Press review - page 154
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2014-05-14 06:45 GMT (or 08:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - French CPI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
EUR - French CPI = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers
==========
France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) final (MoM) registered at 0%, missing expectations (0.1%) in April2014-05-14 08:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Unemployment Rate]
if actual < forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
GBP - Unemployment Rate = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months
==========
U.K. Jobless Rate At 5-Year Low
The U.K. unemployment rate fell to a five-year low in the first quarter, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday.
The ILO jobless rate declined to 6.8 percent during January to March, in line with expectations, from 7.2 percent in October to December.
Average earnings pay including bonuses increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. Excluding bonuses, average income advanced 1.3 percent.
There were 1.12 million people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance in April, which was down 25,100 from March. Jobless claims, a narrow measure of unemployment, was expected to fall by 30,000.
The claimant count has fallen for 18 consecutive months, ONS said. The claimant count rate came in at 3.3 percent versus 3.4 percent in March.
Partly due to more self-employed people, employment rose by 283,000 from the prior quarter to 30.43 million in January to March period.
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newdigital, 2014.05.14 06:57
Trading the News: Bank of England Inflation Report (based on dailyfx article)
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Inflation Report may generate fresh highs in the GBP/USD should the central bank show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
The fresh developments coming out of BoE may boost interest rate expectations should the central bank raise its growth and inflation forecast, and Governor Mark Carney may do little to halt the ongoing appreciation in the British Pound as it helps the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to deliver price stability in the U.K.
Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario
Sticky price growth paired with the ongoing improvement in the U.K. labor market may prompt the BoE to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the GBP/USD may continue to extend the advance from earlier this year should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to raise the benchmark interest rate later this year.
Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario
However, efforts to cool the housing market may limit the BoE’s scope to normalize monetary policy in 2014 as the central bank continues to highlight the persistent slack in the real economy, and the British Pound may face a larger correction in the days ahead should the committee further delay its exit strategy.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Adopts More Hawkish Tone- Presents More Detailed Exit Strategy
- Need green, five-minute candle following an upbeat statement to favor a long British Pound trade
- If reaction favors buying British Pound, long GBP/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: BoE Monetary Policy Report Drags on Interest Rate Expectations- Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short GBP/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseGBP/USD Daily
February 2014 Bank of England Inflation Report
The BoE inflation report is likely to spur volatility in GBP crosses, especially in the context of the current situation with rate expectations. At the last release, Carney said that the BoE sees further rate increases as gradual and limited. At the release we saw the Pound rally as comments indicated that the central bank saw rate increases, although gradual, sooner rather than later. Since then we have seen the appreciating Pound help cap higher inflation and any further indication that expectations have been lowered may weigh negatively on GBP crosses.
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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.05.14
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GBPUSD M5 : 56 pips price movement by GBP - BOE Inflation Report news event
2014-05-14 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - PPI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
USD PPI = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers
==========
U.S. Producer Prices Rise More Than Expected In April
Producer prices rose by much more than anticipated in the month of April, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Wednesday, with the increase partly due to a sharp jump in food prices.
The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand rose by 0.6 percent in April following a 0.5 percent increase in March. Economists had been expecting producer prices to edge up by about 0.2 percent.
Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, also showed continued growth, climbing by 0.5 percent in April after rising by 0.6 percent in March. Core prices had been expected to rise by 0.2 percent.
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 15, 2014 Forecast
The USD/CAD eased by 4 points to trade at 1.0901 after the US dollar made healthy gains throughout the early part of the week. The loonie rose 0.08 of a cent to 91.74 cents US amid general U.S. dollar weakness. Analysts point to low expectations for first quarter U.S. gross domestic product growth, owing to the impact of severe winter weather and suggestions that the economy may actually have contracted during the January-March period. “Accordingly the expectations for Fed interest rate hikes have been pared back slightly,” said Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist, Managing Director Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets.
It’s a light week for Canadian data. Statistics Canada releases the March report on manufacturing shipments on Thursday.
Markets are relatively quiet with the USD focused on individual domestic stories and negative developments for EURThe U.S. dollar was almost unchanged against the Canadian dollar on Wednesday, as trade remained subdued without any significant economic data to give investors a clear direction.
USD/CAD was last trading at 1.0902 and was moving in a range of 1.0894 to 1.0922.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.0875 and resistance at 1.0925, Tuesday's high.
The pair showed little reaction after data released earlier Wednesday showed that U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in April, while core prices also beat expectations.
U.S. producer prices increased by 0.6% last month the Commerce Department said, above forecasts for a 0.2% gain, after rising 0.5% in March.
The producer price index rose at an annualized rate of 2.1% in April, above expectations for a 1.7% increase and up from 1.4% in the preceding month.
The core producer price index advanced 0.5% last month, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase, and was up 1.9% from a year earlier.
Elsewhere, the loonie, as the Canadian dollar is also known, was almost flat against the euro, with EUR/CAD at 1.4947.
The euro came under renewed selling pressure on Wednesday following reports that the European Central Bank is preparing to cut rates next month.
Reuters reported that the ECB is preparing a "package of measures" including cuts to all interest rates, with negative rates on bank deposits, as well as measures to bolster lending to small and medium size businesses.
The report came one day after the Wall Street Journal reported the Germany's Bundesbank would back monetary easing measures by the ECB if they were needed to keep low levels of inflation from becoming entrenched in the region.
Later last week, the ECB indicated that it could ease monetary policy as soon as its next meeting in June, to stop inflation in the euro zone from falling too low.
2014-05-14 23:50 GMT (or 01:50 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - GDP]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
JPY GDP = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy
==========
Japan GDP Rises 5.9% On Year In Q1
Japan's gross domestic product expanded 5.9 percent on year in the first quarter of 2014, the Cabinet Office said in Thursday's preliminary reading.
That was well above forecasts for an increase of 4.2 percent following the downwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in the previous three months (originally 0.7 percent).
On a quarterly basis, GDP was up 1.5 percent - also topping expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent following the downwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in the fourth quarter (originally 0.2 percent).
Analysts say that the big jump in the economy was the result of dramatically higher consumer spending - particularly on big-ticket items - ahead of the higher consumption tax that took effect in April.
Nominal GDP gained 1.2 percent on quarter, beating forecasts for 1.0 percent following the 0.2 percent gain in Q4.
Capital spending jumped 4.9 percent on quarter - well above forecasts for 2.1 percent after gaining 1.4 percent in the previous three months.
Consumer spending climbed 2.1 percent on quarter - matching expectations and up from 0.4 percent in the three months prior.
The GDP deflator was flat on quarter versus forecasts for a fall of 0.1 percent after shedding a downwardly revised 0.4 percent in the three months prior (originally -0.3 percent).
Also on Thursday, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that its index measuring tertiary industry activity in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent on month in March, standing at 103.0.
That was in line with expectations following the upwardly revised 0.9 percent contraction in February (originally -1.0 percent).
Among the individual components, activity was up for retail sales, personal services, accommodations, real estate and communications.
Activity was down for financial services, scientific research, utilities and medical care.
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2014-05-15 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - Manufacturing Sales]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
CAD Manufacturing Sales = Change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers
==========
2014-05-15 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
USD CPI = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers
==========
U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.3% In April, In Line With Estimates
With prices for gasoline, shelter, and food all rising, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing that U.S. consumer prices increased in line with economist estimates in the month of April.
The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.3 percent in April after edging up by 0.2 percent in March. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by about 0.3 percent.
The increase in consumer prices was partly due to continued growth in food prices, which rose by 0.4 percent for the third consecutive month.
Prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs showed a notable 1.5 percent increase in April and are up by 3.9 percent over the last three months.
A rebound in energy prices also contributed to higher consumer prices, with energy prices rising by 0.3 percent in April after dipping by 0.1 percent in March.
Gasoline prices surged up by 2.3 percent in April after falling for three straight months. Prices for natural gas showed a more modest 0.3 percent increase.
Excluding the increases in food and energy prices, core consumer prices still rose by 0.2 percent in April, matching the increase seen in the previous month. Core prices had been expected to tick up by 0.1 percent.
The Labor Department said the growth in core prices reflected increases by most of the major components, including shelter, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles, used cars and trucks, and recreation.
With the monthly increases in prices, the annual rate of consumer price growth accelerated to 2.0 percent in April from 1.5 percent in March, representing the biggest increase since last July.
The annual rate of core consumer price growth also ticked up to 1.8 percent in April from 1.7 percent in the previous month.
Paul Dales, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, "It's possible that some of these rises are payback from the earlier weakness generated by the bad weather. But most of that rebound took place in March."
"In short, this could be the start of a widespread pick-up in price pressures that will take both the CPI and PCE measures of core inflation above the Fed's 2% target," he added.
On Wednesday, the Labor Department released a separate report showing that producer prices rose at their fastest pace in over a year in April.
The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand rose by 0.6 percent in April following a 0.5 percent increase in March.
The monthly price growth reflected the biggest increase since September of 2012 and exceeded economist estimates for an uptick of about 0.2 percent.
Core producer prices also showed continued growth, climbing by 0.5 percent in April after rising by 0.6 percent in March. Core prices had been expected to rise by 0.2 percent.