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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Published post Positioning ahead of G20
Positioning ahead of G20 Interesting moves from China overnight as G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors meet in Shanghai today and tomorrow...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Euro, US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Inflation Data Talking Points: Euro may find interim support if Germany’s flash CPI data tops forecasts US Dollar may fail to capitalize as core PCE inflation hits 15-month high NZ Dollar gains with milk prices as dairy exports rise most since Aug’14...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Pivot Points-Hourly Last Updated: Feb 26, 11:30 am +03:00 Symbol S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3 EUR/USD 1.10207 1.10383 1.10477 1.10559 1.10653 1.10735 1.10911 USD/JPY 112.366 112.59 112.727 112.814 112.951 113.038 113.262 GBP/USD 1.39327 1.39581 1.39731 1.39835 1.39985 1.40089 1.40343 USD/CHF 0.98654 0...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Dollar Forecast
What was once a consistent and dominant advance for the US Dollar is now a consolidation and debate over fundamental value. The Greenback still stands at the most hawkish end of the monetary policy spectrum, but that premium may already be incorporated. Will risk trends or rate hikes revive the currency in Q4 or is a correction overdue?
Euro Forecast
A period of range for the Euro may soon come to an end as investors cast their focus on the European Central Bank's effort to buttress the region's economy and financial stability. With global headwinds increasing and the Fed backing off its hawkish stance, a countermove for more European stimulus may drive the currency to lows not seen in over a decade.
Yen Forecast
A wide gulf exists between the monetary policy programs in Japan and the United States, and that disparity may resolve USDJPY's congestion. As Japan struggles to reach its 2 percent inflation goal, the probability of an increase to the Bank of Japan's QQE program rises - and the incredible driver of three years of Yen cross appreciation may be revived.
Gold Forecast
Gold has made an unsteady attempt to retrace lost ground amid the Federal Reserve's confusion over its interest rate bearings. An aborted effort to hike rates in 2015 could give the metal a more significant foothold for bulls, but the central bank doesn't seem as discouraged as the market seems to presume they are.
Oil Forecast
Many outsiders to the oil market have been scratching their head as supply continues to outstrip demand. A quick view of production growth into falling prices seems to go against classic market dynamics. However, there's a very simple answer although it may not appear logical at first. Individual producers in the oil field are continuing to drill in order to meet individual debt repayments while subsequent loans are dependent on production.
Equities Forecast
The years of steady advance for global equities to multi-year – and in some cases, record – highs seemed to finally show signs of exhaustion this past year. Heading into 2016, shares may face more than just doubts about the level of lift ahead. Global growth, changes in monetary policy, emerging market troubles and China are prominent risks to sentiment moving forward.
Top Trading Opportunities in 2016
Fundamental and technical gears are changing heading into the New Year. The drive found in diverging monetary policy is waning in the aftermath of large market moves. Ahead, ties to general risk appetite and the contrast in variable speeds of growth look to generate heavy volatility and possibly large price swings. See where the DailyFX Analysts believe the top trades will be in 2016.
What was once a consistent and dominant advance for the US Dollar is now a consolidation and debate over fundamental value. The Greenback still stands at the most hawkish end of the monetary policy spectrum, but that premium may already be incorporated. Will risk trends or rate hikes revive the currency in Q4 or is a correction overdue?
Euro Forecast
A period of range for the Euro may soon come to an end as investors cast their focus on the European Central Bank's effort to buttress the region's economy and financial stability. With global headwinds increasing and the Fed backing off its hawkish stance, a countermove for more European stimulus may drive the currency to lows not seen in over a decade.
Yen Forecast
A wide gulf exists between the monetary policy programs in Japan and the United States, and that disparity may resolve USDJPY's congestion. As Japan struggles to reach its 2 percent inflation goal, the probability of an increase to the Bank of Japan's QQE program rises - and the incredible driver of three years of Yen cross appreciation may be revived.
Gold Forecast
Gold has made an unsteady attempt to retrace lost ground amid the Federal Reserve's confusion over its interest rate bearings. An aborted effort to hike rates in 2015 could give the metal a more significant foothold for bulls, but the central bank doesn't seem as discouraged as the market seems to presume they are.
Oil Forecast
Many outsiders to the oil market have been scratching their head as supply continues to outstrip demand. A quick view of production growth into falling prices seems to go against classic market dynamics. However, there's a very simple answer although it may not appear logical at first. Individual producers in the oil field are continuing to drill in order to meet individual debt repayments while subsequent loans are dependent on production.
Equities Forecast
The years of steady advance for global equities to multi-year – and in some cases, record – highs seemed to finally show signs of exhaustion this past year. Heading into 2016, shares may face more than just doubts about the level of lift ahead. Global growth, changes in monetary policy, emerging market troubles and China are prominent risks to sentiment moving forward.
Top Trading Opportunities in 2016
Fundamental and technical gears are changing heading into the New Year. The drive found in diverging monetary policy is waning in the aftermath of large market moves. Ahead, ties to general risk appetite and the contrast in variable speeds of growth look to generate heavy volatility and possibly large price swings. See where the DailyFX Analysts believe the top trades will be in 2016.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
G20 FINANCE MINISTERS AND CENTRAL BANK GOVERNORS TO MEET IN SHANGHAI THIS WEEKEND The global economy is in a fragile state following a volatile start of the year that has reduced equity valuations and continues to pressure energy prices downward...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
26 February 2016, Time of Writing: 09:00 am Trader Daily Market Update Major Calendar News Time (GMT) Name Country Vol. Prev. Cons. Sentiment 08:00 Spanish Flash CPI y/y EUR Med. -0.3% -0.5% Negative All Day G20 Meetings - High - - - 13:30 Preliminary GDP q/q USD High 0.7% 0...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Crude Oil (WTI) (J6) Intraday: bullish bias above 31.20. Pivot: 31.20 Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 31.20 with targets @ 33.55 & 34.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 31.20 look for further downside with 30.50 & 29.80 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
USD/JPY Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Pivot: 112.50
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 112.50 with targets @ 113.20 & 113.60 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 112.50 look for further downside with 111.95 & 111.30 as targets.
Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Pivot: 112.50
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 112.50 with targets @ 113.20 & 113.60 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 112.50 look for further downside with 111.95 & 111.30 as targets.
Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 0.7210
Most Likely Scenario: long @ 0.7220 with targets @ 0.7255 & 0.7275 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 0.7210 look for further downside with 0.7190 & 0.7160 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
Pivot: 0.7210
Most Likely Scenario: long @ 0.7220 with targets @ 0.7255 & 0.7275 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 0.7210 look for further downside with 0.7190 & 0.7160 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Crude Oil (WTI) (J6) Intraday: bullish bias above 31.20.
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Top Top arrow
Pivot: 31.20
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 31.20 with targets @ 33.55 & 34.20 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 31.20 look for further downside with 30.50 & 29.80 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Prev Prev arrow
Top Top arrow
Pivot: 31.20
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 31.20 with targets @ 33.55 & 34.20 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 31.20 look for further downside with 30.50 & 29.80 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Gold spot Intraday: supported by a rising trend line.
Pivot: 1221.00
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1221.00 with targets @ 1254.00 & 1264.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1221.00 look for further downside with 1207.00 & 1200.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Pivot: 1221.00
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1221.00 with targets @ 1254.00 & 1264.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1221.00 look for further downside with 1207.00 & 1200.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
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Next Next arrow
Pivot: 1.1015
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1015 with targets @ 1.1100 & 1.1140 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.1015 look for further downside with 1.0990 & 1.0955 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is well directed.
Prev Prev arrow
Next Next arrow
Pivot: 1.1015
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1015 with targets @ 1.1100 & 1.1140 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.1015 look for further downside with 1.0990 & 1.0955 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is well directed.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 1.3950
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.3950 with targets @ 1.4050 & 1.4120 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.3950 look for further downside with 1.3900 & 1.3875 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Pivot: 1.3950
Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.3950 with targets @ 1.4050 & 1.4120 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.3950 look for further downside with 1.3900 & 1.3875 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Pivot Points-Daily Last Updated: Feb 26, 12:30 am +03:00 Symbol S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3 EUR/USD 1.08251 1.09143 1.09618 1.10035 1.1051 1.10927 1.11819 USD/JPY 109.368 110.591 111.374 111.814 112.597 113.037 114.26 GBP/USD 1.36446 1.37934 1.38586 1.39422 1.40074 1.4091 1.42398 USD/CHF 0.96955 0...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Is The Dollar Dominance Fading? Talking Points: US Dollar Technical Strategy: US DOLLAR May Retest 11,850 Probability of Fed Hike Is Vanishing Alongside US Dollar Bulls Recent Fed Commentary on Uncertainty Pushes Down Treasury Yield & US Dollar...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
FTSE 100 Maintains A Bearish Bias Talking Points The FTSE 100 is bearish below the February 23 high of 6036 and traders will most likely see a corrective move as an opportunity to short-sell. This week’s soft PMIs (Services and Manufacturing) should keep the FTSE 100 soft...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Support & Resistance-Indexes Last updated: Feb 25, 3:23 pm +03:00 S - Strong | M - Moderate...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Support & Resistance-Update Last updated: Feb 25, 3:23 pm +03:00 S - Strong | M - Moderate...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Pivot Points-Hourly Last Updated: Feb 25, 4:30 pm +03:00 Symbol S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3 EUR/USD 1.09921 1.1013 1.10237 1.10339 1.10446 1.10548 1.10757 USD/JPY 111.871 112.15 112.292 112.429 112.571 112.708 112.987 GBP/USD 1.38846 1.39303 1.39566 1.3976 1.40023 1.40217 1.40674 USD/CHF 0.9868 0.98869 0...
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Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra
Risk Markets Steady as Traders Digest US Data, ’Brexit’ Headlines Talking Points: - EUR/USD retest of August-October 2014 TL holds as support. - Gold breakout stunted; SPX500 aims for breakout above 1945/50. - Risk management is the cornerstone of long-term success in trading - learn more...
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