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10+ лет
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30
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548
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Evgeniy Scherbina
Top 10 Expert Advisors in the market - which of them will keep it up in June 2024? First and foremost, a number of rules to define a good strategy: Diversification. A good strategy should be able to trade many symbols...
· 5
94
Evgeniy Scherbina
What's up, guys! I am testing a new risky strategy LuminaFX. You can check its demo signal in my profile on myfxbook.com (simply look for LuminaFX). And this is what I am seeing. In April - start of May, LuminaFX slowed down a bit, while QuantumPip was bumping up quickly. If these two were combined, they would still show an upward progress.
Likewise, right now I am seeing that it is QuantumPip slowing down, while LuminaFX is really pushing up. They differ in the way inputs are fed: stacked sequences for QuantumPip, ordered sequences for LuminaFX. There is a reason why they may be opening opposite trades.
And as we all know, it is better to open more trades because more risk creates more profit. If the forecast quality is at least 51% (it is so for both QuantumPip and LuminaFX), a lot of trades would always be winning at the end of a month. A few good trades may be pure luck, it may last 1 month, 2 months... But a lot of trades will always create enough opportunities to grab profits!!
What do you think?
Likewise, right now I am seeing that it is QuantumPip slowing down, while LuminaFX is really pushing up. They differ in the way inputs are fed: stacked sequences for QuantumPip, ordered sequences for LuminaFX. There is a reason why they may be opening opposite trades.
And as we all know, it is better to open more trades because more risk creates more profit. If the forecast quality is at least 51% (it is so for both QuantumPip and LuminaFX), a lot of trades would always be winning at the end of a month. A few good trades may be pure luck, it may last 1 month, 2 months... But a lot of trades will always create enough opportunities to grab profits!!
What do you think?
· 3
Evgeniy Scherbina
Выставил продукт
Советник QuantumPip ("КвантумПип") - это полностью автоматический советник, который умеет торговать одновременно на 10 символах: AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPCHF, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY, USDNOK и USDSEK. Советник также использует цены золота и серебра для расчета входов по этим символам. Сейчас я провожу тесты, чтобы добавить в советник еще 10 кросс-курсов. Советник использует два вида рекуррентной нейронной модели - односетевую (решения "бай" или "селл") и двухсетевую (решения "бай" или
Evgeniy Scherbina
Опубликовал MetaTrader 4 сигнал
Settings: Accounting = Smart_Netting Money Management = Responsible Risk = Reliable Max trades per signal = 1 New function >> Close "End of Week" or "End of Month". Still testing. Does not trade Nok and Sek, because they are not tradeable with this broker
Evgeniy Scherbina
I have started a new demo signal for this new strategy LuminaFX, which relies on the ordered bars and not stacked bars. As I wrote previously, it cannot pass the history well. But boy does it rush upwards right away? It is the first week +10%. And it is immediately a positive profit for anything it opens?!?!
· 3
Evgeniy Scherbina
Hi, everyone. I am working to make a new advisor based on a new principle. I have always believed in a stacked order of bars. But recently I thought there may be a better sequential order... I am still testing it. But the new name is ready! Bam-bam pam-pam-pam! It is LuminaFX!
The thing is QuantumPip, which is my most advanced system so far, still shows better results. I can't make LuminaFX outperform QuantumPip. But I will keep on searching. I think if the past has the same random prices as the future does, a good strategy should be able to pass the history with a satisfactory result. LuminaFX struggles to do it. Do I have to come to the conclusion that it is different: To be able to pass the random prices of the future, a good strategy should not fit to the prices of the past at all???
The thing is QuantumPip, which is my most advanced system so far, still shows better results. I can't make LuminaFX outperform QuantumPip. But I will keep on searching. I think if the past has the same random prices as the future does, a good strategy should be able to pass the history with a satisfactory result. LuminaFX struggles to do it. Do I have to come to the conclusion that it is different: To be able to pass the random prices of the future, a good strategy should not fit to the prices of the past at all???
· 4
Evgeniy Scherbina
Выставил продукт
IDixie - это индикатор, показывающий значения открытия и закрытия индекса американского доллара DXY или "Дикси". Индикатор рассчитывается из взвешенных значений 6 основных символов: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDSEK и USDCHF. Помимо значений "Дикси", индикатор также показывает скользящую среднюю. Вы можете задать период скользящей средней. Когда бары индикатора пробивают скользящую среднюю, это создает хорошие сигналы для входа в рынок. Как правило, сигналы индикатора надежнее, чем похожие
· 1
Evgeniy Scherbina
Добавил тему На сайте есть индекс USDX, есть ли к нему программный доступ из МТ5?
Я знаю, как посчитать из 6 символов. Но может он просто доступен, я и не знал
9
Evgeniy Scherbina
Выставил продукт
Индикатор IQuantum показывает торговые сигналы по 10 символам на дневном графике: AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPCHF, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY, USDNOK и USDSEK. Сигналы индикатора генерируются двумя нейронными моделями, которые были обучены независимо друг от друга. В качестве входов для нейронных моделей используются нормализованные цены символов, а также золота, серебра и указатели текущего дня. Каждая нейронная модель была обучена в двух вариантах. Максимальный режим (Ultimate) представляет
Evgeniy Scherbina
So this is it. Gold has broken it. For the first time in history, Gold is exploring the price of over 2100 USD. We are living it, and we should be proud about it? Happy about it? Or worried about it?
The good thing to know is it can't grow endlessly. It must fall. There is no level that is higher than 2100. So no target value to reach and to roll back. It can roll back any day. Any time. Can it roll back today?
The bad thing, or the bad consequence is evident. No one expected it to grow that high. It just broke all indicators. It has made us incur losses and suffer the pain of frustration. It is not fair! Go back, you brick of bright shiny gold! Go back now!
My two advisors - Gold Chaser and Neural Rabbit - both trade Gold. Their neural model for Gold is identical, and it could not foresee the trend beyond 2100 because it has never happened in the history on which it was trained. Clearly, I will have to retrain the model. To avoid that kind of miscalculation in the future, I am going to try the following ways:
1) Extend the training period.
2) Drop the trade-off between a good historical chart and a good performance on the unseen future data. What this means, is I tried with these 2 advisors to accomodate the 2 approaches. I wanted to please those traders who want to be sure it can pass the history well. And I tried to find such values of neural loss which would allow the strategy make correct trading decisions on the unseen future data. That is why it broke. No more trade-offs! Trade-offs don't work! Or else they work until the market spirals out of control.
3) My latest approach is to leave out 75% of training data to avoid repetitions in the training dataset and make it less addicted to such repetitions. The following validation includes a 100% of the dataset, so I can always make sure it is a valid neural model.
We do not succumb to the frustration wrought by the power of the unwinding market! We adapt and we become stronger! Profit will be ours!
The good thing to know is it can't grow endlessly. It must fall. There is no level that is higher than 2100. So no target value to reach and to roll back. It can roll back any day. Any time. Can it roll back today?
The bad thing, or the bad consequence is evident. No one expected it to grow that high. It just broke all indicators. It has made us incur losses and suffer the pain of frustration. It is not fair! Go back, you brick of bright shiny gold! Go back now!
My two advisors - Gold Chaser and Neural Rabbit - both trade Gold. Their neural model for Gold is identical, and it could not foresee the trend beyond 2100 because it has never happened in the history on which it was trained. Clearly, I will have to retrain the model. To avoid that kind of miscalculation in the future, I am going to try the following ways:
1) Extend the training period.
2) Drop the trade-off between a good historical chart and a good performance on the unseen future data. What this means, is I tried with these 2 advisors to accomodate the 2 approaches. I wanted to please those traders who want to be sure it can pass the history well. And I tried to find such values of neural loss which would allow the strategy make correct trading decisions on the unseen future data. That is why it broke. No more trade-offs! Trade-offs don't work! Or else they work until the market spirals out of control.
3) My latest approach is to leave out 75% of training data to avoid repetitions in the training dataset and make it less addicted to such repetitions. The following validation includes a 100% of the dataset, so I can always make sure it is a valid neural model.
We do not succumb to the frustration wrought by the power of the unwinding market! We adapt and we become stronger! Profit will be ours!
· 1
Evgeniy Scherbina
Hey, guys. I am currently working to create a free indicator which will visualize the trading decisions of my newest advisor "QuantumPip".
Below is the picture of how it may look like. I am still thinking of what could be done. I hope I can publish it this week.
It is going to be based on the same data as the advisor "QuantumPip", but it will be a free indicator, not an advisor by itself. Some users like to see how trading decisions were made.
If you have any comments or suggestions, you are invited to comment here or you can write to me via the messages.
Below is the picture of how it may look like. I am still thinking of what could be done. I hope I can publish it this week.
It is going to be based on the same data as the advisor "QuantumPip", but it will be a free indicator, not an advisor by itself. Some users like to see how trading decisions were made.
If you have any comments or suggestions, you are invited to comment here or you can write to me via the messages.
· 2
Evgeniy Scherbina
ChatGPT is pondering on how to help users understand the concepts of machine learning.
To address this issue, you may consider implementing the following strategies:
- **Educational Materials**: Develop educational materials or presentations that explain the concepts of overfitting, generalization, and the importance of future performance in a simple and accessible way.
- **Comparative Analysis**: Compare the performance of overfit models and properly trained models on real-world data to demonstrate the impact of overfitting on future performance.
- **Risk Assessment**: Discuss the risks associated with overfitting and the potential consequences of basing decisions solely on visually appealing historical charts.
- **Engagement**: Encourage customer engagement by involving them in the model evaluation process and demonstrating the value of robust, generalizable models over visually appealing but overfit models.
To address this issue, you may consider implementing the following strategies:
- **Educational Materials**: Develop educational materials or presentations that explain the concepts of overfitting, generalization, and the importance of future performance in a simple and accessible way.
- **Comparative Analysis**: Compare the performance of overfit models and properly trained models on real-world data to demonstrate the impact of overfitting on future performance.
- **Risk Assessment**: Discuss the risks associated with overfitting and the potential consequences of basing decisions solely on visually appealing historical charts.
- **Engagement**: Encourage customer engagement by involving them in the model evaluation process and demonstrating the value of robust, generalizable models over visually appealing but overfit models.
· 1
Evgeniy Scherbina
Добавил тему Разговор с ChatGPT об улучшении нейронной сети и торговле на Форекс
4 тыс рублей в год за подписку ChatGPT, чтобы все узнать... Жаль, бот сообщает фундаментальные знания, которые она выдает за самую объективную и полную информацию. Конечно, зачем делать машинное обучение. Ведь проще просто спросить, что будет с евро
170
Evgeniy Scherbina
Добавил тему Хочу сделать стратегию с максимально красивым историческим графиком
Пользователи предпочитают стратегии, которые рисуют красивые графики. Ни продавцов, ни тем более покупателей не волнует, что красивая история не зарабатывает на неизвестном периоде. Многие продавцы-разработчики даже не ломают голову из-за какого-то
165
Evgeniy Scherbina
A good pic is better than a thousand words. I have made a pic and I will add words to it to explain it.
Neural networks open possibilities. However, too many users these days do not understand the possibilities.
Neural networks learn prices, fluctuations, patterns... In fact, whatever you feed into a neural network (really - whatever!!), it will learn it. Can I feed random prices? Yes! Can I feed random prices of random symbols? Yes! Can I feed bullshit? Yes! It will learn it.
It will learn it. It is not a problem. The problem arises from learning too much.
Why this post? Because too many users buy bad strategies that show an incredible growth in the historical chart. Too many users do not buy good strategies because they think that a mediocre historical chart will not allow them to make a profit on Forex. Good strategies fall into oblivion, that is to the bottom of the ranking system, which is based on greed and not on analysis or credibility.
So what? Make a real live signal, run it for half a year and show a profit with your good strategy. Prove that it works. Yes, this is what I tried. And they still don't buy, because they found hundreds of strategies that show an incredible growth (from 1k to 1 trillion in several years, literally) in the nice historical chart.
Why this post? I do not want to be a liar. I do not want to sell nice historical charts.
This new strategy "Intraday Rush" shows several levels of accuracy in the training. These levels are defined by the property "Trading pattern". The "reliable" level has a much higher chance to win in the unknown period. While the "ultimate" level, despite the mind-blowing profitability in history, has a much worse chance of winning in the unknown period. This is it. I have written it. I have explained it.
Does the market never repeat itself? Is it true that, from this standpoint, an absolutely unprofitable strategy in history should have the best chance to win in the unknown period? Maybe yes!!!
This is what I think. History has some valuable patterns. A good strategy should try to learn the very basic pattern-like moves from history. Therefore, it should demonstrate profitability in any long period running for at least a year. A good strategy should have drawdowns and wrong trades leading to frustration in some periods. And it should win in other periods. This is what makes a good strategy.
Sometimes users do not want a profit on Forex. They want to buy a hope at this particular moment of their lives and be happy for a few days with that false hope. Yes, I understand it. Switch to the "ultimate" level, this is your false hope. Some users can't stop believing that a nice historical pic will not lead to a profit in the unknown period. Yes, I understand this, too.
Why this post? After months or even years of playing around with so many "nice" strategies out there, come back and read this post again. And switch to the "reliable" trading pattern of "Intraday Rush".
Neural networks open possibilities. However, too many users these days do not understand the possibilities.
Neural networks learn prices, fluctuations, patterns... In fact, whatever you feed into a neural network (really - whatever!!), it will learn it. Can I feed random prices? Yes! Can I feed random prices of random symbols? Yes! Can I feed bullshit? Yes! It will learn it.
It will learn it. It is not a problem. The problem arises from learning too much.
Why this post? Because too many users buy bad strategies that show an incredible growth in the historical chart. Too many users do not buy good strategies because they think that a mediocre historical chart will not allow them to make a profit on Forex. Good strategies fall into oblivion, that is to the bottom of the ranking system, which is based on greed and not on analysis or credibility.
So what? Make a real live signal, run it for half a year and show a profit with your good strategy. Prove that it works. Yes, this is what I tried. And they still don't buy, because they found hundreds of strategies that show an incredible growth (from 1k to 1 trillion in several years, literally) in the nice historical chart.
Why this post? I do not want to be a liar. I do not want to sell nice historical charts.
This new strategy "Intraday Rush" shows several levels of accuracy in the training. These levels are defined by the property "Trading pattern". The "reliable" level has a much higher chance to win in the unknown period. While the "ultimate" level, despite the mind-blowing profitability in history, has a much worse chance of winning in the unknown period. This is it. I have written it. I have explained it.
Does the market never repeat itself? Is it true that, from this standpoint, an absolutely unprofitable strategy in history should have the best chance to win in the unknown period? Maybe yes!!!
This is what I think. History has some valuable patterns. A good strategy should try to learn the very basic pattern-like moves from history. Therefore, it should demonstrate profitability in any long period running for at least a year. A good strategy should have drawdowns and wrong trades leading to frustration in some periods. And it should win in other periods. This is what makes a good strategy.
Sometimes users do not want a profit on Forex. They want to buy a hope at this particular moment of their lives and be happy for a few days with that false hope. Yes, I understand it. Switch to the "ultimate" level, this is your false hope. Some users can't stop believing that a nice historical pic will not lead to a profit in the unknown period. Yes, I understand this, too.
Why this post? After months or even years of playing around with so many "nice" strategies out there, come back and read this post again. And switch to the "reliable" trading pattern of "Intraday Rush".
· 2
Evgeniy Scherbina
Hi, everyone. I finally found a good way to add an intraday trading to the advisor "Intraday Rush". So now it is mostly daily trading (new trades every new day). I am going to add to the new version another timeframe - 2-hours.
It is going to be the same logic, but you will be able to choose between daily and hourly trading. 2h-timeframe has 12 times more trades than daily. It also bring more flexibility of course, because the advisor can react to market fluctuations much faster.
The indicator "IRush" will also be updated! So stay tuned! The new update will be published no later than next week!
It is going to be the same logic, but you will be able to choose between daily and hourly trading. 2h-timeframe has 12 times more trades than daily. It also bring more flexibility of course, because the advisor can react to market fluctuations much faster.
The indicator "IRush" will also be updated! So stay tuned! The new update will be published no later than next week!
· 1
Evgeniy Scherbina
If you are wondering whether I have a MyFXBook page, the answers is: YES!!
myfxbook.com/members/otvazhnii
It has all my best strategies - Neural Rabbit, Gold Chaser etc - updated live. More strategies will be added in the very near future. All in one chart, it is so easy to compare!
If you want to drill down into details, it has lots of nice diagrams and piecharts. Profit per month, missed profit and more. Go check it out!
myfxbook.com/members/otvazhnii
It has all my best strategies - Neural Rabbit, Gold Chaser etc - updated live. More strategies will be added in the very near future. All in one chart, it is so easy to compare!
If you want to drill down into details, it has lots of nice diagrams and piecharts. Profit per month, missed profit and more. Go check it out!
· 3
Evgeniy Scherbina
Выставил продукт
Советник Neural Rabbit ("нейронный кролик") торгует одновременно несколько символов в автоматическом режиме: AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY, а также Золото, Серебро, Биткойн и Нефть. Советник использует рекуррентную нейронную сеть для анализа данных разных графиков. В качестве входов я использования изменения цен и значения индикаторов. Советник использует 4 стратегии: 1 сеть (решения "бай" или "селл") и 2 сети (решения "бай" или неопределенность и "селл" или неопределенность)
Evgeniy Scherbina
Gold Chaser 95$ down from 385$
Intraday Rush 95$ down from 385$
Neural Rabbit 85$ down from 215$
Tokyo 85$ down from 215$
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!
End of Year Sale!!
Limited Time Only!!
Intraday Rush 95$ down from 385$
Neural Rabbit 85$ down from 215$
Tokyo 85$ down from 215$
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!
End of Year Sale!!
Limited Time Only!!
· 1
Evgeniy Scherbina
Hi. I am glad to announce that I have just posted a demo version of my newest strategy "Gold Chaser". It only trades on XAUUSD (Gold) on demo accounts. You can run it live but only on demo accounts.
https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/754992
Hurry up! This offer will not be available forever!
https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/754992
Hurry up! This offer will not be available forever!
· 2