Press review - page 508

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "Looking ahead, though, the Aussie is generally one of the first currencies to suffer when traders decide to limit their risks by seeking havens such as the Japanese Yen and gold. And it would be unwise at the moment to rule out a rise in risk-off sentiment given the ongoing turmoil in Syria, the approach of the French elections and – particularly – the belligerence of North Korea."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

XAU/USD - "Comments made by President Donald Trump regarding overvaluation in the greenback further fueled the advance, taking prices through key regions of resistance on Wednesday. Despite the president’s comments, the markets seemed primed for the upcoming Fed normalization (3 additional hikes this year) and from a fundamental standpoint, the long-USD argument may be nearing exhaustion in the interim. The DXY is down more roughly 1.6% on the year and more than 3% off the yearly high. That said, while the risk does remain for further dollar losses near-term, the knee-jerk trump rally in gold is unlikely to sustain prices at these levels and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable heading into next week."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)

S&P 500 - "U.S. markets ended last week on a negative note, closing at their worst levels of the holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 broke the November trend-line on Wednesday after carving out a second lower high on the day the FOMC released its minutes from the March policy meeting. The next leg in this sequence of lower highs since the March record high, is for a lower low below last month’s low of 2322. The next level of support on a lower low may come in at the lower parallel around 2307. The next levels of price support comes in at 2301, and with aggressive selling we could see a move towards the 2270s. It will take some work from current levels to turn the picture positive."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for DAX Index (based on the article)

DAX - "All economic data set to be released next week is of the ‘low’ to ‘medium’ impact variety. Since very nearly touching off at the record high of 12391 set in 2015 the DAX has been in pullback mode, but if it doesn’t soon turn higher from trend support the pullback could turn into an outright bearish decline. Given the way U.S. equities are heading, an outright bearish decline is looking like a probable scenario."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for FTSE 100 Index (based on the article)

FTSE 100 - "Similarly to the DAX, the footsie is on the verge of a breakdown if it can’t get into gear early in the week. Again, as we said regarding German stocks, it appears the U.S. is set to lead everything lower. If, however, the FTSE can hold and mount a rally, given problems around the 2013 top-side trend-line, we want to see a close above 7400 and last week’s two reversal bars before turning optimistic about another challenge of record highs or better. Price action running back the middle of March is carving out a head-and-shoulder(ish) pattern, with a drop below lows extending back to March acting as a trigger. A decline below 7256 would put the footsie below all three lows since the middle of last month. In the event of a breakdown, support levels in focus arrive at 7192 and 7093."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - The fundamental focal points for the energy market next week:

• Monday: EIA monthly drilling productivity report
• Tuesday 4:30 PM ET: API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
• Wednesday 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Supply Report
• Fridays 1:00 PM ET: Baker-Hughes Rig Count at
• Friday 3:30 PM ET: Release of the CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on U.S. futures, options contracts

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2017-04-17 03:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

• past data is 6.8%
• forecast data is 6.8%
• actual data is 6.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From rttnews article:

• "Gross domestic product advanced 6.9 percent year-over-year in the first quarter, just above the 6.8 percent rise in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, economists had expected the growth to remain stable at 6.8 percent."
• "During the first three months of the year, the national fixed asset investment grew 9.2 percent from a year ago."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news event

[Sergey Golubev]

IBM - daily bearish with descending triangle; 168.98 support is the key (based on the article)

Share price was on the correction since the beginning of March this year: the price broke support levels to below to be located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging condition waiting for direction. The downtrend was continuing in the beginning of April by breaking Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.

If the price breaks descending triangle pattern together with 168.98 support level to below so the bearish trend will be resumed, if not so the price will be on bearish ranging waiting for direction.

• "IBM is scheduled to report earnings after Tuesday's close. IBM's stock hit a record high of $215.90/share in 2013 and is trading near $169/share. The stock is prone to big moves after reporting earnings and can easily gap up if the numbers are strong. Conversely, if the numbers disappoint, the stock can easily gap down."
• "IBM is expected to earn $2.34/share on $18.49 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, the so-called Whisper number is $2.38. The Whisper number is the Street's unofficial view on earnings."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-04-18 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From official report:

• "Although forward-looking indicators of labour demand continued to suggest an increase in employment growth over the period ahead, this had been true for some time without leading to an improvement in labour market conditions."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD: daily bullish breakout ahead of a snap general election announced (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is breaking ascending triangle pattern together with 1.2614 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.2737/1.2774 nearest bullish target to re-enter.

• "British Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday announced a snap general election for June 8."
• "In a surprise statement at 10 Downing Street, May said the U.K. needed stability, certainty and strong leadership after the June 2016 referendum. Her government has delivered that, she claimed."