Press review - page 412

[Mirko Cerulli]

The Story of Britain's Biggest Insider-Trading Trial

“If everyone told the truth, the stock market would not move”

(Source: Bloomberg)

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: bearish breakdown

H4 price is on bearish condition with the secondary ranging: the price is located below 200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart with the ranging within 1.1426 "bullish reversal" resistance level and 1.0911 "bearish continuation" level.

If the price breaks 1.1426 level to above so the intra-day bullish reversal will be started, and if the price breaks 1.0911 level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing.

Daily price broke 200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish condition. Symmetric triangle pattern was broken to below with 1.0911 level to be tested for the bearish trend to be continuing in the near future.

United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD price to be on bearish market condition with 1.0820 target:
"There is no change to the bearish EUR view; the current movement is viewed as a short-term consolidation phase which should lead to further EUR weakness towards 1.0820 in the coming days."

• If daily price will break 1.0911 support on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
• If daily price will break 1.1426 resistance on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for NZD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

NZD/USD: intra-day ranging bullish; daily correction to be started

H4 price is on bullish market condition for the ranging within 0.7289 resistance and 0.6970 support levels. The Brexit breakdown dropped the price to 0.6970 bearish reversal level with the price to be started for the ranging near 200 SMA revesal area.

If the price breaks 0.7289 level to above so the intra-day bullish trend will be continuing, and if the price breaks 0.6970 level to below so the bearish reversal will be started.

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish condition: the price is testing 0.6970 support level to below for the correction to be continuing.

United Overseas Bank is considering the NZD/USD price to be on ranging within 0.6975/0.7170 levels:
"The pull-back from last Friday’s 0.7305 high is picking up momentum but only a clear break below 0.6975 would indicate that NZD is ready to head lower towards 0.6920 and beyond. In the meanwhile, we hold a neutral view but unless this pair can reclaim 0.7170, the downside risk would continue to increase."

• If daily price will break 0.6970 support on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be continuing.
• If daily price will break 0.6674 support on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
• If daily price will break 0.7289 resistance on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for AUD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

AUD/USD: ranging within narrow s/r levels for direction

H4 price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.
If the price breaks 0.7422 resistance level to above so the intra-day bullish trend will be resumed, and if the price breaks 0.7304 support to below so the bearish reversal will be started.

Daily price is on ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA area within 0.7642 "bullish continuation" resistance level and 0.7304 "bearish reversal" support level. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the daily price to be crossed to below for the bearish reversal to be started.

United Overseas Bank is considering the AUD/USD price to be on ranging within 0.7305/0.7510 levels:
"While the pull-back from last Friday’s 0.7650 peak is picking up momentum, only a drop below 0.7305 support would indicate a sustained AUD weakness in the coming days. For now, we hold a neutral view and expect this pair to trade within 0.7305/0.7510 range. That said, downward pressure would continue to increase unless there is a move back above 0.7510 within these few days."

• If daily price will break 0.7304 support on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started with 0.7144 level as a nearest target.
• If daily price will break 0.7642 resistance on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Brexit - how will central banks respond? (based on the article)

Bank of England
"Some believe rates could be cut as early as next week, however others think the BoE will wait."

US Federal Reserve
"The US Federal Reserve began the year expecting to raise interest rates at least four times. The bond market expects no tightening this year and as a result of Brexit has begun to price in a small chance of an easing for 2016. The US two-year note yield has fallen to about 0.60 per cent, a level seen last October, before the Fed’s first tightening of policy for the current cycle. The recent dollar appreciation “represents in itself a form of monetary tightening and consequently the need for [the] Fed to raise rates has been pushed out further."

European Central Bank
"Mr Draghi is expected to cut interest rates further, or could expand QE in value or scope. However, his calls for structural reform are difficult as governments do not have strong mandates and many eurozone countries are facing elections."

Bank of Japan
"Brexit has fuelled expectations the BoJ will ease policy at its meeting in late July. They could cut negative interest rates further or apply them more broadly, but since being introduced in January, the BoJ’s Nirp has hurt banks - share prices are down more than a third this year. Expanding the massive and complex QE programme is another option."

People’s Bank of China
"The PBoC reacted to Brexit by adjusting the renminbi fix rate on Monday by the most since 2010 - a big move which "if done in isolation would have freaked markets out. They want the market to determine the exchange rate on a managed basis because they don’t want the outflows to become acute", says Geoff Yu of UBS Asset Management."

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish breakout; ranging bullish on daily

2016-05-29 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -0.9M
• forecast data is -2.3M
• actual data is -4.1M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.1 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: intra-day bullish breakout. The price broke 100 SMA to above on Pending Home Sales news event to be reversed from the ranging bullish market condition to the primary bullish. The price is started with the bullish breakout immediate after Crude Oil Inventories news event with 49.73 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 49.73 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing on this timeframe.
If the price breaks 48.88 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging within 52.82/46.67 levels. The price is located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging/reversal area in the bullish area of the chart: price is on ranging within 52.82 resistance level and 46.67 support level.

If the price breaks 52.82 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
if the price breaks 46.67 support level on close daily bar so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: Canadian GDP (adapted from the article)

2016-06-30 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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There are 5 possible scenarios related to this news events

1. "Within expectations. In such a scenario, USD/CAD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher."
2. "Above expectations: 0.5% to 0.9%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair below one support line."
3. "Well above expectations: Above 0.9%: An unexpected surge by the indicator would likely push USD/CAD downwards, and a second support level might be broken as a result."
4. "Below expectations: -0.7% to -0.3%:  A weak reading could cause the pair to climb and break one level of resistance."
5. "Well below expectations: Below -0.7%. A strong contraction in economic growth would likely hurt the loonie and USD/CAD could break above a second resistance level."

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USD/CAD H4: correction to be started within the primary bullish. The price is on the secondary correction which is started on open H4 bar for now by 1.2973 support level to be broken to below with Chinkou Span line to be ready to break the price for good possible breakdown.

If the price breaks 1.2973 support level to below on close H4 bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish condition will be started.
If the price breaks Senkou Span line at 1.2887 on close H4 bar so we may see the bearish reversal to be started on this timeframe.
If the price breaks 1.3107 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be continuing with the ranging bullish trend within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

How to Trade - Forex Leverage (based on the article)

Leverage in forex is expressed as ratios - for example as the following: 1:1, 1:50, 1:100, 1:200, 1:400.

Leverage in forex = Purchase Power/Capital Invested = $100,000/$1,000 = 100

This leverage ratio of 1:100 is translated as following:

For every $1 I deposit in my forex broker's account, my broker in return deposits $100 in my margin account. So, if I deposit $1000 then my broker deposits $100,000 in my trading account. So with just $1000 of my own money, I can control $100,000 for my trading purposes. By doing so I created a leverage in forex.

"Leverage has been in use from the early dawn of our civilization primarily to cope up with daily necessities. In the medieval era leverage was employed probably just to lift heavy stones to build houses. But in the modern era leverage has been used extensively in finance and commerce. When I am buying one million dollar house with only 10% down payment, I am essentially using leverage. Leverage adds glamor to forex trading. It is what makes so many traders gravitate to forex trading as compared to equities and other securities market."

"Hence, leverage in forex is the secret behind huge wind fall profits in forex trading. Be that as it may, leverage can magnify losses in losing trades. This is also why leverage is considered double edged sword. If I make winning trades using leverage then my profits are huge. Likewise if I make losing trades my losses are also huge."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Recovers But Still Far From Pre-Brexit Levels (based on the article)

• "The Canadian dollar advanced against the U.S. dollar as Brexit fears that triggered a sell off have abated. There has been little in way of economic indicators to drive the market and official comments from policy makers has been limited and obtuse as usual. One thing is clear the potential exit by the U.K. from the European Union is not to be a quickie divorce. There is still a high number of conversations between E.U. leaders and a political mess back in the U.K. to deal with. The Canadian dollar got a boost from crude and gold with both rising against the USD."
• "The USD/CAD lost 0.52 percent in the least 24 hours. The pair is trading at 1.2985. The Loonie benefited from Brexit fears subsiding as the road ahead for a possible UK exit will be a long one. The Canadian dollar got support from commodities. Oil prices rose more than 3 percent and Gold eked out a 0.74 percent gain despite fewer investors seeking the safety of the yellow metal. Uncertainties remains and that will continue to keep gold bid, but for the time being and with little economic data the market has restored value to those assets hit by the post Brexit shock."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canadian GDP and 18 pips range price movement

2016-06-30 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is 1.2%
• forecast data is 1.4%
• actual data is 1.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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• "After decreasing in February and March, real gross domestic product edged up 0.1% in April. Widespread gains, notably in manufacturing, utilities and the public sector, were largely offset by a significant decline in non-conventional oil extraction."
• "Service-producing industries rose 0.2% in April, after being essentially unchanged in March. Notable gains were posted by the public sector (education, health and public administration combined), the finance and insurance sector, and wholesale and retail trade. In contrast, the arts, entertainment and recreation sector notably declined."
• "The output of goods-producing industries edged down 0.1% in April, mainly as a result of a decrease in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Manufacturing and utilities posted notable increases, while the agriculture and forestry sector was down."

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USD/CAD M5: 18 pips range price movement by Canadian GDP news event :