New EA - page 4

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RaptorUK:

If you have a fixed SL and TP then yes,  you can almost determine your R:R from these figures . . .  I say almost because the Spread will potentially have a part to play.  It may seem counter intuitive,  but the spread will actually make the WR for a "coin toss" higher . . .  

 

Consider a SL of  10 and a TP of 10 and assume a spread of zero,  this give a R:R of 10:10 of  1.0 and this gives a "coin toss" WR of 50%

Now consider a SL of  10 and a TP of 10 and assume a spread of   1.0  this changes the SL to 11 and the TP to 9,  this give a "coin toss" WR of 55%

So in facts, the "coin toss" curve must be drawn with the spread actually used, it would be better to have a set of curves with spread as parameters.
 
angevoyageur:
Thanks a lot for this useful post. All the difficulty is now to draw the curve for a strategy.
No curve . . .  just a single point.  Strategy  WR and Strategy R:R
 
angevoyageur:
So in facts, the "coin toss" curve must be drawn with the spread actually used, it would be better to have a set of curves with spread as parameters.
The spread just changes the R:R,  the curve is valid for any spread.
 
RaptorUK:
No curve . . .  just a single point.  Strategy  WR and Strategy R:R
Your strategy WR and/or R:R would probably change when you modify some parameters (like SL, TP or others).
 

Here is an example I created a few days ago . . .  the points plotted may have moved since I created this chart.  I have used the number of losing trades and number of winning trades to establish the WR and average loss and average win to establish the R:R

 

 
angevoyageur:
Your strategy WR and/or R:R would probably change when you modify some parameters (like SL, TP or others).
Yes,  so you just re-plot your new point.  But if your strategy is fundamentally the same just adjusting the SL and/or TP will not improve the strategy's performance  . . .  it will just move the plotted point along the curve.  The important thing is the distance between the plotted point and the curve.
 
angevoyageur:
Thanks a lot for this useful post. All the difficulty is now to draw the curve for a strategy.

I am making a spreadsheet, I will share when Raptor verifies it. 

:) 

 
RaptorUK:

Here is an example I created a few days ago . . .  the points plotted may have moved since I created this chart.  I have used the number of losing trades and number of winning trades to establish the WR and average loss and average win to establish the R:R

 

Im not understanding this chart but does it mean my strategy complies? Anyway i guess the best way is to see it live in signal. Dont waste too much time concentrating in formulas a profit is a profit. If someone came and gave you $1 million will you take it or will you start drawing curves to see if it falls on the line. Also a strategy can have 50% win/loss but the TP is higher so although one would say its like a coin toss every winning trade earns more than each losing trade so your theory doesn't apply i dont even know where you got this. Some people just complicate forex for themselves.
 
tonny:
Im not understanding this chart but does it mean my strategy complies? Anyway i guess the best way is to see it live in signal. Dont waste too much time concentrating in formulas a profit is a profit. If someone came and gave you $1 million will you take it or will you start drawing curves to see if it falls on the line. Also a strategy can have 50% win/loss but the TP is higher so although one would say its like a coin toss every winning trade earns more than each losing trade so your theory doesn't apply i dont even know where you got this. Some people just complicate forex for themselves.

Where did I get this ?  I got it from thinking . . .

There is no complies or does not comply . . .  your EA is quite close to the line,  although it is significantly better post October. Does this mean your EA is about as good as a "coin toss" but is having an OK run ? time will tell,  but the further from the line the less like a "coin toss" it is likely to be.  You seem to missing the important point,  a "coin toss" does not have to have a 50% WR

 
Perhaps i should explain coin toss style. Lets say we are tossing a coin several times. Take heads to be buy and tails to be sell. You say what you think will be the outcome and in addition you are to get 100 pips if you get correct and you lose 30 pips if you dont get correct. You see in such a case profitability is independent of your theory and is a winning system although raptor gospel will give it red card.
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