What happens if you think you have struck gold? - page 2
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BB, (if you have replied to my post) these are just a few of the trades, there are more but because i have been testing this and trying other methods there is a bit distortion in the demo account
16.00
Hi Cloudbreaker
I am interested in your comment about disciplined backtesting, inverse testing, forward walk analysis. I'm highly suspicious of all my backtesting results, but you seem to know of more rigorous techniques for testing. Would you please give me some pointers on the inverse testing and forward walk analysis?
Cheers
Jellybean
Jellybean, I'll compile a list of resources for you within the next day or so.
CB
...there is only one trade taken out at a time, this is the reason for the magic number, so untill its all sorted, i'm stuck with tweaking it...
We've tried posting all the necessary pieces, but it didnt seem to work for you - so are you going to post the actual code, to which we can add the magic number?
-BB-
BB, as it happens i will only find out if it has worked when the current trade is closed and if another opens on a different currency straight away then it will have failed as the criteria would have been met while the current trade is still open.As for the last question,I would like to think i could devolope this to sell hence the hedging part, this needs to be in place to counteract the drawdown,however if you use the EA you can manually do this but that defeats the whole automated plan, what i need is someone to work on it with me but have had little offers so no plans to make it public as yet,
Robbo
Jellybean, I'll compile a list of resources for you within the next day or so.
CB
PM with all the info you require on backtesting, inverse testing and forward walk analysis, Jellybean.
CB
BB, as it happens i will only find out if it has worked when the current trade is closed and if another opens on a different currency straight away then it will have failed as the criteria would have been met while the current trade is still open.As for the last question,I would like to think i could devolope this to sell hence the hedging part, this needs to be in place to counteract the drawdown,however if you use the EA you can manually do this but that defeats the whole automated plan, what i need is someone to work on it with me but have had little offers so no plans to make it public as yet,
Robbo
I sent you a PM.
I'm in your same position.. check this out:
EURUSD 2009-01-01 - 2009-07-30
.
Highlights -> Starting balance 1000$, max drawdown 4.53%, only 7 months, $2.3 Billion in profit
.
Bars in test 210425
Ticks modelled 7604110
Modelling quality 25.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 1000.00
Total net profit 2318978532.20
Gross profit 5429066451.20
Gross loss -3110087919.00
Profit factor 1.75
Expected payoff 807162.73
Absolute drawdown 40.60
Maximal drawdown 102698973.00 (4.53%)
Relative drawdown 49.53% (19358754.19)
Total trades 2873
Short positions (won %) 1462 (43.57%)
Long positions (won %) 1411 (56.98%)
Profit trades (% of total) 1441 (50.16%)
Loss trades (% of total) 1432 (49.84%)
Largest
profit trade 50636196.60
loss trade -4999950.00
Average
profit trade 3767568.67
loss trade -2171849.11
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 8 (235498115.40)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 9 (-44999550.00)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 235498115.40 (8)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -44999550.00 (9)
Average
consecutive wins 2
consecutive losses 2
.
.
Doesn't seem to be as fruitful in real trading though up to now.. might just be starting slow =/ Time will tell, it's still young.
Oh and cloud, if you could PM me your message for backtesting it would be appreciated. I might learn something.
Archael, have you run this on a demo,if so what about posting any results, i would like to think that i could tweak my EA then when its optomized, sell it commercialy, to be honest i think this would be on most minds,
Robbo