/Chaos mathematics. Hopefully, by then, my math skill would be up there so I wouldn't have to skip the equations parts of the article.
ubzen to be sure it is all incremental learning...very much the natural order. You are right to feel as you do. 5yrs ago I had a very different viewpoint of the markets, and I'd be the fool to think I won't have an entirely different viewpoint on them in five years time again. Time gives us opportunity to identify and amend our ignorance, arrogance robs us of taking advantage of the opportunity. Long Term capital management had some pretty smart folks too, but they got arrogant at the wrong time. Everyone that survived them did so by not getting arrogant and they kept learning, incrementally, one day at a time.
jcadong5: Any change in the log, when your profit factor changed?
No actually, I almost always check the Journal/Log (hope thats the same thing). My best guesses are that the Symbol Properties may have changed or the broker changed/updated the historical data on their servers. Boy I hope its guess number one, no way for me to verify it now as I never wrote down/exported the Symbol Properties on earlier test. Guess#2 sounds like a conspiracy theory.
See, for example, this article: Testing Chaos and Fractal Properties in Economic Time Series
Technical Analysis is same as witchcraft or alchemy or even magic. It is just bull-crap and incorporating fancy mathematics such as fractal theorem and neuro network theory do not make it a legitimate branch of scientific analysis and studies.
Trading is an art form and chasing the holy grail by attempting to develop a perfect mathematical system will just lead anyone foolish enough onto the road to ruin. LTCM with a handful of Noble Laureates in Mathematics is a perfect example.
Market follows no man-made system!
Phillip, I already have heap-loads of learning materials & coding cut-out for me not to mention your Include function to play with. But just out of curiosity. What type of code is used in the article's algorithm? Thanks
That particular article uses a software package called Mathematica produced by Wolfram Research. The code itself isn't very useful unless you happen to already be a mathematica user. (which I am, but that isn't the reason I linked to the article)
There are two main consumer-level analyses packages - mathematica and matlab. Matlab is probably more prevalent than mathematica. I prefer mathematica because of its symbolic equation solver capabilities, and because it is just fun to play with.
What is relevant here is just to become more aware of that which you were previously unaware. Once you are aware of the mere existence of a given area of science/math/finance then you have the power to explore/digest/comprehend on your own terms and timeline.
Meaning that particular article was not selected as THE way to analyze market data for fractal properties but rather it was merely meant to wet your appetite and coax you into googling around for similar articles which might lend themselves more readily to your specific learning curve.