Press review - page 457

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "In the week ahead we’ll watch any especially-large surprises out of the coming week’s release of Japanese Consumer Price Inflation figures will otherwise drive JPY volatility. Traders have shown relatively little sensitivity to Japanese economic data, however; rhetoric from the BoJ matters far more than a single economic print."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "Fed Funds Futures are now pricing a 95% probability for a year-end move as the central bank argues ‘the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,’ and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes due out next week may reinforce the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as Janet Yellen and Co. appear to be following a similar path to 2015. With that said, a hawkish policy statement paired with a rebound in Durable Goods Orders may act as positive catalysts for the dollar, and GBP/USD may revisit the opening monthly range as the near-term recovery loses momentum. Keep in mind that the major currencies are vulnerable to thin market conditions as U.S. traders go offline for the Thanksgiving holiday."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The evolution of this narrative is likely to remain in focus for financial markets in the week ahead. On one hand, established momentum should find few barriers to disrupt continuation. Fed Funds futures put the probability of a Fed rate hike in December at 98 percent, meaning it is all but priced in. Comments from central bank officials over the past week repeatedly suggested that the specifics of any on-coming fiscal boost will be formative to the direction of policy next year. This means that the release of minutes from November’s FOMC meeting and a steady stream of US activity data is unlikely to materially alter the landscape (durable goods orders and home sales figures as well as the PMI survey roundup are on tap). The Australian data docket is close to empty."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)

NZD/USD - "The New Zealand Dollar has continued to show steady appreciation on the crosses as economic data is supportive, yet the kiwi remains susceptible to weakness continuing against the USD and possible the JPY should a risk shock take place."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "For the week ahead, Canadian data is relatively light as the U.S. goes on holiday on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Wholesale Sales are released on Monday, and Retail Sales on Tuesday in which a contraction of -.1% is expected. Perhaps more interesting in the immediate-future is how the Canadian Dollar responds to long-term support values (resistance on USD/CAD). The 1.3450-1.3550 zone has been a critical level in USD/CAD for a long time, providing a strong element of support in the mid-1990’s and, more recently as resistance in September of 2015 and then again over the past three weeks."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "Yuan’s onshore borrowing costs have been moving closely along with Dollar/Yuan rates since October. We discussed that a weaker Yuan reduces onshore Yuan supply through purchasing foreign currencies, and therefore, increases the funding costs of the onshore Yuan (and vice-versa). The overnight borrowing cost in Shanghai interbank market (SHIBOR O/N) began to pick up in the mid-October following the Dollar/Yuan rally. Despite that the Central Bank injected a net of 95.5 billion Yuan liquidity in the week of October 17th to 21st and a net of 595 billion Yuan in the week of October 24th to 28th, the tightened condition was not eased much. In the following week, as the Yuan pulled back against the Dollar, the SHIBOR O/N dropped as well. The benchmark rate fell to its lowest level in a month on November 9th when Donald Trump surprisingly took the win in the U.S. presidential election. However, as the Yuan resumed losses against the Dollar, the borrowing costs picked up again. Over the past week, the PBOC added a net of 425 billion Yuan cash into the interbank market but did not stop the rally in SHIBOR. Continued Yuan weakness may further dampen China’s domestic liquidity condition."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead to the shortened holiday week, traders will be eyeing the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday for further confirmation that the central bank will move to raise rates next month. Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in a 98% likelihood the Fed will hike with the focus now shifting to the pace and scope of subsequent hikes moving into 2017. Expectations for higher rates, a strengthening U.S. Dollar and tumbling bond prices (increase in yields) are likely to curb demand for non-yielding assets like gold. That said, prices are closing the week just above key confluence support which could put a near-term floor on the battered metal."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance and 28 pips range price movement

2016-11-20 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

• past data is 0.36T
• forecast data is 0.41T
• actual data is 0.47T according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From forexlive article: Japan Trade balance for October: Y496.2bn (expected Y610bn)

Trade balance for October Y 496.2bn

• expected Y 610bn, prior was Y 497.6bn

Trade balance (adjusted): Y 474.3bn

• expected Y 403.3bn, prior was Y 349.0bn

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USD/JPY M5: 28 pips price movement by Japan Trade Balance news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 13 pips range price movement

2016-11-21 16:20 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech about the European Central Bank's Annual Report before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg.

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From official report:

• "Beyond the relevance of the ECB’s monetary policy, an important contributing factor has been the more robust financial sector which has emerged from the financial crisis."
• "The decision to address the mistakes of the pre-crisis era through ambitious regulatory reforms is thus paying off. It has resulted in a European financial sector that is now stronger in terms of capital, leverage, funding and risk-taking. For example, Common Equity Tier 1 ratios in the euro area have improved substantially, rising from less than 7% for significant banking groups in 2008 to more than 14% today."
• "Supported by our monetary policy, the recovery is sustaining its momentum. We also expect headline inflation to continue rising over the coming months. At the same time, we are not seeing a consistent strengthening of underlying price dynamics. Much of the expected increase will be driven by statistical factors related to the stabilisation of oil prices."
  

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EUR/USD M5: 13 pips price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil: intra-day bullish breakout (adapted from the article)

H4 oil price is on bullish market condition with the breakout by the 49.93 resistance level to be broken for the intra-day bullish breakout to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 46.73 support level to below on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.

• "Volatility is anticipated to be high regardless of OPEC’s outcome whether they cut the production of Oil, and set a cap on production for the first time in eight years or whether they continue to produce at well. Recent comments from the Iranian Oil Minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganesh, have increased confidence following Russian Oil Minister’s comments last week about a highly probable deal coming to pass."
• "In addition to the encouraging comments about a, “highly probable” outcome for a production cut, the Options Market has shown high anticipation in the Oil Market. Open interest, which measures both long and short exposure in the Oil market ahead of the Vienna OPEC meeting is at its highest levels since 2007 as per the U.S. CFTC. Additionally, we’ve seen a record number of call volume, which is less of a commitment than outright longs while outright shorts in the Brent Oil have reached their highest level in more than two years." 
• "The aggressive positioning helps to show that the price-risk may favor the upside given the calls would be exercised and the aggressive short positioning would be unwound. However, a failure to fulfill the agreement in September to cut collective output from 34 million to 32.5-33 million will no doubt see the price under pressure, and some wondering if a move toward a $30-handle is underway." 

Daily price is breaking Ichimoku cloud on open bar for now for the possible bullish reversal. If the price breaks 61.8% Fibo level at 50 to above so the reversal of the daily price movement will be started, otherwise - ranging to be inside the cloud.

 

Most likely scenario: the price will be bounced from 50.0/61.8 resistance level to below for the ranging condition to be started.