Press review - page 487

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.S. Consumer Price Index (adapted from dailyfx)

• "A pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the appeal of the dollar as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy in 2017, but a marked slowdown in the core rate of inflation may drag on interest rate expectations as the central bank persistently warns ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.’"
• "Recent comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggests the committee may pay increased attention to the developments in the core rate of inflation as the central bank head argues ‘inflation moved up over the past year, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices,’ and the FOMC may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at its next interest rate decision on March 15 as ‘considerable uncertainty attends the economic outlook.’ With that said, signs of softening price growth may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback, but the dollar may continue to gain ground throughout 2017 as Fed Fund Futures continue to highlight a greater than 60% probability for a June rate-hike."

Bearish USD Trade: CPI Report Instills Mixed Outlook for U.S. Price Growth

• "Need green, five-minute candle following the CPI print to consider a long EUR/USD position."
• "If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."

Bullish USD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Beat Market Expectations

• "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD position."
• "Implement same strategy as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index: Daily bullish trend to be continuing with 11,892 level as new target high (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price is continuing with the bullish trend by 11.808 level to be broken for the 11,892 level as the new daily target.

• "Levels to watch on the top-side start with the Jan high at 11893, and then just above there we have to go back to a swing high created in May 2015 at 11920 and a month before that at 12079. We’ll focus first on those levels, worry about the record 2015 high at 12391 later should ‘momo’ really kick in." 

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index: Intra-day hourly correction (based on the article)

Intra-day H1 price is above 200 SMA in the bullish area by the bouncing from 11.844 resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started with 11.656 support level as a bearish reversal target. Alternative, if the price breaks 11.844 resistance level to above on H1 close bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.

• "Looking to the hourly chart, the surge starting last week is morphing into a sharply angled channel which could help keep short-term traders guided on the right side of the tape. Even if it were to break the structure a bit by moving outside of it, as long as higher highs and higher lows continue to etch themselves out then there isn’t good reason to be a hero here trying to find a top. Again, though, for day-traders it’s a different story, but will still likely to find it easier to be on the bid rather than the offer for the time-being." 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 22 pips range price movement

2017-02-16 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 16.3K
• forecast data is 9.7K
• actual data is 13.5K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report:

• "Employment increased 13,500 to 11,998,200. Full-time employment decreased 44,800 to 8,125,700 and part-time employment increased 58,300 to 3,872,500."
• "Unemployment decreased 19,300 to 720,200. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work decreased 16,000 to 511,000 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 3,300 to 209,200."

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AUD/USD M5: 22 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

General Motors: breakout with the daily bullish reversal (based on the article)

GM share D1 price is on breakout by crossing Ichimoku cloud to above: the price was bounced from 34.67 support level to above for the 37.40 resistance level to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing. 

• "General Motors never will be Caterpillar, John Deere or even Dow Chemical, all selling at high teens multiples and never needing a bailout from the U.S. Treasury. Nobody cares that GM yields 4.3% on a 30% payout of earnings, sells at a modest premium to book value, at 6 times earnings and 10 times free cash flow."
• "If $6 a share is peak earnings this cycle, assume $3 in a mediocre year and zilch in a recessionary setting. This gives me $3 a share in average earnings power next 3 years, far below management’s forecast of over $6 a share 2017. They expect $15 billion in auto operating cash flow and $6 billion in free cash flow. This puts the stock at 9 times free cash flow and under 4 times operating cash flow, what a news stand goes for."
• "GM's market share started its elongated slide late sixties from a 48% share, falling to 44% in the seventies, then 40% in the eighties. It dropped alarmingly to 32% in the nineties and pretty much bottomed out at 17% currently. They sold over 3 million cars domestically last year, 3.6 million total in North America."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and Dollar Index: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2017-02-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

• past data is 23.6
• forecast data is 18.5
• actual data is 43.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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From official report:

• "The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a reading of 23.6 in January to 43.3 this month and has remained positive for seven consecutive months."

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EUR/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events

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USD/CAD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Retail Sales and 23 pips range price movement

2017-02-16 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.8%
• forecast data is 1.1%
• actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

• "The total volume of retail sales rose 0.8 percent for the December 2016 quarter. This increase follows a 0.8 percent rise in the September 2016 quarter."
• "In core retail (which excludes the two vehicle-related industries), the sales volume rose 0.6 percent in the December 2016 quarter, after a 0.2 percent rise in the September 2016 quarter."

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NZD/USD M5: 23 pips range price movement by New Zealand Retail Sales news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - bullish daily ranging with symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for the direction ofthe trend to be started (based on the article)

The price is on ranging above Ichimoku cloud within the narrow support/resistance levels:

• 1.2581 resistance level, and
• 1.2346 support level.

Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the direction of the trend, and the price is breaking this pattern to above for the bullish trend to be resumed if 1.2581 level is broken to above on close daily bar. 

"Recent GBP/USD action is consistent with a range but perhaps within a new trend (higher). The area around 1.2400 (55 day average, former highs and lows) should still be watched for support. Weakness below (daily close) would put the year open at 1.2278 back on the map. Daily highs from late January cluster around 1.2600 and is where I’d watch for near term resistance."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 0.7731 resistance level to below for the bullish ranging to be started within narrow s/r levels.

If the price breaks 0.7503 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the rice movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 0.7731 resistance level to above on daily bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels. 

• "The Australian Dollar vaulted to a three-month high after a languishing in a choppy range the against its US counterpartfor nearly two weeks. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum and hints a turn downward may be brewing ahead."
• "A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7685 opens the door for a retest of the February 7 low at 0.7606. Alternatively, a push above the 0.7733-60 area (23.6% Fib, double top) sees the next upside barrier at 0.7811, the 38.2% expansion."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 59 pips range price movement

2017-02-17 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

• past data is -2.1%
• forecast data is 1.0%
• actual data is -0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

• "In January 2017, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have increased by 1.5% compared with January 2016, the lowest growth since November 2013."
• "Month-on-month the quantity bought is estimated to have fallen by 0.3%."

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GBP/USD M5: 59 pips range price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event