What is your opinion on this backtest

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What is your opinion on this backtest? Do you this it's stable enough as a base for further development. Now in this test it only trades short, with long trades turn on it still makes money, a bit less though.

Any and all advise appreciated!



AlpariUK-Demo (Build 226)

SymbolEURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar)
Period5 Minutes (M5) 2009.12.14 00:00 - 2010.05.07 22:55 (2009.12.14 - 2010.05.20)
ModelEvery tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)

Bars in test27742Ticks modelled3623409Modelling quality90.00%
Mismatched charts errors0




Initial deposit10000.00



Total net profit2730.08Gross profit4495.11Gross loss-1765.03
Profit factor2.55Expected payoff31.02

Absolute drawdown48.48Maximal drawdown494.46 (4.14%)Relative drawdown4.14% (494.46)

Total trades88Short positions (won %)88 (70.45%)Long positions (won %)0 (0.00%)

Profit trades (% of total)62 (70.45%)Loss trades (% of total)26 (29.55%)
Largestprofit trade80.69loss trade-89.41
Averageprofit trade72.50loss trade-67.89
Maximumconsecutive wins (profit in money)13 (1048.22)consecutive losses (loss in money)4 (-295.54)
Maximalconsecutive profit (count of wins)1048.22 (13)consecutive loss (count of losses)-295.54 (4)
Averageconsecutive wins4consecutive losses2
 

I'm new to all this so hopefully you're not offended by my opinion. Your results are all good, however your time-frame for the test is short. The fact that its trading in one direction is Alarming. This is funny but one of my first back-test traded in one direction without stop-loss and never had a losing trade for almost 3 years. When it did lose, the broker maximum loss forced it to exit. I mean, I was still profitable after the close but woah 75% drop. 

To me it felt like looking at a chart going straight up and trading in that direction from the moment it started going up. Humm, now all i need to know is which direction the market is going in form Today forward. Crystal Ball Anyone>

 
Thanks Ubzen, no, no offense at all. And yeah maybe it is a bit to easy to only go short EURUSD at this point. There is a stoploss in place though
 
Russell wrote >>
Thanks Ubzen, no, no offense at all. And yeah maybe it is a bit to easy to only go short EURUSD at this point. There is a stoploss in place though


I am also new to this. The way it looks to me most of the pairs are repeating 2008 behaviour. If we look at EURUSD weekly chart, price dropped like a rock between July and October 2008 from 1.6 to 1.24.. Currently EURUSD is doing similar thing.

So my point is that - we need to take certain time zones with respect to price behaviour.. Up, down and consolidation.. Then test our EA to see how it withstands.. it may not still provide 100% accuracy.. but still better than testing on one price behaviour zone..

Hope this helps.. no offense to your EA.. Just trying to be realistic so that you can develop a productive EA.

 

Yeah you're right! I wasn't thinking when I posted this. The sun was shinning and the girls where giggling outside, how can a man concentrate on creating an EA in these extreme conditions. 8-)

EPIC FAIL on my side!

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