Press review - page 567

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference and range price movement 

2017-10-26 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

• past data is 0.00%
• forecast data is 0.00%
• actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. 

==========

From official report :

• "The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."
• "As regards non-standard monetary policy measures, purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at the current monthly pace of €60 billion until the end of December 2017. From January 2018 the net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €30 billion until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the APP in terms of size and/or duration."
• "The Eurosystem will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance."
• "The main refinancing operations and the three-month longer-term refinancing operations will continue to be conducted as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the last reserve maintenance period of 2019."

==========

EUR/USD M30: range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and Brent Crude Oil: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-10-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 3.1%
• forecast data is 2.6%
• actual data is 3.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

• "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent."
• "The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2017."

==========

GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

USD/CNH M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Double smoothed stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - daily bullish breakout (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the bullish reversal: price broke 94.61 daily resistance level to above for the bullish breakout to be continuing with 99.76 nearest bullish target.

• "The European Central Bank may have set the table for US Dollar Bulls to enjoy a fine fourth quarter this week. On Thursday, President Mario Draghi caused a major shift in positioning as evidenced from multiple markets that were pricing in EUR strength over the coming quarters unwinding. The takeaways from Thursday was an assurance from the ECB was that the market should not worry about ECB rate hikes, which was something the market was pricing in before the meeting. Draghi also discouraged the use of the word taper (the wind-down of QE) as the ECB will be looking to provide substantial market support going forward, which caused the EUR to eventually fall below 1.16 and the DXY to break above 95."
• "This week, the US Dollar has traded to a three month high with sentiment rising and favoring further DXY strength going forward. On the charts, the significant development this week was the close above the confluence of resistance near 94.20. The zone around there combined three different technical focuses. First, the mid-August corrective/lower high was at 94.15 followed by a 161.8% extension at 94.20 of the initial move higher when the DXY was seen as too oversold in early September given possible rate hikes at 91.01 to the September 14 high of 92.65. Lastly, a price channel that has framed price action for most of 2017 also predicted price pressure developing above 94. The close this week that accounted for the highest weekly gain of 2017 likely indicates a shift in behavior toward the DXY?"

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The week ahead brings a hefty dose of fresh fodder to inform this narrative. The FOMC will convene for a policy meeting and marquee data releases including October’s employment numbers as well as the closely watched ISM and PMI activity surveys are set to cross the wires. Both components seem likely to complement the greenback’s latest upward push. Recent comments from Fed Chair Yellen have not-so-subtly signaled that the US central bank is on track for a rate hike in December. That makes the release of November’s policy statement a familiar pre-game exercise unambiguously setting the stage for what’s to follow. Meanwhile, a steady outperformance on US data outcomes since mid-June opens the door for another round of upbeat releases on the horizon."

-----------

Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily bearish breakdown (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from1.1857 resistance level to below for the Ichimoku cloud to be crossing for the bearish reversal to be started. The price is testing support level at 1.1621 to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

• "For starters, we may very well see a bounce and retest of the neckline around the 11670-threshold. Retesting the ‘neckline’ is a fairly common occurrence and can offer traders a spot to establish (or add to) short positions. We may even see a stronger bounce develop back above resistance, but is likely to prove short-lived if the topping formation is to exert downward pressure. At this time, it will require a move above the trend-line running down off the September high and overtaking of Thursday’s sharp sell-off to bring pause to last week’s break."
• "Looking lower, there is support not far below at the lower parallel tied to the trend-line off the September high. After this minor level of support, nothing meaningful arrives until 11429, 11366, 11298, and the 200-day MA (currently 11243, but rising). The ‘measured move target’(MMT) clocks in at ~11240. The ‘MMT’ is calculated by simply subtracting the height of the pattern (head to neckline) from the neckline. It’s a symmetry-based target."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "The Bank of England will almost certainly double the benchmark UK Bank Rate to 0.5% on “Super Thursday”, increasing it for the first time in more than a decade. However, with the markets pricing in a probability of around 88% of a hike, there is a risk that the British Pound will fall back on the news, just as the Euro fell after the European Central Bank announced the predicted tightening of Euro-Zone monetary policy in the past week."

-----------

Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "At next week’s meeting, there are few hopes for any actual moves. The one prospect of change on the horizon is a potential nudge-lower to near-term inflation forecasts. In a Bloomberg report earlier in the week, ‘people familiar with the Central Bank’s discussions’ implied that the BoJ may be considering a “small” cut to their inflation projections for this fiscal year, which ends in March of 2018. The current projection of 1.1% has started to look like quite the stretch: August saw inflation come in at a surprising .7%, but this was after four consecutive months of CPI coming in at a .4% clipin a year that saw inflation remain below .5% for a full twelve months."

-----------

Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The coming week offers few obvious opportunities for the Aussie to get out of jail. The US Federal Reserve’s November monetary policy meeting will give its dispensation on Thursday and that will of course be the global market highlight. For sure the Australian Dollar remains under a degree of downside pressure but there’s some chance that this is a little overdone relative to its home country’s overall economic performance. This performance is far from shabby even if wages, consumption and inflation are lagging it. While acknowledging that pressure, it might not be too much of a surprise to see the Aussie gain in the coming week."

-----------

Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "USD/CAD has staged a meaningful rally following the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision, with the pair at risk of extending the near-term advance as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to deliver another rate-hike in 2017. Market participants will also be closely watching the fresh rhetoric coming out of the FOMC even as Chair Janet Yellen and Co. are expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold, with Fed Fund Futures highlight a greater than 90% probability for a move in December. Indeed, the Fed may merely utilize the November 1 meeting to prepare U.S. households and businesses for another 25bp rate-hike as the central bank anticipates ‘economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate.’"

-----------

Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)

NZD/USD - "NZD/USD has dropped sharply since the announcement of a new government whose policies include a shake-up of the Reserve Bank Act which would give the central bank a more prominent in controlling the foreign exchange rate, and a plan to increase the minimum wage. Recent New Zealand trade data disappointed with imports rising more than expected in September while exports missed market expectations. A rebound for NZD/USD is likely to find resistance at the 0.6993 Fibonacci retracement level ahead of the cluster of previous lows around 0.7050. On the downside the May 2016 low of 0.6675 comes into play, followed by a Fibonacci extension low of 0.6616."

-----------

Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).