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BNP Paribas: 2 Things To Look For At FOMC Minutes (based on efxnews article)
Chair Yellen is not speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium this year:
Time To Turn Bullish On EUR - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)
EUR will be on bullish, and the main reason for CS to decide it is the still-high risk that the ECB may have to re-enter the easing fray down the line:
"For example, as Exhibit 2 shows, European inflation breakevens have also been falling recently. With the ECB's credibility is on the line as it proceeds with its QE program, it is hard to imagine it standing pat for long and allowing sustained EUR strength to provide a fresh reason for these indicators to push still lower."
By the way - EUR/USD was already turned to bullish in intra-day basis:
Technical Forecast For EUR/USD and NZD/USD by UBS Group (based on efxnews article)
UBS Group AG made technical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD. This technical forecast may be valid for today and tomorrow and related to the trading strategies which aee using UBS itself for example.
EUR/USD: "We recommend playing a cautious long for a test of the higher end of recent range of 1.0800-1.1200." As we see from the chart - this long is already going on with 1.1461 as a final bullish target for the end of the week. By the way, the more real intra-day target is 1.1213 which is intermediate resistance on the way to the bullish breakout for example.
NZD/USD: "Look to establish fresh shorts between 0.6640 and 0.6750, with a stop above 0.6825, targeting a test of the low from earlier this month." To say it shorter - UBS are waiting for the price to be between 0.6640 and 0.6750 to open sell trade with stop loss above 0.6825. The real targets in this case may be the following: 0.6496 and 0.6466. By the way, this NZD/USD forecasting is more intra-day one than daily technicals: as we see from the chart - the price is breaking symmetric triangle pattern from below to above to go to 0.6648 where we can place a sell order from.
The Case For Tactical EUR Rally; Where To Target? - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
Ongoing EUR rally projecting its potential target in the near-term along with its year-end target for the pair:
Gold Climbs to Six-And-A-Half-Week High (based on wsj article)
"An unexpected rally in gold prices that was sparked by yuan’s devaluation last week gathered pace, propelling the precious metal to a six-and-a-half week-high on Friday. Gold breached the near-term resistance level of $1,150 per troy ounce, showing the price rally has taken a firmer hold of markets than was being earlier anticipated. Spot gold rose 1.25% from the opening price to an intra-day high of $1,168.32/oz, the highest level since July 3. It is currently trading at $1,164.3/oz."
Forex Weekly Outlook August 24-28 (based on forexcrunch article)
The US dollar suffered in a week that saw doom and gloom in global markets. Will this continue? German Ifo Business Climate, US CB Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders and GDP data from the US and the UK are the main highlights in Forex calendar. Join us as we explore the market-movers for this week.
The Federal Reserve released its July meeting minutes, revealing a dispute over the rate hike timing. Despite clear signals from some Fed officials calling for a rate rise in September, many policy makers still believe such a move is premature. In her capacity as the chair and the leader, Janet Yellen will be the driving force behind September’s decision. Will we see a rate hike in September? The chances look more slim with growing worries about China and fresh political uncertainty about Greece. The euro is clearly positioned as a safe haven currency and enjoys the crisis, alongside the yen. Dollar longs are on the other end.
EUR - Fundamental Outlook for the Current Week by Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
Morgan Stanley is considering the this is a good time to be with EUR forecasting bullish for the next few weeks:
"We believe EUR is likely to outperform over the next few weeks. The risk-off environment is likely to drive repatriation flows, which should be EUR supportive. In addition, many risky holdings were funded in EUR, and the unwind of these positions should support EUR. With EUR not being used as funder in the near term, it should receive support from its current account surplus."
Let's evaluate this situation with technical points of vew:
Anyway, Morgan Stanley believes in bullish dollar so we will get the bearish EUR/USD at year-end anyway.EURUSD Forecasts by Danske Bank (based on efxnews article)
Danske Bank is forecasting the ranging market condition for EUR/USD up to August 2016: the price will be ranging between 100 day SMA and 200 day SMA within 1.10/1.13 support/resistance channel:
September'15
November'15
February'16
August'16
Thus, according to the Danske Bank - we should expect the bullish for daily EUR/USD only in the middle of the next year by the price to be turned to 1.15 which is located on the bullish area of daily chart.
Concerning weekly price for this pair so the price will be in total ranging condition within the primary bearish: all support/resistance levels (incl 1.25 'reversal' resistance level which is on the border between bearish and bullish on the weekly chart) are located on the bearish zone. So, Danske Bank expects for the EUR/USd to be in bearish market condition in long term situation for example.
FOMC will raise rates in March 2016 - Barclays (based on efxnews article)
Barclays Capital made a conclusion that Fed rate hike will be March 2016. Barclays explained that FOMC can raise rates in December 2015 but FOMC FOMC may push rate hike in Mrach because of volatility of the market.
- "Given the uncertainty around the current global outlook, the timing of the rate hike seems more uncertain than usual.
Should this episode of financial market volatility prove transitory,
the FOMC could raise rates in December. On the other hand, if the
volatility proves durable or reveals greater than expected weakness in
global activity, the FOMC may push the first rate hike beyond March."
- "We see a delay past mid-2016 as a relatively low probability at this point given
our views on US labor markets. The US has proven durable to shocks
emanating from emerging markets in the past, and we believe the current
bout of uncertainty to be less pronounced than the successive shocks
from developed economies that rocked global markets in 2008, 2010, and
2010."
By the way, some analytics note that changing the date for Fed rate hike will increase the market uncertainty and volatility will be increased.