Press review - page 670

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USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Overnight Rate and BOC Rate Statement

2020-03-27 13:00 GMT | [CAD - BoC Overnight Rate]

  • past data is 0.75%
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - BoC Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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From official report :

  • "The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank is playing an important complementary role in this effort. Its interest rate setting cushions the impact of the shocks by easing the cost of borrowing. Its efforts to maintain the functioning of the financial system are helping keep credit available to people and companies. The intent of our decision today is to support the financial system in its central role of providing credit in the economy, and to lay the foundation for the economy’s return to normalcy."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
  • www.mql5.com
Economic calendar includes most important economic indicators and events from ministries and agencies of different countries. The Calendar is useful for traders in the forex market, stock exchanges and other financial markets.
 

Nikkei 225 - bear market rally; 16,243 is the key for the bearish trend to be resumed (based on  the article)

Nikkei 225 price by Metatrader 5

Nikkei 225 price by Metatrader 5

  • "In the case of the Nikkei 225, an early barrier to a continuation higher may reside around the Fibonacci level at 20,365 which has given rise to price indecision in the past. While the zone is unlikely to make or break a stock rally on its own, its influence over price should not be ignored as it may present an attractive opportunity to reduce or increase exposure – depending on your directional bias."
  • "If bulls can retake the level confidently, subsequent resistance may come into play around the 200-day simple moving average but risks to the rally loom large as volatility rests at historic levels."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, Nikkei 225 Technical Forecasts
Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, Nikkei 225 Technical Forecasts
  • Peter Hanks
  • www.dailyfx.com
Global risk assets enjoyed notable gains last week, a recovery that is somewhat remarkable given the underlying fundamental developments. In any case, the Nasdaq 100 has outperformed the Dow Jones and S&P 500 in recent weeks and enjoys a stronger standing from a technical perspective as a result. Now, the tech-heavy index will have to surmount...
 

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2020-03-31 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 35.7
  • forecast data is 44.9
  • actual data is 52.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From cnbc article :

  • "China on Tuesday said the official Purchasing Manager’s Index for March was 52.0, beating expectations for an economy hit by the coronavirus outbreak." "Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the official PMI to come in at 45 for the month of March, from a record low of 35.7 a month earlier." "China’s manufacturing activity slowed dramatically earlier this year as the government instituted large-scale lockdowns and quarantines to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease, formally known as COVID-19."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
  • www.mql5.com
Economic calendar includes most important economic indicators and events from ministries and agencies of different countries. The Calendar is useful for traders in the forex market, stock exchanges and other financial markets.
 

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement  

2020-03-31 01:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

  • past data is -19.4
  • forecast data is -24.1
  • actual data is -63.5 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From roymorgan article :

  • "Confidence declined by 9.8% over the past week and is now at its lowest level since the inception of this survey in 1973. ‘Future financial conditions’ was the only subcomponent which was positive, gaining 0.6%. ‘Current financial conditions’ fell 16.1%. ‘Current economic conditions’ declined by 9.5%, following last week’s 37% decline. This is by far the weakest component of the survey. ‘Future economic conditions’ were a bit calmer, falling just 2.4%. ‘Time to buy a major household item’ fell the most over the past week, dropping by 23.8%. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ was up by 0.1ppt to 4.1%."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
  • www.mql5.com
Economic calendar includes most important economic indicators and events from ministries and agencies of different countries. The Calendar is useful for traders in the forex market, stock exchanges and other financial markets.
 

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2020-04-01 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 40.3
  • forecast data is 45.0
  • actual data is 50.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "The headline Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in March, up sharply from 40.3 in February, representing the largest monthly increase in the 16-year survey history. However, some caution needs to be applied in interpreting the PMI. The PMI measures the month-on-month change in business conditions, with a level of 50.0 representing the no change mark. The headline index therefore merely pointed to a stabilisation of operating conditions in the sector during March rather than a recovery. Coming on the heels of an unprecedented collapse in February, the marginal gain seen in March leaves the level of business activity remaining well below that seen in January."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
  • www.mql5.com
Economic calendar includes most important economic indicators and events from ministries and agencies of different countries. The Calendar is useful for traders in the forex market, stock exchanges and other financial markets.
 

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-04-01 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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From official report :

  • "Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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AUD/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

AUD/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
  • www.mql5.com
Economic calendar includes most important economic indicators and events from ministries and agencies of different countries. The Calendar is useful for traders in the forex market, stock exchanges and other financial markets.
 

Crude Oil - daily bear market rally to be started: 25 - 28 resistance level is the key for the rally to be continuing(based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil chart by Metatrader 5

WTI Crude Oil by Metatrader 5

  • "Talk last night that Russia and Saudi Arabia may declare a ceasefire in their recent output and price war was enough to send crude oil 7%-8% higher in a market dominated by sellers. While Wednesday’s percentage rise sounds impressive it pales into insignificance when compared to the 65%+ fall in crude in Q1 – over $40/bbl. - its worst quarterly performance in history. To help the oil market find a base, a truce between Russia and Saudi Arabia is essential, especially as global demand crumbles under the weight of the coronavirus pandemic. Friday’s US Labour report is now estimated by some to show millions of US workers joining the unemployment line."
  • "The daily oil chart shows little in the way of real support at the moment although the $20/bbl. area is providing a ‘big figure’ base of sorts. Small comfort can be taken from this week’s higher lows and sellers may stand to the side and wait for any news, with shorting at these extreme levels a very risk trade set-up. The March 25 high and the 20-dma cross at $25.70/bbl. and this may prove a secondary short-term target if $25.00/bbl. is taken out. In the longer-term, post-coronavirus hiatus, there is a big gap on the chart between $36.59/bbl. and $41.19/bbl. which needs filling."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Oil Price Outlook: Ravaged Oil Market Needs a Russia - Saudi Arabia Production Deal
Oil Price Outlook: Ravaged Oil Market Needs a Russia - Saudi Arabia Production Deal
  • Nick Cawley
  • www.dailyfx.com
Talk last night that Russia and Saudi Arabia may declare a ceasefire in their recent output and price war was enough to send crude oil 7%-8% higher in a market dominated by sellers. While Wednesday’s percentage rise sounds impressive it pales into insignificance when compared to the 65%+ fall in crude in Q1 – over $40/bbl. - its worst quarterly...
 

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-04-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

  • past data is 3307K
  • forecast data is 3600K
  • actual data is 6648K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From official report :

  • "In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,648,000, an increase of 3,341,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous week's level was revised up by 24,000 from 3,283,000 to 3,307,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,612,000, an increase of 1,607,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 6,000 from 998,250 to 1,004,250."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
  • www.mql5.com
Economic calendar includes most important economic indicators and events from ministries and agencies of different countries. The Calendar is useful for traders in the forex market, stock exchanges and other financial markets.
 

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, NZD/USD and Hang Seng Index (HSI): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-04-03 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 275K
  • forecast data is 163K
  • actual data is -701K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Hang Seng Index (HSI): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

Hang Seng Index (HSI): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
Economic calendar - real-time news and reports, as well as the schedule of forthcoming world economy events
  • www.mql5.com
Economic calendar includes most important economic indicators and events from ministries and agencies of different countries. The Calendar is useful for traders in the forex market, stock exchanges and other financial markets.
 

Crude Oil - daily bearish ranging within 21.64/36.11 support/resistance levels (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "In a world shifting towards virtual meetings, OPEC and their allies are joining the movement in hosting a virtual meeting on Monday to discuss production cuts."
  • "Oil prices put in a historically strong move this week, bouncing by as much as 50% on news that OPEC and their allies have agreed to discuss moderating production in the effort of buoying prices."
  • "Previously, Oil prices were in a hard sell-off both supply and demand concerns were pushing prices lower. The demand side of the equation still looks meager; but the supply part of the equation may get some help in the week ahead."

============

The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Oil Price Forecast: Extreme Volatility Ahead of Virtual OPEC Meeting
Oil Price Forecast: Extreme Volatility Ahead of Virtual OPEC Meeting
  • James Stanley
  • www.dailyfx.com
In a world shifting towards virtual meetings, OPEC and their allies are joining the movement in hosting a virtual meeting on Monday to discuss production cuts. Previously, Oil prices were in a hard sell-off both supply and demand concerns were pushing prices lower. The demand side of the equation still looks meager; but the supply part of the...
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