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Nearly fifty public opinion polls on the UK's membership of the European Union (EU) have been published so far since the start of this year, out of which some 60% have shown support for the 'Remain' camp. A poll by YouGov published on Thursday showed

EUR/JPY has this week retested 12-month lows around 122 – sharply lower than the highs above 140 reached in June 2015, notes BNP Paribas. " We believe these levels represent attractive buying opportunities. There is little rationale for the sharp

There are three reasons why the recent JPY uptrend may be turning: FX valuation, BoJ QE3 and FX flows. Here, we focus on the first two factors while FX flows will be discussed in a subsequent report. The latest JPY rally partly reflected excessive

The euro’s attempt to break higher against the US dollar following the more dovish policy signal form the Fed has failed in the near-term, notes BTMU. " As a result EUR/USD continues to remain range bound. It is consistent with the signal from our

Since the Fed divergence story began, the USD has become positively correlated to risk. However, we think the USD could start behaving like a ‘safe haven’ again due to the recent dovish turn in FOMC rhetoric. The key observation is that when Fed hike

The latest rally in risk has been attributed to abating fears about hard landing in China (where the Q1 GDP numbers came in line with expectations overnight) and the continuing recovery in the global commodity prices. We would argue that another

Flows. Speculators have continued to unwind long USD bets and are less short EUR now; this increases the sensitivity of the cross to any impetus from relative rates. Valuation. Both our PPP and MEVA model suggest the mid 1.20s are ‘fundamentally’

We do not believe the USD has topped, although it may certainly feel like it has judging by the price action over the past few weeks. A dovish Fed, reserve manager diversification away from the USD, and large inflow into the emerging markets have

Reuters reporting on three "European Central Bank sources" ... They say the ECB is unhappy with the U.S. dollar's recent fall But accepts it as a natural consequence of the Federal Reserve's cautious economic outlook Sees no reason to act to weaken

Since Mario Draghi and his ECB Governing Council fellows cut rates last month, added corporate debt to their now €80 billion-a-month bond-purchasing spree and schemed a new long-term loan program for banks, there have been tensions in the European

This weekend’s meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members in Doha is important for currencies because when oil bottomed at the beginning of the year it set a peak for the U.S. dollar. If you recall, the greenback was trading strongly when oil prices hit a

After raising interest rates in December, the Fed said repeatedly that it intends to raise them gradually, and only if economic growth improves. In fact, the Fed expects to raise rates even more gradually today than it did three or six months ago

An unexpected uptick in UK CPI, with core inflation reaching a one-and-a-half year high, provided temporary relief for sterling this past week. However, both the upturn in inflation and the respite for sterling could prove temporary. The uptick in

Last week’s Forex price action was driven primarily by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and a mixed U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Yellen’s comments were especially bearish for the U.S. Dollar against a basket of foreign

Negative interest rates, which central banks in several countries have implemented as a way to spur economic growth, is a radical move. In part two of a three-part series, ‘Negative Thinking,’ commentator Satyajit Das examines this policy and its

In the past three weeks, we have seen a bit of ‘a perfect storm’ against our call for a weak Euro. Hawkish comments from the ECB President Draghi on the limited room the central bank has to further cut the interest rate, a stronger-than-expected Euro

Another month, another strong US jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls grew 215k in March, again far above our 85k estimate of the pace consistent with a stable unemployment rate over the medium term. Other indicators—including household employment and

Wanna steal the non-farm payrolls report to get a trading advantage? Try to do it before its publicly released ... and burgle the right building too. On Monday afternoon, a man was seen creeping along a second-floor ledge of a Bureau of Labor

Goldman Sachs Macro Markets Strategy (Robin Brooks, Silvia Ardagna and Michael Cahill) comments: Last week's speech by Chair Yellen laid out a clear narrative for the Fed's dovish shif t. The narrative goes that market turmoil in Q1, in part because

Both the FX decoupling trade and the global currency war have come to an abrupt end of late, and many clients think this is the result of a coordinated effort by G20 officials to prop up global markets. USD has emerged as the biggest loser of these