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EUR/USD – Elliot Wave analysis suggests first target reached says Goldman Sachs (based on forexlive article)
USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis
The greenback found good support at 115.85 and has rebounded, retaining our view that further consolidation within 115.57-121.85 range would be seen with initial mild upside bias for another bounce to 119.00 and possibly towards 119.96-00. Having said that, a break of resistance at 120.83 is needed to signal correction from 121.85 has ended bring retest of this level, above there would signal medium term upmove has resumed for gain to 122.50-60, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 123.20-25 (2 times extension of 101.07-110.09 measuring from 105.20) and reckon 124.10-15 (50% projection of 105.20-118.98 measuring from 117.24) would hold, price should falter well below psychological resistance at 125.00.
Our preferred count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now unfolding for gain towards 125.00 level.
Under this count, this wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67, 79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00 should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5, indicated target at 118.00 had been met and gain to 122.00 cannot be ruled out but reckon price would falter below 125.00.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 116.50 and bring another rebound later. Only a break of said support at 115.57 would dampen our bullishness and risk retracement of recent upmove to 113.50-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 105.20-121.85), however, downside should be limited to 112.90-00 and reckon 111.50-60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would contain weakness and price should stay well above previous resistance at 110.09, bring another rally later.
Recommendation: Hold long entered at 116.50 for 119.50 with stop below 115.50.
EUR/USD Rallies to 1.1250 Following Greek Vote (based on marketpulse article)
The euro rebounded on Monday as investors took advantage of steep losses sustained during two days of dramatic selling, with the final push down to a fresh 11-year low coming after elections in Greece put an anti-austerity government in power.
Following the outcome of Sunday’s vote, the euro hit its lowest against the U.S. dollar since September 2003 at $1.1098 in Asian trading, according to the EBS trading platform EUR=EBS. Greece elected, as expected, left-wing leader Alexis Tsipras of the anti-bailout Syriza party.
Tsipras’s party won 149 seats in the 300-seat Greek parliament, setting Athens on a collision course with international lenders and potentially threatening its place in the euro.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Quiet Consolidation Continues (based on dailyfx article)
The US Dollar is consolidating gains against the Japanese Yen having advanced as expected after forming a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 119.48, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the December 23 high at 120.82. Alternatively, a reversal below the 117.64-91 area marked by a horizontal pivot and the 23.6% Fib retracement opens the door for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 115.48.
Positioning is inconclusive at this point, with prices offering no clear-cut and actionable signal to initiate a long or short trade. We will continue to remain on the sidelines for the time being, waiting for a compelling opportunity to present itself.
Another Big Week Points to Major Currency Moves - How Might we Trade? (based on dailyfx article)
Forex technical trading: USDJPY a little more bullish but still within the range parameters (based on forexlive article)
The USDJPY remains stuck in a range – above and below trend line resistance – with the 100 and 200 hour MAs in between (blue and green lines) There have been a couple weak attempts to push outside the boundaries- once on the topside on Friday and today on the downside in the first few hours of trading. Each failed. Currently, the pair has been able to extend above the 100 hour MA which gives it a little more bullish bias (100 hour MA comes in at 118.05 level – blue line). The topside trend line is currently trading at 118.58.
Good Artists Copy, Great Artists Steal: A 3-Month Outlook On EURUSD (based on seekingalpha article)
During a multi-part PBS television program "Triumph of the Nerds: The Rise of Accidental Empires", which premiered in 1996, Steve Jobs mentioned the saying which he attributed to Pablo Picasso:
"Ultimately it comes down to taste. It comes down to trying to expose yourself to the best things that humans have done and then try to bring those things in to what you're doing. I mean Picasso had a saying he said good artists copy great artists steal. And we have always been shameless about stealing great ideas."USDJPY Japan Economy will Collapse (adapted from livetradingnews article)
The shortfall of 12.78tn, Japan’s fourth-consecutive annual deficit, was 11.4% wider than 2013 and was the worst since records began in 1979, according to the finance ministry. Fuel costs have weighed heavily on Japan as the resource-poor country struggles to plug a huge energy gap after the 2011 atomic crisis forced the shutdown of nuclear reactors that once supplied more than a quarter of its power. That problem has been exacerbated by a sharp fall in the yen, which hiked the cost of energy imports purchased in foreign currencies.
In December alone, however, Japan’s trade deficit almost halved over the previous year to 660.7bn, largely thanks to falling oil prices.
The trade balance last month was also helped by a better-than-expected 12.9% jump in exports.
Japan’s trade deficit “is set to narrow further as lower energy prices are still not fully reflected in import costs”, Capital Economics said in note after the figures were published.
“The key development for the trade balance in coming months… remains the plunge in the price of crude oil since last summer. So far, this is only partly reflected in the cost of imported petroleum.
AUDIO - Currency Perspectives with Reggie Ringgold
The Euro showed a little strength, while the dollar took a breather! Reggie Ringgold joins Power Trading Radio to offer his thoughts on the trend for both of these currencies and much more. The duo take a look at how the recent Greek elections may impact the Euro going forward and possibly global currencies.
