Press review - page 542

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index - weekly correction; 12,088 support level is the key (based on the article)

The price on weekly chart was bounced from 12,947 resistance level for the descending trianglew pattern to be testing to below together with 12,088 support level to be broken for the secondary correction to be continuing.

• "With the ‘head-and-shoulders’ (H&S) top having officially triggered we should continue to see weakness develop. This type of formation, as is the case with any technical pattern, has a measured move target (MMT) which is derived by its size (height subtracted from the neckline, in this case). That points to approximately 11630. But that is a symmetry-derived target and doesn’t take into account actual price points. With that said, there is support along the way which we’ll want to keep an eye on. The first up is the gap-fill not far below at 12048, then the swing-low in April at 11941, followed by a swing-low in March at 11850. The March swing-low is fairly minor in terms of its relevance, but the fact the 200-day MA clocks in right around the same point makes ~11850 a big support level. Then comes the measured move target at approximately 11630."
• "What will turn a bearish view around? The DAX has its work cut out for it before we begin seeing a bullish price sequence develop. For now, we’ll stick with a short bias until we see price action suggest we should do otherwise, and update as things progress."

[Sergey Golubev]

FTSE 100 - daily ranging for direction; 7,332 is the key key level for the bearish reversal (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart is located within Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction of the bullish trend to be resumed or the bearish reversal to be started. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below together with 7,332 support level for the bearish reversal.

3 FTSE 100 Stocks That Should Be Avoided In August -

• Next. "The City certainly expects Next to remain under pressure for some time yet, and predicts earnings dips of 9% and 2% in the years to January 2018 and 2019 respectively. Despite its low forward P/E ratio of 9.9 times, I reckon the firm remains an unattractive selection given the strong chances of these numbers receiving biting downgrades in the months ahead."
• Kingfisher. "City analysts expect Kingfisher to endure a 4% earnings drop in the 12 months ending January 2018 as sales trend lower in both of its major markets. And while a 15% bottom-line rebound is predicted for fiscal 2019, I would consider this a challenging target. I believe Kingfisher should be avoided in spite of its undemanding forward P/E ratio of 12.6 times."
• Royal Bank of Scotland. "When you also throw in the prospect of crushing financial penalties from across the Atlantic, as well as the possibility of rising revenues trouble (reflecting both a flailing economy and aggressive asset shedding), I reckon RBS is a poor stock pick irrespective of its low forward earnings multiple of 11.9 times."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business and range price movement 

2017-08-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 57.8
• forecast data is 56.4
• actual data is 56.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. 

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From official report :

• "The July PMI® registered 56.3 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the June reading of 57.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the June reading of 63.5 percent. The Production Index registered 60.6 percent, a 1.8 percentage point decrease compared to the June reading of 62.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 55.2 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the June reading of 57.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 55.4 percent, a 1.6 percentage point decrease from the June reading of 57 percent. The Inventories Index registered 50 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the June reading of 49 percent. The Prices Index registered 62 percent in July, an increase of 7 percentage points from the June reading of 55 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 17th consecutive month, with a faster rate of increase in July compared with June. Comments from the panel generally reflect expanding business conditions, with new orders, production, employment, backlog and exports all growing in July compared to June, as well as supplier deliveries slowing (improving) and inventories unchanged during the period."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-08-01 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Employment Change]

• past data is 1.1%
• forecast data is 0.7%
• actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people. 

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From rttnews article :

• "The jobless rate in New Zealand came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday."
• "Overall employment fell 0.2 on quarter, missing forecasts for a gain of 0.7 percent following the 1.1 percent increase in the three months prior."
• "In the June 2017 quarter, 3,000 fewer people were unemployed," labor market and households senior manager Diane Ramsay said. "The unemployment rate for women fell to 4.9 percent, with 10,000 fewer women unemployed - the lowest it's been since March 2009."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Employment Change news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin prices remained largely unscathed in spite of the hard fork that created rival currency Bitcoin Cash (based on the article)

BTC/USD price on hour chart broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the reversal from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition. The price is on narrow ranging within 2,754/2,697 levels waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be continuing or the bullish trend to be resumed.

• "Bitcoin prices have remained largely unscathed today in spite of the much-hyped hard fork, which resulted in the creation of Bitcoin Cash, a rival cryptocurrency that is similar to Bitcoin but touts a far larger block size."
• "At the time of report, Bitcoin was trading at $2,751.40, roughly 4.3% lower for the session, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI)."

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin cash, new crypto-currency (based on the article)

• "Bitcoin’s underlying software code was split on Tuesday, generating a new clone called "bitcoin cash", but the new virtual currency got off to a slow start due to lacklustre support for its network. The initiative was headed by a small group of mostly China-based bitcoin miners — programmers who essentially operate the bitcoin network — who were not happy with scheduled improvements to the currency’s technology meant to increase its capacity to process transactions."
• "It’s been a slow start for bitcoin cash," said Iqbal Gandham, MD at trading platform eToro. "The delay ... could be a result of a lack of miner support for the new crypto-currency." On Tuesday, bitcoin cash traded on certain exchanges at a median price of $146.37, according to BitInfoCharts.com, while bitcoin was at $2,729 on the Bitstamp platform, down 4.6% from Monday."

The chart above is Bitcoin/USD (not Bitcoin cash/USD)

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-08-03 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 2.02B
• forecast data is 1.78B
• actual data is 0.86B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. 

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From official report :

• "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,166m in June 2017, a decrease of $409m on the surplus in May 2017."
• "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $856m in June 2017, a decrease of $1,168m on the surplus in May 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: ranging bullish breakout; daily bullish reversal

2017-08-02 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -7.2M
• forecast data is -3.2M
• actual data is -1.5M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.5 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish breakout. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels for the primary bullish market condition. For now, the price is on ranging within s/r levels waiting for the direction of the bullish trend to be resumed or 

If the price breaks 52.38 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 51.86 to below on M5 close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: ranging bullish reversal. The price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to aove together with 52.91 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed.

[Sergey Golubev]

DAX Index - ranging bearish continuation; 12,082 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: price is testing descending triangle pattern to below together with 12,082 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "The trend is undeniably weak since hitting a record high in June, the weakest of major global indices at this time. The euro continuing to press on to two-and-half year highs is certainly not helping the cause for investors. The correlation between the DAX and euro is a strongly negative 87% over the past three months. For traders, the trend higher in the euro, lower in the DAX has provided opportunity in a low-volatile global market environment. It’ll be interesting to see if the strong relationship between the two will persist should we see a turn in the euro (As we discuss regularly in webinars, correlations can get turned on their heads without warning.)"
• "The DAX volatility benchmark – VDAX – is trading up over 14, which still isn’t very high, but certainly an improvement from the string of sub-10 readings we recently saw in the VIX, the volatility benchmark for the S&P 500. So, if there is a major global index to look to for volatility it’s the DAX, along with the Nasdaq 100, which has also experienced volatility in its own right. The Nasdaq 100 volatility barometer – VXN – is trading over 14."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2017-08-03 12:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

• past data is 0.25%
• forecast data is 0.25%
• actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. 

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From official report :

• "The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 2 August 2017, the MPC voted by a majority of 6-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%.  The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion.  The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion.  The Committee voted unanimously to close the drawdown period for the Term Funding Scheme (TFS) on 28 February 2018, as envisaged when the scheme was introduced."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision news event