Press review - page 364

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - BOE Governor Mark Carney speaks and 25 pips price movement

2016-01-12 14:15 GMT | [GBP - BOE Governor Mark Carney speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[GBP - BOE Governor Mark Carney speaks] = Discussion titled "Legacy for Business Models and Financial Stability" at the Farewell Symposium for Christian Noyer, in Paris. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

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GBPUSD M5: 25 pips price movement by GBP - BOE Governor Mark Carney speaks :

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

How to Start with Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2014.12.20 08:14

What is an Inside bar? (based on dailyfx article)

Inside bars are easily identified pricing patterns that can be found on virtually any chart. The pattern itself requires some simple technical analysis, which includes identifying a series of highs and lows on a daily chart. The idea is that the current candle on the graph will not exceed the previous candles high or low, thus leaving it “inside”.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly bearish ranging below 50.0% Fibo resistance level (adapted from the article)

Weekly price is located below 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition:

• The price is on bearish ranging within 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1119.33 and Fibo support level at 1046.23.
  
• Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bearish trend to be continuing.
  
• "After bursting up to a new higher-high of $1,113.03 after NFP last Friday, prices have been pulling back. That pullback may have just found support at that same level of prior resistance, and when a level is relevant in a market this will often happen. This is a simple, but often effective price action tell, and traders can look at this as a chance to play the top-side of Gold with a risk-defined play."
• "Traders can look to play the continued reversal in Gold by lodging stops below support; the distance of which should be determined by how aggressively you want to treat the move. The more aggressive setup would be placing a stop below today’s low at $1,083.32. Slightly more conservative would be taking that stop below the nearest psychological level at $1,080. And even more conservative than that would be placing the stop below the prior July 2015 low at $1,071.28. On the top-side, that previous high at $1,113 becomes a level of interest, especially for aggressive stops."
  

Resistance	Support
1119.33	1046.23
1191.26	N/A

If the price will break Fibo support level at 1046.23 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1119.33 from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1191.26 from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close W1 price to break 1119.33 for possible buy trade with 1191.26 target to re-enter
  
• Recommendation to go short: watch W1 price to break 1046.23 support level for possible sell trade
  
• Trading Summary: ranging
  

Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - China CGAC Trade Balance and 67 pips price movement for majors

2016-01-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - CGAC Trade Balance]

• past data is 343B
• forecast data is 339B
• actual data is 382B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CGAC Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. Export demand/currency demand are directly linked with each other: foreigners buy the domestic currency to pay for the exports.

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EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :

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GBPUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :

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USDJPY M5: 31 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :

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USDCHF M5: 11 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Employment Change and 37 pips range price movement

2016-01-14 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 74.9K
• forecast data is -11.0K
• actual data is -1.0K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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• Employment increased to 11,893,800.
• Unemployment decreased to 734,300.
• Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.8%.
• Participation rate increased less than 0.1 pts to 65.2%.
• Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 2.8 million hours to 1,649.9 million hours.

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AUDUSD M5: 37 pips range price movement by AUD - Employment Change news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

USDJPY Technical Analysis 2016, January 14: ranging bearish (adapted from the article)

D1 price is on primary bearish market condition:

• The price is located to be below Ichimoku cloud/kumo and Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish on the daily chart) for the bearish market condition.
  
• Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator which is indicating the primary bearish condition to be continuing.
  
• Chinkou Span line is below the price for the ranging bearish condition.
• "USDJPY weekly chart shows a bearish cloud cross. One of the important bearish signals we discussed in our 13 December report, Technical Advantage: USD/JPY shows signs of weakness, was the pending cross of the Ichimoku cloud. The cross occurred, and the cloud is officially in a bearish position. This happened with RSI breaking support and showing a bearish momentum."
• "USDJPY may trade down to the 100wk moving average and the bottom of the rising cloud at about 114-115.50. Given the triangle top, a measured move suggests 112 is even a possibility. A rise to the 50wk average and top of the cloud at about 120.75 would be a great place to go short, in our view."
  
• Nearest support levels are 117.22 and 116.13.
• Nearest resistance levels are 118.83 and 123.75.
  

If the price will break 117.22 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing with 116.13 target to re-enter.
If the price will break 118.83 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If the price will break 123.75 resistance level so the price will be fully reversed to the bullish market condition with good breakout possibility.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 118.83 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 117.22 support level for possible sell trade
  
• Trading Summary: bearish
  

Resistance	Support
118.83	117.22
123.75	116.13

SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : breakdown of support levels

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Official Bank Rate and 54 pips price movement

2016-01-14 12:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

• past data is 0.50%
• forecast data is 0.50%
• actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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"The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy in order to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 13 January 2016, the MPC voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%.  The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion, and so to re-invest the £8.4 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the January 2016 gilt held in the Asset Purchase Facility."

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GBPUSD M5: 54 pips price movement by GBP - Official Bank Rate news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

AUDIO - Gas, Oil and Gold… Oh My! (based on the article)

Solo on the show, Merlin welcomes a small live studio audience, who asks questions pertaining to the decline to oil. Merlin also focuses on listener questions and how to apply risk management techniques to current markets.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Core Retail Sales and 64 pips price movement

2016-01-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

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EURUSD M5: 64 pips price movement by USD - Core Retail Sales news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

What we’re watching (based on the article)

• USD - "Evidence of accelerating core inflation could help the USD but mainly against risk-correlated and commodity currencies."
  
• EUR - "ECB President Draghi may consider a more dovish rhetoric as part of next week’s press conference. This should keep the EUR a sell."
• GBP - "Next week’s labour and retail sales data should confirm constructive domestic conditions to the benefit of rate expectations, and the currency."
  
• CAD - "Even if the BoC were to refrain from easing monetary policy further as soon as next week, they should consider a dovish rhetoric. This should prove sufficient in keeping the CAD a sell on rallies."
• NZD - "Any better than expected inflation data is likely to prove an opportunity to sell the NZD anew."