- A little surprised :) Thought I'd share and ask a NOT rhetorical question.
- How to Start with Metatrader 5
- Errors, bugs, questions
"I tweaked and tweaked"
Run it forward for the next month on a demo account and give us another report.
Be sure to remember to attach it next time.
So I wrote one of my first EA's, it seemed to favor USDCAD, so I tweaked and tweaked until I got the attached results. Can this be for real or is backtesting just a way we lie to ourselves about potential results?
Back testing does have limitations, the main issues are:
1) Over-optimisation - i.e. setting parameters based on historical patterns that will never happen again - or more typically, missing a situation that results in a vicious drawdown that is lurking somewhere in the next week/month/quarter of upcoming data!
2) Metaquotes history data is a little 'kinder' to EA's than single-broker
3) Some EA types just dont backtest accurately at all - I dont pretend to know why. Most common situation is, "EA does great in back testing, bombs in forward". More rarely, an EA that loses on back testing will win well on forward...! These seem to be the EA's that retain price & win/loss data in complex arrays, working out S&R levels on the fly and trading between them - but again I cant explain the 'why' of this - just is!
Having said that, you have to start somewhere & opening a chart based on a backtest can reveal a pattern of why your EA is losing
My 2c worth
-BB-
"I tweaked and tweaked"
Run it forward for the next month on a demo account and give us another report.
Be sure to remember to attach it next time.
I tried to attach the file, it is an htm, i put the file name etc in the 'attach file' box on the bottom, but it did not attach it. Do I have to press something besides 'Update' ? File size is 38KB
Symbol | USDCAD (US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar) | ||||
Period | 5 Minutes (M5) 2007.03.05 00:00 - 2008.03.05 23:55 (2007.03.05 - 2008.03.06) | ||||
Model | Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes) | ||||
Parameters | TakeProfit=130; StopLoss=90; Lots=10; longshort=-1; lossstreak=0; flip=2; total=1; ticket=0; pricestep=10; target=10; slstep=0; tpstep=10; adxtarget=35; macdrange=1; minlot=1; lotincrease=2; lotdecrease=2; maxlot=590; | ||||
Bars in test | 69653 | Ticks modelled | 921300 | Modelling quality | 90.00% |
Mismatched charts errors | 0 | ||||
Initial deposit | 10000.00 | ||||
Total net profit | 5092389.21 | Gross profit | 9240865.98 | Gross loss | -4148476.77 |
Profit factor | 2.23 | Expected payoff | 101847.78 | ||
Absolute drawdown | 4819.07 | Maximal drawdown | 1657182.18 (96.38%) | Relative drawdown | 96.38% (1657182.18) |
Total trades | 50 | Short positions (won %) | 50 (52.00%) | Long positions (won %) | 0 (0.00%) |
Profit trades (% of total) | 26 (52.00%) | Loss trades (% of total) | 24 (48.00%) | ||
Largest | profit trade | 816465.78 | loss trade | -576985.77 | |
Average | profit trade | 355417.92 | loss trade | -172853.20 | |
Maximum | consecutive wins (profit in money) | 9 (6094238.39) | consecutive losses (loss in money) | 8 (-1124978.18) | |
Maximal | consecutive profit (count of wins) | 6094238.39 (9) | consecutive loss (count of losses) | -1124978.18 (8) | |
Average | consecutive wins | 3 | consecutive losses | 3 |
# | Time | Type | Order | Size | Price | S / L | T / P | Profit | Balance |
1 | 2007.03.05 00:00 | sell | 1 | 10.00 | 1.1771 | 1.1861 | 1.1641 | ||
2 | 2007.03.20 15:15 | t/p | 1 | 10.00 | 1.1641 | 1.1861 | 1.1641 | 11243.84 | 21243.84 |
3 | 2007.03.20 21:45 | sell | 2 | 20.00 | 1.1614 | 1.1704 | 1.1484 | ||
4 | 2007.04.10 11:53 | t/p | 2 | 20.00 | 1.1484 | 1.1704 | 1.1484 | 22854.15 | 44097.99 |
5 | 2007.04.12 00:55 | sell | 3 | 40.00 | 1.1398 | 1.1488 | 1.1268 | ||
6 | 2007.04.18 16:10 | t/p | 3 | 40.00 | 1.1268 | 1.1488 | 1.1268 | 46229.88 | 90327.87 |
7 | 2007.04.23 08:50 | sell | 4 | 80.00 | 1.1236 | 1.1326 | 1.1106 | ||
8 | 2007.04.30 14:41 | t/p | 4 | 80.00 | 1.1106 | 1.1326 | 1.1106 | 93945.20 | 184273.08 |
9 | 2007.04.30 19:35 | sell | 5 | 160.00 | 1.1082 | 1.1172 | 1.0952 | ||
10 | 2007.05.18 10:06 | t/p | 5 | 160.00 | 1.0952 | 1.1172 | 1.0952 | 191549.73 | 375822.81 |
11 | 2007.05.21 12:42 | sell | 6 | 320.00 | 1.0852 | 1.0942 | 1.0722 | ||
12 | 2007.05.29 15:52 | t/p | 6 | 320.00 | 1.0722 | 1.0942 | 1.0722 | 389327.56 | 765150.37 |
13 | 2007.05.29 19:35 | sell | 7 | 590.00 | 1.0730 | 1.0820 | 1.0600 | ||
14 | 2007.06.04 08:04 | t/p | 7 | 590.00 | 1.0600 | 1.0820 | 1.0600 | 725456.46 | 1490606.83 |
15 | 2007.06.05 04:57 | sell | 8 | 590.00 | 1.0588 | 1.0678 | 1.0458 | ||
16 | 2007.06.08 12:12 | s/l | 8 | 590.00 | 1.0678 | 1.0678 | 1.0458 | -495641.73 | 994965.10 |
17 | 2007.06.11 00:26 | sell | 9 | 295.00 | 1.0613 | 1.0703 | 1.0483 | ||
18 | 2007.06.13 09:51 | s/l | 9 | 295.00 | 1.0703 | 1.0703 | 1.0483 | -247760.74 | 747204.35 |
19 | 2007.06.19 04:20 | sell | 10 | 147.50 | 1.0712 | 1.0802 | 1.0582 | ||
20 | 2007.06.28 22:28 | t/p | 10 | 147.50 | 1.0582 | 1.0802 | 1.0582 | 182030.43 | 929234.78 |
21 | 2007.07.02 13:06 | sell | 11 | 295.00 | 1.0606 | 1.0696 | 1.0476 | ||
22 | 2007.07.06 16:26 | t/p | 11 | 295.00 | 1.0476 | 1.0696 | 1.0476 | 366976.48 | 1296211.26 |
23 | 2007.07.09 21:26 | sell | 12 | 590.00 | 1.0489 | 1.0579 | 1.0359 | ||
24 | 2007.07.11 08:57 | s/l | 12 | 590.00 | 1.0579 | 1.0579 | 1.0359 | -501194.41 | 795016.85 |
25 | 2007.07.11 23:53 | sell | 13 | 295.00 | 1.0552 | 1.0642 | 1.0422 | ||
26 | 2007.07.16 16:23 | t/p | 13 | 295.00 | 1.0422 | 1.0642 | 1.0422 | 368722.96 | 1163739.82 |
27 | 2007.07.17 03:01 | sell | 14 | 590.00 | 1.0440 | 1.0530 | 1.0310 | ||
28 | 2007.07.26 16:23 | s/l | 14 | 590.00 | 1.0530 | 1.0530 | 1.0310 | -500967.49 | 662772.32 |
29 | 2007.07.30 16:38 | sell | 15 | 295.00 | 1.0684 | 1.0774 | 1.0554 | ||
30 | 2007.08.02 00:17 | t/p | 15 | 295.00 | 1.0554 | 1.0774 | 1.0554 | 364120.71 | 1026893.03 |
31 | 2007.08.02 01:16 | sell | 16 | 590.00 | 1.0566 | 1.0656 | 1.0436 | ||
32 | 2007.08.14 17:02 | s/l | 16 | 590.00 | 1.0656 | 1.0656 | 1.0436 | -495258.59 | 531634.44 |
33 | 2007.08.17 11:36 | sell | 17 | 295.00 | 1.0776 | 1.0866 | 1.0646 | ||
34 | 2007.08.17 14:26 | t/p | 17 | 295.00 | 1.0646 | 1.0866 | 1.0646 | 360296.88 | 891931.32 |
35 | 2007.08.20 09:20 | sell | 18 | 590.00 | 1.0595 | 1.0685 | 1.0465 | ||
36 | 2007.08.21 23:20 | s/l | 18 | 590.00 | 1.0685 | 1.0685 | 1.0465 | -496611.30 | 395320.02 |
37 | 2007.08.24 00:27 | sell | 19 | 295.00 | 1.0537 | 1.0627 | 1.0407 | ||
38 | 2007.08.28 17:20 | s/l | 19 | 295.00 | 1.0627 | 1.0627 | 1.0407 | -249534.78 | 145785.23 |
39 | 2007.09.04 07:00 | sell | 20 | 145.78 | 1.0532 | 1.0622 | 1.0402 | ||
40 | 2007.09.12 13:47 | t/p | 20 | 145.78 | 1.0402 | 1.0622 | 1.0402 | 182801.56 | 328586.79 |
41 | 2007.09.12 22:36 | sell | 21 | 291.57 | 1.0369 | 1.0459 | 1.0239 | ||
42 | 2007.09.18 14:33 | t/p | 21 | 291.57 | 1.0239 | 1.0459 | 1.0239 | 371156.85 | 699743.65 |
43 | 2007.09.20 06:36 | sell | 22 | 583.14 | 1.0137 | 1.0227 | 1.0007 | ||
44 | 2007.09.20 14:15 | t/p | 22 | 583.14 | 1.0007 | 1.0227 | 1.0007 | 757551.71 | 1457295.36 |
45 | 2007.09.27 09:55 | sell | 23 | 590.00 | 1.0020 | 1.0110 | 0.9890 | ||
46 | 2007.10.05 13:00 | t/p | 23 | 590.00 | 0.9890 | 1.0110 | 0.9890 | 778013.63 | 2235308.99 |
47 | 2007.10.09 00:26 | sell | 24 | 590.00 | 0.9873 | 0.9963 | 0.9743 | ||
48 | 2007.10.11 16:25 | t/p | 24 | 590.00 | 0.9743 | 0.9963 | 0.9743 | 788514.85 | 3023823.84 |
49 | 2007.10.12 02:55 | sell | 25 | 590.00 | 0.9766 | 0.9856 | 0.9636 | ||
50 | 2007.10.19 17:14 | t/p | 25 | 590.00 | 0.9636 | 0.9856 | 0.9636 | 798077.25 | 3821901.09 |
51 | 2007.10.23 06:40 | sell | 26 | 590.00 | 0.9767 | 0.9857 | 0.9637 | ||
52 | 2007.10.23 14:04 | t/p | 26 | 590.00 | 0.9637 | 0.9857 | 0.9637 | 795890.84 | 4617791.93 |
53 | 2007.10.25 15:20 | sell | 27 | 590.00 | 0.9656 | 0.9746 | 0.9526 | ||
54 | 2007.10.29 18:41 | t/p | 27 | 590.00 | 0.9526 | 0.9746 | 0.9526 | 805765.90 | 5423557.83 |
55 | 2007.10.31 06:09 | sell | 28 | 590.00 | 0.9541 | 0.9631 | 0.9411 | ||
56 | 2007.11.02 12:00 | t/p | 28 | 590.00 | 0.9411 | 0.9631 | 0.9411 | 816465.78 | 6240023.62 |
57 | 2007.11.07 08:46 | sell | 29 | 590.00 | 0.9113 | 0.9203 | 0.8983 | ||
58 | 2007.11.07 20:12 | s/l | 29 | 590.00 | 0.9203 | 0.9203 | 0.8983 | -576985.77 | 5663037.85 |
59 | 2007.11.09 19:15 | sell | 30 | 295.00 | 0.9411 | 0.9501 | 0.9281 | ||
60 | 2007.11.12 05:47 | s/l | 30 | 295.00 | 0.9501 | 0.9501 | 0.9281 | -279264.59 | 5383773.26 |
61 | 2007.11.12 10:13 | sell | 31 | 147.50 | 0.9479 | 0.9569 | 0.9349 | ||
62 | 2007.11.12 12:12 | s/l | 31 | 147.50 | 0.9569 | 0.9569 | 0.9349 | -138729.23 | 5245044.03 |
63 | 2007.11.19 03:39 | sell | 32 | 73.75 | 0.9738 | 0.9828 | 0.9608 | ||
64 | 2007.11.19 16:09 | s/l | 32 | 73.75 | 0.9828 | 0.9828 | 0.9608 | -67529.76 | 5177514.27 |
65 | 2007.11.21 00:20 | sell | 33 | 36.87 | 0.9812 | 0.9902 | 0.9682 | ||
66 | 2007.11.21 14:30 | s/l | 33 | 36.87 | 0.9902 | 0.9902 | 0.9682 | -33511.41 | 5144002.86 |
67 | 2007.11.22 21:05 | sell | 34 | 18.43 | 0.9843 | 0.9933 | 0.9713 | ||
68 | 2007.11.27 10:49 | s/l | 34 | 18.43 | 0.9933 | 0.9933 | 0.9713 | -16667.36 | 5127335.51 |
69 | 2007.11.28 08:35 | sell | 35 | 9.21 | 0.9962 | 1.0052 | 0.9832 | ||
70 | 2007.12.04 12:51 | s/l | 35 | 9.21 | 1.0052 | 1.0052 | 0.9832 | -8216.33 | 5119119.18 |
71 | 2007.12.07 19:21 | sell | 36 | 4.60 | 1.0059 | 1.0149 | 0.9929 | ||
72 | 2007.12.11 20:23 | s/l | 36 | 4.60 | 1.0149 | 1.0149 | 0.9929 | -4073.73 | 5115045.44 |
73 | 2007.12.14 05:45 | sell | 37 | 2.30 | 1.0193 | 1.0283 | 1.0063 | ||
74 | 2007.12.17 16:00 | t/p | 37 | 2.30 | 1.0063 | 1.0283 | 1.0063 | 2972.45 | 5118017.89 |
75 | 2007.12.18 05:59 | sell | 38 | 4.60 | 1.0058 | 1.0148 | 0.9928 | ||
76 | 2007.12.21 16:59 | t/p | 38 | 4.60 | 0.9928 | 1.0148 | 0.9928 | 6035.09 | 5124052.98 |
77 | 2007.12.21 21:27 | sell | 39 | 9.21 | 0.9933 | 1.0023 | 0.9803 | ||
78 | 2007.12.27 15:00 | t/p | 39 | 9.21 | 0.9803 | 1.0023 | 0.9803 | 12241.76 | 5136294.74 |
79 | 2007.12.28 02:00 | sell | 40 | 18.43 | 0.9811 | 0.9901 | 0.9681 | ||
80 | 2008.01.02 09:01 | s/l | 40 | 18.43 | 0.9901 | 0.9901 | 0.9681 | -16687.55 | 5119607.19 |
81 | 2008.01.02 21:10 | sell | 41 | 9.21 | 0.9918 | 1.0008 | 0.9788 | ||
82 | 2008.01.04 16:11 | s/l | 41 | 9.21 | 1.0008 | 1.0008 | 0.9788 | -8260.29 | 5111346.90 |
83 | 2008.01.07 16:00 | sell | 42 | 4.60 | 1.0004 | 1.0094 | 0.9874 | ||
84 | 2008.01.09 15:06 | s/l | 42 | 4.60 | 1.0094 | 1.0094 | 0.9874 | -4096.35 | 5107250.55 |
85 | 2008.01.10 08:22 | sell | 43 | 2.30 | 1.0101 | 1.0191 | 0.9971 | ||
86 | 2008.01.11 13:11 | s/l | 43 | 2.30 | 1.0191 | 1.0191 | 0.9971 | -2030.03 | 5105220.52 |
87 | 2008.01.17 04:46 | sell | 44 | 1.15 | 1.0240 | 1.0330 | 1.0110 | ||
88 | 2008.01.21 12:04 | s/l | 44 | 1.15 | 1.0330 | 1.0330 | 1.0110 | -1000.77 | 5104219.75 |
89 | 2008.01.25 17:14 | sell | 45 | 1.00 | 1.0066 | 1.0156 | 0.9936 | ||
90 | 2008.01.30 14:39 | t/p | 45 | 1.00 | 0.9936 | 1.0156 | 0.9936 | 1309.90 | 5105529.65 |
91 | 2008.01.30 22:03 | sell | 46 | 2.00 | 0.9921 | 1.0011 | 0.9791 | ||
92 | 2008.01.31 14:34 | s/l | 46 | 2.00 | 1.0011 | 1.0011 | 0.9791 | -1794.78 | 5103734.86 |
93 | 2008.02.01 01:47 | sell | 47 | 1.00 | 1.0028 | 1.0118 | 0.9898 | ||
94 | 2008.02.07 13:55 | s/l | 47 | 1.00 | 1.0118 | 1.0118 | 0.9898 | -886.36 | 5102848.50 |
95 | 2008.02.13 01:05 | sell | 48 | 1.00 | 1.0013 | 1.0103 | 0.9883 | ||
96 | 2008.02.15 19:16 | s/l | 48 | 1.00 | 1.0103 | 1.0103 | 0.9883 | -888.78 | 5101959.72 |
97 | 2008.02.18 22:00 | sell | 49 | 1.00 | 1.0077 | 1.0167 | 0.9947 | ||
98 | 2008.02.19 20:58 | s/l | 49 | 1.00 | 1.0167 | 1.0167 | 0.9947 | -884.62 | 5101075.10 |
99 | 2008.02.21 08:06 | sell | 50 | 1.00 | 1.0126 | 1.0216 | 0.9996 | ||
100 | 2008.03.05 01:18 | t/p | 50 | 1.00 | 0.9996 | 1.0216 | 0.9996 | 1314.11 | 5102389.21 |
Maximal and relative drawdown is 96.38%?
Sounds awfully risky despite the amazing results...
And biggest position 590 LOTS? $5900 per pip?
Sounds quite unreal later on for a real live account...
Maximal and relative drawdown is 96.38%?
Sounds awfully risky despite the amazing results...
And biggest position 590 LOTS? $5900 per pip?
Sounds quite unreal later on for a real live account...
Ya thats pretty unrealistic. hahah
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