Press review - page 475

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "CAD currently sits as one of the strongest currencies in G10FX alongside AUD that is working on its third weekly advance and NZD with a ~2.5% weekly appreciation. Given the commodity dollar-bloc strength, it’s fair to think that the momentum could continue, which would likely translate further into both technical and fundamental favor likely leading to further CAD strength. Thursday’s USD/CAD move brought the lowest price since October, and the previously mentioned momentum would favor continuation without a USD/CAD close above Wednesday’s high of 1.3293."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead to next week, traders will be eyeing inflation data out of the US with the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) slated for Wednesday. Consensus estimates are calling for an uptick in the headline print to 2.1% y/y from 1.7% y/y, with Core CPI (ex food & energy) widely expected to hold at 2.1% y/y. Look for stronger inflation data to stoke interest rate expectations on a beat with such a scenario likely to cap gold advances in the near-term. Note that Fed Fund Futures have seen a slight uptick across the board with markets now pricing a 70% probability for a June rate hike."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "Next week, Chinese President Xi will attend Davos’ Forum as the first Chinese president. When there is a major national event for China, Yuan volatility tends to drop, such as what was seen during the G20 meetings in China last September. Also, at the Davos’ meeting, President Xi may address major Chinese policies as well as comment on China’s global role, both worth keeping an eye on. Currently, the USD/CNH is waiting for justifications for a new trend; China’s economic outlook and policy in 2017 may provide more clues."

[Sergey Golubev]

Time to sell Yahoo and buy Alibaba directly instead? (based on the article)

• "Yahoo announced last week that it would be changing its name to Alibaba (upon completion of Verizon acquiring core Yahoo) seemingly to reflect the investment in Chinese giant Alibaba. However, the name change will only take effect if and only if Verizon goes through with the planned acquisition of core Yahoo."
• "However, the question for existing shareholders is whether, even with a few modification (assuming a lower price), is Yahoo still worth staying invested in at current levels."

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The weekly share prices for Yahoo and Alibaba are having similar situation with the poerformance: the prices are located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart with the bullish trend to be resumed after the secondary correction which was started in September last year.

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Yahoo 

If W1 price breaks 38.24 support level to below on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If weekly price breaks 61.8% Fibo level at 42.36 to above on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing with 44.91 target.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging condition within with levels.

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Alibaba

If W1 price breaks 86.01 support level to below on close bar so  the bearish reversal will be started.
If weekly price breaks 50.0% Fibo level at 97.93 to above on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing with 109.76 target.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging condition within with levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

3 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week (based on the article)

• "Stocks posted another week of gains last week. And even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average never cracked the 20,000 point level, it and the S&P 500 index ticked higher to keep firmly in rally mode."

Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily Chart: the price is testing 19,999 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.

 

S&P 500, Daily Chart: the price is testing 2,282 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. 

• "The week ahead could bring big portfolio swings for shareholders of Netflix, CSX, and General Electric, as the companies will post highly anticipated earnings announcements over the next few trading days."

Netflix, D1 Chart: daily share price is on bullish breakout for the testing resistance level at 133.87 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing:

 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Dwelling Finance Commitment and 16 pips range price movement

2017-01-17 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Home Loans]

• past data is -0.6%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Home Loans] = Change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes.

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From rttnews article:

• "The total number of new home loans in Australia issued in November climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent on month, the Australian Bureau said on Tuesday - standing at 54,603."

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AUD/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by Australian Dwelling Finance Commitment news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Hong Kong Stock Market Called Lower On Tuesday (based on the article)

• "The Hong Kong stock market has finished lower in two of three trading days since the end of the five-day winning streak in which it had advanced almost 800 points or 3.8 percent. The Hang Seng Index now rests just beneath the 22,720-point plateau, and the market may open under pressure again on Tuesday."
• "The Hang Seng finished sharply lower on Monday following losses from the financials, oil companies and property stocks."
• "For the day, the index tumbled 219.23 points or 0.96 percent to finish at 22,718.15 after trading between 22,657.35 and 22,908.86."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and 72 pips range price movement

2017-01-17 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

• past data is 1.2%
• forecast data is 1.4%
• actual data is 1.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

• "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.6% in the year to December 2016, compared with a 1.2% rise in the year to November."
• "The rate in December was the highest since July 2014, when it was also 1.6%."
• "The main contributors to the increase in the rate were rises in air fares and the price of food, along with prices for motor fuels, which fell by less than they did a year ago."

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GBP/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

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FTSE 100 Index, M5: pips range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Prime Minister May Speaks and 122 pips range price movement

2017-01-17 11:45 GMT | [GBP - Prime Minister May Speak]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[GBP - Prime Minister May Speak] =  The Speech about details of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, in London.

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From telegraph article: Pound spikes above $1.22 and FTSE 100 falters as Theresa May promises parliament vote on Brexit

 

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GBP/USD M5: 122 pips range price movement by Prime Minister May Speech news event

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FTSE 100 Index, M5: pips range price movement by Prime Minister May Speech news event

[James Cater]

This from China is quite interesting