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Gold forecast for the week of February 16, 2015, Technical Analysis
The gold markets as you can see went back and forth during the course of the week, testing the $1220 level for support, and the $1250 level for resistance. Ultimately, it looks as if the market is trying to find its footing, and should go higher. If we can get above the top of the range for the week, we believe that the market should then head towards the $1500 level. On entering, we break down below the lows for the week, we will more than likely test the $1200 level next.
USD/JPY forecast for the week of February 16, 2015, Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair tried to break down during the course of the week, but struggled at the 120 handle. Ultimately, we ended up forming a shooting star, and it looks as if we are going to drop from here. However, we feel that the market is most certainly in an uptrend, and as a result we are actually going to wait for a supportive candle below in order to start buying. On the other hand, if we break above the top of the shooting star, we are buyers there as well.
GBP/USD forecast for the week of February 16, 2015, Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, and as a result the market looks as if it’s reaching for the 1.55 handle. That is an area that has a significant amount of resistance, and as a result we are actually looking for a selling opportunity in that general vicinity. In fact, we can’t buy this market until we get above the 1.58 level, which is something that we do not anticipate seeing anytime soon. With that, we are bearish and ignoring the bullish pressure that we’ve seen recently.
EUR/USD forecast for the week of February 16, 2015, Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately settling on a slightly positive candle. We are still below the 1.15 level however, and that of course shows that we are still very soft in general. The Euro continues to be a currency that people shun, as the US dollar is without a doubt one of the most favored currencies in the world. We don’t really have any resistive candles to start selling, and believe that this is more or less going to be a short-term trader’s type of market.
GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 16-20, 2015 -Forecast (based on fxempire article)
The GBP/USD closed out the week at 1.5395 near its highest price in months after a speech by Bank of England Carney where he indicated the drop in inflation is expected and is due primarily to oil price declines. He indicated that the central bank could consider an interest rate increase in the coming months. THE pound has notched up its third consecutive week of gains against the dollar – its best run against the US currency since June last year.
The dollar fell for a second straight session on Friday against a basket of currencies, pressured by yet another weak U.S. economic report and investors continuing to pare back overstretched long positions ahead of a three-day holiday weekend. Thursday’s soft U.S. retail and jobless claims numbers didn’t help the dollar’s cause as well and that weakness spilled over to Friday. The dollar index was down 0.7 percent this week, on pace for its lowest weakly performance since mid-December. It was last at 93.976, down 0.1 percent. U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped in February, data showed on Friday. The University of Michigan’s preliminary February reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 93.6, below the final January read of 98.1.
The coming week features a potentially formative bit of event risk as January’s CPI figures cross the wires. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to drop to 0.4 percent, the lowest since at least 1989, but Mr Carney’s sanguine posture on this front will likely dilute the figures’ potency. Instead, all eyes will be focused on the core CPI print – a reading that excludes the influence of volatile items the BOE has opted to dismiss – which is expected to rise for a second month to 1.4 percent.
EUR/USD weekly outlook: February 16 - 20 (based on investing.com article)
The euro was little changed against the dollar on Friday, as concerns over the Greek debt crisis continued to weigh, but stronger-than-expected German growth figures lent support.
EUR/USD dipped 0.10% to 1.1391 in late trade, but the pair ended the week up 0.73%, its third consecutively weekly gain.
The euro found support after data on Friday showed that Germany’s economy, the euro zones largest, grew 0.7% in the fourth quarter, more than double the 0.3% forecast by economists.
The euro zone economy expanded by a larger-than-expected 0.3% in the three months to December, but Greece’s economy contracted 0.2% in the same period.
Meanwhile, officials from Greece and the European Union were due to hold fresh talks on Monday after talks on a new debt deal last week ended without an agreement.
Greece’s current €240 billion bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro zone.
Sentiment on the dollar was hit after data showing U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in February.
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 93.6, down from January’s final reading of 98.1. Economists had forecast an unchanged figure.
The report came a day after data showing that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.8% last month after dropping 0.9% in December, indicating that consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the year.
The weak data prompted investors to reassess expectations for a mid-year rate hike by the Federal Reserve and to trim back long positions in the greenback ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 94.24 late Friday and ended the week down 0.5%.
In the coming week, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for further indications on when the Fed may start to hike interest rates. Friday’s data on euro zone private sector activity will also be closely watched.
Monday, February 16
Tuesday, February 17
Wednesday, February 18
Thursday, February 19
Friday, February 20
GBP/USD weekly outlook: February 16 - 20 (based on investing.com article)
The pound rose to fresh six week highs against the broadly weaker dollar on Friday after data showing U.S consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated this month.
GBP/USD hit highs of 1.5422, the most since January 2 and was last at 1.5394. For the week, the pair gained 1.44%.
The greenback slid after the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 93.6, down from January’s final reading of 98.1. Economists had forecast an unchanged figure.
The report came a day after data showing that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.8% last month after dropping 0.9% in December, indicating that consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the year.
The weak data prompted investors to reassess expectations for a mid-year rate hike by the Federal Reserve and to trim back long positions in the greenback ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.
Demand for sterling continued to be underpinned after the Bank of England played down the threat of deflation in its quarterly inflation report on Thursday, despite warning that inflation would likely fall below zero in the first half of the year.
BoE Governor Mark Carney said there was no threat of persistent deflation as the decline in inflation was largely due to falling petrol, food and energy prices.
In a change to its forward guidance, the bank also said it would now consider cutting interest rates below 0.5% if inflation dipped more deeply into negative territory than expected.
In the coming week, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for further indications on when the Fed may start to hike interest rates.
Tuesday’s U.K. inflation report and Wednesday’s employment data will also be closely watched.
Monday, February 16
Tuesday, February 17
Wednesday, February 18
Thursday, February 19
Friday, February 20
GBP/USD Rallies Above 1.54 after BOE Comments (based on marketpulse article)
Sterling scaled a six-week peak early on Monday following recent hawkish-sounding comments from the Bank of England, while the other major currencies were subdued in a holiday-riddled week.
U.S. markets are shut on Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday, while many centers in Asia will be closed later this week for the Lunar New Year holidays.
The pound climbed as far as $1.5435 in early trade, from around $1.5407 late on Friday in New York, reaching a high last seen on Jan. 2. It was last at $1.5415.
AUDIO - Say's Law with Mark Thornton
John O’Donnell is joined by Dr. Mark Thornton of Mises Institute and they discuss JM Keynes vs Jean Bapiste Say methods to create wealth and the role of Say’s Law. Mark and John also discuss 2015 capital market forecasts, and why QE is not working in Japan, Europe, and the USA. They also get into James Grant's new bestselling book The Forgotten Depression and how it outlines the solution to cure recessions and depressions without QE and other money printing schemes.
China January Net Forex Sales CNY108.3 Billion (based on nasdaq article)
China's central bank and financial institutions sold a net 108.3 billion yuan ($17.5 billion) of foreign exchange in January, according to The Wall Street Journal's calculation based on central bank data issued Tuesday.
January is the second straight month that China's financial institutions saw net foreign exchange sales, following net sales of 118.365 billion yuan in December, and indicating that capital continues to flow out of China.
The banking system's total forex purchases position was 29.301 trillion yuan at the end of January, down from 29.409 trillion yuan at the end of December, central bank data showed.