Press review - page 28
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If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
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Bank of Canada stands pat on key interest rate
The Bank of Canada made no change in its key policy interest rate this morning as expected, leaving it at the one per cent level it has been at for the past three years.
The central bank said low interest rates will remain "appropriate" as long as inflation and growth in Canada remain subdued.
The bank noted that the global economy continues to expand, but its "dynamic has moderated," saying that recent data suggested "slightly less momentum overall" in the U.S. than anticipated.
But it said financial volatility has increased in a number of emerging economies, with the notable exception of China, which it says is still showing "solid" economic growth.
The Bank of Canada also noted that the housing sector has been "slightly stronger than anticipated," and said household credit growth has continued to slow in the presence of higher mortgage rates.
The policy statement the bank released along with its rate decision was similar in tone to the last one in July.
Trading the News: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 09/05/2013 11:45 GMT, 7:45 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 0.50%
Previous: 0.50%
Why Is This Event Important:
With the ongoing theme of utilizing non-standard measures, ECB President Mario Draghi, who’s scheduled to deliver the policy statement at 12:30 GMT, may implement his own style of ‘verbal intervention’ to encourage a stronger recovery while addressing the threat for deflation. In turn, the Euro may struggle to hold its ground should the central bank show a preference for a lower exchange-rate.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Trading the ECB interest rate decision may not be as clear cut as some of our other trade setups as the press conference with President Draghi ends with a Q&A session.
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Adjust Forward-Guidance in Favor of Easing Cycle
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the statement to consider a short EURUSD trade
- If market reaction favors a short trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
- Place stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit
Bullish EUR Trade: Draghi Strikes More-Neutral ToneIf actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Private Sector Employment Rises Slightly Less Than Expected
Private sector employment in the U.S. rose by slightly less than expected in the month of August, according to a report released by payroll processor Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) on Thursday.
ADP said private sector employment increased by 176,000 jobs in August compared to a downwardly revised increase of 198,000 jobs in July.
Economists had been expecting the private sector to add about 180,000 jobs compared to the addition of 200,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.
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Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 5 September 2013 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET:
Watch official video here.
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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U.K. Inflation, Rate Hike Expectations Fall: BoE Survey
Britons' inflation expectations have eased from May and the proportion of respondents expecting an interest rate hike in the next 12 months was the lowest since 2008, results of a key survey from the Bank of England revealed on Friday.
Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 3.2 percent, which was lower than the 3.6 percent predicted in May, the Bank of England/GfK NOP Inflation Attitudes August Survey showed.
Respondents saw the current inflation rate at 4 percent versus 4.5 percent in May. Inflation is expected to reach 3 percent in two years and 3.5 percent in five years time.
The survey was carried out among 2050 people aged 16 and over, between August 8 and 13, which was immediately after the Monetary Policy Committee's forward guidance announcement under the new governor Mark Carney.
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Employment Rises Less Than Expected In August
With job growth in the retail and healthcare sectors partly offset by the loss of jobs in the information sector, the Labor Department released a report on Friday showing that U.S. employment rose by less than expected in the month of August.
The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment increased by 169,000 jobs in August compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 175,000 jobs.
2013-09-09 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time| [AUD - Home Loans]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia Home Loans +2.4% In July
The total number of home loans in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent on month in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 52,204.
That beat forecasts for an increase of 2.0 percent following the downwardly revised 2.6 percent gain in June (originally 2.7 percent).
The value of loans was roughly flat on month at A$15.391 billion after rising 2.4 percent in the previous month.
Investment lending jumped 2.9 percent on month to A$8.789 billion after easing 0.1 percent in the month prior.
2013-09-09 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time| [CAD - Building Permits]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
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USD/CAD falls to 3-week low after Canadian data
The Loonie strengthened and dragged USD/CAD to a fresh 3-week low after data showed Canadian building permits grew much more than anticipated in July.
Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change
U.K. Jobless Claims are projected to contract another 21.0K in August and the ongoing improvement in the labor market is likely to spark fresh monthly highs in the GBPUSD as it raises the scope of seeing a stronger recovery in Britain.
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 09/11/2013 8:30 GMT, 4:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: -21.0K
Previous: -29.2K
Why Is This Event Important:
With Bank of England (BoE) policy makers scheduled to testify in front of the U.K. Treasury Committee later this week, a better-than-expected employment report may encourage Governor Mark Carneytoadopt a more neutral tone for monetary policy, while a growing number of central bank officials may highlight a greater risk of seeing above-target price growth for an extended period of time as the economy gets on a firmer footing.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Jobless Claims Contracts 21.0K or More :
- Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBPUSD trade
- If reaction favors a buy trade, long GBPUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish GBP Trade: Unemployment Report Disappoints :Unemployment claims slipped another 29.2K in July following the 29.4K decline the month prior, while the
jobless rate held steady at an annualized 7.8% for the fourth consecutive month. Indeed, the sharp decline propped up the British Pound, with the GBPUSD making a run at the 1.5500 handle, but we saw the sterling consolidate throughout the day as the pair closed at 1.5498.
President Obama Speach by AUDUSD chart - from 19 pips down to 25 pips up
2013-09-11 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time| [USD - President Obama Speach]
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