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AUD/USD weekly outlook: February 9 - 13 (based on investing.com article)
The Australian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after a robust U.S. jobs report for January reinforced expectations for a mid-year rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 257,000 jobs in January, far more than the 234,000 forecast by economists. December’s figure was revised to 329,000 from a previously reported 252,000.
While the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.7% last month from December’s 5.6%, hourly earnings and the participation rate both saw increases in January.
The upbeat data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to start raising rates from near zero levels as early as June.
AUD/USD hit a session low of 0.7779 following the robust jobs data from a high of 0.7875 earlier, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7799 by close of trade, up 0.01% for the day and 0.36% higher for the week.
The Aussie plunged to 0.7651 against the greenback on Tuesday, the pair's lowest since May 2009, after the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly cut interest rates to a new record-low 2.25% from 2.50%, citing an overvalued local currency.
At the conclusion of its monthly policy meeting, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that growth will be weaker for a longer period of time and that the unemployment rate should rise higher than expected.
On Friday, the central bank eased the outlook for inflation in its quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy, while leaving clues to its next policy moves deliberately vague.
Elsewhere, concerns over Greek debt negotiations continued to weigh on market sentiment.
Standard and Poor’s downgraded Greece to B- from B late Friday, one notch above default, and kept the outlook at "negative", indicating that further ratings cuts are possible.
In the week ahead investors will be awaiting Thursday's U.S. data on retail sales and jobless claims and Friday’s report on consumer sentiment for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery.
Speeches by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will also be in focus as well as key Australian employment data.
Over the weekend, China reported a trade surplus of $60.0 billion in January, compared to expectations for $48.9 billion and up from a surplus of $49.6 in December.
Exports slumped 3.3% from a year earlier last month, missing expectations for a 6.3% increase, while imports tumbled 19.9%, much worse than forecasts for a decline of 3.0%.
The Asian nation is Australia's largest trade partner.
Monday, February 9
Tuesday, February 10
Wednesday, February 11
Thursday, February 12
Friday, February 13
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements] = Change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities. This data tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the government employment data rather than after.
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AUDIO - Weekend Edition with John O'Donnell
The week ended with indices clawing into positive territory for the year, and a major bounce in crude oil. John and Merlin take a look at many different aspects of the markets including oil, gold, risk management and the first “Donkey of the Day” for 2015!
AUD/USD Crowd Turns Net-Short Ahead of China CPI
The near-term rebound in AUD/USD may get cut short should the fundamental developments coming out of China dampen the outlook for global growth.
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to respond by raising interest rates.
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China CPI Slows To 0.8% In January
Consumer prices in China were up just 0.8 percent on year in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.
That was well shy of forecasts for a gain of 1.0 percent and down sharply from 1.5 percent in December.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.3 percent - the same as in December.
Producer prices also disappointed, tumbling 4.3 percent on year versus expectations for a decline of 3.8 percent following the 3.3 percent fall in the previous month.
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 11, 2015 – Forecast (based on fxempire article)
The AUD/USD rallied to 0.7836 gaining 33 points after the house price index gained and printed above expectations and the US dollar tumbled a bit in the morning session. China’s slowing inflation and a 35th straight contraction in factory gate prices give policy makers room undertake extra stimulus after cutting interest rates in November and reducing banks’ reserve requirements last week.
The Abbott government must remain focused on economic reform despite the uncertainty surrounding its leadership. That’s the view of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, warning its members that policy action since the global financial crisis appears to be losing steam. The OECD makes a number of recommendations in a report prepared for the G20 finance ministers meeting in Istanbul on Monday that supports the Australian government’s agenda. The OECD again pushed for a higher and broader GST, but Prime Minister Tony Abbott said only last week the government had no plans to touch the GST “this term or next”, insisting the rate could not change unless all the states and territories agreed.
Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates for the first time since August 2013 this week, abruptly ending a period of stability that saw rates remain on hold for a record period, the Aussie has held out.
With the domestic cash rate now sitting at 2.25 per cent, its lowest ever mark, the announcement initially succeeded in spurring another bout of selling for the Australian dollar. It quickly plummeted to 0.7630 on the news, a level not seen in over six years. But since then the majority of losses have now been re-captured, in a rally that’s left many investors scratching their heads.
Video: Looking for More Stable, Technical-Centric Pairs Like AUDUSD (based on dailyfx article)
The EURUSD, EURJPY and EURGBP face considerable risk for extreme volatility while enjoying limited capacity for projecting a consistent direction through the turmoil. Many traders seek out the high-volatility scenarios to provide trade setups. However, volatility with little clarity on the 'trigger', the potential for consistent direction and the extent of follow through can represent more risk than reward. Sometimes, the better path is to reduce our exposure to open-ended fundamental threats to focus on more straightforward catalysts or technicals. In today's Strategy Video, we discuss why EUR, GBP and JPY pairs may be better to avoid now while AUD, NZD, CAD and even USD could offer more acceptable opportunities.
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - France Current Account] = The current account released by the Banque de France is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services and interest payments into and out of France. A current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital into the country exceeds the capital reduction. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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France Current Account Swings To Deficit In DecemberFrance's current account turned to a deficit in December from a surplus in the previous month, as the visible trade shortfall widened on the back of higher volume of oil imports, data from the Bank of France showed Wednesday.
The current account showed a deficit of EUR 1.9 billion versus a surplus of EUR 0.3 billion in November. The goods trade surplus widened to EUR 1.9 billion from EUR 1 billion, while the surplus in the services trade fell to EUR 0.1 billion from EUR 1.4 billion.
The income account balances were stable. The financial account showed a deficit of EUR 16.3 billion compared to a surplus of EUR 5.1 billion in the previous month. The capital account surplus grew to EUR 0.5 billion from EUR 0.1 billion.
AUDIO - As the Currency Markets Turn with Justin Krebs
Justin Krebs joins Merlin for a thorough look at many different listener questions. The duo takes a look at the Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Suisse Franc, Dollar index, Fibonacci and much more!
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
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JANUARY KEY POINTS
TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)