Press review - page 479

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/JPY Intra-Day Technical Analysis: bullish with 143.14 key resistance level (based on the article)

H4 price is on bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud. The price is on testing resisance level at 143.14 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging.

• "This developed into a drop of over 1,200 pips in the following month, and this led to many questions around the sustainability of the up-trend in GBP/JPY. But after catching support at the vaulted 50% level of that most recent major move (taking the post-Flash Crash low up to the December high), hope was restored that bulls may be able to re-take control of GBP/JPY price action. In our last article, we marked the level at 142.50 as significant, as this is 50% of the retracement move as well as being a psychological level. The fact that we were able to drive over this level indicates that bull may be able to continue driving prices higher, and this opens the door for bullish strategies."
• "Given recent technical structure, there are three significant areas of price action swings for traders to investigate for support variable and stop placement, each outlined on the chart below. For traders looking at aggressive entries, a batch of support around the prior swing of 141.70 could be usable. For those looking to give the entry a little more ‘room to work,’ the zone around 140.75 looks more operable. And for those that want a conservative approach, the back of support around 139.00 could be attractive as this could get risk levels below the significant psychological level of 140.00."

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging breakout; daily ranging within bullish continuation resistance and bearish reversal support

2017-01-25 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 2.3M
• forecast data is 1.5M
• actual data is 2.8M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging breakout. The price was bounced from 54.73 support level for crossing 200 SMA to above for the reversal from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition. Price was stopped by 55.62 resistance level on the way to the bullish trend to be continuing, and if the price beraks this level on close bar so the bullish breakout will be resumed, otherwise - ranging.

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Crude Oil Daily: daily ranging within bullish continuation resistance and bearish reversal support. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud with the ranging within 57.23 resistance level and 53.56 support level. descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the correction to be started, and Absolute Strength indicatior is forecasting the future possible price movement ans the correction to bearish reversal for example.

If daily price breaks 57.23 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.56 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day - 'given the current inflation data, we will probably have to live with the low interest rate until further notice' (based on the article)

H4 price is above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.0774 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 1.0710 support level located on the border of the secondary correction to be started.

Trend Strength indicator is forecasting the trend as the secondary correction, and descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the correction as well. But Chinkou Span line together with Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the future trend as the ranging within the primary bullish market condition waiting for direction of the strong trend to be started.

• "The European Central Bank must give up its expansionary stance as soon as euro area inflation moves closer to its 2 percent target as the favorable effects of the stimulus measures are fading fast, but as of now low interest rates are set to remain for some time more, Bundesbank Executive Board member Andreas Dombret said Wednesday."
• "There is, therefore, no question that monetary policy must be normalized as soon as it become clear that the inflation rate will reach the stability range of just below 2 percent on a sustainable basis."
  
• "The desired effects of expansive monetary policy are diminishing with increasing pace, while unwanted side effects are rising...in particular the risk that the liquidity on the markets leads to the development of financial market bubbles."
  

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Consumer Price Index and 52 pips range price movement

2017-01-25 21:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

• "The consumers price index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent (up 0.7 with seasonal adjustment)."
• "Transport prices rose 3.7 percent, influenced by higher petrol and air transport prices."

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NZD/USD M5: 52 pips range price movement by NZ Consumer Price Index Index news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. GDP First Estimate and 40 pips range price movement

2017-01-26 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

• "UK gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have increased by 0.6% during Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016, the same rate of growth as in the previous 2 quarters."

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GBP/USD M5: 40 pips range price movement by U.K. GDP First Estimate news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

CAC 40: intra-day breakdown with the bearish reversal; daily ranging bullish; fumdanetal news are the key (based on the article)

H4 price was bounced from 4,901 resistance level to below for the good trading breakdown: the price broke Ichimoku cloud together with Senkou Span lines to below for the reversal to the primary bearish market condition. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to the direction of the trend to be started, and Chinkou Span line is indicating the ranging condition to be resumed in the near future for example.

• "CAC 40 continues to move higher for Thursdays trading (+0.03%), after bouncing from yearly lows earlier in the week. If today’s session closes higher, it would mark the third consecutive daily rally for the Index after finding support above 4,800.00 on Monday. Top winners for the CAC 40 include Nokia (+3.28%) and Pernod Ricard (+2.34%). Today’s top losses for the CAC 40 include Saint-Gobain (-1.34%) and Airbus (-1.16%)."
• "Technically the CAC 40 is rebounding off of support found at the weekly low, but the Index has yet to breakout to new significant 2017 highs. Before the Index can continue to rally, the CAC 40 must next break through the psychological 4,900.00 level. This level was tested earlier this morning, but prices were quickly rejected here. If the CAC 40 fails to breakout higher, it may suggest a change in market momentum and open prices to retest the 2017 low."

D1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart with the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 4,930 resistance located far above Senkou Span lines in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 4,797 support level located on the border between the ranging bullish and the secondary cortrection to be started.

The most likely scenario for the daily price movement in January and in the first half of February this year is the following: the price will be on bullish ranging within 5,000/4,700 levels waiting for the direction of the big trend movement with good volatility for example.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD - ranging around 200-day SMA waiting for the direction of the trend (based on the article)

Daily price was on breakout with the bullish reversal: price broke 200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bullish area of the chart, and it was bounced from 0.7608 resistance level to below for the ranging condition to be started with the waiting for the direction of the trend.

• "The Australian Dollarhas broken through the floor of the rising trend guiding prices higher since the beginning of the year, hinting that the long-term down trend is resuming. The breakdown occurred against a backdrop of negative RSI divergence, bolstering the case for a topping scenario."
• "Initial support is in the 0.7463-98 area (horizontal pivot, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7373. Alternatively, a reversal above the January 24 high at 0.7609 sees the next major upside barrier at 0.7760, a double top."
• "Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, an entry order to sell the pair at 0.7572 has been established. If activated the trade will initially target 0.7498 and carry a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 0.7609."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and Bitcoin/USD: U.S. Advance GDP

2017-01-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 3.5%
• forecast data is 2.1%
• actual data is 1.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

• "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent."

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EUR/USD M5: 44 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance GDP news events

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USD/CNH M5: 126 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance GDP news events

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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance GDP news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Google - ranging to correction (based on the article)

Google shares: located above 200 SMA/100 SMA reversal levels in the bullish area of the chart. The price was on ranging within 837 resistance level and 826 support level. The price is on testing support level at 826 to below for the secondary correction to be started with 820 nearest target.

• "After the close of trading last night, Google reported results for its quarter that ended in December came in well ahead of revenue estimates, but "missed" on the bottom-line. The company reported revenues of  $26.1 billion, up 22% year on year or 24% on a constant currency basis. Revenues of $26.04 billion beat consensus of $25.2 billion by roughly $840 million. However, Street consensus for earnings for Q4:16 was $9.67 per share and Google reported $9.36 per share."
• "First and foremost, the company said that in the December quarter they did not buyback even one measly share of stock, citing some vague "quiet period" excuse, despite the stock getting beat down to a low of $735 per share intra-quarter."
• "The company spent $3.7 billion in share buybacks in 2016, but the share count for the year actually increased by 3.2 million shares to 700 million thanks to the 17% increase in headcount last year."
• "After the results were out last night, shares of Google were lower by about 3% and at the moment (early pre-market) are indicated lower by roughly 2%. The percentage indicated lower is not meaningful enough if one is just long stock however the point is that this "miss" could have been easily prevented had Google management just spend a little more on the share buybacks and a little less on its other bets."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, January 29 - February 05 (based on the article)

The US dollar was mixed in Trump’s first week in office. Rate decisions in Japan, the US and the UK, GDP data in Canada and the buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday promise a busy week. These are the main events on forex calendar.

1. Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy in its December meeting amid modest pace of growth. The decision was in line with market forecast.
2. Canadian GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. The Canadian economy is expected to grow by 0.3% in November.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. A score of 112.6 is on the cards now.
4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. A gain of 165K private sector jobs is expected for January.
5. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. A score of 55 points is likely for January.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. 
7. US FOMC Rate Statement: Wednesday, 19:00. The Federal Reserve decided to raise its benchmark interest rate in December as widely anticipated. Federal funds rate was increased by 25 basis points, to a range of 0.50 to 0.75%. This was the second rate hike in a decade. Economists expect these steps will spur economic growth and inflation while supporting company earnings.
8. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25% but warned that higher inflation and slower wage growth will weigh in household budgets in 2017. In addition to the rate statement and the accompanying meeting minutes, the BOE also publishes its quarterly inflation report.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Economists expected claims to reach 247,000. A level of 251K is predicted now.
10. US Non-Farm Payrolls report: Friday, 13:30. In January, 170K are estimated. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.7%.
11. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. A score of 57 points is on the cards.